Leveraging the Latest Housing Market Trends

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As the housing market shifts from a distressed market to a market in recovery, real estate agents and other real estate professionals should be looking ahead to how they can leverage those shifting trends. This presentation provides information about what those trends are and also insight on how to leverage them for your business.

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  • RealtyTrac started 1996.Track over 100 million properties nationwide.
  • U.S. & State Foreclosure Starts Apr05-May13
  • 12 Million in 201211 Million in 2013
  • Leveraging the Latest Housing Market Trends

    1. 1. LEVERAGING THE LATEST HOUSING MARKET TRENDS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC WELCOME
    2. 2. WHAT WE’LL COVER TODAY • A brief bit on RealtyTrac • How long will the short sale surge last? • The problem and opportunity of zombie foreclosures • The incredible disappearing REOs • Flipping and institutional investors • Home prices buoying underwater inventory • Boomerang buyers boomeranging more quickly © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    3. 3. REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER Economic Neighborhood & Local MLS Sales & Loan Valuation & Prop Details Foreclosure © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    4. 4. REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER County-Level Public Documents • Pre-foreclosure, foreclosure auction and REO • Sales & Loan • Valuation and property characteristics MLS • Listing status, price and other info • Property description and more characteristics Publicly available datasets • Neighborhood features, amenities, red flags • Macro housing and economic metrics © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    5. 5. HOW LONG WITH THE SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac
    6. 6. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC June foreclosure starts at lowest level since December 2005
    7. 7. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Seriously underwater means mortgage amount is at least 25 percent higher than estimated market value
    8. 8. HOW LONG WILL THE SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC 1.5 million fewer underwater in last year
    9. 9. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Distressed median prices still flat lining
    10. 10. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Average Annual Pct Change YTD in 2013 is 7 percent – will take 3.5 more years at minimum to get all seriously underwater borrowers back with positive equity
    11. 11. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Up 53 percent compared to year ago in Q2 2013 At pace of 700,000 short sales a year it would still take more than 15 years to sell off all of the 11.3 million seriously underwater homes
    12. 12. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    13. 13. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST? • Other considerations that could slow short sales – Rising home prices give lenders hope to hold out for REO – Rising home prices give homeowners hope to hold on • But these homeowners could be future equity sales – Top 5 lenders less motivated to do short sales as they fulfill requirements under the national mortgage settlement – Expiration of Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    14. 14. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 1 © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Foreclosure Inventory and Prices Historical Foreclosure Discounts 1. Know your market
    15. 15. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 1 © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Local, state and national foreclosure rates Recent default, auction and REO trends
    16. 16. WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    17. 17. WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING YoY Pct Increases: • Maryland: 365% • Connecticut: 47% • New York: 36% • New Jersey: 27% • Oregon: 59,200%
    18. 18. WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC YoY Pct Increases: • Florida: 100% • Arkansas: 71% • Illinois: 65% • Wisconsin: 45% • Washington: 21%
    19. 19. WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING • Why are foreclosure starts and auctions rebounding? – Pent-up foreclosure activity from robo-signing, national mortgage settlement and state legislation/court rulings – Rising prices may be helping to motivate foreclosure • What are implications for real estate agents? – Clock is now ticking on delinquent homeowners – Auctions another source of finding distressed buyers/sellers in the form of investors © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    20. 20. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED MARKET TRENDS TIP NO. 2 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2013, Not for Distribution Filter by property value and characteristics Filter by property type Filter by equity/LTV Filter by lender name and auction date Filter by listing status and bankruptcy status Target potential short sale listings with advanced search filters
    21. 21. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 2 © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Create mailing lists of distressed homeowners in default or scheduled for foreclosure auction
    22. 22. THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    23. 23. THE PROBLEM AND OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    24. 24. THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    25. 25. THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    26. 26. THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES • The problem – More than 167,000 vacant homes nationwide, 20 percent of all homes in the foreclosure process – Homeowners often don’t realize they still own the property and are responsible for taxes etc. • The opportunity – Homeowners who have exhibited a desire to let go of the property – Lenders who don’t want to foreclose © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    27. 27. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 3 © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Identify homeowners who have vacated their homes and get new mailing addresses
    28. 28. THE INCREDIBLE DISAPPEARING REOS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    29. 29. THE INCREDIBLE DISAPPEARING REOS U.S. REOs dropped to a 72-month low in April 2013
    30. 30. THE INCREDIBLE DISAPPEARING REOS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    31. 31. THE SHIFT IS ON © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    32. 32. THE INCREDIBLE DISAPPEARING REOS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Nationwide Deeds in Lieu of Foreclosure increased 39 percent in 2012 from 2011
    33. 33. THE INCREDIBLE DISAPPEARING REOS • REOs are down but not out – Recent rise in foreclosure starts and scheduled foreclosure auctions in some markets will translate into bank repossessions in the next 6 to 12 months – Rising home prices mean banks may be willing to tackle the increasingly costly and complex REO process to get a higher price out of a property down the road © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    34. 34. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 4 © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Find unlisted bank-owned homes
    35. 35. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    36. 36. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS U.S. property flips increased 17 percent from a year ago in the second quarter
    37. 37. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    38. 38. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    39. 39. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC U.S. institutional investor purchases increased 16 percent from year ago in Q2
    40. 40. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
    41. 41. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 5 © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Find repeat investor clients by attending foreclosure auctions and order lists of the most active institutional investors in your market.
    42. 42. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS TIP NO. 5 © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Find repeat investor clients and other buyers by showing up as the local expert when they are searching for auctions or other properties.
    43. 43. HOME PRICES BUOYING UNDERWATER INVENTORY © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac
    44. 44. HOME PRICES BUOYING UNDERWATER INVENTORY 4.5 million homes nationwide would transition from short sales to equity sales with 10 percent increase in home prices; 8.3 million with a 20 percent rise
    45. 45. © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Annualized residential sales above 5 million for nine consecutive months ending in June
    46. 46. LEVERAGING DISTRESSED TRENDS BONUS TIP © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC Establishing a relationship with a distressed homeowner may not always lead to a distressed sale today; in today’s market it could very likely lead to a non-distressed sale tomorrow.
    47. 47. BOOMERANG BUYERS © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac
    48. 48. BOOMERANG BUYERS BOOMERANGING MORE QUICKLY • The News – HUD just recently changed its guidelines to allow some homeowners who have gone through foreclosure, short sale or bankruptcy to qualify for FHA financing. – Now these homeowners can qualify for FHA financing as soon as 12 months after the “last event” – This is down from a minimum of 36 months • The Opportunity – Reach out to your list of homeowners who have sold via short sale in the last year-plus to see if they are interested in buying. – Get lists of homeowners who have lost their home to foreclosure in your area in the last year-plus
    49. 49. BOOMERANG BUYERS BOOMERANGING MORE QUICKLY © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC 4.6 million completed foreclosures and short sales from 2007 to 2010. Additional 2.4 million completed foreclosures and short sales in 2011 and 2012

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