And I thought that Waldemar Kaempffert's 1956 article on CO2 and climate was prescient. This one came three years earlier. Both pieces center on the work of Gilbert Plass. Here's a link to a Dot Earth post on Plass, with more on the 1956 piece, as well:
Pioneering Greenhouse Analyst Appraised http://nyti.ms/VBCHax
And I thought that Waldemar Kaempffert's 1956 article on CO2 and climate was prescient. This one came three years earlier. Both pieces center on the work of Gilbert Plass. Here's a link to a Dot Earth post on Plass, with more on the 1956 piece, as well:
Pioneering Greenhouse Analyst Appraised http://nyti.ms/VBCHax
Climate: Climatic Change - Evidence, Cycles and The Futuregeomillie
A PowerPoint used in class to cover the key forms of evidence you need to know for the Exam. Key Questions are likely to be focused on how we can gain information of past climatic change, and how it can be used to predict future, and I would expect you to be able to comment on the usefulness of the different types. For instance, Ice cores are highly accurate and quantifiable evidence, but gaining them is expensive, and only gives a climatic record for the site at which the snow formed. However, they do provide the longest record of change.
Information about the rapidly changing environment because of the human induced activities like combustion of fossil fuels and emission of the pollutants
James Hansen, NASA GISS live at the Zero Emissions Conference, Melbourne Australia
Sun, 2007-07-01 11:17 — matthew
James Hansen opened the Zero Emissions Conference to a full house at RMIT University yesterday in Melbourne, Australia
The Zero Emission Network and Beyond Zero Emissions have brought together a program of guest speakers from around the world on climate change science, zero emission renewable energy and successful campaigning methods at the Zero Emissions Conference in Melbourne.
James Hansen, speaking via conference link from Sweden, spoke about the latest scientific predictions on climate change.
Dr Hansen's slideshow
Audio now available
"This conference has been very successful, in educating many community leaders on the dangerous levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere now," said Matthew Wright, lead spokesman for Beyond Zero Emissions.
"It was fantastic to hear from energy experts from around the world," said Adrian Whitehead, covenor of Zero Emissions Network. "We need to raise awareness of the environmental crisis the human race is facing, and this weekend was a great start."
The Earth’s climate is dynamic and characterised by trends, aberrations and quasi-periodic oscillations varying over a broad range of time-scales [1], which are governed by external (extraterrestrial systems) and/or internal(ocean, atmosphere and land system). Trends are largely controlled by plate tectonics, and thus to change gradually on million year time scale. Aberrations occur when the certain thresholds are passed and are manifested in the geological record as the unusual rapid (less than a few thousands of years) or extreme change in climate. The quasi-periodic oscillations are mostly astronomically paced; they are driven by astronomical perturbations that affect the earth’s orbit around the sun and the orientation of earth’s rotation axis with respect to its orbital plane. These perturbations are described by the three main astronomical cycles: eccentricity, precession and obliquity, which together determine the spatial and seasonal pattern of insolation received by the earth [2], eventually resulting in climatic oscillations of ten to hundreds of thousands of year [3].Sun being the main source of energy for the earth system controls the climate of it. Variation in solar activity and cosmic ray intensity has direct influence over climatic features such as cloudiness, temperature and rainfall [4]. Volcanic eruptions also force all elements of the climatic systems up to a varying degree but producing long term climatic signals in the ocean. The cumulative volcanic cooling effect at present offsets about one third of anthropogenic warming [5].Other than these causes paleoclimatologists also relates the past climate changes with movement of solar system[6], interplanetary dusts and influence of asteroids[7].However the recent variability in climate what earth is experiencing is unlikely due to any of the individual above factors rather it is due to the compound effect of complex interactions of all the natural as well as anthropogenic forcings.
References:
1. J. C. Zachos, M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, K. Billups, Science 292 (2001) 686-693.
2. G. Kukla, Nature (London) 253, 600 (1975).
3. J. D. Hays, J. Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton, Science 194 (1876) 1121-1132.
4. N. Marsh, H. Swensmark, Space Sci. Rev. 94 (2000) 215-230.
5. T. L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, G. L. Stenchikov, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005) L24709.
6. K. Fuhrer, E. W. Wolf, S. J. Johnsen, J. Geophys. Res. 104(D24) (1999) 31043-31052
7. P. Hut, W. Alvarez, W. P. Elder, T. Hansen, E. G. Kauffman, G. Keller, E. M. Shoemaker & P. R. Weissman, Nature Vol. 329, 10 September, 1987
OSCILLATIONS from ARCTIC WARMING: Record COLD & HOT, RISING SEASPaul H. Carr
WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING.
Record-Cold and Snowfall in New England during 2015 winter.
-Record high sea temps, 11.5 C, put more
water vapor (snow) in the atmosphere.
-Record-Hot West Sees First 100-Degree Temperature of 2015.
- CA 4 yr. drought longest in history.
Wet areas getting wetter: Floods, Snow
Dry areas getting drier: CA Drought, Wildfires.
Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than air temperaure.
Climate: Climatic Change - Evidence, Cycles and The Futuregeomillie
A PowerPoint used in class to cover the key forms of evidence you need to know for the Exam. Key Questions are likely to be focused on how we can gain information of past climatic change, and how it can be used to predict future, and I would expect you to be able to comment on the usefulness of the different types. For instance, Ice cores are highly accurate and quantifiable evidence, but gaining them is expensive, and only gives a climatic record for the site at which the snow formed. However, they do provide the longest record of change.
Information about the rapidly changing environment because of the human induced activities like combustion of fossil fuels and emission of the pollutants
James Hansen, NASA GISS live at the Zero Emissions Conference, Melbourne Australia
Sun, 2007-07-01 11:17 — matthew
James Hansen opened the Zero Emissions Conference to a full house at RMIT University yesterday in Melbourne, Australia
The Zero Emission Network and Beyond Zero Emissions have brought together a program of guest speakers from around the world on climate change science, zero emission renewable energy and successful campaigning methods at the Zero Emissions Conference in Melbourne.
James Hansen, speaking via conference link from Sweden, spoke about the latest scientific predictions on climate change.
Dr Hansen's slideshow
Audio now available
"This conference has been very successful, in educating many community leaders on the dangerous levels of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere now," said Matthew Wright, lead spokesman for Beyond Zero Emissions.
"It was fantastic to hear from energy experts from around the world," said Adrian Whitehead, covenor of Zero Emissions Network. "We need to raise awareness of the environmental crisis the human race is facing, and this weekend was a great start."
The Earth’s climate is dynamic and characterised by trends, aberrations and quasi-periodic oscillations varying over a broad range of time-scales [1], which are governed by external (extraterrestrial systems) and/or internal(ocean, atmosphere and land system). Trends are largely controlled by plate tectonics, and thus to change gradually on million year time scale. Aberrations occur when the certain thresholds are passed and are manifested in the geological record as the unusual rapid (less than a few thousands of years) or extreme change in climate. The quasi-periodic oscillations are mostly astronomically paced; they are driven by astronomical perturbations that affect the earth’s orbit around the sun and the orientation of earth’s rotation axis with respect to its orbital plane. These perturbations are described by the three main astronomical cycles: eccentricity, precession and obliquity, which together determine the spatial and seasonal pattern of insolation received by the earth [2], eventually resulting in climatic oscillations of ten to hundreds of thousands of year [3].Sun being the main source of energy for the earth system controls the climate of it. Variation in solar activity and cosmic ray intensity has direct influence over climatic features such as cloudiness, temperature and rainfall [4]. Volcanic eruptions also force all elements of the climatic systems up to a varying degree but producing long term climatic signals in the ocean. The cumulative volcanic cooling effect at present offsets about one third of anthropogenic warming [5].Other than these causes paleoclimatologists also relates the past climate changes with movement of solar system[6], interplanetary dusts and influence of asteroids[7].However the recent variability in climate what earth is experiencing is unlikely due to any of the individual above factors rather it is due to the compound effect of complex interactions of all the natural as well as anthropogenic forcings.
References:
1. J. C. Zachos, M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, K. Billups, Science 292 (2001) 686-693.
2. G. Kukla, Nature (London) 253, 600 (1975).
3. J. D. Hays, J. Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton, Science 194 (1876) 1121-1132.
4. N. Marsh, H. Swensmark, Space Sci. Rev. 94 (2000) 215-230.
5. T. L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, G. L. Stenchikov, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005) L24709.
6. K. Fuhrer, E. W. Wolf, S. J. Johnsen, J. Geophys. Res. 104(D24) (1999) 31043-31052
7. P. Hut, W. Alvarez, W. P. Elder, T. Hansen, E. G. Kauffman, G. Keller, E. M. Shoemaker & P. R. Weissman, Nature Vol. 329, 10 September, 1987
OSCILLATIONS from ARCTIC WARMING: Record COLD & HOT, RISING SEASPaul H. Carr
WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING.
Record-Cold and Snowfall in New England during 2015 winter.
-Record high sea temps, 11.5 C, put more
water vapor (snow) in the atmosphere.
-Record-Hot West Sees First 100-Degree Temperature of 2015.
- CA 4 yr. drought longest in history.
Wet areas getting wetter: Floods, Snow
Dry areas getting drier: CA Drought, Wildfires.
Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than air temperaure.
My master's thesis project presentation on Transcriptomics of Iron Limitation in Phaeocystis antarctica supervised by Assist. Prof. Ahmed Moustafa (who surprised me with slide 2 :)
using EdGCM (educational global climate modelling) to do climate modelling from the period of 1958 to 2100.
also talk about the impact of climate change with respect to south east asia.
3. Background
In Lecture 1 we examined different types
of climate variability, and we noted that
many aspects of the climate system
operate on different time scales
The problem is to disentangle natural
climate variability from warming due to
enhanced greenhouse effect
4. A. Evidence for climate change:
climate proxies
• Not possible to go back in time so use
evidence remaining from those times,
called ‘proxies’ to interpret palaeoclimate
5. Climate change proxies
• Tree rings – optimal conditions for a particular
species result in more growth therefore thicker
rings; events eg. fire, create scars
6. Climate change proxies
• Ice cores - eg from Lake Vostok, Antarctica or the
Greenland Ice Sheet- gases and pollen trapped
within layers infer past climate
7. Determining Past Climate Change using
Oxygen Isotopes
• Normal oxygen contains 8 protons, 8 neutrons
(O16)
• A small fraction (one in a thousand) of oxygen
atoms contain 8 protons, 10 neutrons (O18)
• This is an isotope of oxygen and is heavier than
O16
• O16 will evaporate more than O18 since it is
lighter
• Hence, during a warm period, the relative
amount of O18 will increase in the ocean waters
since more of the O16 is evaporating
• Hence, looking at the ratio of O16 to O18 in ice
cores the past can give clues about global
temperatures.
8. Climate change proxies
• Oxygen isotopes from micro-organisms found in
deep sea cores: use ratio of O16 and O18
– Foraminifera and diatoms (shelled micro-organisms with shells of
CaCO3)the O isotope ratio found in shell indicates past water temp
since shells use heavier isotopes in warmer conditions
Shelled forams
Diatoms
9. Climate change proxies
• Sediment cores- lake sediment layers indicate
sedimentation rate through time; remains of
micro-organisms and pollen sink to bottom of
lake and preserved in anoxic conditions; indicate
past climate since each species has a limited
habitable range
13. Modern records: good accuracy
and coverage
Variations of globally averaged surface temperature for 1850-2006 relative to 1961-90
Increase of 0.76o
C +/-0.9o
C
Two warmest years are 1998 and 2005
Twelve of the 13 years 1995 to 2007 rank among the 13 warmest years on record
Each of the 1st
8 months of 1998 was warmest of those months in whole record
Houghton p.71
14. Trend of annual mean temperature at Ta
Kwu Ling 1989-2009
Increase 0.07 deg/decade
15. Annual mean temperature at HKO
1948-2009
Increase of 0.16 deg/decade
Increase of 0.28 deg/decade
16. Modern satellites
• Only 30-40 years
record
Global av. sea level from tide gauge and satellite data (red) relative to 1961-90 mean
Over 20th
century sea level rose by 17+/-5cm
Rate of rise increased to 3.1cm for decade 1993-2003
- half of this due to thermal expansion of ocean, rest due to melting of glaciers
18. Combination of data proxies: indicates
natural climate variability vs. recent change
19. B. Climate in earth’s history
Life appeared on earth when climate warmed at end of
Pre-Cambrian period ca. 570Mya
Phanerozoic (age of visible life) is the present period,
Jurassic period of dynosaurs (approx. 100m ya) was a
warm period of Mesozoic, when atm. CO2
5 times higher
than today and no polar icecaps
Then, a 65m yr transition to colder conditions,
culminating in glaciation of Antarctica 35m yr ago
accompanied by falling atm CO2 levels,
Over the last 2.5Ma, (Pleistocene)ice ages have
alternated with warmer periods and >80% of time colder
than today
21. Past climate change: recent
We are at ‘0’ on lower graph-
so we are currently in an ‘Ice-
House’ world. Both poles still
glaciated- rare in history of
earth. Significant because of
potential melting. Also large
temperature gradient (+30 to
-35º) gives us a dynamic
climate system.
Life appeared Hominidsdynosaurs
22. Pleistocene Ice Ages
Between 2.5m and 1m years ago, ice
ages occurred every 40k yrs
Last 1 million years, ice ages every
100k yrs
Due to changes in earth’s orbit related
to sun
23. Last
Glacial
Maximum
20ka ago
All of Canada
Greenland
UK
Last 10k yrs (Holocene) is a warm interglacial
End of last ice age, temperatures rose by 6º in less
than 4000 yrs, sea level rose 120m, atmospheric
CO2 inc, by 1/3 and methane doubled
24. Asian shelf at Last Glacial
Maximum (LGM) (18,000 ya)
Artemisia grassland in semi-arid environment
26. The Holocene
Holocene (interglacial)- climate not constant
Ancient civilisations developed in Holocene
Climatic Optimum 3000BC
Cooling cycles have occurred, with global
mean temperatures cooling by 2ºC
Influence on civilisations eg. 2000Ya
collapse of many classical civilisations eg.
Egyptian Kingdom
Mediaeval warm period followed by “Little
Ice Age” (Mediaeval Cold Period)
28. Summary
• Although we are at a cool period in the long-
term graph we are at a warm period of the
Pleistocene (short term – last 2m. Yrs)
• Warming of 4-7ºC since LGM ten times
slower than 20th
century warming
• For last 150 years of reliable data records,
the 12 warmest years occurred since 1996
29. Mediaeval Warm period 1000yr ago
Selection of
temperature
reconstructions –
more available in
later period
Black
line=instrumental
record
30. Little Ice age 1500-1700 AD
• Norse colonies on Greenland collapsed
• Famine, mass migrations in Europe
• Ice fairs on R. Thames
http://trickygirl.wordpress.com/2009/12/01/the-little-ice-age-and-londons-frost-fairs/
31. Little Ice Age: Burroughs p.285-6
• Exceptional cold of 1690s killed half
population of Finland – short summers
destroyed crops
• Scotland- oats harvest failed and death
rate 1/3 – 2/3 of population: Union of
Scotland with England 1707 inevitable
• Irish famine in 1845 population of 8 million
(1.5 million died and 1 million emigrated)
due to wet climate and summer of 1845
especially wet with high humidity – ideal
conditions for potato blight to spread
32. Obama’s State of the Union
address 21.01.15
• “2014 was the planet's warmest year on record. Now, one year
doesn't make a trend, but this does -- 14 of the 15 warmest years on
record have all fallen in the first 15 years of this century.
• I've heard some folks try to dodge the evidence by saying they're
not scientists; that we don't have enough information to act. Well,
I'm not a scientist, either. But you know what -- I know a lot of really
good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities.
The best scientists in the world are all telling us that our
activities are changing the climate, and if we do not act
forcefully, we'll continue to see rising oceans, longer, hotter
heat waves, dangerous droughts and floods, and massive
disruptions that can trigger greater migration, conflict, and
hunger around the globe. The Pentagon says that climate change
poses immediate risks to our national security. We should act like
it.”
