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Public opinion landscape state of the union - jan 20
- 1. J a n u a r y 2 0 , 2 0 1 5 ! The Public’s Take – The State of the Union"
- 2. PAGE 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS! 1. A l o o k b a c k a t 2 0 1 4 … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ! 2. P e r c e p t i o n s o f E c o n o m i c C o n d i t i o n s / V i e w s o f t h e F u t u r e … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … ! 3. P e r c e p t i o n s o f O b a m a & C o n g r e s s … … … … … … … … … . . ! 4. P e r c e p t i o n s o f P o l i c y I s s u e s M o v i n g F o r w a r d … … … … . ! SLIDE! 3 ! ! 11 ! 1 6 ! 2 6 !
- 3. PAGE 3!The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015! Y E A R I N R E V I E W !
- 4. PAGE 4! Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com! 79.4! 78.3! 83.9! 81.7! 82.2! 86.4! 90.3! 93.4! 89! 94.1! 91! 92.6! Jan-14! Feb-14! Mar-14! Apr-14! May-14! Jun-14! Jul-14! Aug-14! Sep-14! Oct-14! Nov-14! Dec-14! U.S. Consumer Confidence! 2014: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET!
- 5. PAGE 5! Indicator" Then (January 2014)! Now (December 2014)! Unemployment Rate! 6.6%! 5.6% ! Inflation Rate! 1.6%! 1.3%! Stock Market (DJIA)! 16,425.1! 18,053.71! Consumer Confidence Index! 79.4! 92.6! U.S. Interest Rates! .25%! .25%! Consumer Price Index (CPI)! 234.59! 237.03! Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/ ! THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS!
- 6. PAGE 6! PLUNGING OIL PRICES AND PRICE AT THE PUMP! Source: New York Mercantile Exchange; American Automobile Association!
- 7. PAGE 7! Compared with other years, do you think that 2014 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States? ! One of the best" Above average " About average" Below average" One of the worst" 1% ! 13% (+7)" 33% (+10)" 34% (-10)" 18% (-8)" Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll! End of 2014"Beginning of 2014" THE YEAR IN REVIEW: PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY! 63%" 64%" 25%" 26%" 61%" 51%" 0%! 20%! 40%! 60%! 80%! 100%! Country on Wrong Track! Economy is Getting Worse*! Economy is Bad*!
- 8. End of 2014"Beginning of 2014" PAGE 8! THE YEAR IN REVIEW: PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA! Source: NBC/WSJ survey ! 43%" 45%" 39%" 46%" 44%" 37%" 35%! 40%! 45%! 50%! Overall Job Approval Rating! Job Approval on the Economy! Job Approval on Foreign Policy!
- 9. PAGE 9 Source: Gallup Poll Data! Obama Approval, Highest and Lowest Weekly Averages! OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL SETTLES INTO NARROW RANGE THROUGHOUT 2014! Highest weekly average" Lowest weekly average" Range" %! %! (pct. pts)! 2014! 45! 40! 5! 2013! 54! 40! 14! 2012! 57! 44! 13! 2011! 51! 40! 11! 2010! 51! 43! 8! 2009! 67! 49! 18!
- 10. PAGE 10! AFTER 6 YEARS OF BEING VIEWED AS THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM, THE ECONOMY MOVES TO SECOND! Top ranked issue" Second ranked issue" Third ranked issue" Fourth ranked issue" 2014! Government (18%)! Economy (17%)! Unemployment (15%)! Healthcare (10%)! 2013! Economy (22%)! Government (20%)! Unemployment (16%)! Healthcare (10%)! 2012! Economy (31%)! Unemployment (25%)! Government (13%)! Federal deficit/debt (10%)! 2011! Economy (30%)! Unemployment (29%)! Government (12%)! Federal deficit/debt (12%)! 2010! Economy (29%)! Unemployment (27%)! Healthcare (13%)! Government (12%)! 2009! Economy (40%)! Unemployment (16%)! Healthcare (15%)! Government (7%)! 2008! Economy (39%)! Iraq (18%)! Gas prices (10%)! Healthcare (8%)! 2007! Iraq (33%)! Healthcare (10%)! Immigration (9%)! Government (8%)! 2006! Iraq (26%)! Immigration (10%)! Government (9%)! Economy (9%)! 2005! Iraq (22%)! Economy (11%)! Government (8%)! Terrorism (8%)! 2004! Iraq (22%)! Economy (19%)! Unemployment (14%)! Terrorism (14%)! 2003! Economy (27%)! Iraq (17%)! Unemployment (12%)! Terrorism (10%)! 2002! Terrorism (24%)! Economy (22%)! Iraq (9%)! Unemployment (7)! 2001! Economy (14%)! Terrorism (10%)! Ethics/moral decline (9%)! Education (9%)! Source: Gallup Poll, annual averages of monthly results!
- 11. P E R C E P T I O N S O F E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S / V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E ! PAGE 11!The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015!
- 12. PAGE 12! Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 20, 2015! The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn’t topped 50 in about a decade! RIGHT DIRECTION 28.4%! WRONG TRACK 61.4%! MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FEEL THE NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK!
- 13. PAGE 13! BUT RIGHT NOW, PLURALITY THINK ECONOMY IS GETTING BETTER; MOST ATTRIBUTE THIS TO RECENT DECREASE IN OIL PRICES! Source: CBS News Poll, January 9-12, 2015! Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?! Do you think the recent decrease in the price of oil has made the U.S. economy better, worse, or has it not had much effect on the U.S. economy?! 17%! 40%! 42%! 30%! 8%! 57%! Worse" No effect" Better" Worse" Same" Better" Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.!
- 14. PAGE 14! A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK ECONOMY HAS BEEN GROWING OVER THE PAST YEAR! Do you think the economy has been growing or shrinking over the past year?! Source: Bloomberg Poll, December 3-5, 2014! Growing" 57%" Shrinking" 36%" Not sure" 7%"
- 15. PAGE 15! BUT THAT GROWTH IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG! Recovering strongly! 16%! Recovering, but not strongly! 66%! Not recovering! 17%! Don't know! 1%! Which of these best describes your opinion: The economy is…! Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
- 16. P E R C E P T I O N S O F O B A M A & C O N G R E S S ! The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015! PAGE 16!
- 17. PAGE 17 Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 20, 2015! APPROVE 46.9%! DISAPPROVE 49.1%! Obama’s Overall Job Approval! OBAMA BEGINS 2015 WITH A JOB APPROVAL RATING IN THE MID 40S! Approve" Disapprove" %! %! Fox! 42" 52! Gallup! 46" 48! CBS! 46" 46! Pew! 47" 48! ABC/WP! 50" 44! NBC/WSJ! 46" 48! Obama Approval – Six New National Polls!
- 18. 69%! 57%! 48%! 46%! 36%! Clinton (1999)! Eisenhower (1959)! Reagan (1987)! Obama (2015)! G.W. Bush (2007)! PAGE 18 Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data! Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in January of Third Year of 2nd Term! Weekly Approval Rating Average! Jan 12 – 18 ! OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL HIGHER THAN HIS PREDECECESSOR HEADING INTO 7 T H YEAR!
- 19. PAGE 19! 45%! 40%! 39%! 34%! 33%! 33%! 51%! 58%! 53%! 57%! 60%! 56%! The economy! Health care! Terrorism! Foreign policy! Immigration! Handling the Islamic extremist group ISIS! Approve! Disapprove! Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?! OBAMA POORLY RATED ON ALL ISSUES! Source: Fox News Poll, January 11-13, 2015!
- 20. PAGE 20! IMPACT OF OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES! March 2009" Dec" 2009" Sept" 2010" Oct" 2011" Oct " 2012" June 2013" Jan" 2015" %! %! %! %! %! %! %! Better! 14! 30! 27! 20! 33! 35! 38" Worse! 15! 24! 32! 38! 35! 35! 28" Not much of an effect! 64! 39! 36! 37! 27! 27! 30" Too soon to tell/DK! 7! 7! 6! 5! 6! 3! 3" Since taking office, Obama’s economic policies have made conditions…! Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
- 21. PAGE 21! SINCE 2012, MORE SEE OBAMA AS NOT TOUGH ENOUGH ON FOREIGN POLICY! 2%! 2%! 2%! 5%! 3%! 5%! 38%! 47%! 41%! 51%! 54%! 55%! 51%! 41%! 42%! 37%! 36%! 37%! 0%! 10%! 20%! 30%! 40%! 50%! 60%! Jun-09! Apr-10! Sep-12! Nov-13! Aug-14! Jan-15! Too tough! Not tough enough! About right! Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015! Is Obama _________ when it comes to foreign policy and national security?! Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.!
- 22. PAGE 22! CONGRESS BEGINS 2015 WITH 16% JOB APPROVAL, AND ALMOST HALF DISAPPROVE OF GOP PLANS ! 40%! 49%! 11%! Approve" Disapprove" DK" Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2015, Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015! As best you can tell, do you approve or disapprove of Republican congressional leaders’ policies and plans for the future?!
- 23. PAGE 23! AMERICANS DIVIDED ON WHICH PARTY SHOULD HAVE MORE INFLUENCE, BUT MAJORITY BELIEVE THE GOP WILL ! Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2015, CBS News Poll, January 9-12, 2015! 9%! 5%! 12%! 29%! 40%! 57%! 43%! Don't know/No Answer! Same/Neither! Barack Obama! Republicans in Congress! Over the next two years, who do you think will have more influence over the direction of the country…?! Who do you want to have more influence over the direction the nation takes in the next year…?!
- 24. MOST AMERICANS LACK CONFIDENCE THAT OBAMA AND CONGRESS CAN WORK TOGETHER; HUGE SHIFT FROM START OF LAST CONGRESS ! How confident are you that President Obama and the Republicans in Congress can work together to solve the country’s problems?! Source: AP Poll, December 4-8, 2014! 48%! 13%! 52%! 86%! Jan-11! Dec-14! Confident! Not Confident! PAGE 24!
- 25. PAGE 25! INCREASED EXPECTATION FOR BICKERING IN THE COMING YEAR! 41%! 53%! 30%! 50%! 30%! 23%! 22%! 50%! 39%! 59%! 39%! 63%! 66%! 71%! Jan-01! Jan-02! Jan-05! Jan-09! Jan-11! Jan-13! Jan-15! Work together more to solve problems! Bicker and oppose one another more than usual! This coming year, do you think Republicans and Democrats in Washington will work together more to solve problems OR do you think they will bicker and oppose one another more than usual?! Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015!
- 26. P E R C E P T I O N S O F P O L I C Y I S S U E S M O V I N G F O R W A R D ! PAGE 26!The Public’s Take: The State of the Union | January 20, 2015!
- 27. PAGE 27! PUBLIC’S POLICY PRIORITIES REFLECT CHANGING CONDITIONS AT HOME AND ABROAD! Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015! 78%! 9%! 67%! 20%! Domestic policy! Foreign policy! 2014! 2015! Obama should focus more on…!
- 28. PAGE 28! ECONOMY, TERRORISM, JOBS RANK HIGH FOR BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS! Source: Pew Research Poll, January 7-11, 2015! Democrats" Top Priority" %! Improving the educational system! 77! Strengthening the nation’s economy! 74! Improving the job situation! 72! Defending the country from terrorism! 71! Dealing with problems of poor & needy! 70! Reducing health care costs! 70! Republicans" Top Priority" %! Defending the country from terrorism! 87! Strengthening the nation’s economy! 75! Reducing the budget deficit! 72! Strengthening the U.S. military! 71! Improving the job situation! 70! Making Social Security system sound! 65!
- 29. PAGE 29! MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE OVER-REGULATION RATHER THAN TOO LITTLE IS THE BIGGER PROBLEM FACING THE US TODAY! Over- regulation! 54%! Too little regulation! 38%! DK/ NA! 8%! What do you think is the bigger problem in this country – over-regulation that may interfere with economic growth or too little regulation that may create an unequal distribution of wealth?! Source: The New York Times Poll, December 4-7, 2014!
- 30. PAGE 30! MOST AMERICANS WOULD PREFER CHANGES TO THE ACA; MAJORITY SUPPORTS EMPLOYER MANDATE! Source: Fox News Poll, January 11-13, 2015! Yes! 66%! No! 30%! Don't know! 4%! Which one of the following comes closest to what you would like to see lawmakers do with the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare – would you like lawmakers to…?! Do you think people who work thirty hours a week should receive guaranteed health insurance from their employer, or not?! 33%! 27%! 19%! 16%! Repeal it entirely! Repeal parts of the law! Expand it! Leave it as is!
- 31. A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS SUPPORTS POLICY THAT GIVES ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS A PATHWAY TO CITIZENSHIP! Send all back, 17%! Guest worker program, 16%! Pathway to citizenship, 63%! Don't know, 3%! Source: Fox News Poll, December 7-9, 2014! Which of the following comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward illegal immigrants currently in the United States? Should the government…! PAGE 31!
- 32. PAGE 32! A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK OBAMA SHOULD SIGN LEGISLATION APPROVING KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE ! 65%! 22%! Sign! Veto! Do you think President Obama should sign or veto legislation approving the building of the Keystone XL Pipeline that would transport oil from Canada to refineries in the United States! Source: Fox News Poll, January 11-13, 2015!
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