Dr Digby Race describes the Climate change adaptation, energy futures, and carbon economies in remote Australia project, which is part of the Regional Economies program.

1. Climate Change Adaptation,
Energy Futures & Carbon
Economies in Remote Australia
Principal Research Leader
Digby Race
(commenced May 2012)

2. Research questions

3. Research questions
1. What options are there for remote communities to
adapt to climate change, that also enhance their
livelihoods?

4. Research questions
1. What options are there for remote communities to
adapt to climate change, that also enhance their
livelihoods?
2. How can remote communities transition to
renewable energy, that enhances their livelihoods?

5. Research questions
1. What options are there for remote communities to
adapt to climate change, that also enhance their
livelihoods?
2. How can remote communities transition to
renewable energy, that enhances their livelihoods?
3. What economic opportunities can be developed in a
‘carbon’ economy (eg. ‘carbon farming’) for remote
communities?

6. Research methods
• Synthesis of current knowledge & initiatives;
• Develop scenarios of projected change
(low/mid/high change);
• Engage partners & other stakeholders to
analyse scenarios;
• Explore options for ‘preferred futures’ across
social & landscape typologies;
• Document results & engage stakeholders to
transfer results to maximise positive change.
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7. Achievements to date

8. Achievements to date
1. Workshop conducted with wide range of
partners & stakeholders to confirm interest in
research [Aug. 2011];

9. Achievements to date
1. Workshop conducted with wide range of
partners & stakeholders to confirm interest in
research [Aug. 2011];
2. Workshop summary paper distributed that
outlines scope of research [Dec. 2011];

10. Achievements to date
1. Workshop conducted with wide range of
partners & stakeholders to confirm interest in
research [Aug. 2011];
2. Workshop summary paper distributed that
outlines scope of research [Dec. 2011];
3. Review of relevant literature conducted by
CSIRO (current knowledge, gaps, conclusions)
[May 2012].

11. Review findings: Climate change
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12. Review findings: Climate change
Projections:
• More extreme & variable weather in remote north-central
Australia (eg. hotter, storms, flooding);
• Remote communities vulnerable to climate changes (ie.
high exposure, low adaptive capacity);
• Changes to ecosystems, human health & well-being,
deteriorating infrastructure, higher cost & variable energy
supplies, reduced human mobility, & enterprise viability.
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13. Review findings: Climate change
Projections:
• More extreme & variable weather in remote north-central
Australia (eg. hotter, storms, flooding);
• Remote communities vulnerable to climate changes (ie.
high exposure, low adaptive capacity);
• Changes to ecosystems, human health & well-being,
deteriorating infrastructure, higher cost & variable energy
supplies, reduced human mobility, & enterprise viability.
Knowledge gaps:
• How will different socio-economic groups within remote
communities be affected?
• How can their adaptive capacity be increased?
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14. Projected average temperature changes: 1990 – 2070
(across low, medium & high emission scenarios)
Source: Suppiah et al. (2007) 'Australian climate change projections
derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment
Report.' Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56: 131-152.

15. Recent (2003) & projected days above 35°C at selected
towns under ‘high’ emission scenario.
Town 2003 2040 2080
Alice Springs 89 days 129 days 207 days
Broome 54 163 316
Charleville 65 108 195
Cobar 41 68 144
Halls Creek 156 218 307
Kalumburu 140 262 346
Longreach 115 164 256
Woomera 51 78 135
Source: Suppiah et al. (2007) 'Australian climate change projections
derived from simulations performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment 15
Report.' Australian Meteorological Magazine, 56: 131-152.

16. Review findings: Energy futures
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17. Review findings: Energy futures
Projections:
• Household consumption will rise (eg. use of air-conditioners
to cope with increasing heat), but so will cost of fossil fuels;
• Increasing costs of fossil fuels will reduce human mobility for
remote communities (impacts on employment, education &
health);
• Potential for widespread shift to renewable energy sources,
but constrained by high up-front costs, perceptions of
reliability, availability of skills for maintenance, ‘economies of
scale’.
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18. Review findings: Energy futures
Projections:
• Household consumption will rise (eg. use of air-conditioners
to cope with increasing heat), but so will cost of fossil fuels;
• Increasing costs of fossil fuels will reduce human mobility for
remote communities (impacts on employment, education &
health);
• Potential for widespread shift to renewable energy sources,
but constrained by high up-front costs, perceptions of
reliability, availability of skills for maintenance, ‘economies of
scale’.
Knowledge gaps:
• How can the social acceptability & technical feasibility be
enhanced for renewable energy systems?
• What alternative energies can be utilised to improve
transport access & efficiency?
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19. Review findings: Carbon economies
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20. Review findings: Carbon economies
Projections:
• Long-term carbon sequestration required (CC mitigation);
• AG policy for ‘carbon’ trading from mid-2012, leading to
changes to carbon-emitting businesses;
• Vegetation management has scope for long-term carbon
storage (potential business opportunity);
• Altered fire regimes in savannah vegetation has potential as
a ‘carbon farming’ business.
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21. Review findings: Carbon economies
Projections:
• Long-term carbon sequestration required (CC mitigation);
• AG policy for ‘carbon’ trading from mid-2012, leading to
changes to carbon-emitting businesses;
• Vegetation management has scope for long-term carbon
storage (potential business opportunity);
• Altered fire regimes in savannah vegetation has potential as
a ‘carbon farming’ business.
Knowledge gaps:
• How can ‘carbon farming’ options lead to viable businesses
for remote communities?
• How will changes in carbon pricing affect ‘carbon farming’
businesses?
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22. Potential partners
• CSIRO,
• Centre for Appropriate Technology (CAT),
• Charles Darwin University (CDU),
• Curtin University (CU),
• University of South Australia (UniSA),
• Central Land Council (CLC),
• Power & Water Corp (P&WC),
• Centrefarm,
• Others ....
Please contact: Digby Race
Email: Digby.Race@anu.edu.au
Mobile: 0419 638 406 22

23. Partners of Ninti One