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Extreme Events and Climatic Shifts - Prof. Gerald Kiely, et al - EPA June 2010

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Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland
Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland
Technology
1 of 16
Extreme Events & Climatic Shifts Paul Leahy, Eileen Reilly, Bettina Stefanini, Francis Ludlow, Michael Monk, Jason Harris, Gerard Kiely EPA Climate Change Conference Lansdowne Road, Dublin 30 th June 2010 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University College Cork
Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why extremes matter ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lyrecrompane, Co. Kerry, August 2008. Cork City, November 2009.
Historical anomalies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Historical extremes of cold ,[object Object],Occurrence over time of recorded phenomena in the Gaelic Irish Annals from which low temperatures may be inferred.
Proxies : hydrological variability ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Modern instrumental record ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Recent changes in annual rainfall ,[object Object],[object Object]
Rainfall: seasonal change ,[object Object]
Rainfall: seasonal change 1975+ % change pre-1975 to post-1975 in total rainfall amounts:
Rainfall: extremes ,[object Object]
2008 Rainfall ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Map: Met Éireann, Climatological Note No. 11
Temperature extremes in 20 th century ,[object Object],Trends in the annual 99th percentile daily minimum & maximum air temperature at four locations Trends in the annual 99th percentile daily minimum & maximum air temperature at four locations Annual 99th percentile daily minimum & maximum air temperature at four locations
Causes? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Changing patterns of extremes: results & implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Extreme Events and Climatic Shifts - Prof. Gerald Kiely, et al - EPA June 2010

  • 1. Extreme Events & Climatic Shifts Paul Leahy, Eileen Reilly, Bettina Stefanini, Francis Ludlow, Michael Monk, Jason Harris, Gerard Kiely EPA Climate Change Conference Lansdowne Road, Dublin 30 th June 2010 Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University College Cork
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  • 10. Rainfall: seasonal change 1975+ % change pre-1975 to post-1975 in total rainfall amounts:
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Editor's Notes

  1. Overall recording density varies. Cold extremes are the most commonly recorded weather extremes.
  2. Multiproxy peat humification rates, testate amoebae, NPP.... But… considerable variance between wet periods from different sites. Additional variance appears between different proxy results from the same site
  3. Soil temperatures
  4. stationarity
  5. Valentia
  6. Some other stations: less change