Francisco Lemosa and Pedro Martinsb,c 
(a) Master in Information Systems and Management 
(b) Polytechnic Institute of Coimbra – ISCAC, Portugal 
(c) Operations Research Center (CIO), Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, 
Portugal
Functional structure 
 Pilot School - Aero 
Clube de Coimbra 
 Aeronautic maintenance – 
Industrias Aeronáuticas de Coimbra
Functional structure 
 Fire prevention 
squadron 
 Functional runway – 
landing of Brazil’s 
President, Dilma Roussef
Financial envelope 
 Cost structure: 
 Anual current expense aprox. 150.000,00 € (Financial + 
HR) 
 No income, no landing, parking or fuel supply fees
What’s the problem’s objective? 
Minimize the yearly Municipal financial 
allocation 
300,000 
250,000 
200,000 
150,000 
100,000 
50,000 
000 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 
Q 
Objective Min. Q
Formulation 
Financial Income = Financial outcome  C -> cost of building 
25 years to pay the project 
 Q -> Municipal 
allocation 
 P -> Bank financing 
 l -> European Union 
funding 
 q -> Income from 
investments being 
made 
infrastructure 
 D -> financial cost 
center and HR cost 
 P -> bank debt 
 J -> debt interest 
15 years to execute the project’s 
infrastructure
Formulation – Data – Project stages 
The infrastructures are built 
according to the time sequence 
defined for the 5 stages 
푖 = 
푌푡 
1 푖푓 푡ℎ푒 푖푛푓푟푎푠푡푟푢푐푡푢푟푒 푖푠 푏푢푖푙푡 푎푡 푦푒푎푟 푡 
0 case otherwise 
, i=1,…,9 ; t=1,…,15 
i (Stage) Infras. 
Expected 
income 
value when 
concluded 
1 
Parking 
space lease 12.179,20 
5 
Parking 
space lease 8.752,76 
6 
Parking 
space 
lesase 16.814,38 
9 
Hangars 
space lease 5.376,22 
Total 43.122,56 
1 
Parkin 
g space 
3 
Runwa 
y 
exten. 
2 
Fuel 
supply 4 
Transf. 
of 
safeho. 
5 
Parkin 
g space 
6 
Parkin 
g space 
7 
Access 
to 
runway 
8 
Hangar 
Altern. 
access 
9 
Hangar 
layout
Architecture project for development – 5 
stages with a total of 9 infrastructures 
1st stage: Parking space and fuel 
supply (174.000,00 €) 
2nd stage: runway extension and 
transfer of safe house 
(156.000,00 €) 
3rd stage: Parking space 
(30.300,00 €) 
4th stage: Parking space and 
access to runway 
(114.700,00 €) 
5th stage: Hangar alternative 
access and hangar layout 
(137.450,00 €)
Bank financing constraints 
t 
[year 
] 
풇풕[€] (Min. 
Loan 
amount) 
푭풕 [€] (Max. 
Loan 
amount) 
휸풕 [%] 
(interest 
rate) 
푴풕 [year] 
(maturity) 
1 0 60000,00 8 10 
2 0 60000,00 8 10 
3 0 60000,00 8 10 
4 0 60000,00 8 10 
5 0 60000,00 8 10 
6 0 60000,00 8 10 
7 0 60000,00 8 10 
8 0 60000,00 8 10 
9 0 60000,00 8 10 
10 0 60000,00 8 10 
11 0 60000,00 8 10 
12 0 60000,00 8 10 
13 0 60000,00 8 10 
14 0 60000,00 8 10 
15 0 60000,00 8 10 
(sum of debt payment 
equals the loan’s 
amount) 
10 
푗=1 
푗 = 푃푡 푡 = 1, 2, … 15 
푋푡
Scenario results - Initial scenario(5.1.1) 
Income side 
Income 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 Pt + Q 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
2 Pt + 24/52xQ l +q l 1 1 1 1 0 0 
3 23/25 x Q q l l l +q l +q 1 0 1 
4 22/25 x Q q q q l 0 l +q 
5 21/25 x Q q q q 0 q 
6 to 14 … q q q 0 q 
15 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 
16 10/25 x Q q q q l 
17 to 24 … q q q q 
25 1/25 x Q q q q q
Scenario results - Initial scenario(5.1.1) 
Cost side 
퐷푡 = 
4 
푘=1 
퐷푘푡 (1 + Ω푖 )푡−푡푘푖 
푘 = 1, 2 … , 4 푡푘푖 
k Human 
resource 
expenses 
≤ 푡 ≤ 푡푘푖 
푫풌풕[€] 
(initial 
value) 
풕풌풊 
+ Δ푡푘 −1 
[year] 
(starting 
year of 
expense) 
Δ풕풌[year] 
(ending year 
of expense) 
Ω풌[%] 
(increase 
rate) 
1 Air trafic 
controller 
26.200,00 1 25 1,5 
2 Air trafic 
controller being 
retired in five 
years 
8.610,00 1 5 1,5 
3 Airfield director 
(one year 
contract) 
9.804,00 1 1 0 
4 Financial costs 110.192,82 1 25 1,5 
Cost 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 1 
2 
푫풕 + 푪풕 + 
DEBT+ 
INTEREST 1 1 1 1 
3 
푫풕 + 푪풕 
+DEBT+ 
INTEREST 1 1 
4 푫풕 
5 푫풕 
6 to 14 
푫풕 
15 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 
16 푫풕 
17 to 24 푫풕 
25 푫풕 
(debt payment) 
푗−1 
푡=1 
(interests) 
푗 푗 = 2, … 25 훾푡 푃푡 − 
푋푡 
푡+1 
푗−푡≤10 
푗 푡 = 1, 2, … 15 
푋푡
Formulation – Sustainability constraint 
Sustainability constraint at the end of the planning horizon (t = 25) adds up to: the 
sum of every income plus Z must be larger than the expenses: 
9 
푖 =1 
15 
푗=1 
푖 + 푍 ≥ 퐷25 
휃푖푌푗 
Z being positive is commonly known as deficit .
Scenario results Initial scenario(5.1.1) 
Income 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 Pt + Q 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
2 Pt + 
24/52xQ 
l +q l 1 1 1 1 0 0 
3 23/25 x Q q l l l +q l +q 1 0 1 
4 22/25 x Q q q q l 0 l +q 
5 21/25 x Q q q q 0 q 
6 to 14 … q q q 0 q 
15 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 
16 10/25 x Q q q q l 
17 to 24 … q q q q 
25 1/25 x Q q q q q 
Cost 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 
푫풕 + 푪풕 1 1 
2 
푫풕 + 푪풕 + 
DEBT+ 
INTEREST 1 1 1 1 
3 
푫풕 + 푪풕 
+DEBT+ 
INTEREST 1 1 
4 푫풕 
5 푫풕 
6 to 14 
푫풕 
15 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 
16 푫풕 
17 to 24 푫풕 
25 푫풕
Scenario results 
Initial scenario(5.1.1) 
Q [€] SQ[€] (Total 
allocation) 
SRI [€] (Total 
income from 
investment) 
NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of 
expenses) 
SP [€] (Total 
loans) 
SJ [€] (Total 
interest paid) 
Z [€] 
(Deficit) 
250.744,37 3.259.676,78 998.621,86 121.234,73 4.154.545,59 113.562,45 11.023,52 151.851,36 
194973.920 
300000.000 
250000.000 
200000.000 
150000.000 
100000.000 
50000.000 
.000 
-50000.000 
-100000.000 
-150000.000 
-200000.000 
Financial evolution 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 
Cash flow operacional RI Despesa
Scenario evolution 
Cost decrease(5.1.2) 
k Human 
resource 
expenses 
푫풌풕[€] (initial value) 풕풌풊 
[year] (starting year 
of expense) 
Δ풕풌[year] 
(ending year 
of expense) 
Ω풌[%] 
(increase 
rate) 
1 Air trafic 
controller 
26.200,00 1 25 1,5 
2 Air trafic 
controller being 
retired in five 
years 
8.610,00 1 5 1,5 
3 Airfield director 
(one year 
contract) 
9.804,00 1 1 0 
4 Financial costs 110.192,82 1 25 -10
Scenario results Reduction of expenses(5.1.2) 
Income 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 Pt + Q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
2 Pt +24/25 x Q 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
3 Pt + 23/25 x Q l +q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
4 Pt + 22/25 x Q q 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
5 Pt + 21/25 x Q q l 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 
6 Pt + 20/25 x Q q l 1 1 0 1 0 0 
7 Pt + 19/25 x Q q l l +q 1 l 0 1 
8 Pt +18/25 x Q q q l +q 0 l +q 
9 
Pt +18/25 x Q 
q q q 0 q 
10 to 14 Pt + (…) q q q 0 q 
15 Pt + 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 
16 10/25 x Q q q q l 
17 9/25 x Q q q q q 
18 to 24 (…) q q q q 
25 1/25 x Q q q q q 
Cost 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 푫풕 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
2 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
3 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
4 푫풕+ 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
5 푫풕+ 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 
6 푫풕+ 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 1 0 1 0 0 
7 푫풕+ 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 1 
8 푫풕+DEBT+ INTEREST 0 
9 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 0 
10 to 14 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 0 
15 푫풕+ 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 
16 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 
17 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 
18 to 24 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 
25 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST
Scenario results 
Reduction of expenses(5.1.2) 
Q [€] SQ[€] (Total 
allocation) 
SRI [€] (Total 
income from 
investment) 
NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of 
expenses) 
SP [€] (Total 
loans) 
SJ [€] (Total 
interest 
paid) 
Z [€] 
(Deficit) 
107.220,96 1.393.872,42 845.854,84 189.979,72 1.864.637,23 617.193,30 282.360,40 3.120,10 
46242.663 
200000.000 
150000.000 
100000.000 
50000.000 
.000 
-50000.000 
-100000.000 
-150000.000 
Financial evolution 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 
Cash flow operacional RI Despesa
Scenario evolution 
3 years of re-adjustment + 10 years no cost 
increase + 12 cost increase (5.1.3) 
k Human resource 
expenses 
푫풌풕[€] (initial 
value) 
풕풌풊[year] (starting 
year of expense) 
Δ풕풌[year] 
(ending year 
of expense) 
Ω풌[%] 
(increase 
rate) 
1ATIA 26200 1 3 -0,015 
2ATIA to be retired 8610 1 3 -0,015 
3BBMA director 9804 1 3 -0,015 
4 Financial cost center 110192,8 1 3 -0,1 
5ATIA 25038,6 4 10 0 
6ATIA to be retired 8228,33 4 2 0 
7BBMA director 9369,4 4 10 0 
Financial cost center 80330,56 4 10 0 
8 
9ATIA 25038,6 14 12 0,01 
10BBMA director 9369,4 14 12 0,01 
11 Financial cost center 80330,56 14 12 0,01
Scenario evolution 
Bank financing constraints(5.1.3) 
t [year] 
풇풕[€] (Min. Loan 
amount) 
푭풕 [€] (Max. Loan 
amount) 
휸풕 [%] (interest 
rate) 
푴풕 [year] 
(maturity) 
1 0 60000 0,08 10 
2 0 60000 0,08 10 
3 0 60000 0,08 10 
4 0 60000 0,07 10 
5 0 80000 0,06 10 
6 0 80000 0,055 10 
7 0 80000 0,055 10 
8 0 90000 0,05 10 
9 0 80000 0,055 10 
10 0 80000 0,055 10 
11 0 100000 0,05 10 
12 0 80000 0,06 10 
13 0 80000 0,055 10 
14 0 60000 0,07 10 
15 0 60000 0,075 10
Scenario results 
(5.1.3) 
Income 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 Pt + Q 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
2 Pt +24/25 x Q l +q 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 
3 Pt + 23/25 x Q q l 1 l 1 1 0 0 0 
4 
Pt + 22/25 x Q 
q l l +q l +q 1 0 1 
5 
21/25 x Q 
q q q l 0 l +q 
6 20/25 x Q q q q 0 q 
7 19/25 x Q q q q 0 q 
8 18/25 x Q q q q 0 q 
9 
18/25 x Q 
q q q 0 q 
10 to 14 (…) q q q 0 q 
15 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 
16 10/25 x Q q q q l q 
17 9/25 x Q q q q q 
18 to 24 (…) q q q q 
25 1/25 x Q q q q q 
Cost 
Infrastructure 
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 
1 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 
2 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 
3 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 1 1 0 0 0 
4 
푫풕 + 푪풕+ DEBT+ 
INTEREST 1 0 1 
5 
푫풕 +DEBT + 
INTEREST 0 
6 푫풕 0 
7 푫풕 0 
8 푫풕 0 
9 푫풕 0 
10 to 14 푫풕 0 
15 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 
16 푫풕 
17 푫풕 
18 to 24 푫풕 
25 푫풕
Scenario results 
(5.1.3) 
Q [€] SQ[€] (Total 
allocation) 
SRI [€] (Total 
income from 
investment) 
NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of 
expenses) 
SP [€] 
(Total 
loans) 
SJ [€] (Total 
interest 
paid) 
Z [€] 
(Deficit) 
169.824,55 2.207.719,10 963.028,51 58.890,48 3.049.481,34 193.314,95 28.536,23 84.887,62 
200000.00 
150000.00 
100000.00 
50000.00 
0.00 
-50000.00 
-100000.00 
-150000.00 
Financial evolution 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 
Cash flow operacional RI Despesa
Scenarios 
Q [€] SQ[€] (Total 
allocation) 
SRI [€] (Total 
income from 
investment) 
NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of 
expenses) 
SP [€] (Total 
loans) 
SJ [€] (Total 
interest paid) 
Z [€] 
(Deficit) 
250.744,37 3.259.676,78 998.621,86 121.234,73 4.154.545,59 113.562,45 11.023,52 151.851,36 
107.220,96 1.393.872,42 845.854,84 189.979,72 1.864.637,23 617.193,30 282.360,40 3.120,10 
169.824,55 2.207.719,10 963.028,51 58.890,48 3.049.481,34 193.314,95 28.536,23 84.887,62
Sustainability study conclusions 
 Unconstrained costs leads to earlier infrastructure 
construction with short span. 
 Strong costs reduction leads to decrease in liquity. 
 More need of bank loans. 
 Wider time span for infrastructure construction
Model conclusions 
 What’s left to explore? 
 Other applications: 
 Highways, hospital, stadiums? 
 Production of pharmaceuticals? 
 Software development?
References 
J. Nocedal e S. J. Wright, Numerical Optimization, 2nd Edition, Springer, 
Berlim, 2006 
Cornuejols, G., & Tütüncü, R. (2007). Optimization Methods in Finance. 
Cambridge University Press, New York
The End 
Thank you

Integrated planning of cash-flows and projects in a discrete-time model

  • 1.
    Francisco Lemosa andPedro Martinsb,c (a) Master in Information Systems and Management (b) Polytechnic Institute of Coimbra – ISCAC, Portugal (c) Operations Research Center (CIO), Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Portugal
  • 3.
    Functional structure Pilot School - Aero Clube de Coimbra  Aeronautic maintenance – Industrias Aeronáuticas de Coimbra
  • 4.
    Functional structure Fire prevention squadron  Functional runway – landing of Brazil’s President, Dilma Roussef
  • 5.
    Financial envelope Cost structure:  Anual current expense aprox. 150.000,00 € (Financial + HR)  No income, no landing, parking or fuel supply fees
  • 6.
    What’s the problem’sobjective? Minimize the yearly Municipal financial allocation 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Q Objective Min. Q
  • 7.
    Formulation Financial Income= Financial outcome  C -> cost of building 25 years to pay the project  Q -> Municipal allocation  P -> Bank financing  l -> European Union funding  q -> Income from investments being made infrastructure  D -> financial cost center and HR cost  P -> bank debt  J -> debt interest 15 years to execute the project’s infrastructure
  • 8.
    Formulation – Data– Project stages The infrastructures are built according to the time sequence defined for the 5 stages 푖 = 푌푡 1 푖푓 푡ℎ푒 푖푛푓푟푎푠푡푟푢푐푡푢푟푒 푖푠 푏푢푖푙푡 푎푡 푦푒푎푟 푡 0 case otherwise , i=1,…,9 ; t=1,…,15 i (Stage) Infras. Expected income value when concluded 1 Parking space lease 12.179,20 5 Parking space lease 8.752,76 6 Parking space lesase 16.814,38 9 Hangars space lease 5.376,22 Total 43.122,56 1 Parkin g space 3 Runwa y exten. 2 Fuel supply 4 Transf. of safeho. 5 Parkin g space 6 Parkin g space 7 Access to runway 8 Hangar Altern. access 9 Hangar layout
  • 9.
    Architecture project fordevelopment – 5 stages with a total of 9 infrastructures 1st stage: Parking space and fuel supply (174.000,00 €) 2nd stage: runway extension and transfer of safe house (156.000,00 €) 3rd stage: Parking space (30.300,00 €) 4th stage: Parking space and access to runway (114.700,00 €) 5th stage: Hangar alternative access and hangar layout (137.450,00 €)
  • 10.
    Bank financing constraints t [year ] 풇풕[€] (Min. Loan amount) 푭풕 [€] (Max. Loan amount) 휸풕 [%] (interest rate) 푴풕 [year] (maturity) 1 0 60000,00 8 10 2 0 60000,00 8 10 3 0 60000,00 8 10 4 0 60000,00 8 10 5 0 60000,00 8 10 6 0 60000,00 8 10 7 0 60000,00 8 10 8 0 60000,00 8 10 9 0 60000,00 8 10 10 0 60000,00 8 10 11 0 60000,00 8 10 12 0 60000,00 8 10 13 0 60000,00 8 10 14 0 60000,00 8 10 15 0 60000,00 8 10 (sum of debt payment equals the loan’s amount) 10 푗=1 푗 = 푃푡 푡 = 1, 2, … 15 푋푡
  • 11.
    Scenario results -Initial scenario(5.1.1) Income side Income Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Pt + Q 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Pt + 24/52xQ l +q l 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 23/25 x Q q l l l +q l +q 1 0 1 4 22/25 x Q q q q l 0 l +q 5 21/25 x Q q q q 0 q 6 to 14 … q q q 0 q 15 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 16 10/25 x Q q q q l 17 to 24 … q q q q 25 1/25 x Q q q q q
  • 12.
    Scenario results -Initial scenario(5.1.1) Cost side 퐷푡 = 4 푘=1 퐷푘푡 (1 + Ω푖 )푡−푡푘푖 푘 = 1, 2 … , 4 푡푘푖 k Human resource expenses ≤ 푡 ≤ 푡푘푖 푫풌풕[€] (initial value) 풕풌풊 + Δ푡푘 −1 [year] (starting year of expense) Δ풕풌[year] (ending year of expense) Ω풌[%] (increase rate) 1 Air trafic controller 26.200,00 1 25 1,5 2 Air trafic controller being retired in five years 8.610,00 1 5 1,5 3 Airfield director (one year contract) 9.804,00 1 1 0 4 Financial costs 110.192,82 1 25 1,5 Cost Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 1 2 푫풕 + 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 1 1 1 3 푫풕 + 푪풕 +DEBT+ INTEREST 1 1 4 푫풕 5 푫풕 6 to 14 푫풕 15 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 16 푫풕 17 to 24 푫풕 25 푫풕 (debt payment) 푗−1 푡=1 (interests) 푗 푗 = 2, … 25 훾푡 푃푡 − 푋푡 푡+1 푗−푡≤10 푗 푡 = 1, 2, … 15 푋푡
  • 13.
    Formulation – Sustainabilityconstraint Sustainability constraint at the end of the planning horizon (t = 25) adds up to: the sum of every income plus Z must be larger than the expenses: 9 푖 =1 15 푗=1 푖 + 푍 ≥ 퐷25 휃푖푌푗 Z being positive is commonly known as deficit .
  • 14.
    Scenario results Initialscenario(5.1.1) Income Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Pt + Q 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Pt + 24/52xQ l +q l 1 1 1 1 0 0 3 23/25 x Q q l l l +q l +q 1 0 1 4 22/25 x Q q q q l 0 l +q 5 21/25 x Q q q q 0 q 6 to 14 … q q q 0 q 15 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 16 10/25 x Q q q q l 17 to 24 … q q q q 25 1/25 x Q q q q q Cost Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 1 2 푫풕 + 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 1 1 1 3 푫풕 + 푪풕 +DEBT+ INTEREST 1 1 4 푫풕 5 푫풕 6 to 14 푫풕 15 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 16 푫풕 17 to 24 푫풕 25 푫풕
  • 15.
    Scenario results Initialscenario(5.1.1) Q [€] SQ[€] (Total allocation) SRI [€] (Total income from investment) NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of expenses) SP [€] (Total loans) SJ [€] (Total interest paid) Z [€] (Deficit) 250.744,37 3.259.676,78 998.621,86 121.234,73 4.154.545,59 113.562,45 11.023,52 151.851,36 194973.920 300000.000 250000.000 200000.000 150000.000 100000.000 50000.000 .000 -50000.000 -100000.000 -150000.000 -200000.000 Financial evolution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Cash flow operacional RI Despesa
  • 16.
    Scenario evolution Costdecrease(5.1.2) k Human resource expenses 푫풌풕[€] (initial value) 풕풌풊 [year] (starting year of expense) Δ풕풌[year] (ending year of expense) Ω풌[%] (increase rate) 1 Air trafic controller 26.200,00 1 25 1,5 2 Air trafic controller being retired in five years 8.610,00 1 5 1,5 3 Airfield director (one year contract) 9.804,00 1 1 0 4 Financial costs 110.192,82 1 25 -10
  • 17.
    Scenario results Reductionof expenses(5.1.2) Income Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Pt + Q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Pt +24/25 x Q 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Pt + 23/25 x Q l +q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 Pt + 22/25 x Q q 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 Pt + 21/25 x Q q l 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 Pt + 20/25 x Q q l 1 1 0 1 0 0 7 Pt + 19/25 x Q q l l +q 1 l 0 1 8 Pt +18/25 x Q q q l +q 0 l +q 9 Pt +18/25 x Q q q q 0 q 10 to 14 Pt + (…) q q q 0 q 15 Pt + 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 16 10/25 x Q q q q l 17 9/25 x Q q q q q 18 to 24 (…) q q q q 25 1/25 x Q q q q q Cost Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 푫풕 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 푫풕+ 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 푫풕+ 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 푫풕+ 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 1 0 1 0 0 7 푫풕+ 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 1 8 푫풕+DEBT+ INTEREST 0 9 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 0 10 to 14 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 0 15 푫풕+ 푪풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 1 16 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 17 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 18 to 24 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST 25 푫풕 + DEBT+ INTEREST
  • 18.
    Scenario results Reductionof expenses(5.1.2) Q [€] SQ[€] (Total allocation) SRI [€] (Total income from investment) NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of expenses) SP [€] (Total loans) SJ [€] (Total interest paid) Z [€] (Deficit) 107.220,96 1.393.872,42 845.854,84 189.979,72 1.864.637,23 617.193,30 282.360,40 3.120,10 46242.663 200000.000 150000.000 100000.000 50000.000 .000 -50000.000 -100000.000 -150000.000 Financial evolution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Cash flow operacional RI Despesa
  • 19.
    Scenario evolution 3years of re-adjustment + 10 years no cost increase + 12 cost increase (5.1.3) k Human resource expenses 푫풌풕[€] (initial value) 풕풌풊[year] (starting year of expense) Δ풕풌[year] (ending year of expense) Ω풌[%] (increase rate) 1ATIA 26200 1 3 -0,015 2ATIA to be retired 8610 1 3 -0,015 3BBMA director 9804 1 3 -0,015 4 Financial cost center 110192,8 1 3 -0,1 5ATIA 25038,6 4 10 0 6ATIA to be retired 8228,33 4 2 0 7BBMA director 9369,4 4 10 0 Financial cost center 80330,56 4 10 0 8 9ATIA 25038,6 14 12 0,01 10BBMA director 9369,4 14 12 0,01 11 Financial cost center 80330,56 14 12 0,01
  • 20.
    Scenario evolution Bankfinancing constraints(5.1.3) t [year] 풇풕[€] (Min. Loan amount) 푭풕 [€] (Max. Loan amount) 휸풕 [%] (interest rate) 푴풕 [year] (maturity) 1 0 60000 0,08 10 2 0 60000 0,08 10 3 0 60000 0,08 10 4 0 60000 0,07 10 5 0 80000 0,06 10 6 0 80000 0,055 10 7 0 80000 0,055 10 8 0 90000 0,05 10 9 0 80000 0,055 10 10 0 80000 0,055 10 11 0 100000 0,05 10 12 0 80000 0,06 10 13 0 80000 0,055 10 14 0 60000 0,07 10 15 0 60000 0,075 10
  • 21.
    Scenario results (5.1.3) Income Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Pt + Q 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Pt +24/25 x Q l +q 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 Pt + 23/25 x Q q l 1 l 1 1 0 0 0 4 Pt + 22/25 x Q q l l +q l +q 1 0 1 5 21/25 x Q q q q l 0 l +q 6 20/25 x Q q q q 0 q 7 19/25 x Q q q q 0 q 8 18/25 x Q q q q 0 q 9 18/25 x Q q q q 0 q 10 to 14 (…) q q q 0 q 15 11/25 x Q q q q 1 q 16 10/25 x Q q q q l q 17 9/25 x Q q q q q 18 to 24 (…) q q q q 25 1/25 x Q q q q q Cost Infrastructure Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 푫풕 + 푪풕+ INTEREST 1 1 1 0 0 0 4 푫풕 + 푪풕+ DEBT+ INTEREST 1 0 1 5 푫풕 +DEBT + INTEREST 0 6 푫풕 0 7 푫풕 0 8 푫풕 0 9 푫풕 0 10 to 14 푫풕 0 15 푫풕 + 푪풕 1 16 푫풕 17 푫풕 18 to 24 푫풕 25 푫풕
  • 22.
    Scenario results (5.1.3) Q [€] SQ[€] (Total allocation) SRI [€] (Total income from investment) NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of expenses) SP [€] (Total loans) SJ [€] (Total interest paid) Z [€] (Deficit) 169.824,55 2.207.719,10 963.028,51 58.890,48 3.049.481,34 193.314,95 28.536,23 84.887,62 200000.00 150000.00 100000.00 50000.00 0.00 -50000.00 -100000.00 -150000.00 Financial evolution 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Cash flow operacional RI Despesa
  • 23.
    Scenarios Q [€]SQ[€] (Total allocation) SRI [€] (Total income from investment) NPV [€] SD [€] (Total of expenses) SP [€] (Total loans) SJ [€] (Total interest paid) Z [€] (Deficit) 250.744,37 3.259.676,78 998.621,86 121.234,73 4.154.545,59 113.562,45 11.023,52 151.851,36 107.220,96 1.393.872,42 845.854,84 189.979,72 1.864.637,23 617.193,30 282.360,40 3.120,10 169.824,55 2.207.719,10 963.028,51 58.890,48 3.049.481,34 193.314,95 28.536,23 84.887,62
  • 24.
    Sustainability study conclusions  Unconstrained costs leads to earlier infrastructure construction with short span.  Strong costs reduction leads to decrease in liquity.  More need of bank loans.  Wider time span for infrastructure construction
  • 25.
    Model conclusions What’s left to explore?  Other applications:  Highways, hospital, stadiums?  Production of pharmaceuticals?  Software development?
  • 26.
    References J. Nocedale S. J. Wright, Numerical Optimization, 2nd Edition, Springer, Berlim, 2006 Cornuejols, G., & Tütüncü, R. (2007). Optimization Methods in Finance. Cambridge University Press, New York
  • 27.