This document summarizes research predicting the long-term solar wind ion-sputtering source at Mercury using data from the Helios spacecraft. The key points are:
1) Maps of solar wind proton flux onto Mercury's surface were constructed using a magnetosphere model and solar wind conditions estimated from Helios data when it was in Mercury's orbit.
2) Analysis of Helios data in Mercury's orbital range found that solar wind density increases by a factor of 2.3 from aphelion to perihelion, while velocity is independent of distance. IMF Bz is more likely to be strongly southward at perihelion.
3) Model runs used solar wind parameters matching the most probable conditions identified
This document summarizes evidence that argues against the hypothesis of a "lunar terminal cataclysm" approximately 3.9 billion years ago. It analyzes dating of lunar highland rocks and meteorites, finding they do not show a prominent peak at 3.9 billion years as expected, but rather a more uniform distribution of ages. Analysis of the cratering record of lunar basins also argues against a spike in the lunar bombardment rate at that time. Modeling of impact melt production and redistribution across the lunar surface further casts doubt on there having been a major cataclysm 3.9 billion years ago as hypothesized.
M6.0 2004 Parkfield Earthquake : Seismic AttenuationAli Osman Öncel
HRSN isimli kuyu içi sismik istasyonlar kullanılarak, San Andreas fayı boyunca meydana gelen büyük depremler öncesi sismik azalımın varlığının olup olmadığı araştırılıyor.
The document describes the development of site-dependent design spectra for Turkey based on analysis of 112 strong ground motion records from 57 earthquakes between 1976-2003. The spectra account for magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. Three site categories were defined based on shear wave velocity: rock, soil, and soft soil. Attenuation relationships were developed to predict peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration based on magnitude, distance, and site category. The derived spectra were compared to other design spectra and found to be generally consistent while providing site-specific information not available in other codes.
Marmara ve İstanbul için ayrı ayrı 2 senaryo yapılmış. Coulomb Stress etkisi önemli ölçüde deprem olasılığını yükseltiyor. Özellikle, KAFZ boyunca meydana gelen depremlerin yüzey kırıklarının Dünya'da ki benzer büyük depremlerin yüzey kırıklarından oldukça farklı ve büyük.
Recent north magnetic pole acceleration towards Siberia caused by flux lobe e...Sérgio Sacani
The wandering of Earth’s north magnetic pole, the location where the magnetic field points vertically downwards, has long been
a topic of scientific fascination. Since the first in situ measurements in 1831 of its location in the Canadian arctic, the pole has
drifted inexorably towards Siberia, accelerating between 1990 and 2005 from its historic speed of 0–15 km yr−1
to its present
speed of 50–60 km yr−1
. In late October 2017 the north magnetic pole crossed the international date line, passing within 390 km
of the geographic pole, and is now moving southwards. Here we show that over the last two decades the position of the north
magnetic pole has been largely determined by two large-scale lobes of negative magnetic flux on the core–mantle boundary
under Canada and Siberia. Localized modelling shows that elongation of the Canadian lobe, probably caused by an alteration
in the pattern of core flow between 1970 and 1999, substantially weakened its signature on Earth’s surface, causing the pole
to accelerate towards Siberia. A range of simple models that capture this process indicate that over the next decade the north
magnetic pole will continue on its current trajectory, travelling a further 390–660 km towards Siberia.
The Border Zone between the Arabian and Turkish plates has been unusually quiet seismically during the 20th century, with only three earthquakes above magnitude 6.6. However, examining historical earthquake data from the past few centuries shows that this recent quiescence is atypical of long-term behavior in the zone. Specifically, 15 large earthquakes with magnitudes over 6.6 are documented in the region between 1500-1905, indicating the 20th century has experienced an anomalous lack of seismic activity when compared to previous centuries. This suggests that short-term seismic data alone are not sufficient to reliably assess earthquake hazards in the region.
This document discusses concepts in seismology including:
- P and S wave velocities are represented by symbols α and β or Vp and Vs.
- Seismic velocities depend on properties like bulk modulus, shear modulus, and density.
- There is an empirical relationship between P wave velocity and density known as the Nafe-Drake curve.
- Earthquake locations can be determined by measuring travel times of seismic waves between stations.
This document summarizes evidence that argues against the hypothesis of a "lunar terminal cataclysm" approximately 3.9 billion years ago. It analyzes dating of lunar highland rocks and meteorites, finding they do not show a prominent peak at 3.9 billion years as expected, but rather a more uniform distribution of ages. Analysis of the cratering record of lunar basins also argues against a spike in the lunar bombardment rate at that time. Modeling of impact melt production and redistribution across the lunar surface further casts doubt on there having been a major cataclysm 3.9 billion years ago as hypothesized.
M6.0 2004 Parkfield Earthquake : Seismic AttenuationAli Osman Öncel
HRSN isimli kuyu içi sismik istasyonlar kullanılarak, San Andreas fayı boyunca meydana gelen büyük depremler öncesi sismik azalımın varlığının olup olmadığı araştırılıyor.
The document describes the development of site-dependent design spectra for Turkey based on analysis of 112 strong ground motion records from 57 earthquakes between 1976-2003. The spectra account for magnitude, distance, and local site conditions. Three site categories were defined based on shear wave velocity: rock, soil, and soft soil. Attenuation relationships were developed to predict peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration based on magnitude, distance, and site category. The derived spectra were compared to other design spectra and found to be generally consistent while providing site-specific information not available in other codes.
Marmara ve İstanbul için ayrı ayrı 2 senaryo yapılmış. Coulomb Stress etkisi önemli ölçüde deprem olasılığını yükseltiyor. Özellikle, KAFZ boyunca meydana gelen depremlerin yüzey kırıklarının Dünya'da ki benzer büyük depremlerin yüzey kırıklarından oldukça farklı ve büyük.
Recent north magnetic pole acceleration towards Siberia caused by flux lobe e...Sérgio Sacani
The wandering of Earth’s north magnetic pole, the location where the magnetic field points vertically downwards, has long been
a topic of scientific fascination. Since the first in situ measurements in 1831 of its location in the Canadian arctic, the pole has
drifted inexorably towards Siberia, accelerating between 1990 and 2005 from its historic speed of 0–15 km yr−1
to its present
speed of 50–60 km yr−1
. In late October 2017 the north magnetic pole crossed the international date line, passing within 390 km
of the geographic pole, and is now moving southwards. Here we show that over the last two decades the position of the north
magnetic pole has been largely determined by two large-scale lobes of negative magnetic flux on the core–mantle boundary
under Canada and Siberia. Localized modelling shows that elongation of the Canadian lobe, probably caused by an alteration
in the pattern of core flow between 1970 and 1999, substantially weakened its signature on Earth’s surface, causing the pole
to accelerate towards Siberia. A range of simple models that capture this process indicate that over the next decade the north
magnetic pole will continue on its current trajectory, travelling a further 390–660 km towards Siberia.
The Border Zone between the Arabian and Turkish plates has been unusually quiet seismically during the 20th century, with only three earthquakes above magnitude 6.6. However, examining historical earthquake data from the past few centuries shows that this recent quiescence is atypical of long-term behavior in the zone. Specifically, 15 large earthquakes with magnitudes over 6.6 are documented in the region between 1500-1905, indicating the 20th century has experienced an anomalous lack of seismic activity when compared to previous centuries. This suggests that short-term seismic data alone are not sufficient to reliably assess earthquake hazards in the region.
This document discusses concepts in seismology including:
- P and S wave velocities are represented by symbols α and β or Vp and Vs.
- Seismic velocities depend on properties like bulk modulus, shear modulus, and density.
- There is an empirical relationship between P wave velocity and density known as the Nafe-Drake curve.
- Earthquake locations can be determined by measuring travel times of seismic waves between stations.
This document summarizes the development of a new ultra-high resolution model of Earth's gravity field called GGMplus. Key points:
- GGMplus combines satellite gravity data from GOCE and GRACE with terrestrial gravity data and topography to achieve unprecedented 200m spatial resolution globally.
- It provides gridded estimates of gravity, horizontal and radial field components, and quasi-geoid heights at over 3 billion points covering 80% of the Earth's land.
- GGMplus reveals new details of small-scale gravity variations and identifies locations of minimum and maximum gravity, suggesting peak-to-peak variations are 40% larger than previous estimates. The model will benefit scientific and engineering applications.
Deprem Verilerinin H/V Oranının Mevsimsel Değişimi Ali Osman Öncel
H/V oranının zaman içinde değişimi konusu bana oldukça ilginç gelmişti ve bu tür bir çalışma yapıldı mı sorusunu netleştirmek için araştırma yaptım ve 2021 yılında bu konuda GJI gibi bir dergide yayınlanmış bir çalışma buldum. Bu çalışma oldukça iyi bir referans H/V çalışmaları için. Önemli referans düşünceler şöyle; 1) Mevsimsel olarak yağışa bağlı olarak yeraltı kaynaklarında ki azalma ve yükselmeye bağlı olarak H/V yükseliyor, 2) H/V pik değerleri kaya zemin üzerinde yaklaşık BİR (1) oranında seyreder ve PİK vermezken, kaya zeminden uzaklaşıldıkça zemin etkisi ile PİK değerleri değişir, 3) Deprem ve Gürültü sinyallerinden hesap edilen F(PİK) nerede ise sabitken, H/V oranları %10 değişir, 4) M6.8 büyüklüğünde meydana gelen bir deprem H/V değişimlerini etkiler.
Yapılan çalışmada kullanılan yaklaşım SESAME (2004) kriterlerine uygun olarak 1) 60 dakikalık veriler analizi, 2) 1000 günden fazla gözlem süresi 3) 10'dan fazla farklı zeminlerde istasyon 4) 60 dakikalık birbirinden ayrı verilerin analiz edilmesi. Oldukça emek yoğun bir çalışma
This document reassesses the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region from 1900 to 1999. The author compiled a catalog of over 5,000 earthquakes in the region, with a focus on 369 shallow earthquakes (depth less than 40 km) of magnitude 6.0 or greater. Many early earthquake locations and magnitudes from international catalogs were found to be inaccurate and have been re-evaluated based on macroseismic data and other studies. The catalog provides improved parameters for understanding seismic hazards and tectonics in the region.
This document evaluates the seismic risk in Istanbul, Turkey. It finds that ground motions from a future earthquake near Istanbul would likely be comparable to those that devastated Düzce, Turkey in 1999. The structures of buildings in Istanbul are found to have a similar vulnerability as those in Düzce based on structural analysis. Given these similarities, the document projects that an earthquake near Istanbul could cause severe damage or collapse to approximately 250,000 buildings. It concludes that leaving the vulnerable buildings unchanged and only planning emergency response is not a sufficient strategy for Istanbul.
The gravity method involves measuring variations in the Earth's gravitational field to determine subsurface density variations. Gravity surveys measure differences in gravitational attraction at surface locations. After collecting data at regular intervals, corrections are applied for drift, elevation, tides and topography. The corrected anomalies are analyzed to infer subsurface geology, locating structures like faults, voids or buried valleys. Common applications include engineering, environmental and geothermal studies.
1) The document reassesses seismic hazard in the Marmara region of Turkey using new data on undersea fault segments and updated ground motion models.
2) Hazard maps show peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations with 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, indicating increased hazard across much of the region compared to previous maps.
3) The maximum predicted peak ground acceleration is 1.5g along fault segments of the North Anatolian fault extending into the Marmara Sea.
Gravitational Blue Shift Confirms the New Phenomenon of the Vertical Aether F...IOSR Journals
In fact, the vertical position of Michelson-Morley experiment is not the only possible explanation for the new phenomenon of the vertical Aether flow into any mass or any fundamental building block. This paper shows, for the first time, that the cosmic blue shift due to a gravitational field is a direct consequence of the vertical Aether flow into any mass. The vertical Aether speeds of different stellar objects have been given, which suggest reclassifying the categories of black holes. To confirm the theory presented, new formulas for Doppler Effect in a gravitational field and its correlation with the time dilation, as derived from the General Relativity, has also been derived. The theoretical expressions corresponding to the two experimental results have been given. Also, a new prediction has been proposed, for the first time, to confirm the theories presented in this paper.
SEMS and ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE
As we know, the main states of matter are three: solid, liquid and gas; states whose respective elasticities have their corresponding formulas or equations. We also know that the atmosphere is the gaseous part that surrounds the Earth and that this consists of 5 layers: troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere or ionosphere and exosphere. The troposphere is the lowest layer in contact with the earth and with higher density , since it supports the other layers and wherein the greater thermal variations take place, leading in turn to the variations of pressure (high and low pressure) , which are the cause of the meteorological or climate phenomenas.
This document discusses various perturbations that can affect a satellite's orbit. It describes perturbations due to the non-spherical shape of the Earth, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure. Perturbations from the Earth's oblateness and bulge at the equator cause mainly secular variations in the satellite's longitude of ascending node and argument of perigee. Atmospheric drag opposes the satellite's velocity and will cause its orbit to decay over time. Solar radiation pressure also produces periodic variations in the orbital elements, with its effect exceeding that of atmospheric drag for satellites above 800 km altitude.
The presentation comprises the Gravity Method, It's anomaly, reduction, and its applications. The Gravity method is commonly used in Geology specifically in Geophysics.
This document compares estimates of slip rates from long-term seismicity data to those calculated from GPS measurements for three regions in the eastern Mediterranean: the Gulf of Corinth, the Sea of Marmara, and the Dead Sea Fault Zone. It finds that slip rates calculated from historical earthquake data are generally comparable to those from GPS, while also quantifying uncertainties in the size of historical earthquakes. This permits a more reliable estimation of long-term seismic hazard for engineering purposes. The study focuses on areas with extensive long-term macroseismic information to facilitate this type of analysis.
- Researchers in China noticed significant gravity changes in a region covering the south-north earthquake belt before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9). In 2006, they suggested a major earthquake could occur near Wenchuan in 2007-2008 based on these gravity variations.
- Repeated regional gravity surveys were conducted in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005 using absolute and relative gravity measurements. Gravity variations at some locations near Wenchuan were significant but more research is needed to determine if they could be considered precursors.
- Limitations in the data include measurement errors, effects of hydrology and crustal movements on gravity readings, coarse station density, and long time intervals between surveys. Improved
Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformationSérgio Sacani
Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian
ocean1–8. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in
the northern plains2,7
. However, these shorelines fail to follow
an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the
notion that they formed via an early ocean9
and hence to question
the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines’ deviation from a
constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring
after the formation of Tharsis10, a volcanic province that dominates
the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from
the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from
the equator10, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near
the equator11–15, meaning that there is no current explanation for
the shorelines’ deviation from an equipotential that is consistent
with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that
variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation
caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines
must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis,
instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that
oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks15,
and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans
on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with
broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate
of early Mars.
The document summarizes a study that estimated potential losses in Istanbul, Turkey from earthquake scenarios along faults in the Marmara Sea region. Deterministic ground motion scenarios were developed for a Mw 7.4 earthquake on the Central Marmara Basin fault, using different rupture models. Synthetic time series were calculated on a grid covering Istanbul and peak ground accelerations were found to range from 1.0-7.0 m/s2 depending on the scenario. A loss estimation model was then applied using the ground motions and a building inventory database to evaluate expected damage and casualties from the scenarios.
Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Wind Vector Fields and Arctic Sea-Ice Le...priscillaahn
Ice packs are constantly subject to ocean current and wind forces, causing cracks to form in rigid winter sea ice. Under enough stress, these cracks can propagate into large-scale fractures, or “leads”. Understanding how sea-ice leads form can provide insight into the net thinning of the Arctic sea-ice pack.
Leads in the Arctic sea-ice pack occur in distinct geometric patterns and sequences similar to those in rock. This suggests that the Mohr Coulomb principle of rock brittle deformation can possibly explain the spatial and temporal distribution of brittle failure in sea ice.
This lab activity document provides instructions for students to locate the epicenters of three earthquakes using seismic data from three stations for each earthquake. Students will analyze seismograms to determine the arrival times of P-waves and S-waves and then use the difference in arrival times to calculate the distance from each station to the epicenter. Students will then draw circles with radii equal to these distances on maps to locate where the circles intersect, identifying the epicenter's location. Tables are included for recording data, and maps show the station locations to draw epicenter circles. Discussion questions at the end address earthquake prediction, minimum stations needed, and properties of P and S waves.
This document summarizes a study that investigated shear-wave attenuation and site response in Guerrero, Mexico using spectra from moderate earthquakes. The researchers developed a method to model spectra assuming an ω-2 source shape and exponential decay to describe attenuation. They were able to separate the spectral decay parameter into distance-dependent and site-dependent components. Comparing observed and model event spectra allowed them to estimate site response effects for different stations, independent of source and path effects. The study found weaker distance dependence of attenuation in Guerrero compared to southern California, but greater near-site attenuation. Significant amplification and deamplification was observed in site response functions for hard rock sites, with no clear correlation with local geology or topography.
1980 öncesi deprem istasyon sayısı Türkiye'de herhalde 50'den azdı ve bu nedenle deprem istatistiği çalışmaları Türkiye boyunca çok büyük alanlara bölünerek yapılmış. Okla gösterdiğim yerlerde magnitüd aralığı çok yetersiz. Bu çalışmada, 4x4 şeklinde dilimleme yapılmış. 400kmx400 km olarak dilimlere ayrılarak yapılmış. Veri olmadığı zaman mecbur ALANI büyütmek zorunda kalıyorsunuz... bu nedenle Makro-İstatistik İnceleme yapılmış oluyor.a/b oranını çalışmalarımda hiç kullanmadım fakat bana kalırsa yararlı bir parametre olarak görünüyor. Bir yıl içinde olması beklenen en büyük deprem büyüklüğünü veriyor. Buna göre bu çalışmada, bir yıl içinde beklenen en büyük deprem M=5 bulunmuş ve alan 39 E ve 41 B arasında bir yere denk geliyor... muhtemelen Karlıova Üçlü Bileşimi çevresi olabilir.
This document summarizes a study that used gravity data to delineate underground structure in the Beppu geothermal field in Japan. Analysis of Bouguer anomaly maps revealed high anomalies in the southern and northern parts of the study area that correspond to known geological formations. Edge detection filtering of the gravity data helped identify subsurface faults, including the northern edge of the high southern anomaly corresponding to the Asamigawa Fault. Depth modeling of the gravity basement showed differences between the southern and northern hot spring areas, with steep basement slopes along faults in the south and uplifted basement in the north.
Seismic Modeling ASEG 082001 Andrew LongAndrew Long
This document discusses tools for modeling elastic wave propagation to aid in seismic survey planning. It summarizes three main modeling techniques: recursive reflectivity methods, ray tracing methods, and full wavefield methods using finite-differencing. Ray tracing is useful for optimizing survey geometry but not reflectivity studies, while reflectivity and finite-difference methods model full wavefields and are better for amplitude studies like AVO. Integrating these modeling tools with real data and rock physics analysis allows comprehensive understanding of wave propagation for effective survey planning addressing all acquisition parameters and seismic phenomena.
The nonmagnetic nucleus_of_comet_67_p_churyumov_gerasimenkoSérgio Sacani
Artigo descreve como a sonda Rosetta e o módulo Philae descobriram que o cometa Churyumov-Gerasimenko não é magnetizado, contrariando uma teoria da formação do Sistema Solar.
Evidence of a plume on Europa from Galileo magnetic and plasma wave signaturesSérgio Sacani
The icy surface of Jupiter’s moon, Europa, is thought to lie
on top of a global ocean1–4. Signatures in some Hubble Space
Telescope images have been associated with putative water
plumes rising above Europa’s surface5,6, providing support for
the ocean theory. However, all telescopic detections reported
were made at the limit of sensitivity of the data5–7
, thereby calling
for a search for plume signatures in in-situ measurements.
Here, we report in-situ evidence of a plume on Europa from
the magnetic field and plasma wave observations acquired on
Galileo’s closest encounter with the moon. During this flyby,
which dropped below 400 km altitude, the magnetometer8
recorded an approximately 1,000-kilometre-scale field rotation
and a decrease of over 200 nT in field magnitude, and
the Plasma Wave Spectrometer9 registered intense localized
wave emissions indicative of a brief but substantial increase
in plasma density. We show that the location, duration and
variations of the magnetic field and plasma wave measurements
are consistent with the interaction of Jupiter’s corotating
plasma with Europa if a plume with characteristics inferred
from Hubble images were erupting from the region of Europa’s
thermal anomalies. These results provide strong independent
evidence of the presence of plumes at Europa.
This document summarizes the development of a new ultra-high resolution model of Earth's gravity field called GGMplus. Key points:
- GGMplus combines satellite gravity data from GOCE and GRACE with terrestrial gravity data and topography to achieve unprecedented 200m spatial resolution globally.
- It provides gridded estimates of gravity, horizontal and radial field components, and quasi-geoid heights at over 3 billion points covering 80% of the Earth's land.
- GGMplus reveals new details of small-scale gravity variations and identifies locations of minimum and maximum gravity, suggesting peak-to-peak variations are 40% larger than previous estimates. The model will benefit scientific and engineering applications.
Deprem Verilerinin H/V Oranının Mevsimsel Değişimi Ali Osman Öncel
H/V oranının zaman içinde değişimi konusu bana oldukça ilginç gelmişti ve bu tür bir çalışma yapıldı mı sorusunu netleştirmek için araştırma yaptım ve 2021 yılında bu konuda GJI gibi bir dergide yayınlanmış bir çalışma buldum. Bu çalışma oldukça iyi bir referans H/V çalışmaları için. Önemli referans düşünceler şöyle; 1) Mevsimsel olarak yağışa bağlı olarak yeraltı kaynaklarında ki azalma ve yükselmeye bağlı olarak H/V yükseliyor, 2) H/V pik değerleri kaya zemin üzerinde yaklaşık BİR (1) oranında seyreder ve PİK vermezken, kaya zeminden uzaklaşıldıkça zemin etkisi ile PİK değerleri değişir, 3) Deprem ve Gürültü sinyallerinden hesap edilen F(PİK) nerede ise sabitken, H/V oranları %10 değişir, 4) M6.8 büyüklüğünde meydana gelen bir deprem H/V değişimlerini etkiler.
Yapılan çalışmada kullanılan yaklaşım SESAME (2004) kriterlerine uygun olarak 1) 60 dakikalık veriler analizi, 2) 1000 günden fazla gözlem süresi 3) 10'dan fazla farklı zeminlerde istasyon 4) 60 dakikalık birbirinden ayrı verilerin analiz edilmesi. Oldukça emek yoğun bir çalışma
This document reassesses the locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region from 1900 to 1999. The author compiled a catalog of over 5,000 earthquakes in the region, with a focus on 369 shallow earthquakes (depth less than 40 km) of magnitude 6.0 or greater. Many early earthquake locations and magnitudes from international catalogs were found to be inaccurate and have been re-evaluated based on macroseismic data and other studies. The catalog provides improved parameters for understanding seismic hazards and tectonics in the region.
This document evaluates the seismic risk in Istanbul, Turkey. It finds that ground motions from a future earthquake near Istanbul would likely be comparable to those that devastated Düzce, Turkey in 1999. The structures of buildings in Istanbul are found to have a similar vulnerability as those in Düzce based on structural analysis. Given these similarities, the document projects that an earthquake near Istanbul could cause severe damage or collapse to approximately 250,000 buildings. It concludes that leaving the vulnerable buildings unchanged and only planning emergency response is not a sufficient strategy for Istanbul.
The gravity method involves measuring variations in the Earth's gravitational field to determine subsurface density variations. Gravity surveys measure differences in gravitational attraction at surface locations. After collecting data at regular intervals, corrections are applied for drift, elevation, tides and topography. The corrected anomalies are analyzed to infer subsurface geology, locating structures like faults, voids or buried valleys. Common applications include engineering, environmental and geothermal studies.
1) The document reassesses seismic hazard in the Marmara region of Turkey using new data on undersea fault segments and updated ground motion models.
2) Hazard maps show peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations with 2% and 10% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, indicating increased hazard across much of the region compared to previous maps.
3) The maximum predicted peak ground acceleration is 1.5g along fault segments of the North Anatolian fault extending into the Marmara Sea.
Gravitational Blue Shift Confirms the New Phenomenon of the Vertical Aether F...IOSR Journals
In fact, the vertical position of Michelson-Morley experiment is not the only possible explanation for the new phenomenon of the vertical Aether flow into any mass or any fundamental building block. This paper shows, for the first time, that the cosmic blue shift due to a gravitational field is a direct consequence of the vertical Aether flow into any mass. The vertical Aether speeds of different stellar objects have been given, which suggest reclassifying the categories of black holes. To confirm the theory presented, new formulas for Doppler Effect in a gravitational field and its correlation with the time dilation, as derived from the General Relativity, has also been derived. The theoretical expressions corresponding to the two experimental results have been given. Also, a new prediction has been proposed, for the first time, to confirm the theories presented in this paper.
SEMS and ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE
As we know, the main states of matter are three: solid, liquid and gas; states whose respective elasticities have their corresponding formulas or equations. We also know that the atmosphere is the gaseous part that surrounds the Earth and that this consists of 5 layers: troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere or ionosphere and exosphere. The troposphere is the lowest layer in contact with the earth and with higher density , since it supports the other layers and wherein the greater thermal variations take place, leading in turn to the variations of pressure (high and low pressure) , which are the cause of the meteorological or climate phenomenas.
This document discusses various perturbations that can affect a satellite's orbit. It describes perturbations due to the non-spherical shape of the Earth, atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure. Perturbations from the Earth's oblateness and bulge at the equator cause mainly secular variations in the satellite's longitude of ascending node and argument of perigee. Atmospheric drag opposes the satellite's velocity and will cause its orbit to decay over time. Solar radiation pressure also produces periodic variations in the orbital elements, with its effect exceeding that of atmospheric drag for satellites above 800 km altitude.
The presentation comprises the Gravity Method, It's anomaly, reduction, and its applications. The Gravity method is commonly used in Geology specifically in Geophysics.
This document compares estimates of slip rates from long-term seismicity data to those calculated from GPS measurements for three regions in the eastern Mediterranean: the Gulf of Corinth, the Sea of Marmara, and the Dead Sea Fault Zone. It finds that slip rates calculated from historical earthquake data are generally comparable to those from GPS, while also quantifying uncertainties in the size of historical earthquakes. This permits a more reliable estimation of long-term seismic hazard for engineering purposes. The study focuses on areas with extensive long-term macroseismic information to facilitate this type of analysis.
- Researchers in China noticed significant gravity changes in a region covering the south-north earthquake belt before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Mw 7.9). In 2006, they suggested a major earthquake could occur near Wenchuan in 2007-2008 based on these gravity variations.
- Repeated regional gravity surveys were conducted in 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2005 using absolute and relative gravity measurements. Gravity variations at some locations near Wenchuan were significant but more research is needed to determine if they could be considered precursors.
- Limitations in the data include measurement errors, effects of hydrology and crustal movements on gravity readings, coarse station density, and long time intervals between surveys. Improved
Timing of oceans on Mars from shoreline deformationSérgio Sacani
Widespread evidence points to the existence of an ancient Martian
ocean1–8. Most compelling are the putative ancient shorelines in
the northern plains2,7
. However, these shorelines fail to follow
an equipotential surface, and this has been used to challenge the
notion that they formed via an early ocean9
and hence to question
the existence of such an ocean. The shorelines’ deviation from a
constant elevation can be explained by true polar wander occurring
after the formation of Tharsis10, a volcanic province that dominates
the gravity and topography of Mars. However, surface loading from
the oceans can drive polar wander only if Tharsis formed far from
the equator10, and most evidence indicates that Tharsis formed near
the equator11–15, meaning that there is no current explanation for
the shorelines’ deviation from an equipotential that is consistent
with our geophysical understanding of Mars. Here we show that
variations in shoreline topography can be explained by deformation
caused by the emplacement of Tharsis. We find that the shorelines
must have formed before and during the emplacement of Tharsis,
instead of afterwards, as previously assumed. Our results imply that
oceans on Mars formed early, concurrent with the valley networks15,
and point to a close relationship between the evolution of oceans
on Mars and the initiation and decline of Tharsis volcanism, with
broad implications for the geology, hydrological cycle and climate
of early Mars.
The document summarizes a study that estimated potential losses in Istanbul, Turkey from earthquake scenarios along faults in the Marmara Sea region. Deterministic ground motion scenarios were developed for a Mw 7.4 earthquake on the Central Marmara Basin fault, using different rupture models. Synthetic time series were calculated on a grid covering Istanbul and peak ground accelerations were found to range from 1.0-7.0 m/s2 depending on the scenario. A loss estimation model was then applied using the ground motions and a building inventory database to evaluate expected damage and casualties from the scenarios.
Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Wind Vector Fields and Arctic Sea-Ice Le...priscillaahn
Ice packs are constantly subject to ocean current and wind forces, causing cracks to form in rigid winter sea ice. Under enough stress, these cracks can propagate into large-scale fractures, or “leads”. Understanding how sea-ice leads form can provide insight into the net thinning of the Arctic sea-ice pack.
Leads in the Arctic sea-ice pack occur in distinct geometric patterns and sequences similar to those in rock. This suggests that the Mohr Coulomb principle of rock brittle deformation can possibly explain the spatial and temporal distribution of brittle failure in sea ice.
This lab activity document provides instructions for students to locate the epicenters of three earthquakes using seismic data from three stations for each earthquake. Students will analyze seismograms to determine the arrival times of P-waves and S-waves and then use the difference in arrival times to calculate the distance from each station to the epicenter. Students will then draw circles with radii equal to these distances on maps to locate where the circles intersect, identifying the epicenter's location. Tables are included for recording data, and maps show the station locations to draw epicenter circles. Discussion questions at the end address earthquake prediction, minimum stations needed, and properties of P and S waves.
This document summarizes a study that investigated shear-wave attenuation and site response in Guerrero, Mexico using spectra from moderate earthquakes. The researchers developed a method to model spectra assuming an ω-2 source shape and exponential decay to describe attenuation. They were able to separate the spectral decay parameter into distance-dependent and site-dependent components. Comparing observed and model event spectra allowed them to estimate site response effects for different stations, independent of source and path effects. The study found weaker distance dependence of attenuation in Guerrero compared to southern California, but greater near-site attenuation. Significant amplification and deamplification was observed in site response functions for hard rock sites, with no clear correlation with local geology or topography.
1980 öncesi deprem istasyon sayısı Türkiye'de herhalde 50'den azdı ve bu nedenle deprem istatistiği çalışmaları Türkiye boyunca çok büyük alanlara bölünerek yapılmış. Okla gösterdiğim yerlerde magnitüd aralığı çok yetersiz. Bu çalışmada, 4x4 şeklinde dilimleme yapılmış. 400kmx400 km olarak dilimlere ayrılarak yapılmış. Veri olmadığı zaman mecbur ALANI büyütmek zorunda kalıyorsunuz... bu nedenle Makro-İstatistik İnceleme yapılmış oluyor.a/b oranını çalışmalarımda hiç kullanmadım fakat bana kalırsa yararlı bir parametre olarak görünüyor. Bir yıl içinde olması beklenen en büyük deprem büyüklüğünü veriyor. Buna göre bu çalışmada, bir yıl içinde beklenen en büyük deprem M=5 bulunmuş ve alan 39 E ve 41 B arasında bir yere denk geliyor... muhtemelen Karlıova Üçlü Bileşimi çevresi olabilir.
This document summarizes a study that used gravity data to delineate underground structure in the Beppu geothermal field in Japan. Analysis of Bouguer anomaly maps revealed high anomalies in the southern and northern parts of the study area that correspond to known geological formations. Edge detection filtering of the gravity data helped identify subsurface faults, including the northern edge of the high southern anomaly corresponding to the Asamigawa Fault. Depth modeling of the gravity basement showed differences between the southern and northern hot spring areas, with steep basement slopes along faults in the south and uplifted basement in the north.
Seismic Modeling ASEG 082001 Andrew LongAndrew Long
This document discusses tools for modeling elastic wave propagation to aid in seismic survey planning. It summarizes three main modeling techniques: recursive reflectivity methods, ray tracing methods, and full wavefield methods using finite-differencing. Ray tracing is useful for optimizing survey geometry but not reflectivity studies, while reflectivity and finite-difference methods model full wavefields and are better for amplitude studies like AVO. Integrating these modeling tools with real data and rock physics analysis allows comprehensive understanding of wave propagation for effective survey planning addressing all acquisition parameters and seismic phenomena.
The nonmagnetic nucleus_of_comet_67_p_churyumov_gerasimenkoSérgio Sacani
Artigo descreve como a sonda Rosetta e o módulo Philae descobriram que o cometa Churyumov-Gerasimenko não é magnetizado, contrariando uma teoria da formação do Sistema Solar.
Evidence of a plume on Europa from Galileo magnetic and plasma wave signaturesSérgio Sacani
The icy surface of Jupiter’s moon, Europa, is thought to lie
on top of a global ocean1–4. Signatures in some Hubble Space
Telescope images have been associated with putative water
plumes rising above Europa’s surface5,6, providing support for
the ocean theory. However, all telescopic detections reported
were made at the limit of sensitivity of the data5–7
, thereby calling
for a search for plume signatures in in-situ measurements.
Here, we report in-situ evidence of a plume on Europa from
the magnetic field and plasma wave observations acquired on
Galileo’s closest encounter with the moon. During this flyby,
which dropped below 400 km altitude, the magnetometer8
recorded an approximately 1,000-kilometre-scale field rotation
and a decrease of over 200 nT in field magnitude, and
the Plasma Wave Spectrometer9 registered intense localized
wave emissions indicative of a brief but substantial increase
in plasma density. We show that the location, duration and
variations of the magnetic field and plasma wave measurements
are consistent with the interaction of Jupiter’s corotating
plasma with Europa if a plume with characteristics inferred
from Hubble images were erupting from the region of Europa’s
thermal anomalies. These results provide strong independent
evidence of the presence of plumes at Europa.
Lunar ejecta origin of near-Earth asteroid Kamo’oalewa is compatible with rar...Sérgio Sacani
Near-Earth asteroid, Kamo’oalewa (469219), is one of a small number of known quasisatellites of Earth; it transitions between quasi-satellite and horseshoe orbital states on
centennial timescales, maintaining this dynamics over megayears. The similarity of its
reflectance spectrum to lunar silicates and its Earth-like orbit both suggest that it originated
from the lunar surface. Here we carry out numerical simulations of the dynamical evolution of
particles launched from different locations on the lunar surface with a range of ejection
velocities in order to assess the hypothesis that Kamo‘oalewa originated as a debris-fragment
from a meteoroidal impact with the lunar surface. As these ejecta escape the Earth-Moon
environment, they face a dynamical barrier for entry into Earth’s co-orbital space. However, a
small fraction of launch conditions yields outcomes that are compatible with Kamo‘oalewa’s
orbit. The most favored conditions are launch velocities slightly above the escape velocity
from the trailing lunar hemisphere.
On the possibility of through passage of asteroid bodies across the Earth’s a...Sérgio Sacani
We have studied the conditions of through passage of asteroids with diameters 200, 100, and
50 m, consisting of three types of materials – iron, stone, and water ice, across the Earth’s
atmosphere with a minimum trajectory altitude in the range 10–15 km. The conditions of this
passage with a subsequent exit into outer space with the preservation of a substantial fraction
of the initial mass have been found. The results obtained support our idea explaining one of the
long-standing problems of astronomy – the Tunguska phenomenon, which has not received
reasonable and comprehensive interpretations to date. We argue that the Tunguska event was
caused by an iron asteroid body, which passed through the Earth’s atmosphere and continued
to the near-solar orbit.
Evidence for a_complex_enrichment_history_of_the_stream_from_fairall_9_sightlineSérgio Sacani
This study analyzes absorption spectra of the Magellanic Stream (MS) toward the quasar Fairall 9, obtained using the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (HST/COS) and the Very Large Telescope Ultraviolet and Visible Echelle Spectrograph (VLT/UVES). The spectra reveal absorption from multiple velocity components of the MS, indicating multiphase gas. Surprisingly, the sulfur abundance is found to be high ([S/H] = -0.30), five times higher than other MS sightlines, while the nitrogen abundance is lower ([N/H] = -1.15). This points to a complex enrichment history, where the gas toward Fair
1) High-dispersion spectroscopy was used to observe the young exoplanet Beta Pictoris b, detecting a blueshifted radial velocity of -15±1.7 km/s and rotational broadening of 25±3 km/s, indicating it spins faster than any planet in the solar system.
2) Beta Pictoris b's high spin velocity is consistent with an extrapolation of the trend of increasing spin velocity with planet mass seen in the solar system.
3) At an estimated age of 11±5 Myr, Beta Pictoris b is expected to cool and shrink over time, which would cause it to spin up further to a rotation velocity of around 40 km/s.
1) Global climate models that include sophisticated cloud schemes show that tidally locked planets can develop thick water clouds near the substellar point due to strong convection. These clouds greatly increase the planetary albedo and stabilize temperatures, allowing habitability at twice the stellar flux previously thought possible.
2) The cloud feedback is stabilizing, as higher stellar flux produces stronger convection and higher albedos. Substellar clouds can block outgoing radiation, reducing the day-night temperature contrast.
3) Non-tidally locked planets do not experience this stabilizing cloud feedback, as clouds only form over parts of the tropics and mid-latitudes. Their albedo decreases with increasing stellar flux, producing a destabil
Discovery of rapid whistlers close to Jupiter implying lightning rates simila...Sérgio Sacani
Electrical currents in atmospheric lightning strokes generate
impulsive radio waves in a broad range of frequencies, called
atmospherics. These waves can be modified by their passage
through the plasma environment of a planet into the form of
dispersed whistlers1. In the Io plasma torus around Jupiter,
Voyager 1 detected whistlers as several-seconds-long slowly
falling tones at audible frequencies2. These measurements
were the first evidence of lightning at Jupiter. Subsequently,
Jovian lightning was observed by optical cameras on board
several spacecraft in the form of localized flashes of light3–7.
Here, we show measurements by the Waves instrument8
on board the Juno spacecraft9–11 that indicate observations
of Jovian rapid whistlers: a form of dispersed atmospherics
at extremely short timescales of several milliseconds to
several tens of milliseconds. On the basis of these measurements,
we report over 1,600 lightning detections, the largest
set obtained to date. The data were acquired during close
approaches to Jupiter between August 2016 and September
2017, at radial distances below 5 Jovian radii. We detected up
to four lightning strokes per second, similar to rates in thunderstorms
on Earth12 and six times the peak rates from the
Voyager 1 observations13.
The document summarizes the first observations of the magnetic Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in the solar corona using high-resolution imaging from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. The instability was detected on the northern flank of a fast coronal mass ejection, appearing as substructures or waves against the darker coronal background. Analysis found the observed phase speed of the waves to be about half the speed of the ejecta front, validating theories of the non-linear dynamics of this instability in magnetized plasma environments. The findings provide new insights into fundamental plasma processes in the solar atmosphere and solar-terrestrial system.
Probing the jet_base_of_blazar_pks1830211_from_the_chromatic_variability_of_i...Sérgio Sacani
This document summarizes ALMA observations of the blazar PKS 1830-211 taken over multiple epochs in 2012. The blazar is lensed by a foreground galaxy, producing two resolved images (NE and SW) separated by 1". The observations were taken at frequencies corresponding to 350-1050 GHz in the blazar rest frame. Analysis of the flux ratio between the two images over time and frequency revealed a remarkable frequency-dependent behavior, implying a "chromatic structure" in the blazar jet. This is interpreted as evidence for a "core-shift effect" caused by plasmon ejection very near the base of the jet. The observations provide a unique probe of activity in the region where plasma acceleration occurs in blazar
Mars surface radiation_environment_measured_with_curiositySérgio Sacani
The Radiation Assessment Detector on the Curiosity rover measured the radiation environment on the surface of Mars over approximately 300 days. It found:
1) The average absorbed radiation dose from galactic cosmic rays was 0.210 mGy/day, varying due to atmospheric and solar conditions.
2) An additional absorbed dose of about 50 μGy was measured from a solar particle event.
3) Extrapolating the surface measurements, the absorbed dose was estimated to be 76 mGy/year at 1 meter below the surface, decreasing substantially at greater depths.
This document summarizes a numerical modeling study of the heliosphere using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) data as boundary conditions. The study uses IPS data from Japan as time-dependent 3D boundary conditions for the MS-FLUKSS MHD code to model plasma properties in the heliosheath. Simulation results for density and velocity from 2001-2009 are compared to Voyager 1 and 2 data, showing reasonable agreement especially for Voyager 2, though termination shock distances were underestimated.
The colision between_the_milky_way_and_andromedaSérgio Sacani
The document summarizes a simulation of the future collision between the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies. It finds that given current observational constraints on their distance, velocity, and masses:
1) The Milky Way and Andromeda are likely to collide in a few billion years, within the lifetime of the Sun.
2) During the interaction, there is a chance the Sun could be pulled into an extended tidal tail between the galaxies.
3) Eventually, after the merger is complete, the Sun would most likely be scattered to the outer halo of the merged galaxy at a distance over 30 kpc.
Mapping spiral structure on the far side of the Milky WaySérgio Sacani
Little is known about the portion of the Milky Way lying beyond the Galactic center at distances
of more than 9 kiloparsec from the Sun. These regions are opaque at optical wavelengths
because of absorption by interstellar dust, and distances are very large and hard to measure.
We report a direct trigonometric parallax distance of 20:4þ2:8
2:2 kiloparsec obtained with the Very
Long Baseline Array to a water maser source in a region of active star formation. These
measurements allow us to shed light on Galactic spiral structure by locating the ScutumCentaurus
spiral arm as it passes through the far side of the Milky Way and to validate a
kinematic method for determining distances in this region on the basis of transverse motions.
This document presents an analysis of transit spectroscopy observations of three exoplanets - WASP-12 b, WASP-17 b, and WASP-19 b - using the Wide Field Camera 3 instrument on the Hubble Space Telescope. The observations achieved almost photon-limited precision but uncertainties in the transit depths were increased by the uneven sampling of the light curves. The final transit spectra for all three planets are consistent with the presence of a water absorption feature at 1.4 microns, though the amplitude is smaller than expected from previous Spitzer observations possibly due to hazes. Due to degeneracies between models, the data cannot unambiguously constrain the atmospheric compositions without additional observations.
Hot Earth or Young Venus? A nearby transiting rocky planet mysterySérgio Sacani
Venus and Earth provide astonishingly different views of the evolution of a rocky planet, raising the question of why these two rock y worlds evolv ed so differently. The recently disco v ered transiting Super-Earth LP 890-9c (TOI-4306c, SPECULOOS-2c) is a key to the question. It circles a nearby M6V star in 8.46 d. LP890-9c receives similar flux as modern Earth, which puts it very close to the inner edge of the Habitable Zone (HZ), where models differ strongly in their prediction of how long rocky planets can hold onto their water. We model the atmosphere of a hot LP890-9c at the inner edge of the HZ, where the planet could sustain several very different environments. The resulting transmission spectra differ considerably between a hot, wet exo-Earth, a steamy planet caught in a runaway greenhouse, and an exo-Venus. Distinguishing these scenarios from the planet’s spectra will provide critical new insights into the evolution of hot terrestrial planets into exo-Venus. Our model and spectra are available online as a tool to plan observations. They show that observing LP890-9c can provide key insights into the evolution of a rocky planet at the inner edge of the HZ as well as the long-term future of Earth.
One tenth solar_abundances_along_the_body_of-the_streamSérgio Sacani
This document summarizes a study that analyzed spectra from four background quasars to measure the chemical abundances along the Magellanic Stream. Two key findings are:
1) The sightlines toward RBS 144 and NGC 7714 yielded metallicities of around 0.1 times the solar value, indicating a uniform low abundance along the main body of the Stream. This supports models where the Stream was stripped from the SMC around 1-2.5 billion years ago when the SMC had a metallicity of around 0.1 solar.
2) A higher metallicity of around 0.5 solar was found in the inner Stream toward Fairall 9, sampling a filament traced to the LMC. This shows the bifurc
The document describes simulations of a collision between the Moon and a companion moon approximately 1/3 the diameter of the Moon. The simulations found that at the modeled subsonic impact velocity, the companion moon did not form an impact crater but was instead accreted onto the Moon's surface. This added material contributed a hemispheric layer comparable to the extent and thickness of the lunar farside highlands. The collision also displaced the Moon's magma ocean to the opposite hemisphere, potentially explaining the observed concentration of KREEP materials. The findings suggest this late accretion event could explain the geological dichotomy between the lunar near and farside regions.
Similar to predicting the long term solar wind ion-sputtering source at mercury (20)
predicting the long term solar wind ion-sputtering source at mercury
1. Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–1595
Predicting the long-term solar wind ion-sputtering source at Mercury
Menelaos Sarantosa,Ã, Rosemary M. Killena
, Danheum Kimb
a
Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
b
GMV Space Systems, Rockville, MD 20850, USA
Accepted 10 October 2006
Available online 27 February 2007
Abstract
Maps of the precipitating solar wind proton flux onto Mercury’s surface are constructed using a modified Toffoletto–Hill (TH93)
model of the Hermean magnetosphere. Solar wind and IMF conditions around Mercury’s orbit near aphelion and perihelion,
respectively, were estimated by reanalyzing the Helios 40-s data for times when the spacecraft as in Mercury’s orbital range
(0.31–0.47 AU). Probability density estimates obtained in this way allow us to quantitatively predict the likely range of the ion-sputtering
source as a function of true anomaly angle of the planet. Results indicate that the sputtering source along open fieldlines increases
fourfold from aphelion to perihelion, and that significant precipitation along closed fieldlines is twice as likely at perihelion due to finite
Larmor radius effects. We conclude that ion sputtering is comparatively more important as a source for the Hermean exosphere at
perihelion.
r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Mercury; Solar wind–magnetosphere interaction; Ion precipitation; Helios data
1. Introduction
Sputtering caused by precipitating solar wind ions has
been suggested as a source mechanism for the Hermean
exosphere (Potter and Morgan, 1990; Killen et al., 2001).
This ion-sputtering source, which is regulated by the
interaction of the magnetosphere with the solar wind,
may vary rapidly during transient events such as CMEs or
due to quasi-Alfvenic, small-scale turbulence in the solar
wind which increases at small heliocentric distances
(Marsch, 1991; Zurbuchen et al., 2004). In contrast, the
long-term precipitating flux onto Mercury’s low altitudes
and surface is expected to vary smoothly from the
Hermean aphelion (0.47 AU) to perihelion (0.31 AU)
following the general increase of plasma density and
magnetic field in the ambient solar wind. This variation
of the solar wind input at Mercury due to orbital effects
has not been properly reflected in simulations previously
performed. We derived probability density estimates of the
long-term particle and field environments of Mercury
obtained by the Helios I and II spacecraft to predict the
most likely configurations of southward IMF. With these
likely boundary conditions for the magnetosphere, we
analytically computed the injected ion flux that precipitates
onto Mercury’s surface along open field lines close to
perihelion (0.31 AU) and aphelion (0.47 AU). The distribu-
tion function (phase space density) of ions injected
along open field lines was reconstructed using the fieldline
geometry derived by a modified Toffoletto and Hill (1993)
model of the Hermean magnetosphere.
Four basic types of magnetosphere models have been
developed for Mercury and used to study the solar wind
interaction with the magnetosphere: three analytic models
(Luhmann et al., 1998; Sarantos et al., 2001, Delcourt
et al., 2002, 2003), a semi-empirical model (Massetti et al.,
2003; Mura et al., 2005), a quasi-neutral hybrid model
(Kallio and Janhunen, 2003, 2004), and two MHD models
(Kabin et al., 2000; Zurbuchen et al., 2004; Ip and Kopp,
2002, 2004). In broad terms their predictions agree: because
Mercury’s internal magnetic field is small, and its atmo-
sphere is tenuous, solar wind ions can hit Mercury’s surface
along open field lines (magnetic lines that have one end
connected to the solar wind). Large parts of the surface are
ARTICLE IN PRESS
www.elsevier.com/locate/pss
0032-0633/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.pss.2006.10.011
ÃCorresponding author.
E-mail address: sarantos@astro.umd.edu (M. Sarantos).
2. thus exposed to the solar wind. The footprint of open
magnetic field lines (‘‘cusp’’) contracts or expands respond-
ing mainly to changes in the IMF. However, predictions of
different models regarding the extent of the cusps and the
amount of the plasma reaching the surface differ. These
differences arise partly because different models capture
different parts of the physical processes, and partly because
different input conditions were chosen.
It is very important to constrain boundary conditions
outside of the magnetosphere: the IMF and solar wind
conditions. For instance, although the IMF radial compo-
nent (Bx) is believed to be dominant at Mercury, many
models used do not incorporate the effects of the IMF Bx
(e.g., Luhmann et al., 1998; Delcourt et al., 2002, 2003;
Massetti et al., 2003; Mura et al., 2005). In such Bx-free
models it is necessary to apply high values of southward
IMF Bz to the magnetosphere to produce a realistically
open configuration. For example, Massetti presented cases
with IMF Bz ranging between À10 and À30 nT, while
Delcourt used a Bz ¼ À30 nT for his sodium photoion
tracings. All cases which have been modeled previously
tested either perihelion conditions ðN ¼ 60276 cmÀ3
Þ or
extreme, CME-like conditions (Nsw ¼ 100 cmÀ3
; vsw ¼
6002800 km=s) for the solar wind, and exploratory condi-
tions for the IMF. These conditions, although possible, are
not typical of the solar wind along the Hermean orbit, and
no realistic aphelion cases were modeled. Additionally,
previous papers have told us nothing about how often
these configurations occur. To complement these results, a
systematic approach was taken that establishes the most
probable ion-sputtering rate at Mercury’s extreme orbital
points.
2. Multivariate statistical analysis of Helios 40-s data in the
0.31–0.47 AU range
Probability estimates for input conditions for new
modeling runs of the Hermean magnetosphere and its
response to the solar wind were obtained by analyzing the
Helios I and II 40-s data within Mercury’s orbital range.
These spacecrafts explored the interplanetary medium
during the ascending phase of solar cycle 21 between
1975–1981. While previous work indicative of Mercury’s
space environment (Russell et al., 1988; Burlaga, 2001)
presented one-dimensional histograms of probability den-
sity functions for solar wind density, velocity, and IMF Bx,
By and Bz based on Helios data and investigated how these
parameters scale with heliocentric distance, our objective
was to visualize how these properties change concurrently
in the solar wind, i.e., evaluate multivariate probability
density estimates. For example, density and velocity in the
ambient wind are anti-correlated and therefore we must
select their most likely conditions simultaneously. How-
ever, with concurrent measurements missing in either the
plasma or magnetometer data, the high-dimensional data
are frequently incomplete: our sample size represents about
66 000 points at aphelion and 215 000 points at perihelion,
respectively. Thus, we did not have enough data for
adequate bin sizes in the five-dimensional space. Instead,
we treated the density–velocity and IMF Bx–Bz planes
independently. Our approach is essentially one of con-
structing bivariate histograms with the following bin sizes:
density, 1 cmÀ3
; velocity, 10 km/s; and IMF Bx, Bz, 1 nT.
More accurate probability density estimates can be
computed using an average shifted histogram method or
even a kernel density estimator (e.g., Martinez and
Martinez, 2002). However, for the purpose of choosing
self-consistent input conditions this present method will
suffice. The resulting probability density estimates of the
density–velocity plane appear in Figs. 1a (around Hermean
aphelion) and b (around Hermean perihelion), while those
for the IMF Bx–Bz plane are shown in Figs. 1c and d,
respectively. Also shown in Fig. 2 are one-dimensional
histograms describing probability densities at aphelion and
perihelion, respectively, for density, velocity, IMF jBxj and
IMF jBj.
As expected, the solar wind velocity was found to be
independent of orbital distance while the density varied
roughly as 1=r2
(Burlaga, 2001). A striking feature is that
the velocity distributions have modes around 342 km/s (see
Fig. 2b) for a wide range of likely density conditions
(20260 cmÀ3
at aphelion; 502120 cmÀ3
at perihelion).
Figs. 1a and b show that for the high-velocity cases, there
exists a small range of possible densities, but low density is
consistent with a wide range of velocity (400–700 km/s). In
spite of the extreme variability of the Hermean environ-
ment, the Helios data averaged over 40 s reveal that the
IMF Bx is the dominant component and that its variation
from aphelion to perihelion largely follows that of the total
field magnitude (compare Figs. 2c and d). The IMF Bx was
found to be directed towards the Sun (plus) as likely as
away from the Sun (minus). The distribution of IMF Bx is
bimodal (exhibiting towards and away sectors) but the
effect of its sign on the Hermean magnetospheric config-
uration is North–South symmetric (Sarantos et al., 2001).
For this reason, we only present the IMF jBxj in Figs. 1
and 2. Likewise, the IMF Bz was not preferentially directed
southward or northward as can be seen in Fig. 1.
Comparing Figs. 1c and d, the distribution function
(probability density) in the IMF Bx–Bz plane is signifi-
cantly wider at perihelion. Thus, strongly southward IMF
configurations ðBzo À 10 nTÞ are more likely at perihelion.
However, since the IMF Bx is seen to increase faster from
aphelion to perihelion than the IMF Bz, models that do not
incorporate Bx may be more descriptive of aphelion
conditions.
Consistent with this analysis of both the one-dimen-
sional and higher-dimensional data, we chose conditions
for comparative runs between aphelion and perihelion in
the following way: we sampled five velocities between 342
and 602 km/s, and chose self-consistent densities for which
the aphelion probability distribution function in the
density-velocity space is locally maximized. Three cases
with velocity 342 km/s were chosen reflecting the wide
ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–1595 1585
3. range of densities consistent with low-velocity solar wind.
At perihelion, velocity choices remained the same, while
aphelion densities were increased by a factor of (0.47/
0.31)2
, or 2.3. The maximum density modeled at either
aphelion and perihelion is somewhat higher than the
respective nominal conditions (32 cmÀ3
at aphelion;
73 cmÀ3
at perihelion). We tested IMF Bz cases ranging
from À5 to À 10 nT (southward), keeping By ¼ 5 nT
throughout these runs, and readjusting Bx from the
aphelion mode of À16 nT to the perihelion most likely
value of À34 nT. These decisions reflect the increase in total
field magnitude and density from aphelion to perihelion.
Our choices were made so that we can separately study the
effects on the precipitating flux of increasing particle
pressure and of the IMF turning more southward.
Table 1 summarizes the input conditions used in our
simulations.
The reader should be reminded that inherent in these
data are effects of the solar cycle activity. During the solar
cycle 21 (1975–1986), solar activity minimum occurred late
in 1975 and through the first half of 1976, while solar
maximum was reached in 1979–1980. The solar wind and
IMF parameters analyzed in this work were collected by
Helios over the first half of solar cycle 21 (1975–1981). In
contrast, missing measurements during the declining phase
of solar cycle activity (1981–1986) would result in wider
distributions for the IMF Bx, By, Bz, and total magnitude
jBj as indicated by an analysis of Pioneer Venus Orbiter
ARTICLE IN PRESS
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Density (cm )
Velocity(km/s)
Probability density (x10
−4
)
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9Perihelion: 0.31−−0.34 AU
0 10 20 30 40
−30
−20
−10
0
10
20
30
IMFBz(nT)
Probability density (x10
−4
)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
−30
−20
−10
0
10
20
30IMFBz(nT)
Probability density (x10 )
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Perihelion: 0.31−0.34 AUAphelion: 0.44−0.46 AU
0 20 40 60 80 100
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Density (cm )
Velocity(km/s)
Probability density (x10 )
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
IMF (nT) IMF (nT)
Fig. 1. Probability density of solar wind conditions at Mercury in the density- V (a,b) and IMF Bx–Bz (c,d) planes computed from Helios I and II 40-s
plasma and magnetometer data for times when the spacecrafts were within Mercury’s aphelion (a, c) (0.44–0.46 AU) and perihelion (b, d) (0.31–0.34 AU)
range, respectively. The bin sizes in these plots are the following: density, 1 cmÀ3
; velocity, 10 km/s; and IMF Bx, Bz, 1 nT. Note that while the distribution
of IMF Bx is bimodal (exhibiting towards and away sectors), a change in the polarity of Bx only reverses the hemisphere that is magnetically connected to
the solar wind. For this reason we only present the IMF jBxj in Figs. 1 and 2. Analysis of the high-dimensional data, along with the one-dimensional
probability densities shown in Fig. 2, allows us to quantify the likely range of the ion-sputtering source at Mercury using self-consistent solar wind input
for our magnetospheric model.
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–15951586
4. (PVO) and IMP-8 data (Luhmann et al., 1993) taken at 0.7
and 1 AU, respectively, over the entire solar cycle 21.
Particularly wider are the distributions of By and Bz, as
they respond not only to the variable solar surface field (as
Bx does), but also to the solar wind velocity, whose
distributions also exhibit a strong solar cycle dependence:
at solar activity minimum, high-speed streams are more
likely since they are associated with coronal holes.
However, the most likely values for the magnetic field
predicted here will be only slightly shifted towards higher
values, as the high-field tail counts ðjBzj420 nTÞ in PVO
data comprise at most 3% of all measurements during the
declining phase of the solar cycle (see Luhmann et al., 1993,
Fig. 14). Another source of temporal variation is intro-
duced into our sample because the solar wind parameters
used in the multivariate analysis were not collected at the
same rates throughout the area of interest during solar
activity minimum and maximum periods. As is evident in
Fig. 3, the data around perihelion were collected mostly at
solar minimum and during the ascending phase of the
cycle, while at aphelion there is a marked lack of data
collected at solar minimum. This explains why the high-
velocity, low-density area of the density–velocity plane
is patchy at aphelion (Fig. 1a) but smooth at perihelion
(Fig. 1b): this is the regime of the high-speed solar wind
that is persistent around solar minimum. While some bias
is possible due to the aforementioned issues and to others
not discussed here (e.g., possible sampling of respective
heliocentric distances at different heliolatitudes each year
by separate spacecraft), it should be stressed that our
purpose is not to assess effects of the solar activity cycle,
but to provide reasonable estimates of the likely range of
conditions encountered at Mercury’s aphelion and perihe-
lion due to the inherent variability of the solar wind.
3. Modeling the effects of injected ions: the distribution
functions
We compute the solar wind ion flux precipitating onto
Mercury’s surface by analytically calculating the distribution
function of ions injected through the magnetopause along
open field lines. Our formulation is similar to that of
Massetti et al. (2003) with three key upgrades: (1) our model
(TH93) handles the critically important IMF Bx, while the
ARTICLE IN PRESS
30 90 150 210
1
2
3
Density (cm )
Prob.density(x10)
200 400 600 800
2
4
6
Velocity (km/s)
Prob.density(x10)
0 20 40 60
2
4
6
IMF |Bx| (nT)
Prob.density(x10)
0 20 40 60
2
4
6
8
IMF |B| (nT)
Prob.density(x10)
Perihelion
Aphelion
Perihelion
Aphelion
Perihelion
Aphelion
Perihelion
Aphelion
Fig. 2. (Clockwise from top left panel) Probability density plots of solar
wind density, IMF jBxj, IMF jBj, and solar wind velocity derived from
Helios 40-s data around Mercury’s aphelion (0.44–0.46 AU) and
perihelion (0.31–0.34 AU). The velocity is seen to be largely uncorrelated
to orbital distance, while the density responds as 1=r2
. The change in IMF
jBxj follows that of the increase of the total field magnitude from aphelion
to perihelion, which confirms the dominance of the Bx component of the
IMF. These observations, coupled with plots in Fig. 1 showing how
density and velocity, as well as IMF Bx and Bz, change concurrently in the
solar wind, help fine tune our input conditions (Table 1).
Table 1
Input conditions for cases 1–5
Case Aphelion Nsw ðcmÀ3
Þ Vsw (km/s) Perihelion
Nsw ðcmÀ3
Þ
1 9 602 21
2 16 532 37
3 22 342 50
4 27 342 62
5 35 342 80
In each case, scenarios of IMF Bz ¼ À5 nT and Bz ¼ À10 nT were tested.
We chose Bx ¼ À16 nT at aphelion and Bx ¼ À34 nT at perihelion and
kept By ¼ 5 nT throughout these runs. A total of 20 cases were thus
modeled to predict the likely range of the ion-sputtering source that is
consistent with the Helios data.
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
10
12
14
16
18
20
Year
Relativesamplingfrequency(%)
Helios data used in multivariate statistics
Fig. 3. Temporal variation of the relative sampling rate of Helios 40-s
data around the Hermean aphelion and perihelion. It is seen that the solar
wind parameters used in the multivariate analysis were not collected at the
same rates throughout the area of interest during solar activity minimum
and maximum periods. Especially incomplete appears the coverage of the
solar min conditions around aphelion. Since high-speed streams prevail
around solar minimum, the high-velocity, low-density area of the
density–velocity plane is patchy at aphelion (Fig. 1a). In contrast, the
same area was well-covered at perihelion (Fig. 1b).
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–1595 1587
5. model used in the previous work (T96) does not; (2) we vary
input conditions from aphelion to perihelion self-consistently
according to our analysis of the Helios 40-s data in the
0.31–0.47 AU range; and (3) we vary the Alfve´ n velocity in
the solar wind self-consistently with our input, while Massetti
et al. used a constant Alfve´ n speed of 120km/s.
In the open magnetosphere, magnetosheath plasma gains
access into the magnetosphere mainly through the cusp
region. Usually visualized in the plane which contains the
magnetic field and bulk velocity, injected magnetosheath ions
have a characteristic D-shaped distribution function (phase
space density) predicted theoretically as a result of magnetic
tension of fieldlines that have reconnected with the IMF
(Cowley, 1982; Cowley and Owen, 1989; Lockwood and
Smith, 1994; Lockwood, 1995) and observed both in the
Earth’s dayside low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) (e.g.,
Fuselier et al., 1991) and, more recently, in the mid- and
high-latitude cusp by Interball-Tail (Fedorov et al., 2000),
POLAR (Fuselier et al., 2000), and Cluster (e.g., Bosqued
et al., 2001; Lavraud et al., 2004). Key features of terrestrial
cusp signatures, such as the cusp ion energy-latitude
dispersion and the mid-altitude energy-pitch angle V
signatures, have been successfully simulated (Onsager et al.,
1993, 1995; Xue et al., 1997) by assuming that ions near the
magnetopause are described by a truncated drifting bi-
Maxwellian (Hill and Reiff, 1977). Farther into the
magnetosphere, injected ion distribution functions evolve
away from a D-shaped to pancake or torus distributions as
parallel velocity is converted to perpendicular velocity due to
gradient and curvature drifts or as a result of convection
(e.g., Fedorov et al., 2000), and are usually accompanied by
populations of magnetospheric origin.
We may reconstruct the part of the ion distribution that
crosses the magnetopause (treated as a rotational disconti-
nuity) and eventually impacts the Hermean surface as
follows. The tangential stress balance on either side of the
rotational discontinuity requires that the plasma bulk flow,
~V
0
P;HT, in the de Hoffman–Teller frame (a frame that moves
with the discontinuity at the fieldline velocity, VHT) is field-
aligned at the Alfve´ n velocity, ~VA (Cowley, 1982; Cowley
and Owen, 1989). Thus, the peak velocity (bulk plasma
speed) in Mercury’s frame, ~VP;M, is ~VP;M ¼ ~VP;HT þ
~VHT ¼ ~VA þ ~VHT (1) (Wale´ n relation). Only magne-
tosheath ions having positive parallel (field-aligned)
velocities in the HT frame may enter the magnetosphere
in the northern hemisphere. In Mercury’s frame, this
corresponds to injected ions having a cutoff velocity Vmin
which is the projection of the fieldline velocity VHT along
the magnetospheric field direction:
Vmin ¼ VHT cos ySPH, (1)
while the peak and maximum velocities of the distribution
are given by
VP;k ¼ VHT cos ySPH þ VAÀSPH, ð2aÞ
VP;? ¼ VHT sin ySPH, ð2bÞ
Vmax ¼ VHT cos ySPH þ VAÀSPH þ VTH, (3)
where ySH and ySPH are the angles of the magnetic field on
the magnetosheath and magnetosphere sides with the local
tangent to the magnetopause (Fig. 4); , VTH is the thermal
velocity; and VAÀSH, VAÀSPH the Alfve´ n velocity in the
magnetosheath and magnetosphere, respectively. Last, the
fieldline (open flux tube) moves away from the reconnec-
tion site at the merging outflow velocity VHT:
VHT ¼ VSH À VAÀSH cos ySH. (4)
Thus, assuming Earth-like precipitation at Mercury, the
injected ion distribution function (phase space density) on
each open field line in a planet-centered frame can be
approximated as
f ðVÞ ¼ n
m
2pKTjj
1=2
m
2pKT?
exp À
mðVjj À VP;jjÞ2
2KTjj
À
mðV? À VP;?Þ2
2KT?
; VminpVjjpVmax,
f ðVÞ ¼ 0; VjjoVmin, ð5Þ
where n and m are the number density at the magnetopause
(sheath side) and mass of solar wind protons, respectively;
KTjj and KT? are the solar wind thermal energies parallel
and perpendicular to the local magnetic field; and Vjj and
V? are the particle’s velocity in the magnetosphere
immediately after injection. The differential particle flux
is then computed as
J ¼
2E2
m2
f ðVÞ. (6)
To compute (5) and (6) for each open fieldline, we need
(a) the magnetosheath plasma population at the injection
point, (b) an estimate of the anisotropy between KTjj and
KT? for sheath ions, (c) an assumption about what
percentage of sheath ions capable of transport actually
get reflected back into the magnetosheath, and (d) an
estimate of the loss cone angle at Mercury. The magne-
tosheath plasma density, velocity and temperature in (3)
are determined as polynomial fits derived from the
gasdynamic code of Spreiter and Stahara (1980). To be
consistent with the Massetti et al. (2003) formulation, we
ARTICLE IN PRESS
θSH
BSH
n
BSPH
t
θSPH
t
n
BSH
BSPH θSH
θSPH
LLBL Tail
Fig. 4. Schematic illustration of the angles ySH and ySPH in the Northern
hemisphere for (a) lines in the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and (b)
lines stretched tailwards. BSH and BSPH are the magnetic field vectors in
the magnetosheath and magnetosphere, respectively; t is the tangent and n
the normal unit vectors at the magnetopause.
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–15951588
6. used a fit for Mercury provided in that paper as follows:
n
nSW
¼ 3:3 À 3:22d þ 1:4d1:5
, ð7aÞ
T
TSW
¼ 1 þ 3ð1 À ðÀ0:249d þ 0:953d1=2
Þ2
Þ, ð7bÞ
V
VSW
¼ À0:249d þ 0:953d1=2
, ð7cÞ
where d ¼ dNOSE À dMP, the distance (measured along the
GSM X- axis) from the subsolar point ðdNOSEÞ to the point
where the field line crossed the magnetopause ðdMPÞ. Self-
consistent input for the asymptotic solar wind density and
velocity at Mercury is provided by our Helios analysis
(Table 1). The solar wind temperature TSW is regulated
self-consistently from aphelion to perihelion by employing
a relationship between the temperature and the speed for
the ambient solar wind developed by Lopez and Freeman
(1986):
TSW½Â103
KŠ ¼ ð0:0106VSW À 0:278Þ3
=R½AUŠ,
VSWo500 km=s,
TSW½Â103
KŠ ¼ ð0:77VSW À 265Þ=R½AUŠ,
VSWX500 km=s.
We assume that magnetosheath ions are anisotropic such
that the perpendicular thermal velocity is twice the parallel
thermal velocity, or T? ¼ 4Tjj, which is justified by global
hybrid simulations of ion velocity distributions in the
magnetosheath (Lin and Wang, 2002). In agreement with
Massetti et al. (2003), we assume that half of the
magnetosheath plasma on open fieldlines having the
required field-aligned velocity is pushed back into
the magnetosheath by the local Alfve´ n wave. Lastly, we
follow the above authors in their estimate that the loss cone
angle at Mercury is 351, and we map only those ions that
are injected with pitch angles up to 351off the local
magnetospheric field. However, we note that the loss cone
angle could be computed self-consistently by the model
from the field magnitude at the magnetopause and the
surface field footpoint of each open line.
In the way described above, we can map the injected
phase space density and particle flux along open field lines
at Mercury on the basis of the fieldline geometry (the
angles ySPH and ySH) predicted by an open magnetosphere
model. To this end, we have modified the Toffoletto and
Hill (1989, 1993) magnetosphere model as described in
results previously published (Sarantos et al., 2001; Killen
et al., 2001, 2004). Figs. 5 and 6 are an example of the field
line configuration computed with our model for an
aphelion configuration of the Hermean magnetosphere.
In this application we computed the precipitating flux onto
the Northern hemisphere, which is the hemisphere that
connects to the solar wind for the outward-directed Bx
chosen here. We are currently expanding our scheme to the
southern hemisphere, and will report those results along
with simulations of the resulting Hermean exosphere in a
future publication. For a dominant IMF Bx the total
precipitating flux is expected to be roughly twice as high on
the hemisphere that is magnetically connected to the solar
wind (Kallio and Janhunen, 2003).
We must note that the method of analytically computing
distribution functions of injected ions described above does
not accurately predict the latitudinal variation of the cusp
signatures. This is because, according to Liouville’s
theorem, the phase space density is conserved, not along
field lines, but along particle trajectories. Particles that
penetrate the magnetopause at the same injection point but
with different pitch angles or energies impact the surface at
different locations due to the velocity filter effect. A more
accurate approach, which was developed by Onsager et al.
(1993, 1995), requires particle tracing. However, the
advantages of our method are that it correctly determines
the integrated precipitating source along the entire open
area, without the need to know the electric field everywhere
in the magnetosphere, and that it has minimal computa-
tional cost (Lockwood and Smith, 1994). Thus, it allows us
to predict the long-term variation of the precipitating
source from aphelion to perihelion.
4. Results
Detailed maps of the precipitating solar wind flux for
likely aphelion cases are presented in Figs. 7a–d (cases 1
and 2). Comparative runs between aphelion and perihelion
ARTICLE IN PRESS
4
2
0
Z
–2
–4
2 0 –2
X
–4 –6
Fig. 5. Fieldline topology in the noon-midnight meridian plane produced
by the modified TH93 model of Mercury’s magnetosphere for a likely
aphelion configuration (density: 32 cmÀ3
; velocity; 430 km/s; IMF
½À16 5 À5Š nT). Note that, due to the dominance of the IMF Bx, open
fieldlines turn towards the solar wind in the North, but away from it in the
South for this antisunward-directed radial IMF.
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–1595 1589
7. are presented in Figs. 8a–d (cases 3 and 5). These maps
show that the precipitating source is generally extended in
longitude (60–701). In all cases, the flux peaks within a
short latitudinal band at the LLBL ðySPHo90Þ but drops
off rapidly by two orders of magnitude or more within
15–201of latitude away from the open–closed boundary.
This is easily understood from cusp signatures in the
Earth’s magnetosphere: the resulting bulk flow in the
magnetosphere is primarily away from the planet’s surface
along fieldlines that map to the tail, but towards the surface
and more field-aligned for lines that cross in the dayside.
However, a unique feature of the Hermean magnetosphere
arises because the dominant Bx component introduces a
dawn–dusk asymmetry in the shape of the cusps: the cusp
is very asymmetric for the IMF Bz ¼ À5 nT cases, but
begins to straighten and become more symmetric as Bz
becomes comparable to Bx (e.g., compare Figs.7a, c with
Figs. 7b, d). The first open fieldline is typically located at
40–451Northern latitude, but the cusp may be pushed
further equatorward to 25–301 for high-velocity, high Bz
conditions that are likely at perihelion (cases 1 and 2).
Maps showing the effective open area (fieldlines that
cross the magnetopause within 2RM down the tail) and of
the integrated precipitating source for likely conditions of
the solar wind and IMF, including Bz ranging from À5 to
À10 nT, are presented in Figs. 9a, b. Up to 20% of the
entire northern hemisphere could be open to the solar wind
for strongly southward conditions at perihelion. Increasing
dynamical pressure within the high-velocity regime results
in substantial change in the precipitating area, while
pressure increases in the low-velocity regime affect the
area available to the solar wind rather weakly. On the other
hand, the precipitating flux seems to vary little within
aphelion conditions (Fig. 7) but clearly increases at
perihelion (Fig. 8) both in the dayside and in the tail. In
fact, Fig. 9b demonstrates that the integrated precipitating
source ðsÀ1
Þ increases by a factor of 4 for comparative
southward IMF Bz ¼ À10 nT conditions from aphelion to
perihelion. In contrast, photon-stimulated desorption
(PSD), which is believed to be the main source mechanism
for the Hermean exosphere (McGrath et al., 1986; Madey
et al., 1998), is expected to increase as the solar UV flux by
1=r2
(quiet Sun conditions), or by a factor of 2.3 from
aphelion to perihelion (Smyth and Marconi, 1995). Clearly,
the modeled ion-sputtering source increases faster than
PSD. This result implies that a larger fraction of the
Hermean exosphere is due to sputtering caused by the solar
wind at perihelion. Note that to determine the relative
importance of these mechanisms, one must account for the
sputter yield as well as the source rates (see Killen et al.,
2001, 2004; Lammer et al., 2003, and references therein).
Consequently, the determination of the relative importance
of each mechanism requires the coupling of the magneto-
sphere model to a model of the Hermean exosphere (e.g.,
Killen et al., 2001). We do not presently compare yields for
these two processes nor for impact vaporization, which is
also a possible source mechanism for the exosphere;
instead, we only identify trends.
A comparison with the Massetti et al. (2003) predictions
for a comparable case with VA ¼ 120 km=s, Pdyn ¼ 20 nPa
and Bz ¼ À10 nT shows that inclusion of a strong Bx ¼
À16 nT increases fluxes by a factor of 3. This is expected
because the IMF Bx leads to increased precipitation at the
LLBL: fieldlines turn forward, cross the magnetopause
closer to the subsolar nose, and the bulk flow is more field-
aligned. The same physical reasons explain the increase
of the precipitating flux from aphelion to perihelion.
ARTICLE IN PRESS
0 100 200
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Longitude
Latitude
thetaSHEATH
(degrees)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
−200 −100 0 100 200
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Longitude
Latitude
theta
SPHERE
(degrees)
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fig. 6. (a) Variation of the angle ySH in the Northern hemisphere between
the magnetosheath field and the local magnetopause tangent as Hermean
fieldlines evolve away from the reconnection site for the configuration
shown in Fig. 5. Large angles ð490
Þ indicate lines turned towards the
solar wind while small angles ($201) map to the tail; (b) variation of the
angle ySPH between the magnetopause tangent and magnetospheric field at
different injection points. Small angles ðo90
Þ indicate the location of the
low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL); the cusp proper lies at 901. Based on
the topology of open field lines we may compute the distribution function
and flux of precipitating ions along the entire part of Mercury’s surface
that is open to the solar wind.
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–15951590
8. Compared to aphelion conditions, the solar wind flux is higher
due to the higher density, the magnetopause is closer to the
surface, and the maximum energy, Emax, of the injected ions
along each open line is higher both in the LLBL and,
especially, in the cusp proper for perihelion configurations.
The picture of precipitation presented by the analytical
model is incomplete because it tells us nothing about
precipitation occurring along closed field lines. Since the
Hermean magnetosphere is small, the Larmor radius of
solar wind protons is often expected to be comparable to
the magnetopause and bow shock distances thus resulting
in significant precipitation along closed fieldlines. This
effect is evident in simulations of solar wind impact
performed with a hybrid model (Kallio and Janhunen,
2003) showing that solar wind ions penetrate a larger area
than that directly connected to open field lines. Using the
Helios 40-s data for Mercury, we modeled the distribution
of the predicted TH93 magnetopause nose distance under
this input (Fig. 10a) and computed the distribution of
observed proton gyroradius in the solar wind. This allowed
us to quantify the probability of substantial precipitation
occurring due to the finite Larmor radius effect. Using an
arbitrary threshold of rL=dnose ¼ 0:4 for significant pre-
cipitation on closed fieldlines, we find that the tail of the
distribution is wider at perihelion by about a factor of 2 in
probability space (Fig. 10b). These results point out that
the precipitating source may frequently increase by more
than a factor of 4 from aphelion to perihelion when one
accounts for the higher likelihood of high Larmor radii of
solar wind ions for conditions typical at perihelion.
ARTICLE IN PRESS
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log10
Flux (cm s )
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log10
Flux (cm s )
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log
10
Flux (cm s )
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log10
Flux (cm s )
7.6
7.8
8
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
9.6
a b
c d
Fig. 7. Precipitating flux (log scale) of solar wind ions impacting Mercury’s surface for aphelion cases 1 (a, b) and 2(c, d) outlined in Table 1. Two sets of
plots are produced with Bz ¼ À5 nT (a, c) and Bz ¼ À10 nT (b, d) while Bx ¼ À16 nT and By ¼ 5 nT. Vertical columns (a vs c; b vs d) address the effects
of increasing pressure on the cusp location and precipitation flux for the same IMF, while horizontal rows (a vs b; c vs d) illustrate the effects of a more
southward IMF for given pressure. The open-closed boundary exhibits a strong dawn-dusk asymmetry for the Bz ¼ À5 nT as a result of the dominant Bx.
In turn, the cusp becomes more symmetric as Bz grows comparable to Bx (cases with Bz ¼ À10 nT).
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–1595 1591
9. 5. Conclusions
To quantify the systematic variability of the ion-
sputtering source between the Hermean aphelion and
perihelion, we reconstructed the distribution functions
and precipitating flux of solar wind protons in the open
field line region using a modified TH93 model of Mercury’s
magnetosphere. To determine realistic input conditions we
analyzed the Helios I and II 40-s data at times when the
spacecraft were within Mercury’s orbital range, and com-
puted multivariate probability density estimates (Fig. 1).
Consistent with these estimates, which are presented here
for the first time for Mercury, we modeled a wide variety of
conditions in velocity (342–602 km/s) and density space
(aphelion: 9235 cmÀ3
; perihelion: 21280 cmÀ3
) chosen
self-consistently (Table 1). For the IMF, we tested south-
ward conditions ðBz ¼ À5; À10 nTÞ coupled with the most
likely self-consistent IMF Bx measured by Helios (aphe-
lion: À16 nT; perihelion: À34 nT). We report that the
inclusion of the dominant IMF Bx component raised the
modeled precipitating flux by a factor of 3 over cases of
comparable density, velocity and IMF Bz but without Bx.
In addition, the likely range of the precipitating source is
amplified by a factor of 4 from aphelion to perihelion
conditions, while the area open to the solar wind increases
by a factor of 2. Therefore, we anticipate that ion
sputtering is a more important source for the Hermean
exosphere at perihelion.
Maps of the precipitation predicted by the analytical
model are simplified in three ways. First, they do not
ARTICLE IN PRESS
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log
10
Flux (cm s )
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log
10
Flux (cm s )
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log
10
Flux (cm s )
8.5
9
9.5
10
0 50 100 150 200
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Longitude
Latitude
Log
10
Flux (cm s )
7.8
8
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9
9.2
9.4
9.6
a b
c d
Fig. 8. Precipitating flux (log scale) of solar wind ions impacting Mercury’s surface for likely aphelion and perihelion conditions (cases 3 and 5 of Table 1).
These maps are produced with IMF Bz ¼ À10 nT and By ¼ 5 nT while at aphelion Bx ¼ À16 nT (a, c) and at perihelion Bx ¼ À34 nT (b, d). Responding
to the denser plasma and stronger field magnitude, the precipitating flux at perihelion clearly increases both in the dayside and in the tail.
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–15951592
10. describe contribution by precipitating solar wind ions on
closed field lines due to finite Larmor radius effects. To
supplement our predictions, we investigated how the ratio
of the observed proton gyroradius over the TH93-modeled
magnetopause distance changes from aphelion to perihe-
lion according to the Helios data. Results indicate that
significant precipitation on closed field lines is twice as
likely at perihelion than at aphelion. Thus, the finite
Larmor radius effect will tend to further accentuate the
increase in precipitation from aphelion to perihelion.
Second, the simple magnetopause pressure balance per-
formed in the modified TH93 model does not include
induction effects caused by finite surface conductivity.
Surface-induced currents, which may contribute 10% of
the interior field, oppose the transfer of magnetic flux from
the dayside to the tail ðBzo0Þ and may substantially affect
the magnetospheric topology and dynamics (Glassmeier,
2000; Grosser et al., 2004; Janhunen and Kallio, 2004). A
more realistic magnetopause may resist extreme compres-
sion by the solar wind. As the dayside magnetic field
intensifies at low altitudes due to surface induction
currents, injected particle trajectories will be affected by
the added magnetic field, which may prevent penetration to
the planetary surface. It may be that only field-aligned
particles precipitate down to the low-altitude ionosphere
ARTICLE IN PRESS
1 2 3 4 5
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Case index
EffectiveOpenArea
% of Northern Hemisphere
1 2 3 4 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
x 10
25
Case index
Precipitatingsource(s−1
)
Aphelion, Bz = −5nT
Aphelion, Bz = −10nT
Perihelion, Bz = −5nT
Perihelion, Bz = −10nT
Fig. 9. (a) Effective open area and (b) integrated precipitating source ðsÀ1
Þ
from the Hermean aphelion to perihelion for different conditions of the
solar wind and IMF. It is seen that when the IMF Bx is dominant, the
effect of IMF Bz is small provided that it is southward. The precipitating
source increases by a factor of 4 at perihelion, while the area available to
solar wind impact doubles.
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
0
5
10
15
20
Nose Distance from Center [Rm]
Frequency[%]
Helios 1 2 Data
Date: 1975 − 1981
Range: 0.31 − 0.46 AU
Weibull Fit
Dipole moment [nT R3
]
330
350
400
450
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
Probabilitydensity
High-end tail
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
0
0.05
0.1
Proton gyroradius/Magnetopause distance
Probabilitydensity
Main body of distribution
Aphelion
Perihelion
Aphelion: 2.4%
Perihelion: 5.6%
Fig. 10. (a) distribution of the modeled TH93 magnetopause nose
distance under the 40-s Helios input for different choices of magnetic
dipole moment consistent with the Mariner 10 data; (b) distribution
function of the solar wind Larmor radius to magnetopause distance for
dipole moment of 350 nT R3
. The tail of the distribution (upper panel) is
wider at perihelion by about a factor of 2. Thus, precipitation along closed
fieldlines due to the finite Larmor radius is expected to be twice as likely at
perihelion.
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–1595 1593
11. and surface, much like the case in the Earth’s magneto-
sphere. Lastly, the extent to which possible pickup of heavy
exospheric ions (e.g., Naþ
, Kþ
, Oþ
) may alter the solar
wind flow and affect the bow shock and magnetospheric
boundaries has not been considered here. Thus, our
computations should be considered as only a first-step
towards quantifying the response of the magnetospher-
e–exosphere system to extreme solar wind environments at
Mercury’s aphelion and perihelion.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the NASA Geospace
Sciences Program Grant NNG04G195G. Helios 40-s data
were kindly supplied by R. Schwenn. The original version
of the TH93 model was provided by F. Toffoletto (Rice
University). The authors would like to thank H. Rosen-
bauer and F. Neubauer for making Helios data available to
the scientific community, and P. Reiff for numerous
discussions and helpful comments on this paper.
References
Bosqued, J.M., Phan, T.D., Dandouras, I., Escoubet, C.P., Re´ me, H,
Balogh, A., Dunlop, M.W., Alcayde´ , D., Amata, E., Bavassano-
Cattaneo, M.-B., Bruno, R., Carlson, C., Dilellis, A.M., Eliasson, L.,
Formisano, V., Kistler, L.M., Klecker, B., Korth, A., Kucharek, H.,
Lundin, R., McCarthy, M., McFadden, J.P., Mo¨ bius, E., Parks, G.K.,
Sauvaud, J.-A., 2001. Cluster observations of the high-latitude
magnetopause and cusp: initial results from the CIS ion instruments.
Ann. Geophys. 19 (10), 1545–1566.
Burlaga, L.F., 2001. Magnetic fields and plasma in the inner heliosphere:
Helios results. Planet. Space Sci. 49, 1619–1627.
Cowley, S.W.H., 1982. The causes of convection in the Earth’s magneto-
sphere: a review of developments during the IMS. Rev. Geophys. 20,
531–565.
Cowley, S.W.H., Owen, C.J., 1989. A simple illustrative model of open
flux tube motion over the dayside magnetopause. Planet. Space Sci. 37
(11), 1461–1475.
Delcourt, D.C., Moore, T.E., Orsini, S., Millilo, A., Sauvaud, J.-A., 2002.
Centrifugal acceleration of ions near Mercury. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29
(12), 32.1–32.3.
Delcourt, D.C., Grimald, S., Leblanc, F., Berthelier, J.-J., Millilo, A.,
Mura, A., Orsini, S., Moore, T.E., 2003. A quantitative model of
planetary Naþ
contribution to Mercury’s magnetosphere. Ann.
Geophys. 21 (8), 1723–1736.
Fedorov, A., Dubinin, E., Song, P., Budnick, E., Larson, P., Sauvaud, J.-
A., 2000. Characteristics of the exterior cusp for steady southward
interplanetary magnetic field: interball observations. J. Geophys. Res.
105 (A7), 15945–15958.
Fuselier, S.A., Klumpar, D.M., Shelley, E.G., 1991. Ion reflection and
transmission during reconnection at the earth’s subsolar magneto-
pause. Geophys. Res. Lett. 18, 139–142.
Fuselier, S.A., Trattner, K.J., Petrinec, S.M., 2000. Cusp observations of
high- and low-latitude reconnection for northward interplanetary
magnetic field. J. Geophys. Res. 105 (A1), 253–266.
Glassmeier, K.-H., 2000. Currents in Mercury’s magnetosphere. In:
Ohtani, S.-I., Fujii, R., Hesse, M., Lysak, R. L., (Eds.), Magneto-
spheric Current Systems. American Geophysical Union Monthly. vol.
118, pp. 371–380.
Grosser, J., Glassmeier, K.H., Stadelmann, A., 2004. Induced magnetic
field effects at planet Mercury. Planet. Space Sci. 52 (14), 1251–1260.
Hill, T.W., Reiff, P.H., 1977. Evidence of magnetospheric cusp proton
acceleration by magnetic merging at the dayside magnetopause. J.
Geophys. Res. 82, 3623–3628.
Ip, W.-H., Kopp, A., 2002. MHD simulations of the solar wind
interaction with Mercury. J. Geophys. Res. 107 (A11), 1348–1355.
Ip, W.-H., Kopp, A., 2004. Mercury’s Birkeland current system. Adv.
Space Res. 33 (12), 2172–2175.
Janhunen, P., Kallio, E., 2004. Surface conductivity of Mercury provides
current closure and may affect magnetospheric symmetry. Ann.
Geophys. 22 (5), 1829–1837.
Kabin, K., Gombosi, T.I., DeZeeuw, D.L., Powell, K.G., 2000.
Interaction of Mercury with the solar wind. Icarus. 143, 397–406.
Kallio, E., Janhunen, P., 2003. Solar wind and magnetospheric ion
impact on Mercury’s surface. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(17), SSC 2.
1–2.4
Kallio, E., Janhunen, P., 2004. The response of the Hermean magneto-
sphere to the interplanetary magnetic field. Adv. Space Res. 33 (12),
2176–2181.
Killen, R.M., Potter, A.E., Reiff, P., Sarantos, M., Jackson, B.V., Hick,
P., Giles, B., 2001. Evidence for space weather at Mercury. J. Geophys.
Res. 106 (E9), 20509–20526.
Killen, R.M., Sarantos, M., Potter, A.E., Reiff, P., 2004. Source rates and
ion recycling rates for Na and K in Mercury’s atmosphere. Icarus 171
(1), 1–19.
Lammer, H., Wurz, P., Patel, M.R., Killen, R., Kolb, C., Massetti, S.,
Orsini, S., Milillo, A., 2003. The variability of Mercury’s exosphere by
particle and radiation induced surface release processes. Icarus 166 (2),
238–247.
Lavraud, B., Phan, T., Dunlop, M., Taylor, M., Cargill, P., Bosqued, J.,
Dandouras, I., Re` me, H., Sauvaud, J., Escoubet, C., Balogh, A.,
Fazakerley, A., 2004. The exterior cusp and its boundary with the
magnetosheath: cluster multi-event analysis. Ann. Geophys. 22 (8),
3039–3054.
Lin, Y., Wang, X.Y., 2002. Simulation of ion velocity distributions in the
magnetosheath. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (14), 1687–1690.
Lockwood, M., 1995. Location and characteristics of the reconnection X
line deduced from low-altitude satellite and ground-based observa-
tions, 1. Theory. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 21791–21802.
Lockwood, M., Smith, M.F., 1994. Low and middle altitude cusp particle
signatures for general magnetopause reconnection rate variations 1:
Theory. J. Geophys. Res. 99, 8531–8553.
Lopez, R.E., Freeman, J.W., 1986. Solar wind proton–temperature
relationship. J. Geophys. Res. 91, 1701.
Luhmann, J.G., Zhang, T.L., Petrinec, S.M., Russell, C.T., Gazis, P.,
Barnes, A., 1993. Solar cycle 21 effects on the Interplanetary Magnetic
Field and related parameters at 0.7 and 1.0 AU. J. Geophys. Res. 98
(A4), 5559–5572.
Luhmann, J.G., Russell, C.T., Tsyganenko, N.A., 1998. Disturbances in
Mercury’s magnetosphere: are the Mariner 10 ‘‘substorms’’ simply
driven? J. Geophys. Res. 103 (A5), 9113–9120.
Madey, T.E., Yakshinskiy, B.V., Ageev, V.N., Johnson, R.E., 1998.
Desorption of alkali atoms and ions from oxide surfaces: relevance to
origins of Na and K in the atmospheres of Mercury and the Moon. J.
Geophys. Res. 103, 5873–5887.
Marsch, E., 1991. MHD turbulence in the solar wind. In: Schwenn, R.,
Marsch, E. (Eds.), Physics of the Inner Heliosphere II. Springer,
Berlin, pp. 159–234.
Martinez, W., Martinez, A., 2002. Probability density estimation. In:
Computational Statistics Handbook with MATLAB. Chapman
Hall, CRC Press, London, Boca Raton, FL, pp. 259–316.
Massetti, S., Orsini, S., Milillo, A., Mura, A., deAngelis, E., Lammer, H.,
Wurz, P., 2003. Mapping of the cusp plasma precipitation on the
surface of Mercury. Icarus 166 (2), 229–237.
McGrath, M.A., Johnson, R.E., Lanzerotti, L.J., 1986. Sputtering of
sodium on the planet Mercury. Nature 323, 694–696.
Mura, A., Orsini, S., Milillo, A., Delcourt, D., Massetti, S., deAngelis, E.,
2005. Dayside Hþ
circulation at Mercury and neutral particle
emission. Icarus 175 (2), 305–319.
ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–15951594
12. Onsager, T.G., Kletzing, C.A., Austin, J.B., Mackiernan, H., 1993.
Model of magnetosheath plasma in the magnetosphere—Cusp
and mantle particles at low-altitudes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 20 (6),
479–482.
Onsager, T.G., Chang, S.W., Perez, J.D., Austin, J.B., Janoo, L.X., 1995.
Low-altitude observations and modeling of quasi-steady magneto-
pause reconnection. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 18831–18843.
Potter, A.E., Morgan, T.H., 1990. Evidence for magnetospheric effects on
the sodium atmosphere of Mercury. Science 248, 835–838.
Russell, C.T., Baker, D.N., Slavin, J.A., 1988. The magnetosphere of
Mercury. In: Vilas, F., Chapman, C.R., Matthews, M.S. (Eds.),
Mercury. University of Arizona Press, Tucson, pp. 514–561.
Sarantos, M., Reiff, P.H., Hill, T.W., Killen, R.M., Urquhart, A.L., 2001.
A Bx-interconnected magnetosphere model for Mercury. Planet. Space
Sci. 49, 1629–1635.
Smyth, W.H., Marconi, M.L., 1995. Theoretical overview and modeling of
the sodium and potassium atmospheres of Mercury. Astrophys. J. 441,
839–864.
Spreiter, J.R., Stahara, S.S., 1980. A new predictive model for determining
solar wind-terrestrial planet interactions. J. Geophys. Res. 85, 6769–6777.
Toffoletto, F.R., Hill, T.W., 1989. Mapping of the solar wind electric field
on the earth’s polar caps. J. Geophys. Res. 94, 329–347.
Toffoletto, F.R., Hill, T.W., 1993. A nonsingular model of the open
magnetosphere. J. Geophys. Res. 98, 1339–1344.
Xue, S., Reiff, P.H., Onsager, T.G., 1997. Mid-altitude modeling of cusp
ion injection under steady and varying conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett.
24 (18), 2275–2278.
Zurbuchen, T.H., Koehn, P., Fisk, L.A., Gombosi, T., Gloeckler, G.,
Kabin, K., 2004. On the space environment of Mercury. Adv. Space
Res. 33 (11), 1884–1889.
ARTICLE IN PRESS
M. Sarantos et al. / Planetary and Space Science 55 (2007) 1584–1595 1595