Predicting SEO Growth in an Environment of Extreme Uncertainty
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Hope is not a strategy. Often SEO professionals make unrealistic forecasts or they try to avoid making them altogether because of the extreme uncertainty of the search environment. The lack of clear KPIs and achievable milestones is one of the reasons that make a budget owner skeptical when it comes to SEO. With all the data that is readily available, we are now able to clarify the SEO opportunity lies ahead for a brand and estimate growth over time, in a comprehensible and realistic way.
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Predicting SEO Growth in an Environment of Extreme Uncertainty
- 1. Predicting SEO Growth in an Environment of Extreme Uncertainty Cosmin Negrescu CEO SEOmonitor.com @ncosmin @seomonitor
- 2. We have more data than ever. @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 5. Fact (data): Twice as many people search for contact lenses in October compared to September @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 6. Observation: That trend is followed by the search term “colored lenses” @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 7. Insight! Halloween drives interest in colored contact lenses and impacts the performance of the entire category. @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com Halloween!
- 8. A different, more insightful way of looking at SEO performance which enables us to realistically predict it. @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 9. This approach was developed based on the experience and challenges we faced over the past 4 years as an SEO-focused agency.
- 10. It helps us successfully run over 100 campaigns per year with 90% performing above the targets.
- 11. I. Understanding Organic Traffic @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 12. Organic Traffic = visits from branded + non-branded searches
- 13. Branded Org. Traffic = Direct Traffic Non-Branded Org. Traffic = SEO Traffic
- 14. Non-Branded Traffic is influenced by Search Volume Trends & Visibility
- 15. Entire GSC keyword list (3) Search Volume 1st of Oct. Rank 1st of Nov. Rank Keyword #1 10.000 5 1 Keyword #2 5.000 5 5 Keyword #3 3.000 30 100+ SUM 18.000 Is it performing better in November? @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 16. Entire GSC keyword list (5) Search Volume Rank 01 Oct. Rank 01 Nov. Keyword #1 10.000 5 1 Keyword #2 5.000 5 5 Keyword #3 3.000 30 100+ Keyword #4 2.000 100 10 Keyword #5 1.000 3 21 SUM 21.000 How about now? @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 17. Entire GSC keyword list (3) Search Volume Rank 01 Oct. Impressions Oct. Rank 01 Nov. Impressions Nov. Keyword #1 10.000 5 7.000 1 10.000 Keyword #2 5.000 5 3.500 5 3.500 Keyword #3 3.000 30 0 100+ 0 SUM 18.000 10.500 13.500 @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 18. Entire GSC keyword list (3) Search Volume Rank 01 Oct. Impressions Oct. Rank 01 Nov. Impressions Nov. Keyword #1 10.000 5 7.000 1 10.000 Keyword #2 5.000 5 3.500 5 3.500 Keyword #3 3.000 30 0 100+ 0 SUM 18.000 10.500 13.500 Visibility Score October Change November Total Search Vol. 18.000 - 18.000 Total Est. Impressions 10.500 3.000 13.500 Visibility Score (Imp / Search Vol.) 58 % 17 % 75 %
- 19. Done at scale
- 20. II. From Data to Insights @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 21. Fact: Non-brand Organic Traffic grows Observations: • Visibility stays constant • Seasonality is behind the growth @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 22. Fact: Non-brand Organic Traffic grows Observations: • Searches decrease by ~40% • Visibility increases 3 times
- 23. Content Marketing Campaign Insight: Our Content Marketing Campaign had a great impact on the website’s visibility in SERP @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 24. Fact: Traffic drop on 17th of Oct Observation: • Visibility drops accordingly Insight: the poor SEO performance is due to the malware issue
- 26. Remember: Non-brand organic traffic is influenced by Visibility and Search Trends 1. Non-brand Organic Traffic trend without any change in Visibility @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 27. To forecast the traffic considering that there will be no change in Visibility, we simply extrapolate it with the seasonality of the keywords. @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 28. @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com 2. Setting the SEO goal We can now set SEO goals in terms of new avg. ranks for our keywords. Eg: the keywords in 2nd page to get in top10 in 12 months. The Visibility Score will change accordingly.
- 29. Entire GSC keyword list (3) Search Volume Current Rank Current Impressions Targeted rank Targeted Impressions Keyword #1 10.000 5 7.000 1 10.000 Keyword #2 5.000 5 3.500 3 3.500 Keyword #3 3.000 30 0 3 0 SUM 18.000 10.500 13.500 @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 30. Entire GSC keyword list (3) Search Volume Current Rank Current est. clicks Targeted rank Targeted est. clicks Keyword #1 10.000 5 560 1 3.300 Keyword #2 5.000 5 280 3 550 Keyword #3 3.000 30 0 3 330 SUM 18.000 840 4.180 3. Calculate additional visits @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com
- 31. 4. Plot the data and get the Overview
- 32. • put their idea and plan on paper • convince investors to put their money at stakes • motivate their team to follow This turns an SEO pitch into an “offer they can’t refuse”
- 33. Let’s sum it up: 1. Track Non-brand Organic Traffic (GSC with filters) 2. Track Search Trends and Visibility Score for the entire GSC keyword list & new targeted keywords 3. Put all of them in a chart and add extra information that might clarify why there’s a change in Visibility (algo updates, GSC messages, 404s, etc). 4. Estimate how the Non-brand Organic Traffic will change if there is no change in Visibility (extrapolate it using seasonality) 5. Estimate how the Non-brand Organic Traffic will change if you add an estimated increase in Visibility using current and targeted ranks, standard CTRs and Search Volumes at a keyword level.
- 34. Key benefits from using this approach: • We gain control • It makes SEO tangible • It helps us speak the language of a budget owner (CEO, Marketing Manager etc.) • We can tell if we’re on track or not at all times • We can learn what works and what doesn’t from analyzing the results of our actions @ncosmin @seomonitorSEOmonitor.com