The present volume and rapid growth of solar power has to be taken into account by policy makers: the world should prepare for Massive Solar Power!

1. Prepare for
Massive Solar Power
Kees van der Leun
Member of the Board
Poznań, 10 December 2008

3. Terschelling, NL, 1983

4. Barges and boats, NL, 1990

5. Amersfoort, NL, 1996

7. Greenpeace campaign, NL, 2000

8. Luxembourg, 2003

10. Germany, 2004

12. Flanders, Belgium, 2007

13. Aznalcóllar, Spain, 2008

15. Pontenure, Italy, now

16. Fact 1: Solar grows,
much faster than you think!
5.0
Gigawatt per year source : econcern
4.0
3.0
2.0 solar cells: +44% per year
1.0
0.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

17. Fact 1: Solar grows,
much faster than you think!
1000.0 source : econcern
Gigawatt per year
100.0
10.0
s o lar c e lls : +44% pe r ye ar
1.0
0.1
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

18. Fact 1: Solar grows,
much faster than you think!
1000.0 source : econcern
Gigawatt per year
100.0
10.0
s o lar c e lls : +44% pe r ye ar
1.0
0.1
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

19. Fact 1: Solar grows,
much faster than you think!
1000.0 source : econcern
total new power plants: 190 GW per year
100.0
10.0
s o lar c e lls : +44% pe r ye ar
1.0
0.1
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

20. Fact 1: Solar grows,
much faster than you think!
1000.0 source : econcern
total new power plants: 190 GW per year
100.0
10.0
s o lar c e lls : +44% pe r ye ar IEA WEO 2008
1.0
0.1
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

21. Fact 1: Solar grows,
much faster than you think!
1000.0 source : econcern
total new power plants: 190 GW per year
100.0
P ho to n
10.0
s o lar c e lls : +44% pe r ye ar IEA WEO 2008
1.0
0.1
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

22. Fact 2: Solar is big now,
and will be HUGE by 2012
•PV systems industry 2008:
–€ 25 billion turnover
–3% of total power capacity added
–500,000 jobs
•PV systems industry 2012:
–€ 60 billion turnover
–12% of total power capacity added
–1,200,000 jobs
•European PV industry: 12% of EU generation by
2020, meaning 350 GW installed

23. Fact 3: Solar will often be
the cheapest source of electricity
source : econcern
Euro/W (module price)
10
1980
Progress ratio = 80%
2,5 €/W
2009
1
1 Euro = 1,2 USD 1 10 100 1.000 10.000 100.000
Source: PSE GmbH, 2005
Cumulative shipments MW

24. Grid parity in Europe – 2007
irradiation PV generation
irradiation PV generation
(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600
600 0.83
0.50
1000
1000 0.50
0.30
1400
1400 0.36
0.21
1800
1800 0.28
0.17
insolation maps: PVGIS

25. Grid parity in Europe – 2010
irradiation PV generation
(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.50
1000 0.30
1400 0.21
1800 0.17
Grid parity data: ECN

26. Grid parity in Europe – 2015
irradiation PV generation
(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.42
1000 0.25
1400 0.18
1800 0.14

27. Grid parity in Europe – 2020
irradiation PV generation
(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.42
0.33
1000 0.25
0.20
1400 0.18
0.14
1800 0.14
0.11

28. Grid parity in Europe – 2030
irradiation PV generation
irradiation PV generation
(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600
600 0.42
0.33
0.17
1000
1000 0.25
0.20
0.10
1400
1400 0.18
0.14
0.07
1800
1800 0.14
0.11
0.06

29. Fact 4: Solar will run into system
barriers soon
source : econcern
Power produced
Output
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Manufacturing capacity Demand constraints

30. To do 1:
Take solar through the growth phase
•Establish and maintain
stable support systems (feed-in tariffs)
•Intensify work on regulatory issues and
grid access
•Mitigate effects of credit crunch

31. To do 2:
Adapt your industry

32. Metallurgical grade silicon production

33. Pure silicon production

34. Wafer production
Ingot casting Wafer sawing

35. Cell production

36. Cell production

37. Module production

38. Installation: local jobs

39. Services: local jobs
Services:
• Internet
• VOIP
• Education
• Football matches

40. To do 3:
Forget about baseload
source : econcern
Kuwait, MEW grid, 2 september 2006
Middle East, 2 September 2006
9500 50
45
9000
40
Maximum power in MW
(30 minute intervals)
Ambient temperature
8500 35
8000 30
in o C
25
7500 20
7000 15
Max load (MW) 10
6500 Temperature 5
6000 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Time of day

41. To do 4:
Tune the grid to solar
•Grid design based on old system thinking
•Solar helps in cooling peak, but requires new grid
philosophy
•Paperwork and physical grid connection already
bottleneck now
•Solar operators often required to pay substations

42. Residential house (current situation)
power (kW) from MEWsource : econcern
Outside day/night temp: 60
peak power@14h = 55 kW
50
49ºC / 31ºC
40
30
Inside 20
temp. 20ºC
10
995 kWh/day = 1.5 barrel/day
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
time of day

43. Residential house (+ insulation)
power (kW) from MEWsource : econcern
Outside day/night temp: 60
peak power@14h = 35 kW, 36% ↓
50
49ºC / 31ºC
40
30
Inside 20
temp. 20ºC
10
750 kWh/day = 1.1 barrel/day
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
time of day

44. Residential house (+ solar PV)
power (kW) from MEWsource : econcern
Outside day/night temp: 60
peak power@14h = 21 kW, 62% ↓
50
49ºC / 31ºC
40
25 kW 30
Inside 20
temp. 20ºC
10
608 kWh/day = 0.9 barrel/day
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
time of day

45. Residential house (+ cold storage)
power (kW) from MEWsource : econcern
Outside day/night temp: 60
peak power@14h = 12 kW, 78% ↓
50
49ºC / 31ºC
40
30
Inside 20
temp. 20ºC
10
>608 kWh/day >0.9 barrel/day
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
time of day

46. And next: increase the share of
electricity in world energy demand

47. Conclusion
•Sustainable technology develops much faster than
policy makers think
•Solar power will become the dominant source of
electricity worldwide. Zero emissions, local jobs!
•This involves a major global effort
–in the electricity system: stronger grids, no new baseload
–in industry: manufacturing, construction