Slides presented at NFU Brexit Conference/Consultation Event, Worcestershire, 3 February 2017 Link to Conference Press Release: http://www.nfuonline.com/about-us/our-offices/west-midlands/worcestershire/farmers-discuss-the-future-of-farming-post-brexit/

1. Post Brexit
Farming
Charles Cowap
Harper Adams University
3 February 2017

2. Brexit: What Should We Do?
• Ostrich
• Complete strategic review and fundamental
business reshaping
• Disinvest

3. The Brexit Ball
• Knowns
• Known Unknowns
• Unknown Unknowns

4. Danger
Students At Work
Remember the
Corn Production Act 1917
Agriculture Act 1920
Agriculture Act 1921

5. PAY NO SAY
STAND ALONE
NEW EUNO EU
SHAFTED
NEW WORLD
ORDER
HOBBLED
WRECK
North-South:
The EU does not change
much as a result of Brexit.
UK signs a deal on EU
terms (North) or ‘hard’
Brexit(South)
East-West:
Brexit provides a strong
stimulus for EU Reform.
EU emerges as a stronger
and more unified entity
(East) or falls apart (West)
Take Aim
at the
Brexit
Dartboard
© Charles Cowap 2016

6. GET FIT AND ENGAGE

7. GETTING FIT – THE BEST AND THE REST
How is West Mids Looking?
OUTPUTS, INPUTS AND INCOME PER FARM
WEST MIDLANDS FBS FOR 2015 (1.2.2017)
Area of farm (ha) 128
Acres 316
Total Output 207,363
Total Variable Costs 85,233
Farm Gross Margin 122,130
Farm Overheads 135,615
'Profit' -13,485
BPS income included above -20,599
'Profit' before BPS -34,084
WEST MIDLANDS FBS FOR 2015 (1.2.2017)
Farmer net worth 1,807,766
Investment 'return' -1%

8. Perform! 1. Large Dairy Farms (£/Ha)
Average
Size 181
Gross Farm Output 3,404
Gross Profit 1,557
Overheads 1,480
Net Profit 76
Top 25%
157
4,147
2,157
1,469
689
BPS and Ag Env included above 174 164
Net Profit before BPS etc -98 525
FBS Benchmarking Data Years Ending late 2015/early 2016

9. Perform! 2. Large Cereal Farms
FBS Benchmarking Data Years Ending late 2015/early 2016
Average
Size 500
Gross Farm Output 1,468
Gross Profit 981
Overheads 792
Net Profit 189
Top 25%
524
1,579
1,158
699
459
BPS and Ag Env included above 209 211
Net Profit before BPS etc -20 249

10. BPS and Ag Env included above 284 161
Net Profit before BPS etc 1,473 3,045
Top 25%
63
17,535
11,716
8,509
3,207
Average
Size 54
Gross Farm Output 15,671
Gross Profit 10,148
Overheads 8,390
Net Profit 1,758
Perform! 3. Horticulture
FBS Benchmarking Data Years Ending late 2015/early 2016

11. Engage!
Huffington Post

12. Value from farming
• Remember the Modulation Debate, December 2013?
• Modulation at 9% or 15%?
• RSPB and others said CAP was costing £400 per household and Pillar 2
payments give far better value for money so Defra must strike at 15%
to Pillar 2 …..
• You said farmers would be ruined at anything more than 9% to Pillar 2
• Owen Paterson split the difference at 13 ….

13. The Farming Argument was all about farmer
fortunes
• And not about Value at all
• But Consider our milk and cheese consumption for example
• Average dairy product consumption about 4 litres of raw milk a week, 220 l pa
• Average yield 7,327 litres per cow
• Each cow therefore supports 36 people
• Cow needs 0.5 ha
• Average herd 125 cows  feeding 4,500 people
• Direct BPS etc say £210/ha
• Cost per consumer for dairy product support £2.92
• And if you took it away??

14. How Many People do you feed?

15. To conclude:
• Use what we know
• Get in shape and stay in shape
• Promote R&D
• And especially its uptake!
• Promote the value of farming
• Nutrition
• Welfare
• Water
• Economy
• Farming and food production is also an ecosystem service in its own right
• Engage with the public
• The message: UK Farming Benefits UK Consumers
• UK Farming Gives Value for Money  Make Sure It Does!
What did you do today
to make the public and
politicians admire British
Farming?
And how would anybody
know?