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Political Feasibility for Policy Adoption: A case study of Crackdown on Smoking in Russia

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Smriti Sharma
Smriti Sharma

This document summarizes several frameworks for analyzing public policy, including interest group theory, institutional rational choice, path dependence, advocacy coalition framework, social construction framework, multiple streams framework, and punctuated equilibrium. It outlines key elements of each framework and implications for policy analysis. For example, it states that interest group theory posits that concentrated interests are advantaged over diffuse interests, and organized interests over unorganized interests. This implies the need to mobilize or create organizations to represent diffuse stakeholders.

Health & Medicine
1 of 15
Artwork by El Lissitzky. Beat the Whites with the Red Wedge, 1919 Presented by Selim Erbagci, Smriti Sharma, and Tom Nicholson
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Interest Group Theory Concentrated interests advantaged over diffused interests; organized interests advantaged over unorganized interests Mobilize or create organizations to represent diffuse interests; anticipate possible post- adoption mobilization of diffused interests Institutional rational choice Institutions shape the circumstances of choice facing individuals pursuing their own interests Understand the institutions that make and implement policies; look for changes in institutions to change policy outcomes
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Path (state) dependence Accumulated policies create externalities that affect the viability of policy alternatives in the future Recognize that quick fixes or failed proposals may limit future options; anticipate the creation of policy constituencies Advocacy coalition framework Relatively stable networks of actors sharing core and policy beliefs oppose each other to make major change difficult in policy subsystems Produce evidence to change policy beliefs; take advantage of external shocks to coalitions; seek negotiation to end hurting stalemates
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Social construction framework Both political power and the social construction of targeted groups as deserving or undeserving affect the distribution of benefits and burdens Frame policies to take advantage of favorable social constructions; look for ways to change social constructions Multiple streams framework Political, policy, and problem streams join at critical times to create opportunities, or policy windows, for major policy change Prepare for policy windows by having well-analyzed alternatives on hand; look for ways to help open policy windows
Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Punctuated equilibrium Limitations in information processing hinder proportionate responses so that policy tends to be stable except during major catch- ups Anticipate stability occasionally punctuated by major policy changes
Reuters video link : here
Photo: Maurice Michael/Flickr
Photo by Reuters
3Background: Cigarette smoking in the Russian Federation • Life expectancy 62 years for men, 74 for women • Deaths per year due to smoking-related causes: 440,000 • 44 million citizens addicted, 40% Russians smoke regularly • “Every year equivalent of a large city disappears” – Dmitry Medvedev • 97th place out of 145 in WHO/World Bank index compiled by Bloomberg and Kommersant (August 2012), largely due to alcohol and cigarettes. • Birth rate not at pace with death rate Photo by Reuters Source: President Medvedev's address
3Background: Proposals from President Medvede:v in response to cigarette smoking in Russia: • Ban on smoking in public places • Regulate tobacco advertising • New taxes on price of cigarettes 1. Excise duty of 40% by 2013 & 2014 2. Hike tax by 10% every year after 2015 Photo by Reuters
Russian demographic context: Precipitous decline and recent rebound Source: Federal Governmental Statistics Service, Forbes Analysis , 7/06/2012
Cigarette Industry in the Russian Federation Market Size - $22 billion Imperial Tobacco 17% BAT 20% Phillip Morris 26% Japan Tobacco 37%
Political Feasibility Cigarette Ban and Tax Package Actors Beliefs Motivations Resources 1.Russian cigarette companies Sobranie (Russian) Against Profit, market access Media access, threat of layoffs 2. Foreign Cigarette companies Japan Tobacco International, Phillip Morris, British American Tobacco, and Imperial Tobacco Against Profit, market access Media access, embassies 3. Executive branch Putin, Medvedev For Health indicators, life expectancy Powerful executive, obedient parliament 4. Legislature United Russia, deputy Gerasimenko For Health indicators, political considerations Political cover from executive branch 5. Retail business owners cafes, restaurants, assns Against Profit, employment threat of layoffs, media access 6. Consumer rights groups Consumers Union of Russia, official consumer watchdog Leaning For Health indicators and consumer rights media access 7. Health authorities Minister of Health For Health indicators demographic evidence 8. Advertisers and clients PCP (Russian Advertising Council) Against Profit stream, representing members lobbying power and media access 9. Finance ministry For Tax base, life expectancy, public health spending Cabinet level power
Potential vectors for engagement on issue of cigarette ban and increased taxation • Executive Branch • Legislature (Duma and Federal Assembly) • Regional/Federalist approach • Media campaign • Pressure from business community Choosing a sphere of engagement: the Russian smoking ban Photo by Reuters Photo:AP

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Political Feasibility for Policy Adoption: A case study of Crackdown on Smoking in Russia

  • 1. Artwork by El Lissitzky. Beat the Whites with the Red Wedge, 1919 Presented by Selim Erbagci, Smriti Sharma, and Tom Nicholson
  • 2. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Interest Group Theory Concentrated interests advantaged over diffused interests; organized interests advantaged over unorganized interests Mobilize or create organizations to represent diffuse interests; anticipate possible post- adoption mobilization of diffused interests Institutional rational choice Institutions shape the circumstances of choice facing individuals pursuing their own interests Understand the institutions that make and implement policies; look for changes in institutions to change policy outcomes
  • 3. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Path (state) dependence Accumulated policies create externalities that affect the viability of policy alternatives in the future Recognize that quick fixes or failed proposals may limit future options; anticipate the creation of policy constituencies Advocacy coalition framework Relatively stable networks of actors sharing core and policy beliefs oppose each other to make major change difficult in policy subsystems Produce evidence to change policy beliefs; take advantage of external shocks to coalitions; seek negotiation to end hurting stalemates
  • 4. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Social construction framework Both political power and the social construction of targeted groups as deserving or undeserving affect the distribution of benefits and burdens Frame policies to take advantage of favorable social constructions; look for ways to change social constructions Multiple streams framework Political, policy, and problem streams join at critical times to create opportunities, or policy windows, for major policy change Prepare for policy windows by having well-analyzed alternatives on hand; look for ways to help open policy windows
  • 5. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for Policy Analysis Punctuated equilibrium Limitations in information processing hinder proportionate responses so that policy tends to be stable except during major catch- ups Anticipate stability occasionally punctuated by major policy changes
  • 9. 3Background: Cigarette smoking in the Russian Federation • Life expectancy 62 years for men, 74 for women • Deaths per year due to smoking-related causes: 440,000 • 44 million citizens addicted, 40% Russians smoke regularly • “Every year equivalent of a large city disappears” – Dmitry Medvedev • 97th place out of 145 in WHO/World Bank index compiled by Bloomberg and Kommersant (August 2012), largely due to alcohol and cigarettes. • Birth rate not at pace with death rate Photo by Reuters Source: President Medvedev's address
  • 10. 3Background: Proposals from President Medvede:v in response to cigarette smoking in Russia: • Ban on smoking in public places • Regulate tobacco advertising • New taxes on price of cigarettes 1. Excise duty of 40% by 2013 & 2014 2. Hike tax by 10% every year after 2015 Photo by Reuters
  • 11. Russian demographic context: Precipitous decline and recent rebound Source: Federal Governmental Statistics Service, Forbes Analysis , 7/06/2012
  • 12. Cigarette Industry in the Russian Federation Market Size - $22 billion Imperial Tobacco 17% BAT 20% Phillip Morris 26% Japan Tobacco 37%
  • 13.
  • 14. Political Feasibility Cigarette Ban and Tax Package Actors Beliefs Motivations Resources 1.Russian cigarette companies Sobranie (Russian) Against Profit, market access Media access, threat of layoffs 2. Foreign Cigarette companies Japan Tobacco International, Phillip Morris, British American Tobacco, and Imperial Tobacco Against Profit, market access Media access, embassies 3. Executive branch Putin, Medvedev For Health indicators, life expectancy Powerful executive, obedient parliament 4. Legislature United Russia, deputy Gerasimenko For Health indicators, political considerations Political cover from executive branch 5. Retail business owners cafes, restaurants, assns Against Profit, employment threat of layoffs, media access 6. Consumer rights groups Consumers Union of Russia, official consumer watchdog Leaning For Health indicators and consumer rights media access 7. Health authorities Minister of Health For Health indicators demographic evidence 8. Advertisers and clients PCP (Russian Advertising Council) Against Profit stream, representing members lobbying power and media access 9. Finance ministry For Tax base, life expectancy, public health spending Cabinet level power
  • 15. Potential vectors for engagement on issue of cigarette ban and increased taxation • Executive Branch • Legislature (Duma and Federal Assembly) • Regional/Federalist approach • Media campaign • Pressure from business community Choosing a sphere of engagement: the Russian smoking ban Photo by Reuters Photo:AP