IPCC 07 estimate was up to 60 cm of sea level rise during the century.Recently available information increases the estimate upwards to 2 m.Substantial implications for coastal cities and coastalzones in general. Contingent planning is urgent, needsto start now.The economic implications are large, the value of infrastructure already in a 1m flood zone is in 100s of billions.
As we have seen, the frequency and intensity of flooding and heavy downpours is increasing.This graph is taken from the amazon dieback assessment and shows a projection made with the Earth Simulator for future concentration of rainfall in south america. Projection is for end of century under scenario A1B, for Maximum 5 day precipitation anomaly. Most areas in the sub continent with exception of Chile show a strong increase in the intensity of rainfall.The consequences are significant, flooding plains are changing and risk exposure of settlements and economic activities will increase, with costs being borne by all societies. Major costs in retrofitting of infrastructure will be required.
While emissions are modest in a global context, with overall contribution at 12% of global, but with 8% of population, region is poised to increase its global footprint.
The climatestrategy and the plan of actionprovide a direction for Bank’sefforts.There are threefoundation blocks:Adapt to the consequences of climate destabilizationPromote improvements in quality of life at low-carbon expendituresLink knowledge (science) to decision making
We need your support to strengthen the adaptation agenda.IDB is already in the process of expanding agenda.Projects being proposed in Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Costa Rica, Brazil.But funds are required and partnerships with fast track on adaptation is necessary.
Examples:Deployment of solar energy in Chile and MexicoWind energy in Mexico Promote marine energy in Chile
Climate funding is changing.GCF is in the offing but in the meantime, there is a need to strengthen IDB’s links and access to fast track resources. Most of these are in Europe.We also want to expand access of LAC to CIF funds.The IDB can also play a key role in long-term planning and investment to address adaptation and mitigation issues and assist to consolidate and expand knowledge generation and management initiatives, linking science and decision making
Climate Finance for Sustainable Infrastructure Development
The case for low carbon resilient infrastructure in the Latin America regionClimate Finance for Sustainable Infrastructure Development February 22, 2012 Sustainable Infrastructure Finance Summit
Projected sea level rise: from bad to worse Vermeer and Rahmstorf, 2009 Projections (w/ proxy ice sheet dynamics) Pfeffer et al., 2008 1m ------------------------------------------------------------------ Rahmstorf, 2007 Substantial implications for coastal cities and coastal zones in general. Contingent planning is urgent, needs to start now. Observations Today ?Source: Bindschadler, 2011
Projected concentration of rainfall, recurrentflooding… and droughtSource: Vergara & Scholz, 2011
Anticipated coastal zone flooding: Guyana 67% of the GDP, 75% of population 70% of agriculture will be displaced with a 1m increase in sea level rise
LAC GHG Emissions …a “business as usual” path would increase its global footprint.While emissions are modest 12000 16in a global context… 1430 Total Emissions, million metric tons CO2e 10000 1225 metric tons CO2e per capita 2000 8000 1020 2005 2007 6000 815 610 4000 Total Emissions, million metric tons 4 5 CO2e 2000 metric tons CO2e per capita 2 0 World LAC World LAC World LAC 0 2005 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Land use change Agriculture (CH4 Energy (CO2) & forestry (CO2) & N2O)Source: IIASA, 2011 and staff estimates
Dynamics of Carbon Intensity, 1990-2008 $16,000 GDP pc, PPP (constant 2005 intl $) $14,000 Argentina Mexico $12,000 Chile Venezuela $10,000 Brazil 0 0.1Colombia 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 $8,000 Peru Ecuador kg CO2 per $1 GDP (PPP) $6,000 Guatemala $4,000 Bolivia $2,000Source: Generated by INE/CCS with data obtained from theMillennium Development Goals Indicators (UN) and the WorldBank, 2012. $-
LAC BAU Emissions Trajectory and Various SectorEmissions Wedges, 2010-2050 9,000.00 12 Zero land-use emissions post 2020 Transportation 8,000.00 (1.25 GtCO2e) 10 7,000.00 0.79 GtCO2e Million Metric Tons of CO2e per capita (RHA) Metric Tons of CO2e per capita Historic and BAU 6,000.00 No new FF emissions 8 post 2030 2 GtCO2e 5,000.00 2.5 GtCO2e 6 4,000.00 Zero FF emissions by 2050 3,000.00 4 2.5 GtCO2e Zero agriculture and waste 2,000.00 emissions by 2050 2 1,000.00 Power LAC Target 2050: 2 metric tons CO2e per capita (RHA) (1.7 GtCO2e) 0.00 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 LAC emissions (historic) left-hand axis LAC Emissions (BAU) left-hand axis LAC Emissions ZNDD 2020 (Left-hand Axis) ZNDD 2020 + no new FF emissions after 2030 ZNDD 2020 + 0 FF emissions in 2050 (Left -hand Axis) -8-
Low carbon, resilient infrastructure Reduces or eliminates carbon footprint Reduces resource consumption Reduces land degradation and optimizes recovery of degraded lands Shifts economic activity to low carbon path Breaks with resource intensive growth model of the past Minimizes exposure to anticipated unidirectional climate impacts Conveys resilience to weather extremes Strengthen ability of economic activities to surmount climate extremes -9-
A Streamlined Climate Strategy Three “foundation” building blocks. IDB will support efforts to: Adapt to the consequences of climate destabilization Promote improvements in quality of life at low-carbon expenditures Link knowledge (science) to decision- making
IDB’s Adaptation agendaEngage immediately in a process of ambitious investments toaddress consequences of climate change in LAC, e.g. programs to reduce impacts of cc in water supply/quality (Colombia- Mountain Wetlands; Mexico-Grijalva) to reduce vulnerability to climate impacts in coastal & marine ecosystems (Peru-Fisheries) to strengthen the resilience of forest and other fragile terrestrial biomes to climate impacts (Brazil-Mata Atlantica; Costa Rica-Biodiversity) to address the impacts of climate change in agriculture
IDB’s Mitigation agenda-Promotelow-carbon power generationadoption of low carbon transport systemsavoided deforestation, reforestation and low carbon agricultural practices
IDB’s policy (GCI-9), strategy, action plan anddedicated resources to the issue showcommitment to climate agenda in the region. Engage in international funding sources for the region leveraged by own resources Green Climate Fund, Fast-track, Bilateral funding, Climate Investment Funds Advocate for long-term planning, domestic financing and investment to address adaptation Support efforts to reduce carbon signal of regional economies Expand knowledge generation and management to link science and decision making