Jeremy Leggett, Hillary Laureate, at the Hillary Symposium

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Jeremy Leggett speaks at the Hillary Symposium on the 'Triple Crunch': economy, peak oil, and the environment

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Jeremy Leggett, Hillary Laureate, at the Hillary Symposium

  1. 1. The triple crunch and the road to Copenhagen and beyond Jeremy Leggett 2nd Hillary Institute seminar “The Real New Deal” 5 June 2009
  2. 2. We are living through a triple crunch • Financial …the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong • Carbon …the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm • Oil …the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  3. 3. We are living through a triple crunch • Financial …the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong • Carbon …the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm • Oil …the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  4. 4. “as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”
  5. 5. Welcome to the AGM
  6. 6. We are living through a triple crunch • Financial …the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong • Carbon …the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm • Oil …the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  7. 7. Stern Review, 2006 430 ppm CO2e today means 1C minimum
  8. 8. We are living through a triple crunch • Financial …the credit crunch - the banking industry had its asset assessment systemically wrong • Carbon …the climate crunch - a stable climate is not even valued as an asset in our current operating paradigm • Oil …the energy crunch - could the energy industry have its asset assessment systemically wrong too?
  9. 9. 9 199 h arc M 9 200 ril Ap
  10. 10. October 29th 2008 The first multi-company attempt to sound an alarm bell on premature peak oil www.peakoiltaskforce.net
  11. 11. billions of barrels USA 48 production versus discovery 30 10000 US-48 9000 25 8000 Production P ro d u c tio n k b /d D is c o v e ry G b 20 7000 6000 15 5000 4000 10 3000 5 2000 1000 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 ASPO Source:
  12. 12. billions of barrels USA 48 production versus discovery 30 10000 US-48 9000 25 8000 P ro d u c tio n k b /d 20 7000 D is c o v e ry 6000 15 5000 4000 10 Production 3000 5 2000 1000 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 ASPO Source:
  13. 13. Global production of oil and gas 50 Non-con Gas Gas Production, Gboe/a 40 NGLs billion barrels Polar Oil 30 Deep Water Heavy 20 Regular 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
  14. 14. Global production of oil and gas 50 Non-con Gas Gas billion Gboe/a 40 NGLs Production, barrels Polar Oil 30 Deep Water Heavy 20 Regular 10 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: ASPO
  15. 15. mbd The IEA is also concerned The gap to make up for depletion in 100 existing fields: Six Saudi Arabias Global production of oil 95 90 85 80 75 Source: IEA WEO 2008 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
  16. 16. Global production of oil mbd The IEA is also concerned The gap to make up for depletion in 100 existing fields: Six Saudi Arabias Global production of oil 95 90 85 80 75 Source: IEA WEO 2008 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008
  17. 17. • ..y My Picturesuntitled.bmp Dubai 1990
  18. 18. • ..y My Picturesuntitled.bmp Dubai 2007
  19. 19. Concerns pursuant to the 2005 US DoE Hirsch report of on oil security 1. Oil supplies and GDPs are coupled in normal times, and when sudden shortages have happened 2. World production has been on a plateau since 2004, because additions of new capacity are not exceeding depletion 3. Recession is meaning cutbacks in oil exploration and development investment: a recipe for declining world oil production in just a few years 4. This means global GDP will be dragged down by descending global oil production, causing ever deepening recession 5. The lag time for mitigation is long: alternative technologies will take at least a decade to have major effect 6. This means double recession, prolonged, before recovery Source: Bob Hirsch, April 2009
  20. 20. ITPOES recommendations: 1. National 1. Appraise the risk from premature peak oil, and plan proactive and reactive strategies 2. Draw up a national energy plan to deal with the premature peak-oil threat • maximise energy conservation and energy efficiency • accelerate investment in renewable energy and sustainable renewable fuels • national skills programmes in energy • expand national oil and gas programmes (if possible) 3. There is no time to wait in drawing up and implementing a new national energy mobilization plan including: • The renewables industry is confident that 100% renewables energy supply is possible in 20-40 years. Give them the opportunity to prove it. • Nuclear decisions should be taken rapidly, and governments should ensure that uncertainties over the nuclear renaissance should not act as barriers to the mobilization of energy efficiency and renewables.
  21. 21. Mobilisation rates Climate Peak oil Peak oil change policy “descent” “collapse” response scenario scenario scenario End goal for Within 42 Within < 20 Within < 10 replacement years years years of oil use Annual rates of oil 2.38% c. 5% >10% replacement with respect to 2008 Source: ITPOES 2008
  22. 22. ITPOES recommendations: 2. International 1. Call for, or enact, greater transparency about oil reserves including • minimal programme of verification by a small United Nations team as a confidence-building measure has been proposed by G-8 governments. 2. Combine multi-lateral efforts to deal with oil depletion and climate change in the post-Kyoto climate negotiations including • rapid trialing of CCS • unconventional oil should not be exploited if its net carbon footprint is higher than that of conventional oil 3. Accelerate “green new deals” already underway, at home and abroad.
  23. 23. Mobilisation forces Governments Business People Survival trajectory Status quo trajectory
  24. 24. 0 8 20 ly Governments Ju 21 • Green new Survival deals • Grey new Status quo deals www.nef.org
  25. 25. The potential for energy efficiency and RE Invest £ 1 billion: ….create 20-40,000 clean jobs ….save minimum £ hundreds of millions per year, rising to billions
  26. 26. Governments • Green new Survival deals • China - US leadership? • Grey new Status quo deals • The “return to 2007” syndrome
  27. 27. Business • The cleantech Survival revolution Status quo FEBRUARY 2009
  28. 28. UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA
  29. 29. FT, 21st Oct 2006
  30. 30. Feed-in tariffs and jobs: the case of UK PV Source: UK PV Manufacturers Association, May 2009
  31. 31. Business • The cleantech Survival revolution • Enlightened leadership Status quo
  32. 32. Business • The cleantech Survival revolution • Enlightened leadership • Big oil Status quo recarbonising
  33. 33. Business Gulf of Mexico • The cleantech Survival revolution • Enlightened leadership • Big oil Status quo recarbonising • No room for serious renewables
  34. 34. People • No return to 2007 Survival • Self-help innovation • Top Gear etc Status quo • The rise of the Far Right MARCH 2009
  35. 35. A battle for hearts and minds Governments Business People Survival • Green new • The cleantech • No return to trajectory deals revolution 2007 • China - US • Enlightened • Self-help leadership? leadership innovation Status quo • Grey new • Big Oil • Top Gear trajectory deals recarbonising etc • The “return • No room for • The rise of to 2007” serious the Far syndrome renewables Right
  36. 36. Who to believe? gas gas oil oil
  37. 37. LCBP (Low Carbon Building Programme)
  38. 38. SEPTEMBER 2009
  39. 39. The “seeing is believing” effect “Look at the world around you. It seems like an immovable, implacable place. It is not. With the slightest push – in just the right place – it can be tipped.” Malcolm Gladwell Numbers TIPPING POINT The Power of Context The Stickiness Factor The Law of the Few Time
  40. 40. Thank you jeremy.leggett@solarcentury.com www.solarcentury.com www.solar-aid.org

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