The document discusses planning and the housing market outlook for 2015 in the UK, with a focus on Manchester. It summarizes that the UK economy is improving. The North West region is experiencing an economic renaissance, led by Manchester, which is growing rapidly in population and economic outputs due to factors like graduate retention. However, Manchester faces challenges meeting housing demand, with over 60,000 new units needed by 2027. Recent development commitments and planned areas could help address this, but rising land values pose issues. Devolution of powers and upcoming planning frameworks may also shape future development as the region works to sustain growth.

1. Place RESI
2015
Where are we
going with
Planning and
the Housing
Market in 2015?
John Cooper & Graham Stock
Deloitte Real Estate
26 March 2015

2. 2
Welcome
John Cooper Graham Stock

3. Place RESI 2015 – John Cooper and Graham Stock, Deloitte Real Estate3
Welcome

4. The UK economy
An improving picture
4

5. 5

6. Sustaining growth
6

7. CFO risk appetite
Good time to take greater risk
7

8. Construction output
Growth rebounds at the start of 2015
8
Source: The Markit UK Construction survey

9. National Household Growth
2001
21.7 million
14.9m home
owners and
6.7m renters
2011
23.4 million
15.0m home
owners and
8.3m renters
1.7m
increase
35%
65%
Rent Own
31%
69%
Rent Own
Owner Occupier Rise: 110,000
Renter Rise: 1.6million
Source: www.ons.gov.uk

10. The North West
An Emerging
Powerhouse?

11. North West Recovery
• RBS Regional Growth Tracker for Q4
of 2014 – North West Economy
experienced an 3.1% growth on 2013
• Service Sector dominant force with
entrepreneurial spirit a defining factor.
• ‘A renaissance in the property and
commercial real estate sectors’
11

12. Manchester is a national engine
of economic growth
• Population of 515,000 at the heart of a
conurbation of 3 million people
• Recognition of dynamics of global
market chances.
• North West Economy – 3.1% year on
year growth in Q4 2014 – RBS
Regional Growth Tracker
12
Greater Manchester Economic Outputs
(Source: GM Key Facts, July 2014)

13. A Growing City, A Younger City
13
41,400 (25%) increase in 20-24
year olds in Greater Manchester
(Census 2011)
50% of Manchester’s population
Under 30 (Census 2011)

14. Graduate Retention Key
14
Figure 2: Proportion of graduates from 2012/13 originally domiciled, and proportion of graduates who
went to university in each region, working in the region six months after graduation
Source of data: HESA’s Destinations of Leaver from Higher Education 2012/13

15. The Northern Powerhouse
15
Source: M.A.G

16. Manchester
Housing Market Signals

17. Pattern of Residential Change
• Greater Manchester experienced a
larger level of household growth than
average across England and Wales
• Higher proportion of private and
socially rented tenure homes in
Manchester comparable to the
England and Wales average
37.8
0.731.6
28.4
Owned outright or with mortgage
Shared ownership
Social-rented
Private-rented
17

18. Government Support in Place
18

19. A New National Growth Cycle?
• Economic downturn impacted housing
price but latest statistics show a
recovery.
• Greater Manchester Forecasting
Model provides a more positive
outlook
• With few new starts in the last 5 years,
occupancy rates are now very high in
the City Centre.
Source: GM Forecasting (2014-2024)
19
100,000 jobs
expected to
created by 2024
across Greater
Manchester
Over the next
decade, GVA
growth is forecast
to average 2.8%
per year in
Greater
Manchester,

20. The Link Between Housing and
Economic Growth
20

21. The Current Position: Supply
21

22. “Manchester is Full” (Sir Richard Leese, August 2014)
22
9.2% projected
population growth
(2013-2023)
100,000 jobs projected
across Greater Manchester
(2013-2023)
60,000 units required in
Manchester (2010-2027)
28% of total housing
supply in City Centre
20% population
growth (2001-2011)

23. How does Manchester City
Council counter this?
23

24. Recently committed development
24

25. In the Near Future – City Centre
Northern Fringe
25
Study Area Boundary from Ancoats and New Islington NDF (Oct 2014)

26. In the Near Future - St Johns
26

27. 2015 and Beyond
Future Trends

28. PRS
28

29. Residential Area Design Guide
A new Residential Design Guide discussed at Manchester
City Council Executive March 18th
An interim solution has been adopted whilst a Manchester
Design Guide can be prepared.
What does this mean for developers?
29

30. The Impact of Rising Land Value
“An acre of land on the more challenging edge of Manchester is now £5m.
Pause for a second and let that sink in.
Eighteen months ago it was probably more like £1m
Which is great if you own an open surface car park or a derelict shop, not so good if
you are a developer looking to build a high quality residential scheme with spacious
homes, good amenities and open spaces.
Which means it's not so good for the long term ambition and success of the city.
At £5m you are going to have to go very tall to make the scheme stack up, so to
speak. In other words make a profit for the developer. This is fine for the city core,
but not appropriate for Ancoats or its immediate fringe or other areas such as the Irk
Valley.
So how do you curtail the gold rush?
The other ace is to draw up development frameworks for all the remaining key areas
of the city fringe, the Irk Valley, New Cross, Holt Town etc, so anyone coming in will
have to deliver to that framework.”
Jill Burdett, Manchester Confidential, reporting from MIPIM 2015
30

31. The Impact of Rising Land Value
“An acre of land on the more challenging edge of Manchester is now £5m.
Pause for a second and let that sink in.
Eighteen months ago it was probably more like £1m
Which is great if you own an open surface car park or a derelict shop, not so good
if you are a developer looking to build a high quality residential scheme with
spacious homes, good amenities and open spaces.
Which means it's not so good for the long term ambition and success of the
city.
At £5m you are going to have to go very tall to make the scheme stack up, so to
speak. In other words make a profit for the developer. This is fine for the city core,
but not appropriate for Ancoats or its immediate fringe or other areas such as the Irk
Valley.
So how do you curtail the gold rush?
The other ace is to draw up development frameworks for all the remaining key
areas of the city fringe, the Irk Valley, New Cross, Holt Town etc, so anyone coming
in will have to deliver to that framework.”
Jill Burdett, Manchester Confidential, reporting from MIPIM 201531

32. More Stalled Schemes on the
Return?
32
Previous scheme for the Origin site on Princess Street – previously West Properties
now owned by Urban and Civic

33. #devomanc and the Greater
Manchester Spatial Framework
• Devolution powers gaining
pace
• What will the reality be
upon adoption of the
GMSF, earmarked for 2018
• The reaction of Greater
Manchester Authorities
differs – although most
have Core Strategies in
place.
33

34. Back to the Boom?
34
Concept visuals presented by Mike Ingall at MIPIM 2015 for St Johns

35. • Economic recovery is underway
• An increase in proportion of renters
• Manchester is an increasingly young city in a region which
has experienced strong graduate retention
• A critical need for new housing which is vital for economic
growth
• Recently committed developments coming forward and
strategic areas for housing are emerging.
• Forthcoming changes in terms of policy and guidance will
seek to shape future development.
35
Key Themes

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