Presentation made for a class on Theory of Political Systems at Belarusian State University within MA in Human Rights and Democratization academic mobility semester

1. Comparison Study:
• Armenia
• Belarus
• Ukraine

2. Source: http://www.economist.com/node/13315243

3. Where the risk is greatest that economic
distress will foment social unrest
• Political Instability Task Force (PITF), George Mason
University in the US – quantitative model with 80%
success rate of predictability since 1955
• Cannot predict the intensity or duration of the
instability, or its exact timing
• In 46 out of 50 cases of instability (instances of "adverse
regime change") identified since 1980 by the PITF (about
one-half of these were in Africa), the country had
suffered a decline in GDP per head in at least one of the
two years prior to the occurrence of instability
Sources: http://www.economist.com/node/13315243

4. Index Components
• Underlying vulnerability
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Inequality
State history
Corruption
Ethnic fragmentation
Trust in institutions
Status of minorities
History of political instability
Proclivity to labour unrest
Level of social provision
A country's neighbourhood
Regime type
Regime type and factionalism
• Economic distress
–
–
–
•
Growth in incomes
Unemployment
Level of income per head
Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=874361472

5. Political Instability Index
2009-2010 Index
Rank Country
1 Zimbabwe
2 Chad
Congo
(Democratic
3 Republic)
4 Cambodia
Sudan
6 Iraq
7 Haiti
Afghanistan
Central African
Republic
Pakistan
Cote d'Ivoire
Zambia
13 North Korea
16 Ukraine
94 Armenia
124 Belarus
Underlying
vulnerability
Economic
distress
Index
score
2007
score
7.5
7.1
10.0
10.0
8.8
8.5
8.8
7.5
8.3
7.9
7.9
8.8
7.5
7.5
8.0
8.0
8.0
7.0
8.0
8.0
8.2
8.0
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.8
7.2
6.0
7.0
7.9
6.8
6.8
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
5.4
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.0
10.0
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.7
5.8
5.8
7.8
6.8
3.7
6.3
4.6
4.6
9.0
7.0
5.0
7.6
5.8
4.8
4.6
3.8
2.8
Source: http://viewswire.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=social_unrest_table&page=noads&rf=0

6. Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm

7. Political
Stability
• - Improving female life
expectancy rate and
infantile survival rate will
improve
- Enhancing primary
Health Care services
- Promoting investments
domestically and
internationally
- Utilizing and managing
resources well
- Job creations
Political
Instability
• Decrease in FDI (Foreign
Direct Investment)
• Decrease in production
levels, damage to
infrastructure, resources
not be used to their full
capacity, human and
money resources are not
used wisely
• Without consensus,
governments low economic
reforms
Source: https://ib-economics.wikispaces.com/Political+Stability+and+Instability

8. Criticism
• Unpredictability of Arab Spring
(report published after Economic Crisis,
Latvia & Island government ousting examples)
• Political actions and sanctions, such as
embargos
(despite number of high risked countries
tripling in comparison with 2007 figures)
Source: Managing Supply Chain Risks, http://supplychainreallife.wordpress.com/

9. Criticism cont‟d
• broad definition of the absence of domestic civil
conflict and widespread violence
e. g. Jimmy Carter on Iran in 1977 as “an island of stability
in one of the more troubled areas of the world”
• Inadeqate assessment of government longevity
cf. Italy (60 years – 60 governments),
Belgium (541 days w/out cabinet) & Egypt
when considered to be actually enhancing stability
authoritarianism = full democracies v. hybrid regimes
Source: Cecilia Emma Sottilotta, Political Stability in Authoritarian Regimes:
Lessons from the Arab Uprisings, IAI WORKING PAPERS 13 | 01 – January 2013
- http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iaiwp1301.pdf

10. Source: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/PTfig04.htm

11. Ukraine‟s EuroMaydan 2013
Source: http://news.bigmir.net/life/775514-FOTO-nedeli-Evromajdan--den--pamjati-zhertv-Golodomora-iizverzhenie-Etny

12. Armenia‟s 2013 „Barevolution‟
(presidency runner up hunger strike)
Source: http://www.km.ru/world/2013/04/10/borba-oppozitsii-zavlast-za-rubezhom/708110-aktsiya-protesta-oppozitsii-v-erevane-

13. Armenia 2013 Public Transportation
are Increase Protests
Source:
http://armenianow.com/news/48027/armenia_bus_fare_raise
_republican_party_mayor

14. Belarus 2010-2011
President Elections Protests
Source:
http://gallery.korrespondent.net/world/
3142-milicyya-suprac-narodazaderzhanie-uchastnikov-revolyuciicherez-socialnye-seti

15. Belarus 2012
Teddy Bear Airdrop
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/world/europe/inbelarus-a-teddy-bear-airdrop-vexeslukashenko.html?_r=0

16. Kostiantyn Iakovliev
(Ukraine)
MA in Human Rights and
Democratization,
Yerevan State University –
Belarusian State University,
2013
https://plus.google.com/u/0/
+KostiantynIakovliev/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/
iakovliev