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0
5
10
Construction Backlog
Indicator
By the
Numbers:
Construction Owner
Confidence Index
Unemployment Rate
Housing Permits & Starts
(Bureau of Labor Statistics)
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
(Producer Price Index)
(U.S. Census Bureau)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/3rd Quarter 2015)
(Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2015)
Readings above 50 indicate growth
NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices
NonresidentialConstructionSpending
Overall
Current Month
SALES EXPECTATIONS
TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS
PROFIT MARGIN
EXPECTATIONS
STAFFING LEVEL
INTENTIONS
Year-over-Year
Construction
Construction Vital Statistics
rose from 67.3 to 69.4
expanded from 61.0 to 62.9
dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2
Current Month:
11.0% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 19.5%
Current Month:
10.5% vs.
1 yr. Earlier: 16.5%
8.5 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.8
November 2015
at a Glance
Current Month: -0.5% Year-over-year change: -4.6%
October 2015: 1.0% Year-over-year change: 11.0%
5.0% 5.8% 6.2% 7.5%
Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable.
Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an
approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity.
It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have
been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom
in July 2011 at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up.
Rates as of mid month.
1
2
3
www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ |
4
November 2015 at a Glance
Construction Backlog Indicator (Months)
Current Backlog
Backlog from a year ago
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
Construction Owner Confidence Index
Sales Expectations
Profit Margin Expectations
Staffing Level Intentions
(Associated Builders & Contractors)
National Unemployment Rate
Overall current month
Overall year over year
Construction current month
Construction year over year
(Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS)
National Housing Permits and Starts
Permits - Total
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
5 + Units - change from previous month
5 + Units - change year over year
Starts - Total
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
5 + Units - change from previous month
5 + Units - change year over year
(U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.)
Nonresidential Construction Material Prices
Current Month
Change year over year
(Producer Price Index - PPI)
Nonresidential Construction Spending
Previous Month
Change year over year
(U.S. Census Bureau)
AIA - Architecture Billing Index
Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building
Interest Rates
I-Month LIBOR
WSJ Prime Rate
5 Year US Treasury Rate
10 Year US Treasury Rate
Jun. ‘15 Jul. ‘15
8.5
8.5
Aug. ‘15
5.3%
6.1%
6.3%
8.2%
7.4%
30.0%
0.9%
6.0%
16.1%
79.0%
9.8%
26.6%
0.9%
14.7%
28.6%
55.0%
0.3%
-3.6%
1.1%
8.1%
55.7
126.1
0.1859%
3.25%
1.63%
2.36%
1
2
4
8.4
8.1
67.3
61.0
66.3
2nd 1/2 ‘14
1st Qtr. ‘15 2nd Qtr. ‘15
3
Arizona Unemployment Rate
5.9%
6.3%
6.9%
California Unemployment Rate
Nevada Unemployment Rate
West Housing Permits and Starts
Overall current month
Overall current month
Overall current month
Permits - Total
Permits - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
Starts - Total
Starts - Total from twelve months earlier
1 - Family - change from previous month
1 - Family - change year over year
9.5%
27.4%
-3.7%
6.2%
-6.0%
9.6%
-7.1%
12.1%
5.3%
6.2%
5.5%
7.5%
6.1%
6.2%
6.8%
-16.3%
7.5%
-1.9%
6.1%
-32.6%
11.1%
0.2%
10.1%
12.8%
19.0%
-17.1%
-2.1%
-9.9%
10.9%
-1.3%
14.8%
-3.1%
4.1%
16.6%
24.5%
-0.3%
-3.9%
0.0%
11.5%
54.7
132.1
0.1882%
3.25%
1.58%
2.16%
5.1%
6.1%
6.1%
7.7%
6.3%
6.1%
6.8%
3.5%
12.5%
2.8%
8.7%
4.3%
21.5%
-3.0%
16.6%
-3.0%
14.9%
-2.3%
24.5%
9.6%
36.4%
5.8%
28.1%
-1.1%
28.2%
-18.3%
7.3%
-0.8%
-4.7%
0.5%
12.7%
49.1
142.0
0.1968%
3.25%
1.61%
2.28%
Sep. ‘15
69.4
62.9
66.2
1st 1/2 ‘15
5.1%
5.9%
5.5%
7.0%
6.3%
5.9%
6.7%
-5.0%
4.7%
-0.3%
6.7%
-14.6%
-1.3%
6.5%
17.5%
0.3%
12.0%
17.0%
28.6%
-6.2%
15.7%
-4.9%
19.1%
25.4%
27.5%
18.2%
19.0%
-1.6%
-6.0%
0.3%
12.3%
53.7
140.0
0.2011%
3.25%
1.34%
2.04%
Oct. ‘15
5.0%
5.7%
6.2%
6.4%
6.1%
5.8%
6.6%
-2.6%
-7.0%
3.2%
19.3%
-16.2%
14.5%
1.8%
8.2%
4.1%
2.7%
2.4%
9.0%
8.3%
-7.1%
-11.0%
-1.8%
-2.4%
2.4%
-25.5%
-8.4%
-0.3%
-5.1%
-0.1%
12.4%
53.1
124.5
0.1945%
3.25%
1.66%
2.27%
Nov. ‘15
8.5
8.8
3rd Qtr. ‘15
5.0%
5.8%
6.2%
7.5%
6.0%
5.7%
6.5%
11.0%
19.5%
1.1%
9.0%
30.8%
38.9%
10.5%
16.5%
7.6%
14.6%
18.1%
21.3%
-0.5%
-4.6%
1.0%
11.0%
49.3
119.9
0.2084%
3.25%
1.71%
2.28%
21.7%
13.1%
6.2%
17.8%
6.3%
-7.3%
15.1%
31.7%

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Phoenix Construction Vital Stats - November

  • 1. 0 5 10 Construction Backlog Indicator By the Numbers: Construction Owner Confidence Index Unemployment Rate Housing Permits & Starts (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) (Producer Price Index) (U.S. Census Bureau) (Associated Builders & Contractors/3rd Quarter 2015) (Associated Builders & Contractors/1st Half of 2015) Readings above 50 indicate growth NonresidentialConstructionMaterialPrices NonresidentialConstructionSpending Overall Current Month SALES EXPECTATIONS TOTAL PERMITS TOTAL STARTS PROFIT MARGIN EXPECTATIONS STAFFING LEVEL INTENTIONS Year-over-Year Construction Construction Vital Statistics rose from 67.3 to 69.4 expanded from 61.0 to 62.9 dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2 Current Month: 11.0% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 19.5% Current Month: 10.5% vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 16.5% 8.5 vs. 1 yr. Earlier: 8.8 November 2015 at a Glance Current Month: -0.5% Year-over-year change: -4.6% October 2015: 1.0% Year-over-year change: 11.0% 5.0% 5.8% 6.2% 7.5%
  • 2. Reading above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 are unfavorable. Any Architecture Billing Index Score above 50 signifies growth - it is a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately nine to 12 month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. It is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. Since reaching bottom in July 2011 at a level of 77.1 (2000=100), the index has been trending up. Rates as of mid month. 1 2 3 www.cbiz.com/construction1-800-ASK-CBIZ | 4 November 2015 at a Glance Construction Backlog Indicator (Months) Current Backlog Backlog from a year ago (Associated Builders & Contractors) Construction Owner Confidence Index Sales Expectations Profit Margin Expectations Staffing Level Intentions (Associated Builders & Contractors) National Unemployment Rate Overall current month Overall year over year Construction current month Construction year over year (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS) National Housing Permits and Starts Permits - Total Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 1 - Family - change from previous month 1 - Family - change year over year 5 + Units - change from previous month 5 + Units - change year over year Starts - Total Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 1 - Family - change from previous month 1 - Family - change year over year 5 + Units - change from previous month 5 + Units - change year over year (U.S. Census Bureau & Dept. of Housing and Urban Dev.) Nonresidential Construction Material Prices Current Month Change year over year (Producer Price Index - PPI) Nonresidential Construction Spending Previous Month Change year over year (U.S. Census Bureau) AIA - Architecture Billing Index Dodge Momentum Index - Commercial Building Interest Rates I-Month LIBOR WSJ Prime Rate 5 Year US Treasury Rate 10 Year US Treasury Rate Jun. ‘15 Jul. ‘15 8.5 8.5 Aug. ‘15 5.3% 6.1% 6.3% 8.2% 7.4% 30.0% 0.9% 6.0% 16.1% 79.0% 9.8% 26.6% 0.9% 14.7% 28.6% 55.0% 0.3% -3.6% 1.1% 8.1% 55.7 126.1 0.1859% 3.25% 1.63% 2.36% 1 2 4 8.4 8.1 67.3 61.0 66.3 2nd 1/2 ‘14 1st Qtr. ‘15 2nd Qtr. ‘15 3 Arizona Unemployment Rate 5.9% 6.3% 6.9% California Unemployment Rate Nevada Unemployment Rate West Housing Permits and Starts Overall current month Overall current month Overall current month Permits - Total Permits - Total from twelve months earlier 1 - Family - change from previous month 1 - Family - change year over year Starts - Total Starts - Total from twelve months earlier 1 - Family - change from previous month 1 - Family - change year over year 9.5% 27.4% -3.7% 6.2% -6.0% 9.6% -7.1% 12.1% 5.3% 6.2% 5.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.2% 6.8% -16.3% 7.5% -1.9% 6.1% -32.6% 11.1% 0.2% 10.1% 12.8% 19.0% -17.1% -2.1% -9.9% 10.9% -1.3% 14.8% -3.1% 4.1% 16.6% 24.5% -0.3% -3.9% 0.0% 11.5% 54.7 132.1 0.1882% 3.25% 1.58% 2.16% 5.1% 6.1% 6.1% 7.7% 6.3% 6.1% 6.8% 3.5% 12.5% 2.8% 8.7% 4.3% 21.5% -3.0% 16.6% -3.0% 14.9% -2.3% 24.5% 9.6% 36.4% 5.8% 28.1% -1.1% 28.2% -18.3% 7.3% -0.8% -4.7% 0.5% 12.7% 49.1 142.0 0.1968% 3.25% 1.61% 2.28% Sep. ‘15 69.4 62.9 66.2 1st 1/2 ‘15 5.1% 5.9% 5.5% 7.0% 6.3% 5.9% 6.7% -5.0% 4.7% -0.3% 6.7% -14.6% -1.3% 6.5% 17.5% 0.3% 12.0% 17.0% 28.6% -6.2% 15.7% -4.9% 19.1% 25.4% 27.5% 18.2% 19.0% -1.6% -6.0% 0.3% 12.3% 53.7 140.0 0.2011% 3.25% 1.34% 2.04% Oct. ‘15 5.0% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.1% 5.8% 6.6% -2.6% -7.0% 3.2% 19.3% -16.2% 14.5% 1.8% 8.2% 4.1% 2.7% 2.4% 9.0% 8.3% -7.1% -11.0% -1.8% -2.4% 2.4% -25.5% -8.4% -0.3% -5.1% -0.1% 12.4% 53.1 124.5 0.1945% 3.25% 1.66% 2.27% Nov. ‘15 8.5 8.8 3rd Qtr. ‘15 5.0% 5.8% 6.2% 7.5% 6.0% 5.7% 6.5% 11.0% 19.5% 1.1% 9.0% 30.8% 38.9% 10.5% 16.5% 7.6% 14.6% 18.1% 21.3% -0.5% -4.6% 1.0% 11.0% 49.3 119.9 0.2084% 3.25% 1.71% 2.28% 21.7% 13.1% 6.2% 17.8% 6.3% -7.3% 15.1% 31.7%