1. Killeen
1
Dividend
Delivered
or
Climate
Catastrophe?
An
Assessment
of
Indian
Urban
Development
Trajectories
in
the
Anthropocene
By
Philip
Killeen
University
Honors
Spring
2015
Capstone
Advisors:
Miles
Kahler,
PhD
School
of
International
Studies
Christopher
Rudolph,
PhD
School
of
International
Studies

2. Killeen
2
Contents:
I.
Abstract
&
Introduction
3
II.
Literature
Review
6
III.
Demographic
Trends
14
IV.
Environmental
Trends
21
V.
India’s
Infrastructure
Bottlenecks
&
Historic
Urban
Development
23
Framework
VI.
Content
of
the
Smart
Cities
Initiative
30
VII.
Progress
and
Criticisms
of
the
Smart
Cities
Initiative
32
VIII.
Policy
Reform
Recommendations
and
Conclusion
35
IX.
Appendix
40
X.
Bibliography
46
Abstract:

3. Killeen
3
Experiencing
robust
and
sustained
population
growth,
India
is
projected
to
bear
a
demographic
bulge
of
working
age
citizens
through
the
first
half
of
the
21st
century.
One
notable
outcome
of
this
trend
is
the
rapid
movement
to
and
growth
of
India's
urban
centers,
with
profound
implications
on
India's
economic
development
and
environmental
integrity.
The
scope
of
this
paper
is
to
assess
how
the
political,
environmental,
and
socio-­‐economic
dynamics
underlying
India's
urban
growth
trajectory
interface
with
proposed
policy
reform,
and
to
explore
through
which
means
developmental
and
sustainability
outcomes
can
be
improved.
I. Introduction
Outlining,
arguably,
the
most
ambitious
urban
development
project
of
the
21st
century,
Narendra
Modi’s
Smart
Cities
Initiative
benchmarks
the
creation
of
100
new
“smart”
cities—with
modernized
and
environmentally
sustainable
transport,
housing,
utility,
and
connectivity
services.
This
expansive
policy
framework
has
been
announced
to
meet
the
demand
for
increased
urbanization
in
India—driven
by
rapid
population
growth
and
immigration
to
cities
from
India’s
dispersed
rural
population.
This
announcement
provides
a
unique
opportunity
for
urban-­‐focused
sustainable
development
in
India,
a
country
whose
economic
emergence
will
be
pivotal
for
the
global
climate
change
mitigation
regime.
According
to
Indian
Census
data,
India’s
urban
population
is
expected
to
increase
to
590
million
by
20301.
This
represents
an
increase
of
230
million
from
the
approximate
377
million
currently
in
urban
centers.
Research
on
productivity
in
India
estimates
that
cities
could
generate
up
to
70%
of
new
Indian
jobs
through
2030—fueling
70%
of
GDP
and
allowing
the
country
to
capitalize
on
a
substantial
demographic
dividend2.
Coupling
this
transition,
however,
is
the
enormous
burden
placed
on
India’s
public
administration
to
finance,
oversee
large-­‐scale
construction,
and
facilitate
private
sector
involvement
in
the
creation
of
urban
environments—estimated
by
the
McKinsey
Global
Institute
to
cost
approximately
US
$1.2
trillion
in
capital
expenditure
through
2030,
nearly
eight
times
the
level
of
its
current
spending3.
Establishing
salient
linkages
between
urban
design
and
economic
benefit
across
strata
of
Indian
society
will
be
essential
to
increasing
stakeholder
buy-­‐in
and
investor
follow-­‐through
for
Modi’s
initiative.
The
need
for
robust
governance
on
India’s
urban
development
extends
beyond
federal
level
leadership
from
the
Modi
administration,
however.
With
a
past
dominated
by
policy
and
governance
geared
towards
rural
settings,
India’s
state
level
parliamentary
and
mayoral
leadership
has
a
crucial
role
to
play
in
implementing
national
policy.
While
essential
to
its
economic
emergence,
this
demographic
transition
also
poses
substantial
challenges
to
the
regional
and
global
sustainability
regime.
If
1
"Population Enumeration Information." Censusindia.gov. Ministry of Home Affairs, 2011. Web.
2
"Reaping India's Promised Demographic Dividend--Industry in the Driving Seat." Federation of Indian
Chambers of Commerce and Industry (2011): n. pag. Ey.com. Ernst and Young, 2013. Web.
3
Schanka, Shirish. "India's Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth.".
McKinsey Global Institute, Apr. 2010. Web.

4. Killeen
4
Modi’s
sustainability-­‐related
urban
development
benchmarks
are
not
met,
India
risks
compromising
its
environmental
heritage
and
the
economic
livelihoods
of
future
generations.
Lacking
formalized
commitment
to
climate
change
mitigation,
enforcing
the
sustainability
related
components
of
Modi’s
Smart
Cities
Initiative,
therefore,
seems
critical
to
India’s
meaningful
participation
in
the
global
sustainability
regime.
By
assessing
the
political,
environmental,
and
socio-­‐economic
dynamics
underlying
India’s
record
of
urban
development
and
governance,
it
becomes
clear
that,
as
written,
Modi’s
Smart
Cities
Initiative
is
insufficient
to
meet
the
challenge
of
directing
India
towards
sustainable
and
equitable
economic
development
alone.
To
improve
the
outcomes
of
this
policy
framework,
Modi
should
combine
strong
and
informed
federal
leadership
with
engagement
of
potential
financial
partners,
empowerment
of
municipal
governance
bodies,
and
reformation
of
urban
development
policy.
Doing
so
will
tailor
urban
development
solutions
to
the
specific
economic
and
cultural
needs
of
India’s
diverse
society
while
also
contributing
meaningfully
to
the
mitigation
of
and
adaption
to
regional
and
global
climate
threats.
II.
Literature
Review
A
growing
body
of
research,
focused
on
exploring
the
implications
of
urbanization
in
the
context
of
climate
change
and
sustainability,
informs
the
scope
and
motivation
of
this
paper.
As
climate
change
is
a
global
issue,
these
studies
have
been
applied
to
countries
of
nearly
all
socio-­‐economic
and
developmental
strata.
This
literature
review,
however,
focuses
on
the
cross-­‐section
of
this
body
of
research
concerning
sustainable
urbanization
in
emerging
economies
as
it
is
of
greatest
relevance
to
India.
Amongst
these
studies,
recurrent
themes
of
municipal
government
and
community
empowerment,
resource
efficiency,
financing
networks,
and
regulatory
reform
are
identified
as
lynchpins
essential
to
the
reconciliation
of
economic
development
with
climate
change.
Demographic
Transition
Theory
Framing
most
contemporary
analysis
of
urbanization
trends
in
emerging
economies,
Demographic
Transition
Theory
and
respondent
critiques
assess
the
impact
of
modernization
on
population
dynamics
of
emerging
economies.
Conventionally
regarded
as
the
origin
of
the
term,
Population:
the
long
view4
by
Frank
Notestein
observes
how
the
dynamic
of
states
experiencing
modernization
is
normally
characterized
by
rapidly
decreasing
mortality
rates
preceding
the
more
gradual
decline
of
fertility
rates.
Notestein
identifies
the
reduction
of
epidemics
by
vaccination
and
better
hygiene,
improved
treatment
and
diagnosis
of
disease,
reduced
famine
due
to
greater
agricultural
output,
and
fewer
instances
of
civil
war
and
conflict
due
to
stronger
international
institutions
as
factors
promoting
the
rapid
reduction
of
mortality
rates
observed
in
states
integrating
with
the
global
economy
and
experiencing
modernization.
4
Notestein, F.W. “Population: The Long View.” Popline.org. University of Chicago Press, 1945. Web.

5. Killeen
5
Identifying
the
vectors
through
which
fertility
rates
declined
in
these
states
proved
more
challenging—with
early
research
relying
on
somewhat
dogmatic
conventions
of
increased
morality
and
intelligence
accompanying
modernization
and
altering
“uncivilized”
cultural
norms
in
these
states.
Subsequent
research
on
Demographic
Transition
Theory
has
expanded
upon
these
observations—providing
more
nuanced
analysis
of
factors
through
which
the
subsequent
declines
in
fertility
could
be
explained.
An
Economic
Framework
for
Fertility
Analysis5
by
Richard
Easterlin
identifies
economic
“supply
factors,”
such
as
monetary,
time,
and
physic
constraints
in
contraception
use
and
family
planning
as
well
as
“demand
factors,”
such
as
desired
family
size
and
religious
beliefs,
explaining
the
comparatively
gradual
reduction
of
fertility
rates
in
less-­‐developed
states.
It
is
important
here
to
note
that
the
sequence
of
population
effects
outlined
in
the
Demographic
Transition
Theory
is
not
uniformly
supported
by
its
associated
research.
Jeremy
Greenwood
and
Anath
Seshadri
observe
in
The
U.S.
Demographic
Transition6
that,
during
its
interface
with
modernization
in
the
1800s,
the
United
States
experienced
a
rapid
decline
in
fertility
rates
preceding
the
very
gradual
decline
of
mortality
rates
in
the
country
over
one
hundred
years
later.
Greenwood
and
Seshadri
attribute
this
exception
of
Demographic
Transition
Theory
to
westward
expansion
and
the
ability
of
poor
migrants
to
exponentially
populate
the
country
in
a
short
period
of
time.
More
closely
reflecting
the
Western
European-­‐influenced
colonial
context
seen
in
India,
The
State
and
Pre-­‐Colonial
Demographic
History:
The
Case
of
Nineteenth-­‐Century
Madagascar7
by
Gwyn
Campbell
challenges
the
uniform
applicability
of
Demographic
Transition
Theory
in
post-­‐colonial
states.
Established
as
a
French
protectorate
in
1882,
Madagascar’s
Merina
government
initially
implemented
domestically
oriented
pro-­‐agricultural
growth
policies—associated
with
observable
benefits
to
the
health,
size,
and
productivity
of
Madagascar’s
labor
force.
Campbell
suggests,
however,
that
once
directed
towards
militaristic
expansion
by
its
French
colonial
overseers,
the
Merina
government
implemented
exploitative
labor
policy—associated
with
disease,
poverty,
and
malnutrition.
As
a
result,
Madagascar’s
perverse
initial
demographic
outcome
of
“modernization”
was
higher
rates
of
infant
and
adult
mortality.
These
findings
demonstrate
the
importance
of
considering
the
impact
of
colonial
legacy,
supplementing
conventional
analysis
of
modernization
effects
on
population
dynamics,
in
assessing
the
legitimacy
of
Demographic
Transition
Theory.
Concentrating
yet
more
precisely
on
the
assessment
of
Demographic
Transition
Theory
in
India,
Policy
Lessons
of
the
East
Asian
Demographic
Transition8
by
Geoffrey
McNicoll
notes
commonalities
of
social
and
economic
policy
5
Easterlin, Richard. “An Economic Framework for Fertility Analysis.” Ssc.wisc.edu Studies in Family
Planning, Vol. 6, No. 3. March 1975. Web.
6
“ Greenwood, Jeremy and Ananth Seshadri. “The U.S. Demographic Transition.” Jstor.org. The
American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 2. May 2002. Web.
7
Campbell, Gwyn. “The State and Pre-Colonial Demographic History: The Case of Nineteenth-Century
Madagascar.” Jstor.org. The Journal of African History, Vol. 32, No. 3. 1991. Web.
8
McNicoll, Geoffrey. “Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition.” Jstor.org Population
and Development Review, Vol 32, No. 1. March 2006. Web.

6. Killeen
6
implementation
of
India’s
modernizing
neighbor
states,
including
Taiwan,
South
Korea,
Thailand,
Malaysia,
Indonesia,
China,
and
Vietnam.
McNicoll
identifies
regional
commonalities
in
the
formation
of
strong
authoritarian
governance,
increased
provision
of
health,
education,
and
family
welfare
services,
and
the
loosening
of
foreign
direct
investment
controls
characteristic
of
liberal
economic
policy
as
vectors
promoting
decreased
mortality
and
fertility
rates
in
the
region.
Paralleling
these
observations,
McNicoll
acknowledges
how
changes
in
family
economic
conditions
and
opportunities
also
stimulated
greater
demand
for
education,
health,
and
family
planning
services
from
the
families
themselves.
Applied
to
women’s
rights,
these
insights
were
formational
to
the
establishment
of
institutions
such
as
the
United
Nations
Population
Fund
1994
Cario
Program
of
Action,
rebranding
fertility
management
policy
from
“crude
demographics”
to
an
issue
of
women’s
reproductive
health.
This
insight
is
significant
in
that
it
recognizes
the
agency
of
families
in
modernizing
states
as
actors,
influencing
population
dynamics
and
actualizing
endogenous
social
values.
This
research
counters
the
prevailing
logic
that
external
forces
are
solely
responsible
for
changing
cultural
norms
towards
population
dynamics
witnessed
during
the
demographic
transition.
Demographic
Dividend
Theory
Having
established
the
broad
parameters
and
causality
of
declining
fertility
and
mortality
rates
in
modernizing
states,
a
large
body
of
econometric
research
has
explored
the
implications
of
Demographic
Transition
Theory
on
the
economic
emergence
of
these
states.
The
Challenge
of
Attaining
the
Demographic
Dividend9
by
James
Gribble
and
Jason
Bremner
notes
that,
due
to
the
asynchronous
occurrence
of
declining
fertility
and
mortality
rates
in
modernizing
states,
an
observable
generational
population
bulge
is
produced
throughout
society.
With
fewer
births
each
year
and
with
an
increasingly
healthy
and
productive
elderly
population,
growth
rates
of
the
countries
working-­‐age
population
exceed
that
of
the
young
and
dependent
population.
As
a
result
the
state
is
afforded
a
20-­‐30
year
window
of
opportunity,
conventionally
known
as
the
“Demographic
Dividend”,
during
which
a
decreased
dependency
ratio
can
stimulate
rapid
economic
growth
when
coupled
with
effective
social
and
economic
policy.
Demographic
Transitions
and
Economic
Miracles
in
Emerging
Asia10
by
David
Bloom
and
Jeffery
Williamson
provides
some
of
the
most
compelling
evidence
for
the
Demographic
Dividend
Theory.
By
isolating
and
analyzing
the
effects
of
regional
demography
such
as
changes
in
labor
force
participation,
savings
rate,
human
capital
accumulation
and
domestic
demand
in
Asia
from
1965-­‐1990,
Bloom
and
Williamson
suggest
that
up
to
a
third
of
observed
economic
growth
in
the
region
during
this
time
period,
colloquially
known
as
the
East
Asian
Miracle,
was
attributable
to
the
demographic
dividend.
Bloom
and
Williamson
also
note
that
these
changes
were
uniformly
accompanied
by
development
of
the
industry
sector,
9
Gribble, James and Jason Bremner. “The Challenge of Attaining the Demographic Dividend.” Prb.org.
Population Reference Bureau. November 2012. Web.
10
Bloom, David and Jeffrey Williamson. “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging
Asia.” Nber.org. The National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper No. 6268. 1997. Web.

7. Killeen
7
followed
shortly
thereafter
by
the
service
sector—with
job
opportunities
for
both
concentrated
in
urban
and
peri-­‐urban
environments.
Considering
the
gendered
impacts
of
demographic
dividend-­‐stimulated
growth,
David
Bloom,
David
Canning,
and
Jaypee
Sevilla
identify
additional
benefits
accrued
by
women
in
modernizing
states
in
The
Demographic
Dividend:
A
New
Perspective
on
the
Economic
Consequences
of
Population
Change11.
Also
using
East
Asia
as
a
case
study,
the
authors
observe
how
reduced
fertility
rates
allowed
women
to
acquire
employment
and
education
to
a
higher
extent—making
the
labor
force
more
productive.
Experiencing
an
observable
increase
of
health
and
productive
capacity,
women
benefitted
from
increased
social
status
and
personal
independence
in
these
states.
In
regards
to
long-­‐term
development,
family
incomes
supplemented
by
newly
employed
women
promoted
the
better
nutrition
of
children—especially
young
girls—essential
to
realizing
their
productive
potential.
Having
demonstrated
the
potential
for
economy
wide
benefits
for
states
going
through
the
demographic
transition
to
a
modernized
economy,
discussing
research
on
the
less
apparent
but
equally
salient
economic
challenges
imposed
by
the
demographic
dividend
is
an
important
context
for
understanding
the
implications
of
India’s
urbanization
trend.
A
Review
of
Age
Structural
Transition
and
Demographic
Dividend
in
South
Asia:
Opportunities
and
Challenges12
by
Navaneetham
and
Dharmalingam
identifies
asymmetries
in
income
equality,
nutrition,
and
access
to
education
in
India,
Bangladesh,
Pakistan,
Sri
Lanka,
and
Nepal
as
factors
reducing
the
productive
potential
of
the
demographic
dividend.
The
authors
consider
the
subsequent
observed
growth
of
informal
labor
markets
in
South
Asia
as
evidence
of
a
failure
of
government
policy
and
the
private
sector
to
realize
the
potential
of
the
demographic
dividend.
Sustainable
Urbanization
Nuancing
insight
gleaned
from
research
on
economic
modernization
and
population
dynamics,
exploring
how
emerging
economies—experiencing
rapid
economic
growth
due
to
the
demographic
dividend—have
interfaced
with
the
global
sustainability
regime
is
becoming
increasingly
important
as
concerns
over
anthropogenic
climate
change
effects
increase.
Emblematic
of
these
concerns,
the
term
“Anthropocene,”
first
coined
by
Paul
Crutzen
in
his
2002
paper
Geology
of
mankind13,
has
been
adopted
by
climate
scientists
and
many
policy
makers
as
the
informal
geologic
chronological
term
referring
to
the
era
in
which
human
activities
have
has
a
significant
global
impact
on
Earth’s
ecosystems.
Crutzen
points
towards
the
rapid
growth
in
per
capita
exploitation
of
land,
water,
and
air
resources,
performed
by
25%
of
the
world’s
population
and
concentrated
in
urban
centers,
as
primary
vectors
of
environmental
degradation
and
global
warming.
11
Bloom, David, David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla. “The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on
the Economic Consequences of Population Change.” Rand.org Rand. 2003. Web.
12
K, Navaneetham and A Dharmalingam. “A Review of Age Structural Transition and Demographic
Dividend in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges.” Proquest.com. Journal of Population Ageing,
December 2012. Web.
13
Crutzen, Paul. “Geology of mankind.” Nature.com. Nature. 2002. Web

8. Killeen
8
Time
has
not
lessened
the
severity
of
this
outlook.
In
its
annual
Compilation
and
Synthesis
Report14,
The
United
Nations
Framework
Convention
on
Climate
Change
2014
Lima
Summit
outlined
the
most
recent
research
on
global
climate
change
vectors
and
impacts.
While
the
report
opens
noting
a
decrease
in
annual
global
emissions
from
19.1
to
17.0
thousand
megatons
of
carbon
dioxide—
representing
a
10.6%
decline
in
the
period
from
1990-­‐2012—these
reductions
are
attributed
almost
in
their
entirety
to
decreased
global
economic
activity
due
to
the
global
financial
crisis
and
to
the
mitigation
actions
of
developed
states
in
Western
Europe
and
the
United
States
(known
as
Annex
I
countries).
While
the
report
complements
the
increased
engagement
of
Non-­‐Annex
members,
such
as
Brazil,
India,
and
China
with
subsidiary
UNFCCC
organizations
to
address
climate
change
mitigation,
these
states
are
identified
as
the
primary
sources
of
carbon
emissions
growth.
This
regional
assessment
is
corroborated
by
case
studies
on
the
localized
impacts
of
climate
change
in
emerging
economies.
These
studies
demonstrate
that
responding
to
the
environmental
consequences
of
climate
change,
especially
in
the
context
of
urbanization,
remains
a
policy
imperative
both
for
regional
governance
in
emerging
economies
and
for
the
global
sustainability
regime.
Utilizing
Bangladesh
in
2006
as
a
case
study,
The
State
of
the
Environment
in
Asia15
by
Awaji
Takehisa
and
Teranishi
Shun’ichi
connects
global
emissions
of
carbon
dioxide—associated
with
economic
development,
urbanization,
and
industrialization—to
the
increased
prevalence
and
intensity
of
climatic
disasters
in
Bangladesh
such
as
cyclones
and
flooding.
The
authors
contend
that,
to
account
for
its
increased
vulnerability
to
anthropogenic
climate
effects,
Bangladesh’s
government
is
burdened
with
substantial
climate
change
risk
mitigation
and
adaption
costs,
such
as
levee
construction
and
hurricane
shelters.
The
Bangladeshi
economy,
dependent
on
vulnerable
farmland,
coastal
cities,
and
biodiversity
driven
tourism,
is
also
clearly
strained
by
its
increased
exposure
to
climate
change.
This
research
is
supplemented
by
many
other
studies
on
climate
change
vulnerability
and
associated
mitigation
and
adaption
costs
for
the
governments
and
economies
of
emerging
economies.
It
is
clear,
then,
that
climate
change
is
both
associated
with
and
a
threat
to
conventional
trends
of
greenhouse
gas-­‐dependent
economic
development.
Reconciling
the
need
for
growth
in
these
emerging
economies
with
the
global
imperative
of
climate
change
mitigation,
versed
in
understanding
of
the
confluence
of
economic,
societal,
and
environmental
trends,
is
therefore
a
vital
research
frontier.
III.
Demographic
Trends
Dynamics
of
Indian
population
growth
currently
follow
the
general
expectations
for
modernizing
states
as
outlined
in
the
Demographic
Transition
14
“Compilation and synthesis of sixth national communications and first biennial reports from Parties
included in Annex I to the Convention.” Unfccc.int. United Nations. 24 November 2014. Web.
15
Awaji, Takehisa and Shun’ichi Teranishi. “The State of Environment in Asia: 2005/2006” Japan
Environmental Council. April 7, 2005. Web.

9. Killeen
9
Theory.
These
trends,
when
coupled
with
India’s
present
lack
of
sufficient
economic
development,
reflect
the
nature
of
urbanization
policy
reform,
such
as
that
outlined
by
Prime
Minister
Narendra
Modi’s
Smart
Cities
Initiative
as
more
of
a
policy
imperative
than
merely
an
election
platform.
In
order
to
establish
targeted
performance
metrics
for
Indian
urbanization
reform
is
it
essential
to
understand
the
composition
and
spatial
orientation
of
India’s
growing
labor
force.
Addressing
these
factors
also
reveals
insight
on
the
efficacy
and
impact
of
hitherto
implemented
policy.
According
to
World
Bank
data16,
India’s
crude
death
rate
has
remained
low
throughout
the
last
two
and
a
half
decades
while
infant
mortality
rates,
for
children
under
5,
have
dropped
precipitously
from
a
high
in
1990
of
125.9
per
1000
births
to
7.9
as
of
2013
(See
Figure
1).
According
to
the
same
source,
Indian
fertility
rates,
both
for
the
general
population
(See
Figure
2)
and
for
Adolescents
aged
15-­‐19
(See
Figure
3)
have
gradually
declined
in
the
same
time
period.
A
legacy
of
the
gradual
decline
in
birth
rates,
India
has
experienced
robust
population
growth
through
this
period,
adding
approximately
364
million
people
to
its
population
in
two
decades
between
1991
and
201117.
Extending
this
trend
forward,
it
is
projected
that
India’s
population
will
increase
to
1.4
billion
by
2025
from
the
1.2
billion
recorded
in
the
2011
census18.
Meanwhile,
resultant
from
observed
and
sustained
decline
in
total
and
adolescent
fertility
rates
in
India,
the
growth
rate
of
India’s
working-­‐age
population
is
expected
to
exceed
that
of
its
total
population
during
the
first
half
of
the
21st
century.
India’s
future
population
will,
therefore,
bear
a
“bulge”
of
working-­‐age
Indians,
expected
to
increase
from
761
million
to
869
million
from
2011-­‐2020,
representing
nearly
64%
of
India’s
total
population.
(See
Figure
419).
This
represents
both
an
enormous
opportunity
for
economic
growth
and
an
onerous
challenge
for
policy
makers.
Indian
Residential
Geography
India’s
geographic
population
distribution
has
been
historically
characterized
by
high—but
gradually
declining—rates
of
rural
inhabitation.
Currently,
India’s
population
is
approximately
two
thirds
rural
and
one
third
urban.
Between
2001
and
2011,
Indian
Census
data20
reported
a
growth
of
India’s
rural
population
near
12.2%,
increasing
from
approximately
753
million
to
839
million.
Meanwhile,
India’s
comparatively
small
urban
population
has
grown
rapidly
near
31.8%,
having
increased
from
approximately
288
million
to
382
million
in
the
same
time
period.
When
compared
historically,
these
statistics
represent
an
accelerating
trend
of
urbanization
in
India.
1901
and
1951
Indian
Census
data
reports
nearly
9
and
over
8
out
of
every
10
Indians
residing
in
rural
environments,
respectively.
With
these
broad
parameters
set,
determining
what
developmental
characteristics
distinguish
India’s
rural
and
urban
populations
reveals
insight
both
16
“India Data Indicators.” Databank.worldbank.org. The World Bank. April 16th
, 2015. Web.
17
“Population of India.” Indiabudget.nic. National Informatics Comission. 2007. Web.
18
"Reaping India's Promised Demographic Dividend--Industry in the Driving Seat." Federation of Indian
Chambers of Commerce and Industry (2011): n. pag. Ey.com. Ernst and Young, 2013. Web.
19
ibid
20
“Rural Urban Distribution of Population.” Censusindia.gov. Census of India. 2011. Web.

10. Killeen
10
onto
the
causality
of
migration
to
and
growth
of
India’s
urban
centers
while
also
highlighting
areas
for
strategic
urbanization
policy
reform.
While
increasing
over
time
in
India’s
rural
and
urban
environments,
Literacy
rates
represent
some
of
the
largest
demographic
imbalances
in
India.
According
to
2011
Indian
Census
data,
rural
literacy
rates
were
68.9%
and
85.0%
in
urban
settings.
Yet
more
remarkable,
Indian
literacy
also
produces
observable
gendered
effects
in
both
rural
and
urban
settings
(See
Figure
5),
with
female
literacy
as
high
as
79.9%
in
urban
environments
and
as
low
as
58.8%
in
rural
areas.
This
data
is
significant
in
that
literacy
is
an
indicator
both
of
basic
educational
attainment
and
of
employability.
It
is
clear
therefore,
that
urban
environments
are
at
worst
associated
with
and
at
best
conducive
to
the
development
of
human
capital.
That
comparative
rates
of
literacy
are
even
more
divergent
for
India’s
female
population
implies
that
an
even
greater
incentive
exists
for
women
to
live
in
urban
environments.
Complementing
this
narrative,
rates
of
rural
and
urban
poverty
in
India
offer
yet
more
evidence
of
comparative
economic
disadvantage
for
India
rural
population.
World
Bank
data
from
201121
reports
21.9%
of
urban
Indians
and
25.7%
of
rural
Indians
as
at
or
below
the
nationally
determined
poverty
line
of
approximately
US
$1.25
income
per
day.
This
figure
is
based
as
a
metric
for
food
security—representing
a
minimum
capital
expenditure
for
an
individual
to
survive.
While
rural
and
urban
poverty
have
both
declined
in
India—41.8%
and
37.2%
in
2004
respectively—the
persistence
of
disparity
in
rates
between
the
geographic
regions
implies
a
sustained
incentive
for
rural-­‐to-­‐urban
migration.
Indian
Economic
Output
&
Labor
Force
Composition
Broadly
separated
into
three
sectors
of
agriculture,
industry,
and
services,
data
on
India’s
sectorial
economic
output
and
labor
force
composition
demonstrate
the
unmet
need
for
efficiently
delivered
urbanization
solutions
both
for
households
and
the
macro-­‐economy.
2011
data
from
India’s
National
Planning
Commission
reports
52%
of
India’s
working
population
employed
in
agriculture,
34%
in
services,
and
14%
in
industry
(See
Figure
6).
These
findings
are
emblematic
of
a
gradual
but
sustained
convergence
of
Indian
labor
force
participation
rates
between
sectors
over
time
(See
Figure
7).
Agriculture
As
the
largest
proportional
employer
of
India’s
workforce,
the
agricultural
sector
remains
an
essential
component
of
India’s
trajectory
for
socio-­‐economic
development.
Research
on
productivity
suggests
that,
throughout
the
20th
century,
sustained
prioritization
by
policy
makers
on
the
agricultural
sector
has
dramatically
improved
average
crop
yields
relative
to
land
use
for
practically
all-­‐agricultural
products22.
This
prioritization
has
come
in
the
form
of
both
federal
and
state
level
investment
in
irrigation,
fertilizers,
and
pesticides
technology
coupled
with
subsidized
credit
lines
for
Indian
farmers.
21
“Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of rural population).” Data.worldbank.org.
The World Bank. 2014. Web.
22
Datt, Ruddar and K.P.M. Sundharar. “Indian Economy.” S. Chand, University of Michigan. 1976. Web

11. Killeen
11
Despite
systemic
agricultural
investment
and
implementation
of
pro-­‐
agricultural
policy,
India’s
agricultural
sector
lags
far
behind
its
true
productive
potential—producing
only
14%
of
total
GDP
(See
Figure
8).
A
2012
World
Bank
report
that,
“nearly
three-­‐quarters
of
India’s
families
depend
on
rural
incomes
[…]
the
majority
of
India’s
poor
(some
770
million
or
about
70
percent)
are
found
in
rural
areas23.”
According
to
the
report,
the
livelihoods
of
these
populations
are
challenged
by
agricultural
subsidy
distortions,
overregulation
of
farmer
activity,
insufficient
infrastructure,
convoluted
value
chains,
and
vulnerability
to
climate
change.
While
the
nuanced
analysis
of
agricultural
policy
reform
in
India
is
beyond
the
scope
of
this
paper,
this
assessment
serves
as
evidence
that
India’s
rural
areas
are
failing
to
deliver
sufficient
economic
development
to
its
poor
inhabitants,
subsequently
promoting
their
migration
to
urban
centers
in
search
of
more
gainful
employment.
Services
Challenging
the
prevailing
conventions
of
economic
development
and
modernization
outlined
in
the
Demographic
Dividend
Theory,
India’s
services
sector
has
emerged
over
the
last
30
years
as
the
primary
driver
of
economic
growth,
accounting
for
some
59%
of
GDP
and
34%
of
labor
force
participation,
prior
to
India’s
industrial
sector
(See
Figure
9).
India’s
services
sector
growth
has
also
historically
outpaced
industry
and
agriculture,
with
growth
of
services-­‐sector
GDP
exceeding
that
of
overall
GDP
since
200124.
The
rapid
and
unprecedented
growth
of
India’s
services
sector
has
been
linked
through
research
to
the
development
of
Indian
urban
centers
in
the
late
20th
century.
The
2012
report,
Services
Sector
in
India:
Trends,
Issues,
and
Way
Forward
by
Arpita
Mukherjee
notes
that
liberalization
of
economic
policy
and
the
removal
of
FDI
restrictions
in
the
1990s
in
India
was
associated
with
increased
domestic
and
foreign
demand
for
highly-­‐skilled
and
low-­‐cost
labor
characteristic
of
the
services
industry25.
This
trend
created
a
feedback
loop—concentrated
particularly
in
cities—
in
which
increased
income
allowed
for
greater
domestic
discretionary
spending,
like
educational
attainment,
which
in
turn
increased
the
value,
and
associated
income,
of
domestically
provided
labor.
Industry
Unarguably
the
most
important
frontier
for
India’s
continued
economic
emergence,
the
industry
sector
represents
a
grossly
underdeveloped
source
of
potential
growth
for
an
Indian
economy
struggling
to
provide
enough
jobs.
Employing
some
14%
of
India’s
total
workforce
and
providing
27%
of
GDP,
the
productive
potential
of
this
sector
has
historically
been
hampered
by
systemic
inefficiencies.
The
2012
McKinsey
Global
Institute
synthesis
report,
“Fulfilling
the
23
“India: Issues and Priorities for Agriculture.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. May 17, 2012. Web.
24
“Service Sector in India.” Ibef.org. India Brand Equity Foundation. February, 2015. Web.
25
“Mukherjee, Arpita. “Services Sector in India: Trends, Issues, and Way Forward. Ipec.gspia.pitt.edu.
May 2012. Web.

12. Killeen
12
promise
of
India’s
manufacturing
sector26,”
identifies—among
other
factors—the
inability
of
manufacturers
to
aggregate
land
and
operate
in
close
proximity,
an
urgent
and
nationwide
lack
of
sufficient
infrastructure,
and
the
insufficient
supply
of
skilled
labor
as
the
main
inhibitors
to
growth.
Subject
to
the
same
late
20th
century
reforms
of
economic
policy
and
investment
liberalization,
India’s
industry
sector
did
not
experience
the
same
GDP
and
labor
force
participation
growth
as
was
seen
in
the
services
sector.
This
stagnation
has
been
attributed
to
increased
competition
in
manufacturing
from
China
and
associated
pressure
towards
technological
innovation
and
cost
reduction,
reducing
employment
generation
in
favor
of
the
implementation
of
highly
mechanized
processes27.
Conveniently,
many
solutions
to
these
issues
are
complementary
and
natural
outcomes
resultant
from
needed
urbanization
policy
reform.
Among
other
objectives,
Narendra
Modi’s
Smart
Cities
Initiative
seeks
to
promote
India’s
industrial
competitiveness
by
providing
urban
environments
in
which
a
versatile
and
skilled
labor
pool
as
well
as
a
modernized
industrial
sector
can
be
developed.
IV.
Environmental
Trends
Complicating
the
narrative
of
Indian
urban
development
substantially,
India’s
increasingly
prominent
role
as
a
contributor
towards
anthropogenic
climate
change
through
fossil-­‐fuel
dependent
industrial
processes
is
both
closely
associated
with
and
perhaps
the
largest
threat
towards
sustained
economic
growth
and
societal
well-­‐being
in
India.
Severing
the
connection
between
greenhouse
gas
emissions
and
economic
development
has
become
a
priority
not
only
for
India,
but
indeed
for
the
global
sustainability
regime.
COP
21
of
the
UNFCCC,
to
be
held
in
Paris
in
December
of
2015,
has
prioritized
the
submission
of
“Intended
Nationally
Determined
Contributions”
(INDCs)
on
green
house
gas
(GHGs)
emissions
reduction
measures.
Aggregated,
these
commitments
will,
ideally,
establish
a
legally
binding
and
global
agreement
on
emissions
reductions—limiting
global
temperature
rise
to
within
2
degrees
Celsius
above
pre-­‐industrial
levels.
The
climate
change
mitigation
actions
and
commitments
of
India,
along
with
China,
Brazil,
and
other
emerging
economies
have
become
central
to
the
agenda
of
the
UNFCCC
as
the
efficiency
through
which
they
achieve
economic
growth
is
increasingly
scrutinized.
While
comparatively
contributing
little
to
annual
total
global
Carbon
Dioxide
emissions
among
G20
countries
(See
Figure
10,
India
highlighted
in
gold),
its
carbon
intensity—the
average
rate
at
which
India’s
economy
converts
a
metric
ton
of
carbon
dioxide
to
a
thousand
US
dollars
of
GDP—is
one
of
the
worst
in
the
worlds
largest
economies
(See
Figure
11,
India
highlighted
in
gold).
Inefficiencies
in
the
economic
delivery
of
Indian
urbanization
have
more
often
than
not
have
come
coupled
with
environmental
inefficiencies.
As
of
2013,
the
IEA
CO2
Emissions
from
Fuel
Combustion
Report
indicates
that
India’s
contribution
of
5%
of
global
CO2
emissions
shows
a
clear
and
rapid
increasing
trend,
likely
to
26
Dhawan, Rajat, Gautam Swaroop, and Adil Zainulbhai. “Fulfilling the promise of India’s manufacturing
sector.” Mckinsey.com. McKinsey Global Institute. March 2012. Web.
27
“Economy of India.” Binet-repository.com. November 2013. Web.

13. Killeen
13
account
for
10%
of
global
emissions
by
203528.
Driving
this
rapid
growth,
India
is
dependent
on
coal,
oil,
and
natural
gas
for
73%
of
its
total
energy
consumption.
This
dependence
produced
both
localized
and
global
pollutant
effects.
The
book
Urban
Transport
Environment
and
Equity:
The
Case
for
Developing
Countries
by
Eduardo
Vasconcellos
notes
that
poorer
groups
within
developing
countries,
often
dependent
on
walking
or
bicycling
to
work,
are
disproportionately
affected
by
roadside
air
pollution
from
automobile
gasoline
combustion.
These
effects,
of
course,
are
concentrated
in
urban
high-­‐density
settings29.
This
pollution
also
exacts
a
substantial
economic
cost,
estimated
to
have
cost
US
$500
billion
in
India
in
2010
alone30.
Commissioned
by
the
World
Bank
to
assess
the
sectorial
impacts
of
temperature
increase
scenarios
in
India
ranging
from
2°-­‐4°
Celsius,
the
Potsdam
Institute
for
Climate
Impact
Research
and
Climate
Analytics
outlines
a
grim
future
for
India’s
urban,
peri-­‐urban,
and
rural
environments
given
insufficient
mitigation
action
and
continuation
of
current
trends
of
consumption.
Their
2013
report,
4°
Turn
Down
the
Heat:
Climate
Extremes,
Regional
Impacts,
and
the
Case
for
Resilience31,
identifies
a
host
of
anthropogenic
climate
effects
in
the
subcontinent
such
as
changing
rainfall
patterns,
air
and
water
pollution,
sea
level
rise,
urban
heat-­‐
islands
(UHI),
drought,
and
glacier
melt.
Combined
these
factors
represent
an
imminent
threat
to
the
security
of
India’s
agriculture
and
food
production,
energy
and
water
access,
and
health
resources.
V.
India’s
Infrastructure
Bottlenecks
&
Historic
Urban
Development
Framework
Having
established
the
broad
dynamics
underlying
Indian
labor
force
participation
and
economic
growth
trends,
exploring
under
what
conditions
India’s
promised
demographic
dividend
can
be
delivered
is
essential
to
understanding
the
feasibility
of
proposed
reform.
Meeting
this
demand,
a
large
and
growing
body
of
research
conducted
by
a
range
of
government,
private,
and
civil-­‐society
institutions
has
assessed
different
facets
of
India’s
historic
urban
development
framework
through
the
context
of
projected
rapid
urbanization
growth
and
climate
change.
Reconciling
these
different
narratives
reveals
insight
on
how
India’s
need
for
economic
growth,
increased
urban
space,
and
sustainability
may
be
equitably
delivered
through
centralized
policy
reform.
Need
for
Infrastructure
28
“CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion.” Iea.org. International Energy Agency, 2013. Web.
29
“Vasconcellos, Eduardo. “Urban Transport Envrionment and Equity: The Case for Developing
Countries.” Earthscan Publications, 2001. Web.
30
V., V. "India 2014 Economic Servey." (n.d.): n. pag. Oecd.org. Organization for Economic Co-Operation
and Development, 2014. Web.
31
Colet, Arthur. "Turn down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience."
The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (n.d.): n. pag. The World Bank,
2014. Web.

14. Killeen
14
The
2010
McKinsey
Global
Institute
synthesis
report,
India’s
urban
awakening:
Building
inclusive
cities,
sustaining
economic
growth32,
projects
that
India’s
urban
population
is
set
to
increase
from
340
million
in
2008
to
590
million
by
2030.
As
outlined
earlier,
factors
contributing
to
this
trend
include
greater
access
to
education,
lower
rates
of
poverty,
agricultural
sector
disincentives,
and
opportunities
for
urban-­‐based
employment
in
the
services
and
industry
sectors.
The
report
estimates
that,
to
meet
demand
for
urban
space,
India’s
government
will
need
to
partially
finance
and
oversee
the
creation
of
“between
700
–
900
million
square
meters
of
residential
and
commercial
space
per
year
through
2030.”
Connecting
these
spaces,
India’s
cities
must
also
construct
350
–
400
kilometers
of
metros
and
subways
as
well
as
19,000
–
25,000
kilometers
of
road
lanes
annually.
India’s
Historic
Urban
Development
Framework
Financing
the
creation
of
this
infrastructure
is
projected
to
be
exorbitantly
expensive—costing
approximately
US
$1.2
trillion
in
capital
expenditure
alone
through
203033.
These
costs
have
been
made
more
onerous,
however,
through
the
historic
implementation
of
federal
policy,
preventing
effective
economic
empowerment
and
sustainability
of
its
cities.
Factors
promoting
this
dynamic
include
underinvestment
in
residential,
commercial,
and
transit
infrastructure,
restrictive
land
use
policy,
spatial
asymmetry
in
access
to
municipal
services,
and
opaque
municipal
governance.
Before
considering
the
growth
implications
of
India’s
current
efforts
towards
urban
development,
it
is
important
to
note
that,
in
terms
of
per-­‐capita
investment,
India’s
cities
lags
well
behind
other
globalized
cities
upon
which
much
of
proposed
policy
reform
is
modeled.
For
example,
as
of
2010
Indian
per-­‐capita
capital
expenditure
on
urban
environments
was
US
$17,
compared
to
US
$116
in
China’s
largest
cities
and
US
$292
in
New
York34.
The
implications
of
this
lack
of
federally
sourced
infrastructure
investment
are
far
reaching.
In
regards
to
electricity
access,
India’s
cities
remains
woefully
under
connected
to
reliable
sources
of
power.
Due
to
a
lack
of
federal
energy
infrastructure
investment
nearly
20%
of
India’s
urban
and
peri-­‐urban
population,
some
75
million,
were
classified
as
“energy
impoverished35”
in
2010,
lacking
access
to
energy
sources
commensurate
with
their
demonstrated
need.
Concerning
urban
water
sources,
while
more
than
90%
of
India’s
urban
population
has
access
to
drinking
water,
less
than
50%
of
these
sources
are
piped
and
no
Indian
cities
receive
piped
water
24/736.
Among
these
water
sources,
frequent
raw
sewage
and
industrial
wastewater
overflow
in
receiving
bodies
and
groundwater
sources
is
a
health
threat
both
to
urban
communities
and
to
the
aquatic
biodiversity
upon
which
many
Indians
depend.
32
Schanka, Shirish. "India's Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth.".
McKinsey Global Institute, Apr. 2010. Web.
33
ibid
34
ibid
35
“Khandker, Shahidur. “Energy Poverty in Rural and Urban India: Are the Energy Poor also Income
Poor?” worldbank.org. Development Research Group, Agriculture and Rural Development Team.
November 2010. Web.
36
“Urban Water Supply in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. July 4, 2011. Web.

15. Killeen
15
Representing
one
of
the
largest
challenges
for
increased
urbanization
in
India,
pricing
for
municipal
services
in
India’s
cities
act
as
a
regressive
tax,
conventionally
placing
the
greatest
burden
on
their
poorest
residents
and
promoting
unauthorized
connections
to
energy,
water,
and
wastewater
networks.
For
example,
a
2013
World
Bank
study
on
electricity
tariffs
reported
that
the
“average
household
consuming
less
than
30kWh
a
month
pays
more
per
unit
of
electricity
than
even
the
average
household
consuming
more
than
300kWh
a
month37.”
This
trend
is
self-­‐perpetuating
in
that
unauthorized
connections
reduce
the
ability
of
utility
providers
to
recover
costs
and
invest
in
system
maintenance—
leading
to
yet
higher
costs
for
system
connection.
India’s
history
of
rigid
land-­‐use
policy
also
represents
a
central
inhibitor
to
severely
needed
urban
development.
Based
off
McKinsey
Global
Institute’s
2013
assessment
of
expected
urban
population
growth
and
needed
urban-­‐spatial
extension,
it
is
clear
that
a
comprehensive
urban
growth
policy
framework
must
outline
mechanisms
to
both
increase
the
population
density
of
existing
urban
areas
and
also
to
acquire
neighboring
land.
The
2013
World
Bank
Report,
Urbanization
beyond
Municipal
Boundaries38,
notes
that
India
lacks
any
independent
institution
through
which
to
ensure
the
proper
and
transparent
function
of
land-­‐markets,
instead
governed
under
antiquated
laws
with
many
opportunities
for
corruption
and
collusion.
Associated
with
long
standing
and
deeply
rooted
concerns
over
infrastructure
quality
in
modernizing
states,
restrictive
Floor
Space
Ratio
(FSI)
requirements
in
India’s
urban
periphery
are
a
major
growth
inhibitor.
Because
of
these
restrictions,
high-­‐density
urban
development
in
India
is
characterized
by
far
lower
rates
of
horizontal
expansion
than
in
developed
states39,
even
though
doing
would
use
land
more
efficiently,
utilizing
on
economies
of
scale
to
reduce
operational
costs
per
unit
of
land.
Functionally
this
has
meant
that
high
value
urban
development
in
Indian
cities
is
concentrated
in
the
core—in
which
there
are
comparatively
lax
urban
density
requirements.
Meanwhile,
rigid
FSI
regulation
on
the
urban
periphery,
combined
with
high
rates
of
rural
to
urban
migration,
leads
to
the
chaotic
and
unplanned
growth
of
slums,
often
lacking
any
access
to
the
electricity
or
water
grid.
This
trend
has
observable
welfare
impacts.
For
example,
in
Bangalore,
FSI-­‐induced
sprawl
causes
average
welfare
losses
of
4.5
percent
to
household
incomes
owing
to
higher
commuting
costs40.
Again
these
effects
are
regressive
in
that
they
disproportionately
punish
residents
on
the
urban
periphery,
most
frequently
poor
and
formerly
rural
migrants
seeking
employment.
Given
the
growing
fragmentation
and
sprawl
of
India’s
largest
cities,
providing
transit
infrastructure
and
efficient
modes
of
public
transportation
has
become
increasingly
important
to
facilitating
urban
commerce.
It
is
clear
that
compact
and
public
transport-­‐oriented
urban
development
deliver
economic
and
37
Pargal, Sheoli and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee. “More Power to India: The Challenge of Electricity
Distribution.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2014. Web.
38
“Urbanization beyond Municipal Boundaries: Nurturing Metropolitan Economies and Connecting Peri-
Urban Areas in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2013. Web.
39
ibid
40
ibid

16. Killeen
16
environmental
benefits
compared
to
the
increasingly
commonplace
norm
of
sprawling
private
car-­‐dependent
accessibility
models.
Despite
these
incentives,
India’s
federal
and
urban
governance
bodies
have
approved
the
unrestricted
growth
of
urban
motorization,
with
some
research
suggesting
that
India’s
urban
vehicle
fleet
growth
exceeds
significant
urban
population
growth,
resulting
in
urban
commutes
30
percent
slower
than
in
lesser-­‐populated
towns41.
Growth
of
urban
private
car
ownership
has
also
exacerbated
India’s
urban
transit
infrastructural
shortcomings.
Due
to
excessively
high
prices
and
asymmetrical
service
to
the
urban
periphery,
India’s
urban
public
transport
system
is
plagued
by
low-­‐leveled
ridership.
These
transit
costs
are
not
only
imposed
on
citizens,
but
also
on
firms.
Research
from
the
World
Bank
in
2013
suggests
that
companies
shipping
products
into
and
out
from
India’s
urban
centers
face
freight
costs
twice
the
national
average
and
more
than
five
times
that
as
in
the
United
States42.
These
costs
have
profound
implications
on
the
viability
of
India’s
industrial
sector,
as
the
sale
of
manufactured
products
almost
always
has
associated
freight
transport
costs.
Underlying
this
litany
of
urban
infrastructural,
developmental
policy,
and
municipal
service
shortcomings,
the
opacity
through
which
urban
policy
is
formulated—operating
within
India’s
byzantine
parliamentary
structure—limits
the
equity
and
efficacy
of
delivered
urban
development
solutions.
For
example,
overlapping
jurisdiction
for
regulation
and
development
of
Indian
urban
municipal
resources
has
prevented
the
implementation
of
harmonized
business
and
environmental
regulations,
arrangements
for
utility
networking
between
cities,
and
connective
transit
infrastructure43.
Transparency
therefore
remains
a
necessary
complement
to
any
re-­‐envisioning
of
Indian
urban
development.
With
this
historical
and
environmental
context
in
mind
becomes
clear
that
India’s
cities
are
already
struggling
to
provide
a
basic
quality
of
life
to
the
majority
of
its
inhabitants,
having
underinvested
in
urban
infrastructure
and
services.
India’s
new
working
age
population
will
need
substantially
more
jobs,
housing,
transit
and
utility
services,
and
connectivity
than
currently
available
in
India’s
urban
or
rural
environments.
Therefore,
meeting
the
demands
of
India’s
rapidly
growing
working
age
population
will
require
a
re-­‐envisioning
and
expansion
of
its
urban
infrastructure.
VI.
Content
of
the
Smart
Cities
Initiative
Observing
the
significant
socio-­‐economic
and
environmental
costs
imposed
upon
Indian
society
due
to
insufficient,
inequitable,
and
unsustainable
urban
development
and
recognizing
the
enormous
potential
for
growth
promised
under
India’s
demographic
dividend,
it
is
clear
that
India
needs
a
sweeping
re-­‐envisioning
of
urban
development
policy.
Establishing
salient
linkages
between
urban
design,
41
Badami, Madhav and M. Haider. “An Analysis of Public Bus Transit Performance in Indian Cities.”
Academica.edu. Science Direct. 2007. Web.
42
“Urbanization beyond Municipal Boundaries: Nurturing Metropolitan Economies and Connecting Peri-
Urban Areas in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2013. Web.
43
Rao, Nirmala. “Reshaping City Governance: London, Mumbai, Kolkata, Hyderabad.” Routledge
Contemporary South Asia Series. 2015. Web.

17. Killeen
17
economic
benefit
across
strata
of
Indian
society,
and
environmental
sustainability
will
be
essential
to
the
feasibility
of
such
a
model.
Outlining,
arguably,
the
most
ambitious
urban
development
project
of
the
21st
century,
Narendra
Modi’s
Smart
Cities
Initiative44
benchmarks
the
creation
of
100
new
“smart”
cities—with
modernized
and
environmentally
sustainable
transport,
housing,
utility,
and
connectivity
services.
This
expansive
policy
framework
has
been
announced
to
meet
the
demand
for
increased
urbanization
in
India
in
the
context
of
climate
change.
Announced
in
2014
during
his
campaign
for
Prime
Minister,
Narendra
Modi’s
Smart
Cities
Initiative
was
initially
released
as
a
framework
of
performance
metrics45,
identifying
urban
economic
drivers
and
outlining
a
strategy
for
the
development
of
equitable
infrastructure
solutions.
Among
these
metrics
are
the
24/7
provision
of
utility
services
such
as
electricity,
water,
and
waste
water
treatment,
expansion
and
reform
of
public
transit
systems
to
better
serve
urban
poor,
reform
of
land
use
policy,
expansion
of
Wi-­‐Fi
and
telephone
connectivity
networks,
provision
of
health
care
and
education
services,
and
the
implementation
wherever
possible
of
green
technology
and
renewable
energy
solutions.
Importantly,
these
benchmarks
were
coupled
with
the
release
of
a
hierarchal
financing
strategy46,
outlining
federal
allocation
commitments
and
expectations
for
private
sector
participation
to
meet
the
US
$1.2
trillion
by
2025
capital
expenditure
estimate.
According
to
this
document,
private
sector
participation,
both
through
Public-­‐Private
Partnerships
as
well
as
through
private
investment,
should
account
for
40%
of
all
capital
expenditures.
This
would
then
be
coupled
by
federal
government
allocation
of
up
to
40%
of
required
funding
through
Viability
Gap
Financing47
(VGF)
over
the
next
20
years.
VGF
in
particular
was
included
to
target
private
sector
sustainability
ventures
lacking
the
demonstrable
credit
worthiness
to
acquire
financing
on
the
open
capital
market.
To
meet
the
remaining
20%
of
associated
costs
for
the
Initiative,
Urban
Local
Bodies
(ULBs)—or
municipal
governments—were
expected
to
raise
funding
for
local
urban
development
initiatives
through
the
sale
of
undeveloped
and
state
held
land
to
the
private
sector
for
development.
Necessary
policy
complements
to
this
financing
strategy
have
also
been
outlined
in
the
hierarchal
financing
strategy.
Among
these
recommendations,
betterment
of
land
use
policy
(through
relaxation
of
FSI
regulation)
to
take
advantage
of
higher
property
prices,
implementation
of
full
cost
recovery
tariff
structures
for
municipal
services,
provision
of
SCI
consultation
opportunities
to
promote
transparency,
and
increased
interface
of
Indian
state-­‐level
authorities
with
international
financing
bodies
such
as
the
United
States
and
the
UNFCCC
Green
44
“Smart Cities Initiative.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. 2014. Web.
45
Arora, Swapnil. "Benchmarks for Smart Cities." (n.d.): n. pag. Indiansmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban
Development, 2014. Web.
46
“Draft Concept Note on Smart City Scheme.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development.
March 2014. Web.
47
"Viability Gap Funding (VGF)." Arthapedia.in. India Economic Service, 2014. Web.

18. Killeen
18
Climate
Fund48
hold
particular
promise
in
addressing
systemic
roadblocks
to
equitable
urban
development
in
India.
VII.
Progress
and
Criticisms
of
the
Smart
Cities
Initiative
Consultations
and
Forums
Representing
one
of
the
more
notable
successes
of
the
initiative
so
far,
the
Modi
administration
has
facilitated
a
series
of
consultations
and
forums
for
community
insight
on
policy
implementation.
These
consultations
have
been
held
to
identify
parameters
like
infrastructure,
citizen-­‐centric
services,
and
sustainability
to
be
considered
in
policy
making49.
So
far,
the
SCI
has
opened
a
number
of
online
forums
on
different
components
of
the
initiative,
where
individuals
can
express
their
opinions50.
Modi
also
began,
as
of
December
2014,
hosting
consultations
with
high-­‐ranking
state
and
federal
officials
on
the
SCI51.
While
representing
important
progress,
these
consultations
and
forums—
thus
far—represent
a
policy
failure.
The
online
forum
series
has
failed
to
engender
large-­‐scale
community
based
discussion
on
components
of
the
initiative
while
the
more
substantive
series
of
consultations
have
not
been
made
available
for
public
attendance.
Run
under
India’s
Ministry
of
Urban
Development,
these
consultations
have
not
even
equitably
involved
state-­‐level
representatives,
inviting
only
selected
state
level
authorities.
Domestic
Sustainability
Investments
Announced
to
set
the
tone
for
private
sector
involvement
in
the
SCI,
the
Modi
administration
has
set
the
ambitious
target
to
add
100
GW
total
renewable
energy
capacity
by
2022
to
fuel
India’s
new
cities—representing
3
times
the
amount
currently
available52.
To
catalyze
investment,
India’s
largest
power
generation
firm,
NTPC,
announced
in
2015
its
commitment
to
invest
US
$10
billion
in
renewable
energy
projects
through
2020
in
order
to
develop
10
GW
of
energy
capacity53.
The
State
Bank
of
India
(SBI)
has
also
committed
US
$12.5
billion
in
debt
funding
to
renewable
energy
projects
over
the
next
few
years54.
While
these
commitments
should
be
lauded
for
their
ambitiousness
and
scale,
the
unfortunate
truth
of
these
announcements
is
that
they
are
not
binding,
representing
more
a
conviction
of
the
Modi
administration.
While
these
investments
should
not
be
taken
lightly,
and
have
in
fact
begun
to
be
utilized
in
development
of
48
"Green Climate Fund." Unfccc.int. The United Nations, 2014. Web.
49
R, Smitri. "Modi Wants Parameters Identified for Smart Cities." Thehindu.com. The Hindu Times, 30
Dec. 2014. Web.
50
“Smart Cities Initiative.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. 2014. Web.
51
“PM begins intensive consultations on Smart City Initiative.” Narendramodi.in. 29 December, 2014.
Web.
52
Mattai, Smitti. "India Plans Association Of Top 50 Solar Power Nations." CleanTechnica, 24 Feb. 2015.
Web.
53
Mattai, Smiti. "India’s NTPC To Invest $10 Billion In Renewable Energy Projects." CleanTechnica, 23
Feb. 2015. Web.
54
Mattai, Smitti. "India's Largest Bank Commits $12.5 Billion For Renewable Energy Funding."
CleanTechnica, 19 Feb. 2015. Web.

19. Killeen
19
the
Delhi-­‐Mumbai
Industrial
Corridor.
It
is
unlikely
that
they
will
be
delivered
in
their
entirety.
Delhi-­‐Mumbai
Corridor
India
has
begun
formally
seeking
bids
for
the
construction
of
core
infrastructure
in
the
Delhi-­‐Mumbai
corridor.
As
a
model
project
of
the
SCI,
these
investments
will
be
directed
towards
the
construction
of
an
expansive
road
network,
creation
of
utility
services,
administrative
buildings,
and
waste-­‐water
treatment
plants55
in
and
around
the
eagerly
anticipated
proposed
Gujarat-­‐Dholera
International
Finance
Tech-­‐City56.
These
infrastructure
investments
at
face
value
represent
an
important
first
step
towards
reconciling
the
need
for
economic
growth
and
urbanization
with
sustainability.
However,
local
opposition
to
the
Delhi-­‐Mumbai
corridor
has
already
gained
traction,
with
local
farmer
advocacy
groups
organizing
tractor
rallies
against
the
forcible
acquisition
of
the
local
municipal
government
of
farmer
held
land
to
then
be
sold
as
ULBs
to
the
federally
contracted
property
developers57.
Concerns
also
remain
over
to
ability
of
India’s
domestic
corporate
and
banking
sectors
to
effectively
manage
development
projects
under
the
SCI.
The
2014
GMT
Research
Report,
Evaluating
India:
Rotten
to
the
Core58,
notes
that
Indian
banks
and
corporate
bodies
have
historically
flattered
their
outlook
to
investors
by
acquiring
cheap
foreign
funding
and
by
obfuscating
data
on
expenditure
and
losses.
As
a
result
there
are
fears
that
funding
for
the
SCI
could
end
up
in
the
hands
of
India’s
overleveraged
and
incompetent
corporate
and
banking
sectors,
and
therefore
should
not
be
trusted.
This
case
study
also
demonstrates
a
failing
of
the
SCI
in
that
local
municipal
government
was
not
adequately
informed
of
planned
regional
development.
Therefore
the
local
community
was
not
given
a
say
of
SCI
fund
allocation,
effectively
excluded
from
the
consultation
process.
These
concerns
are
perhaps
more
emblematic
of
the
greater
fear
that
the
Smart
Cities
Initiative
is
an
example
of
policy-­‐
need
mismatch.
India’s
growing
urban
population
is
primarily
driven
by
migration
from
rural
areas
to
the
periphery
of
cities.
Already
on
the
socio-­‐economic
fringes
of
society
it
seems
as
though
these
groups
could
be
better
served
by
policy
promoting
affordable
housing,
utilities,
and
employment
opportunities
as
opposed
to
Wi-­‐Fi
connectivity
and
internet
access.
VIII.
Policy
Reform
Recommendations
and
Conclusion
Faced
with
immense
potential
for—and
burden
of—directing
economic
growth,
India
is
a
contemporary
oddity.
No
other
nation
currently
retains
such
a
radically
evolving
internal
demographic
of
such
global
economic
importance
with
a
55
Seth, Dilasha. “Smart Cities: Gujarat’s Dholera zone sets pace for the flagship programme in new year.”
Economictimes.indiatimes.com. 5 January, 2015. Web.
56
“Gujarat International Finance Tec-City.” Giftgujarat.in. 2011. Web.
57
"Farmers’ Tractor Rally from Vithlapur to Gandhinagar against the Mandal-Becharaji SIR on as
Planned." Bilkulonline.com. Bilkul, 2014. Web.
58
Tulloch, Gillem “Evaluating India: Rottten to the Core.” Gmtresearch.com. GMT Research. 25 June
2014. Web.

20. Killeen
20
governance
framework
through
which
to
pursue
policy
reform
democratically.
While
migration
to
and
growth
of
India’s
urban
centers
represent
an
urgent
policy
reform
imperative,
doing
so
without
consideration
of
its
quickly
receding
environmental
heritage
would
be
just
as
much
a
failure.
Prime
Minister
Narendra
Modi,
therefore,
has
outlined
an
ambitious
development
framework
to
reconcile
the
demand
for
urbanization
with
sustainability
through
the
Smart
Cities
Initiative.
While
some
of
its
associated
policy
reform
has
fallen
short
it
is
important
to
note
that
the
SCI
is
still
in
its
early
stages.
The
Modi
administration
can
take
valuable
lessons
from
these
experiences.
Even
though
they
have
so
far
failed
to
engender
systemic
and
community
based
involvement
in
the
SCI,
implementation
of
consultations
and
forums
sets
an
important
precedent
for
increasing
stakeholder
buy-­‐in
and
investor
follow
through
for
subsequent
projects
in
the
initiative
as
they
can
be
made
integral
contributors
of
urbanization
solutions.
Balancing
the
need
for
feedback
with
organizational
strength,
improving
the
transparency
through
which
urbanization
solutions
are
reached
can
best
be
achieved
by
the
gradual
extension
of
consultations
and
forums
from
only
government
officials
to
involve
proven
stakeholders
of
the
community
to
participate.
In
this
way,
information
on
welfare
altering
policy
can
be
quickly
disseminated
and
communicated
throughout
the
community
without
having
to
organize
costly
and
time-­‐inefficient
public
debates.
Coordinating
these
forums
and
consultations
with
other
state
level
governing
bodies
is
another
essential
extension
of
transparency
reform
in
the
SCI.
Doing
so
will
provide
an
opportunity
for
discussion
on
and
potential
implementation
of
regionally
connected
systems
of
energy
efficient
municipal
service
provisioning
and
transport
infrastructure.
Supplementary
to
this
expanded
commitment
to
public
consultation,
the
Modi
administration
must
back
up
its
investment
commitments
with
action
on
the
ground
to
legitimize
their
heavy-­‐handedness
on
cultural
opposition
like
that
seen
in
Gujarat-­‐Dholera.
In
fact,
delivering
on
community
benefitting
and
equitably
delivered
investments,
such
as
development
of
utility
services,
prior
to
acquisition
of
municipality
held
land
could
demonstrate
the
commitment
of
the
federal
government
to
equitable
urban
reform.
Furthermore,
by
targeting
policy
reform
on
that
most
beneficial
to
poor
communities,
such
as
Land
Policy
and
Urban
Density
Management
Reform
(Vertical
expansion
laws)
in
urban
peripheries,
India’s
federal
government
can
promote
secure
residency
for
the
urban
poor,
associated
with
greater
educational
attainment
and
employment
opportunities.
In
loosening
these
restrictions,
however,
India’s
federal
government
must
be
cognizant
of
the
increased
risk
for
domestic
corporate
and
banking
sector
mismanagement.
The
Modi
administration
could
address
this
issue
at
its
core
through
implementation
of
corporate
and
banking
stringency
reform.
By
overseeing
the
repair
and
stringent
evaluation
of
corporate
balance
sheets
through
effective
regulators,
the
Modi
administration
can
force
companies
to
confront
delivered
system
inefficiencies
and
make
them
subject
to
enforceable
regulation.
Banking
stringency
similarly
can
force
banks
to
acknowledge
non
or
underperforming
loans
and
to
raise
capital.
These
steps,
well
within
the
purview
of
Modi’s
administration,
could
discipline
the
corporate
and
banking
sectors—promoting
informed
investment,
transparency,
and
service
performance.