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Martin Petrushevski
Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png

 Sources: Nichol et al. 2006, Eurostat 2010, Gazprom 2013,
Wintershall                                                         ENI
                     15%                                                              20%
                                                                 Gazprom
    EDF                                                           50%
    15%




Image Source: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/85/290063/cdm40995_edit.jpg
Source: Gazprom 2012
                                                                           Total cost 15.5bil EUR
2,500km
                                                                                      long
Image Source: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/44/270918/southern-corridor-2-en.jpg
 383$            per 1,000m³ 2011

      305$            per 1,000m³ 2010

      Due             to competition with Norway’s Statoil

      Minimum  price with zero margin
     160$ per 1,000m³ - room to reduce price

Source: Gazprom 2011
 Coal                 70% of energy production
   Expensive                         electricity
   Natural  gas is abundant
   Natural  gas power plants are a cost-
    competitive alternative
   Natural gas in power generation offers
    significant emission reductions
   Important role in decarbonizing energy mix
   Advantages beyond power generation
   Supports European Economic development
    and competitiveness
Source: European Gas Advocacy forum
gas
                      imported hydro
                                        2.4% geothermal
                     electricity 5.1%           0.4%
                        5.6%
              biomass
                 6%
                                                            coal
                                                            47%


                           oil
                          35%




Home Production: 51,53%
Imported: 48,47%
Source: MANU 2008
                                                          Year
 Imported  from Russia from Corridor 8
  (Ukraine, Moldova, Romania,Bulgaria)
 Total imported and distributed gas for 2011
  approx. 136mil/m³ 16,9% of capacity
                                  Kriva Palanka
                                  Kratovo
                                  Kumanovo
                                  Skopje


                                        “Dark age”

                               Source: Annual report on the work of the regulatory commission
                               for energy sector in Macedonia in 2011
Source: MGA 2008
 Toplifikacija47mil/m³
 Makstil AD 27mil/m³
 TE-TO 21mil/m³
 ELEM 9mil/m³               Doesn’t cover
 Mital Stil 8mil/m³          households
 Pivara 3mil/m³
 Zito Luks 3mil/m³


1company transport, trade & distribution
 GA-MA AD Skopje
Quantity x10³ m³

  140000


  120000


  100000


    80000


    60000


    40000


    20000


           0
                   1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011



 Data Source: Indexmundi
Primary energy sources in Macedonia by 2020
                               renewables
                                  12%

                gas
                16%




                                             oil and coal
                                                  72%




Source: Energy Strategy 2009
Total pipeline length 790,663m
              Total Investments
              311,595,854 EUR




                Source: Jovanovski 2008
Source: Energy Strategy 2009
 Micro-economic
 Macro-economic
 Sustainableaspect
 Environmental aspect
 Opportunity            to choose energy as input for the
    consumers
   Increase of the competitiveness *
   Faster dynamic of development of the
    technological developmental zones and
    increased employment



  * the World Economic Forum ranked the economies according to their
        competitiveness. It has introduced a specific column for the
        infrastructure as an efficient driver of the competitiveness

Source: WBIF 2011
 Potential  reduction of the current account
      deficit due to the reduced import of
      electricity
     Improve living conditions of citizens




Source: MINA 2012
 Constant   supply with possible low prices
 Reduction    in pollution
- Due to 80% of electricity generated from
  fossil fuels

 Noproblems with storage and negative
 impact on the environment
 Increased  use of natural gas throughout
  the country, accompanied by
  economic, social, and environmental
  benefits
 Further development of the power sector
 Strengthening energy security
Source: Indexmundi   Image Source:
                     http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?t=0&v=137&r=eu&l=en
1.5% annual growth
in world




Factors:
• Slow economic
growth
•Renewable energy
•Energy policies
Benefits              Cons
 Energy stability    • Increase energy
 Producing cheap     dependence on
  electricity         Russia
 Used for heating
                      •Reduce share of
 Increasing
  competition and     renewable in
  innovation in the   energy sector
  industry sector
 Decrease GHG
  emissions
25th June 2012




Macedonia       Gazprom
   Analytica, 2008. Natural gas – an energy necessity for Macedonia. URL:
    http://analyticamk.org/files/ReportNo15.pdf
   BP 2012. Statistical Review of World Energy – June 2012. Internet Source. Date accessed: 28.03.2012. URL:
    http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481
   Energy Sector in Macedonia, 2011. Annual report on the work of the regulatory commission for energy sector in
    Macedonia in 2011. Skopje: Government Publishing
   European Gas Advocacy Forum, 2011. The Future Role of Natural Gas. A position paper by the European Gas
    Advocacy Forum. URL: http://www.gazpromexport.ru/content/file/egaf/Making_the_green_journey_work_-
    _web_version.pdf
   Gas Infrastructure Europe, 2011. System Development Map. URL:
    http://www.gie.eu.com/download/maps/ENTSOG_SYSDEV_MAP2011.pdf
   Gazprom 2011. Annual Report. Internet source. Date accessed: 28.03.2013. URL:
    http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/60/660385/annual-report-2011-eng.pdf
   Image “Consumption Projections MK”; “Final Consumption”; “Future Projections Total Gas Demand”; “Gas Demand
    2040”; “Gas Consumption in EU”. Jovanovski and Kontradenko 2008
   Image “Future Projections EU”. IEA, 2009.
   Image “Macedonia and Gazprom”. URL: http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/macedonia-south-stream-pipeline
   Image “Investments”. URL: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/85/290063/cdm40995_edit.jpg
   IMF, 2011. Electricity Demand and Supply Image. URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1130.pdf
   Indexmundi. Historical Data Graphs per Year. URL: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=mk&v=137
   International Gas Union, 2008. Macedonia Natural Gas Situation Oct 2008. URL:
    http://www.igu.org/knowledge/members-information-about-natural-gas-markets/macedonia-natural-gas-situation-
    oct-2008.pdf/at_download/file
   Jovanovski. Lj. and Kontradenko, Z. 2008. Gas Infrastructure in Republic of Macedonia. A presentation prepared
    for the 5th Gas Forum. Brdo Kranj – Slovenia.
   Macedoniaonline. Macedonia Officially joins South Stream Gas pipeline. Internet article. Date Accessed:
    24.03.2013. URL: http://macedoniaonline.eu/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=21361
   Map “Present Gas supply in Macedonia”. URL: http://www.realfuture.org/wordpress/wp-
    content/uploads/2009/08/balkan_area_southeast_europe_pipelines_map.jpg
   Macedonian Academy for Sciences and Art (MANU) 2009. Strategy for Energy Sector Development for the period
    2008-2020, with a vision for 2030. Skopje: Governmental Publishing.
   Map “South East Pipeline Route”. URL: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/44/270918/southern-corridor-2-en.jpg

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Petrushevski Martin - South Stream Pipeline in Macedonia

  • 2. Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png Sources: Nichol et al. 2006, Eurostat 2010, Gazprom 2013,
  • 3. Wintershall ENI 15% 20% Gazprom EDF 50% 15% Image Source: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/85/290063/cdm40995_edit.jpg Source: Gazprom 2012 Total cost 15.5bil EUR
  • 4. 2,500km long Image Source: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/44/270918/southern-corridor-2-en.jpg
  • 5.  383$ per 1,000m³ 2011  305$ per 1,000m³ 2010  Due to competition with Norway’s Statoil  Minimum price with zero margin 160$ per 1,000m³ - room to reduce price Source: Gazprom 2011
  • 6.  Coal 70% of energy production  Expensive electricity  Natural gas is abundant  Natural gas power plants are a cost- competitive alternative  Natural gas in power generation offers significant emission reductions  Important role in decarbonizing energy mix  Advantages beyond power generation  Supports European Economic development and competitiveness Source: European Gas Advocacy forum
  • 7. gas imported hydro 2.4% geothermal electricity 5.1% 0.4% 5.6% biomass 6% coal 47% oil 35% Home Production: 51,53% Imported: 48,47% Source: MANU 2008 Year
  • 8.  Imported from Russia from Corridor 8 (Ukraine, Moldova, Romania,Bulgaria)  Total imported and distributed gas for 2011 approx. 136mil/m³ 16,9% of capacity Kriva Palanka Kratovo Kumanovo Skopje “Dark age” Source: Annual report on the work of the regulatory commission for energy sector in Macedonia in 2011
  • 10.  Toplifikacija47mil/m³  Makstil AD 27mil/m³  TE-TO 21mil/m³  ELEM 9mil/m³ Doesn’t cover  Mital Stil 8mil/m³ households  Pivara 3mil/m³  Zito Luks 3mil/m³ 1company transport, trade & distribution GA-MA AD Skopje
  • 11. Quantity x10³ m³ 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Data Source: Indexmundi
  • 12. Primary energy sources in Macedonia by 2020 renewables 12% gas 16% oil and coal 72% Source: Energy Strategy 2009
  • 13. Total pipeline length 790,663m Total Investments 311,595,854 EUR Source: Jovanovski 2008
  • 15.  Micro-economic  Macro-economic  Sustainableaspect  Environmental aspect
  • 16.  Opportunity to choose energy as input for the consumers  Increase of the competitiveness *  Faster dynamic of development of the technological developmental zones and increased employment * the World Economic Forum ranked the economies according to their competitiveness. It has introduced a specific column for the infrastructure as an efficient driver of the competitiveness Source: WBIF 2011
  • 17.  Potential reduction of the current account deficit due to the reduced import of electricity  Improve living conditions of citizens Source: MINA 2012
  • 18.  Constant supply with possible low prices
  • 19.  Reduction in pollution - Due to 80% of electricity generated from fossil fuels  Noproblems with storage and negative impact on the environment
  • 20.  Increased use of natural gas throughout the country, accompanied by economic, social, and environmental benefits  Further development of the power sector  Strengthening energy security
  • 21. Source: Indexmundi Image Source: http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?t=0&v=137&r=eu&l=en
  • 22. 1.5% annual growth in world Factors: • Slow economic growth •Renewable energy •Energy policies
  • 23.
  • 24. Benefits Cons  Energy stability • Increase energy  Producing cheap dependence on electricity Russia  Used for heating •Reduce share of  Increasing competition and renewable in innovation in the energy sector industry sector  Decrease GHG emissions
  • 26. Analytica, 2008. Natural gas – an energy necessity for Macedonia. URL: http://analyticamk.org/files/ReportNo15.pdf  BP 2012. Statistical Review of World Energy – June 2012. Internet Source. Date accessed: 28.03.2012. URL: http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=7500&contentId=7068481  Energy Sector in Macedonia, 2011. Annual report on the work of the regulatory commission for energy sector in Macedonia in 2011. Skopje: Government Publishing  European Gas Advocacy Forum, 2011. The Future Role of Natural Gas. A position paper by the European Gas Advocacy Forum. URL: http://www.gazpromexport.ru/content/file/egaf/Making_the_green_journey_work_- _web_version.pdf  Gas Infrastructure Europe, 2011. System Development Map. URL: http://www.gie.eu.com/download/maps/ENTSOG_SYSDEV_MAP2011.pdf  Gazprom 2011. Annual Report. Internet source. Date accessed: 28.03.2013. URL: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/60/660385/annual-report-2011-eng.pdf  Image “Consumption Projections MK”; “Final Consumption”; “Future Projections Total Gas Demand”; “Gas Demand 2040”; “Gas Consumption in EU”. Jovanovski and Kontradenko 2008  Image “Future Projections EU”. IEA, 2009.  Image “Macedonia and Gazprom”. URL: http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/macedonia-south-stream-pipeline  Image “Investments”. URL: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/85/290063/cdm40995_edit.jpg  IMF, 2011. Electricity Demand and Supply Image. URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1130.pdf  Indexmundi. Historical Data Graphs per Year. URL: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=mk&v=137  International Gas Union, 2008. Macedonia Natural Gas Situation Oct 2008. URL: http://www.igu.org/knowledge/members-information-about-natural-gas-markets/macedonia-natural-gas-situation- oct-2008.pdf/at_download/file  Jovanovski. Lj. and Kontradenko, Z. 2008. Gas Infrastructure in Republic of Macedonia. A presentation prepared for the 5th Gas Forum. Brdo Kranj – Slovenia.  Macedoniaonline. Macedonia Officially joins South Stream Gas pipeline. Internet article. Date Accessed: 24.03.2013. URL: http://macedoniaonline.eu/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=21361  Map “Present Gas supply in Macedonia”. URL: http://www.realfuture.org/wordpress/wp- content/uploads/2009/08/balkan_area_southeast_europe_pipelines_map.jpg  Macedonian Academy for Sciences and Art (MANU) 2009. Strategy for Energy Sector Development for the period 2008-2020, with a vision for 2030. Skopje: Governmental Publishing.  Map “South East Pipeline Route”. URL: http://www.gazprom.com/f/posts/44/270918/southern-corridor-2-en.jpg

Editor's Notes

  1. The Russia–Ukraine gas disputes refer to a number of disputes between Ukrainian oil and gas company NaftogazUkrainy and Russian gas supplier Gazprom over natural gas supplies, prices, and debts. These disputes have grown beyond simple business disputes into transnational political issues—involving political leaders from several countries—that threaten natural gas supplies in numerous European countries dependent on natural gas imports from Russian suppliers, which are transported through Ukraine. Russia provides approximately a quarter of the natural gas consumed in the European Union; approximately 80% of those exports travel through pipelines across Ukrainian soil prior to arriving in the EU
  2. RussianGazprom 50%Italian energy company Eni Paolo Scaroni 20%French EDF 15%German Wintershall 15%
  3. The Russian onshore section will run from the Pochinki compressor station to the Russkaya compressor station near Anapa.[31] The 925-kilometre (575 mi) long offshore section will run from the Russkaya compressor station through the Black Sea to Bulgaria's city of Varna.[2][32] Because of theRussia–Ukraine gas disputes, the pipeline is routed through Turkey's waters to avoid the exclusive economic zone of Ukraine.[15][33][30]The 1,455-kilometre (904 mi) long onshore section starts from Varna and runs to Pleven.[2][34] From there, the southwestern route, was to continue through Greece and Ionian Sea to southern Italy.[34] However, this route was abandoned.[30] The northwestern route will continue from Pleven to Serbia. In Serbia, it will run through Zaječar, Beograd and Subotica.[35] From Subotica pipeline will run through Hungary and Slovenia to Arnoldstein in Austria near the Italian border to supply northern Italy.[22][36][37][38] Two branches to Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are foreseen.[2] Srbijagas plans to construct along Sava river a 480-kilometre (300 mi) long branch pipeline with a capacity of 1.2 billion cubic metres (42 billion cubic feet) to BanjaLukaand Sarajevo.[39] It is possible that also Montenegro will be connected to the pipeline.
  4. Природниот гас би се обезбедувал со понатамошен развој на преносната мрежа од постојниот и од нови гасоводи и со развој на дистрибутивната мрежа. Постоечкиот капацитет на магистралниот гасовод Жидилово-Скопје неможе да ги задоволи потребите од природен гас во Македонија до 2020 година. Оттука неопходно е поврзување на Македонија кон нов гасовод. Со оглед дека потрошувачката на природниот гас во Македонија во 2020 година ќе учествува со висок процент (16%) во вкупната потрошувачка за сигурно снабдување со енергија, потребно е да се обезбеди разнообразност на снабдувањето со природен гас. Тоа најдобро ќе се обезбеди со приклучување на Македонија на планираниот регионален прстен кој ќе има можности за снабдување од поголем број различни извори.
  5. CCHP (combined cooling, heat and power)
  6. Gas is grappling itself a slow growing share in a very slow-growing energy world: annual growth of world gas demand is running at about 1.7%, from pre-2009 trend rates as high as 4% a year. For Europe however, after a 10.5% "big dip" cut in consumption through 2009-2011, and slow growth afterwards, the outlook is that European gas comsumption will grow at most 0.4% annual for several years ahead, possibly to 2017-2020. Source/ http://www.atkearney.com/documents/10192/70a85021-5426-488a-afea-d5d469ec4df3Some energy analysts go further and forecast complete zero growth for aeneslong as 5 - 10 years ahead. Factors driving this outlook include slow economic growth, fast growing renewable energy output and energy policies targeting a net reduction of national electricity consumption, sometimes by as much as 33%-50% by 2025 in several EU27 countries, including Germany.