This document summarizes a study examining the relationship between early childhood risk factors and third grade reading proficiency for students in the Cleveland Metropolitan School District. The study links data on children's demographic characteristics, family/neighborhood factors, early childhood services, and school experiences to kindergarten readiness scores and third grade reading test results. A hierarchical linear model is used to identify predictors of kindergarten literacy scores and a hierarchical generalized linear model examines influences on passing the third grade reading test. The results can inform local policies and practices around early literacy and the state's third grade reading proficiency policy.

1. PATHWAY TO EARLY LITERACY AND
READING PROFICIENCY:
USING BIG DATA TO
INFORM PRACTICE AND POLICY
Rober t L. Fischer, Ph.D. , Seok- Joo Kim, Ph.D. ,
& Claudia J . Coul ton, Ph.D.
Center on Urban Pover ty & Communi ty Development
Jack, Joseph and Mor ton Mandel School of Appl ied Social Sciences
Case Wes tern Reser ve Uni ver s i t y Cleveland, Ohio
3rd Annual OERC Conference
October 1, 2014
U s i n g D a t a t o I n f o rm P o l i c y , P r a c t i c e , a n d T e a c h e r S u c c e s s I C o l umb u s , O H I O c t o b e r 1 , 2 0 1 4

2. 2
BACKGROUND
Previous
studies
Policy
Social
Service
• Early exposure to stressful circumstances, environmental hazards, and less
than optimal early learning environments negatively and persistently affect
early development.
• Ohio State adopted “3rd Grade reading Guarantee” to ensure that students pass
reading proficiency test before advancing beyond 3rd grade (e.g., kindergarten
school readiness)
• Cleveland Metropolitan School District and Cuyahoga County can be more
aware of risk factors and services for students being held back as the policy is
implemented.

3. Aim 1. Assess the practical ity of l inking early chi ldhood and K-3
student records and potential usefulness of the resulting
information to local schools
2. Determine how chi ld, fami ly, neighborhood, mobi l ity, and
early chi ldhood services to influence kindergar ten
readiness.
3. Estimate the ef fects of early chi ldhood risk factors and
experiences on student progress over grades 1 to 3
4.Identify chi ld- level indices, including kindergar ten
readiness and reading-growth trajectories, that in their
combination accurately predict reading proficiency in
third grade.
3
PURPOSE

4. Ecological Longitudinal
Outcome2 Outcome1
4
CONCEPTUAL MODEL
Birth K 3rd
Kindergarten Readiness
Assessment-Literacy
(KRA-L) test
Ohio Achievement
Assessment (OAA)
reading proficiency
Study area: Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Child
• Demographic
• Birth weight
• Non-English
native
Services
• Home visiting
• Childcare
• Head Start
• Public preschool
• Universal Pre-K
Mobility
• Residential
Neighborhood
• Poverty rate
• Concentrated
disadvantage
Family
• TANF/SNAP/
Medicaid
• Teen mother
• Mother’s edu.
• Child abuse
• Foster care
School
• Attendance
• School mobility
• Report of
disability

5. 5
COHORT DESIGN
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cohort 1
(N=3,989)
Retrospective Prospective
B K 3rd
Cohort 2
(N=3,929)
B K 3rd
Cohort 3
(N=3,956)
B K 3rd
Cohort 4*
(N=3,606)
B K 3rd
Note. First enrollment of kindergarten in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, Ohio
*Cohort 4 was not included in the model of 3rd grade reading test.

6. 6
INTEGRATED DATA SYSTEM (IDS):
LOCAL
ID6
ChildHood
Integrated
ID5
ID4
ID3
ID2
ID1
• Abuse/neglect reports*
• Foster care*
• Home visiting*
• Special needs child care*
• Early childhood mental health
• Universal pre-k*
• Attendance*
• KRA-L*
• Proficiency test*
• Graduation test
• Disability*
• Medicaid*
• SNAP*
• TANF*
• Child care voucher*
• Infant mortality
• Elevated Blood Lead
• Teen births*
• Low weight birth*
Public
Assist
Public
School
Common
ID
Longitudinal Data
(CHILD) System
*: Data for this project

7. 7
INTEGRATED DATA SYSTEM (IDS):
LOCAL, STATE, & NEIGHBORHOOD
CHILD system
Educational Outcomes
• KRA-L score*
• 3rd grade reading proficiency*
• Attendance
Child Context
• Demographic
• Birth weight
• English as a second language
Family Context
• TANF/SNAP/Medicaid
• Mother’s education
• Teen mother
• Child maltreatment
• Foster care
Service Context
• Home visiting
• Head Start
• Preschool
• Universal Pre-K
Mobility
• Residential
EMIS
Educational Outcomes
• KRA-L score*
• 3rd grade reading proficiency*
• Attendance
School Context
• School characteristics
Mobility
• School
NEO CANDO
Neighborhood context
• Poverty rate
• Concentrated disadvantage
Data Integration
by State Student ID
Data Integration
By ECIID
Data Integration
By Census tract
*Outcome variables

8. MULTI-LEVEL ANALYSIS
Yij β0 + β1j∙Xqij = + rij
Individual -
level
Yij = log[λij] = β0 + β1j∙Xqij + rij
Yij : Probability of passing in 3rd grade reading test of the child i in census tract j
Xqij: Individual-level covariates, q=1,..,22
βqj : Coefficients of Xqij
rij: Between-level error, rij ~ N(0, σ2)
β0 =
Individual -
level
Neighborhood -
level
Yij : KRA-L score of the child i in census tract j
Xqij: Individual-level covariates, q=1,..,18
βqj : Coefficients of Xqij
rij: Between-level error, rij ~ N(0, σ2)
γ00 + γ01∙W1j + u0j
β0j: Between-level intercept
W1j: Poverty rates by Census tract
γ01: Coefficient of W1j
u0j: Within-level error, u0j ~ N(0, τ2)
Note: Multiple imputation (m=5) for missing information,
8
Mean-centering for continuous variables

9. 9
Table 4. Hierarchical Linear Model for KRA-L
Variables % / M(SD) β SE t p
Intercept: KRA-L Score (0-29)(i) 15.8(7.2) 14.195 0.200 71.08 0.000
Child characteristics
Age at kindergarten (in months; 40-125)(m) 65.7(4.3) 0.252 0.015 16.39 0.000
Gender (Female=1) 49.3% 1.524 0.117 13.03 0.000
Low-birth weight (Yes=1)(i) 12.2% -0.675 0.236 -2.86 0.009
Race: Reference (White and others; Yes=1) 19.4%
Hispanic (Yes=1) 11.8% -1.805 0.279 -6.48 0.000
African-American (Yes=1) 68.8% -0.224 0.179 -1.26 0.209
Non-native English at kindergarten (Yes=1) 7.7% -2.196 0.314 -6.99 0.000
Family characteristics: Birth to kindergarten
Born to teenage mother (Yes=1)(i) 16.4% 0.144 0.204 0.71 0.480
Born to mother with high school diploma (Yes=1)(i) 55.8% 1.180 0.146 8.06 0.000
Number of months living <150% FPL (months: 0-86)(m) 40.0(37.1) -0.024 0.003 -7.55 0.000
Substantiated/indicated child abuse (Yes=1) 13.3% -0.648 0.192 -3.38 0.001
Foster care placement (Yes=1) 5.4% 0.842 0.300 2.81 0.005
Home visiting services: Birth
Early intervention ever (Yes=1) 11.1% -2.890 0.211 -13.72 0.000
Ongoing home visiting over 12 times (Yes=1) 21.9% -0.310 0.152 -2.04 0.042
Newborn home visiting ever (Yes=1) 28.1% 0.878 0.143 6.16 0.000
Early childhood services: 36 months to kindergarten
Home-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 9.5% 0.181 0.199 0.91 0.364
Center-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 19.5% 1.563 0.151 10.35 0.000
Head Start over 6 months (Yes=1) 5.1% 1.233 0.268 4.60 0.000
CMSD Preschool over 120 days or UPK ever over 6 months (Yes=1) 19.9% 2.971 0.158 18.77 0.000
Mobility: Birth to kindergarten
Number of changing address (0-15)(i)(m) 2.6(2.4) -0.131 0.027 -4.80 0.000
Neighborhood (Census-tract) characteristics: Kindergarten
Poverty rates (ACS 2009; 0-94.9%)(m) 35.4(20.1) -0.019 0.005 -4.16 0.000
Note. Number of children=13,959; Number of Census tracts=410; (i) Multiple imputation (m=5), (m) grand-mean centering
Model fit: F(20,40277.2)=94.75, p=0.000; Total variance explained by 14.1%
Inter-Class Correlation (ICC): 4.0% (Null model), 1% (Current model),
KRA-L (Kindergarten Readiness-Literacy), FPL (Federal Poverty Line), CMSD (Cleveland Municipal School District),
UPK (Universal Pre-Kindergarten), ACS (American Community Survey 2009 5-year estimates)

10. Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH

11. Geographic locations of kindergartners (2007-2010)
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2010 (N=13,959)

12. Kindergarteners locations and KRA-L Band
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Band 1 ( 0-13): 5,364 (41.1%)
Band 2 (14-23): 5,322 (40.7%)
Band 3 (24-29): 2,380 (18.2%)
Missing:893
Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2010 (N=13,959)

13. Mean KRA-L scores by Census tract
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Yij=β0j+rij
Between-variance=50.0, p<0.05
Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2010 (N=13,959)

14. Mean KRA-L scores by Census tract and poverty rate by Census tract
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Yij=β0j+βqj∙Xqij+rij
β0j =γ00+γ01∙W1j+u0j
γ01=-0.019, p=0.000
Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2010 (N=13,959)

15. 15
Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model for 3
rd
grade reading test
Variables % / M(SD) β SE t p OR
Intercept: Passage of 3rd reading test (Yes=1)(i) 52.3% 0.542 0.209 2.59 0.010
Child characteristics
Age at 3rd grade (in months; 87-161)(m) 103.7(5.7) 0.012 0.005 2.39 0.017 1.012
Gender (Female=1) 49.4% 0.214 0.044 4.82 0.000 1.238
Low-birth weight (Yes=1)(i) 12.5% -0.194 0.073 -2.65 0.009 0.823
Race: Reference (White and others; Yes=1) 17.7%
Hispanic (Yes=1) 12.3% 0.000 0.101 0.00 0.998 1.000
African-American (Yes=1) 70.0% -0.510 0.069 -7.40 0.000 0.600
Non-native English at kindergarten (Yes=1) 8.7% -0.256 0.108 -2.38 0.018 0.774
Family characteristics: Birth to kindergarten
Born to teenage mother (Yes=1)(i) 16.3% -0.095 0.071 -1.35 0.177 0.909
Born to mother with high school diploma (Yes=1)(i) 56.0% 0.276 0.052 5.34 0.000 1.317
Number of months living <150% FPL (months: 0-126)(m) 66.5(36.7) -0.004 0.001 -5.50 0.000 0.996
Substantiated/indicated child abuse (Yes=1) 18.9% -0.117 0.061 -1.91 0.056 0.890
Foster care placement (Yes=1) 7.2% 0.182 0.096 1.90 0.058 1.199
Home visiting services: Birth
Early intervention ever (Yes=1) 11.7% -0.295 0.074 -4.00 0.000 0.744
Ongoing home visiting over 12 times (Yes=1) 22.4% 0.038 0.055 0.69 0.491 1.039
Newborn home visiting ever (Yes=1) 27.6% 0.178 0.056 3.16 0.002 1.195
Early childhood services: 36 months to kindergarten
Home-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 9.8% -0.015 0.073 -0.21 0.835 0.985
Center-based child care over 6 months (Yes=1) 17.8% 0.075 0.059 1.27 0.206 1.078
Head Start over 6 months (Yes=1) 6.2% 0.071 0.090 0.79 0.430 1.073
CMSD Preschool over 120 days or UPK ever over 6 months (Yes=1) 17.6% 0.230 0.060 3.81 0.000 1.258
School experiences: Kindergarten to 3rd grade
Kindergarten attendance rate over 89% (Yes=1) 67.6% 0.176 0.049 3.58 0.000 1.193
rd
Disability between kindergarten and 3
grade (Yes=1) 13.0% -1.003 0.064 -15.61 0.000 0.367
3rd grade enrollment at the same school (Yes=1) 31.3% 0.378 0.049 7.78 0.000 1.460
Mobility: Birth to 3rd grade
Number of changing address (0-15)(m) 4.0(3.2) -0.002 0.008 -0.24 0.811 0.998
Neighborhood (Census-tract) characteristics: 3rd grade
Poverty rates (ACS 2009; 0-94.9%)(m) 33.0(19.3) -0.003 0.002 -1.94 0.052 0.997
Note. Number of children=10,155; Number of Census tracts=412; Model fit: F(23, 14890.9)=28.65, p=0.000
Between-variance: 0.191 (Null model, p<0.05), 0.069 (Current model, p<0.05)

16. Geographic locations of kindergartners (2007-2009) at 3rd grade
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2009 (N=10,155)

17. Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2009 (N=10,155)
Geographic locations of 3rd grad reading test (Pass or fail)
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Fail: 4,629 (45.6%)
Pass: 5,081 (50.4%)
`Missing:445

18. Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2009 (N=10,155)
Passing rate of 3rd grade reading test by Census tract
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Yij=log[λij]=β0j+rij
Between-variance=0.19, p<0.05

19. Passing rate of 3rd grade reading test by Census tract and poverty rate by Census tract
in Cleveland Metropolitan School District, OH
Yij=log[λij]=β0j+βqj∙Xqij+rij
β0j =γ00+γ01∙W1j+u0j
exp(γ01)=exp(-0.003)=0.997, p=0.052
Source: 1. Cleveland Metropolitan School District (CMSD) data
2. American Community Survey 2009 (www.census.gov)
Note: Kindergartners in years of 2007-2009 (N=10,155)

20. K
Kindergarten Readiness
Assessment-Literacy
(KRA-L) test
20
CONCLUSION: FACTORS
(+) Girl
(+) Age
(--) Low-birth weight
(--) Hispanic (K)
(--) African-American (3rd)
(--) Non-English native
(--) Family’s economic difficulty
(+) Mother’s education
(--) Child abuse (K)
(+) Foster care (K)
(--) Early intervention
(--) Ongoing home visit (K)
(+) New home visit
(+) Center-based (K)
(+) Head Start (K)
(+) Public preschool or UPK
(--) Residential mobility (K)
(--) Poverty rate (K)
Family
(--) Chronic absenteeism (3rd)
(--) School mobility (3rd)
(--) Report of disability (3rd)
(K): Significant only for KRA-L,
(3rd): Significant only for 3rd grade treading test passage
Outcome1
Outcome2
3rd
Ohio Achievement
Assessment (OAA)
reading proficiency
Child
Early
childhood
education
Mobility
School
Home visiting
Neighborhood

21. 21
CONCLUSION:
EARLY CHILDHOOD SERVICES
 The newborn home visi t suppor ts
(1) the discovery of children who may show a developmental issues or
disability earlier
(2) the detection of child maltreatment,
(3) the arrangement of services for families in need,
(4) families choosing higher quality early childhood services
 The school system wi l l consider
(1) both children’s KRA -L score per se
(2) the risk predictors of KRA-L together in order to enhance the passing
rates of 3rd grade reading test.
 Bui lding a cohesive bridge between early chi ldhood services and
the publ ic school system
(1) stay within a continuity of child development and education
(2) be prepared for kindergarten
(3) improve the passage of 3rd grade reading test.

22. 22
CONCLUSION: USEFULNESS OF IDS
 Col laboration with Cleveland Metropol itan School District
(CMSD) and Early chi ldhood agencies
(1) Data Sharing
(2) Uses
- Building profiles
- Community collaborative planning
- Risk factor reduction
 Helpful to inform educational planning; especially schools
with large numbers of disadvantaged students
 Understand chal lenges for kindergar ten readiness

23. 23
LIMITATIONS & FUTURE STUDIES
Area Study Advantage Limitation
Method
Data
Analysis
Cohort
Design
• Tracking effectively
Integrated
Data
System
• Affluent information
• Reducing missing
• Costs benefits
Multi-level
analysis
• Separation of between
& within variances
• One school district
• Public school
• Selection bias

24. QUESTIONS?
ROBERT L. FISCHER, PH.D. (FISCHER@CASE.EDU)
SEOK-JOO KIM, PH.D. (SEOK- JOO.KIM@CASE.EDU)
Acknowledgement
1.Ohio’s Race to the Top project and Ohio Education Research Center
2.Center for Human Resource Research at the Ohio State University
3.Ms. Nina Lalich and Tsui Chan at Center on Urban Poverty and Community Development
connect@oerc.osu.edu |oerc.osu.edu