Talk to Digital Society Master's class June 10 Université Paris-Cité under their theme of "Towards digital sustainability: slow-tech and digital sufficiency". Fascinating course convened by Pierre NORO, Blockchain for Public Good lecturer.

1. Will ICT help
save the
world?
Exploring narratives of efficiency, sufficiency and
hope
Adrian Friday
Prof. Computing & Sustainability, Lancaster
University, UK.
a.friday@lancaster.ac.uk
@gulliblefish
http://wp.lancs.ac.uk/sds

2. Today
• Going to talk about
• The magnitude of the challenge
• Why technology is important in
addressing this
• Why dominant IoT narratives are wrong
• Could IoT really help save the planet?
• Things to consider in so doing

3. Human actions are deeply intervowen with the functions
of the biosphere

4. The Anthropocene

5. Steffen et al. 2015, The Anthropocene Review
The Great Acceleration

6. Not just
carbon,
multiple
impacts
Röckstrom et al., Planetary
boundaries. Nature 461. Ecology and
society. 14(2).

7. 1.8-2.8%
of global
greenhouse
gas emissions
Where are we?
1,087 1,107
1,306
887
1,860
3,634
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Malmodin (2020) Belkhir &
Elmeligi (2018) -
2020 minimum
Belkhir &
Elmeligi (2018) -
2020 maximum
Andrae & Edler
(2015) - 2020
Best case
Andrae & Edler
(2015) - 2020
Expected case
Andrae & Edler
(2015) - 2020
Worst case
Greenhouse
gas
emissions
in
MtCO2e User devices Data centres Networks TVs

8. More detail in
the full paper:
Freitag, C., Berners-Lee, M.,
Widdicks, K., Knowles, B., Blair,
G.S., and Friday, A. 2021. The
real climate and transformative
impact of ICT: A critique of
estimates, trends and
regulations. Patterns.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.
2021.100340

9. ICT emissions, assuming the 2020 level (adjusted for truncation error) remains stable until 2050, and
global CO2 emissions reduced in line with 1.5°C under scenario SSP2-19.
ICT’s future share of emissions?
40.93
32.28
23.63
17.58
11.52
7.65
3.78
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Carbon
emissions
in
GtCO2
Global CO2 emissions ICT's GHG emissions stable at 2020 level
3.2% 5.6% 11.5% 35.1%
4%
21%
42%
57%
72%
81%

10. Is more
technology
an answer?
“From a sustainability standpoint, the IoT may be
the most effective tool that we’ll have to manage
our changing climate. […] devices [will]
accumulate and share knowledge about the
environmental impacts and consequences of
certain human activities. […]” [Sara Gutterman,
The Rise of IoT, 2014]
“By 2030, ICT will provide benefits across the
triple bottom line, from reducing CO2e and
resource use, to generating additional revenues,
cost savings, as well as wider societal benefits”
[GeSi, 2030]

11. Suspiciously compelling
narratives…
• ICT is increasingly ‘green’
• ICT is getting more efficient faster than the
growth in demand
• ICT is bringing benefits to other sectors that
more than offset its own impacts

12. Yes, renewable
energy will
decarbonise ICT
No, renewable
energy is not a
silver bullet
Renewable energy will decarbonise ICT
• 0.1
kgCO2e/kWh
vs. 0.63kg
CO2e/kWh
(global
energy mix)
• 86%
reduction in
emissions

13. Yes, renewable
energy will
decarbonise ICT
No, renewable
energy is not a
silver bullet
Is renewable energy a sufficient solution?
• Availability
& share of
renewables
• Also
embodied
footprints
• Resources
(e.g. silver)

14. It should be more than ‘just’ energy
demand…
Scope 3: complex non-
circular supply chains
Resources, human rights, etc.
Scope 1: devices use energy
unsplash/ olena-sergienko-W2BI02QOncg/ lars-kienle-IlxX7xnbRF8/ dogherine-z1_z4hX9WhM/ arno-senoner-yqu6tJkSQ_k/ johannes-plenio-5_9inhy4NSE/ zhang-fengsheng-gUKv_yrQ_tk/ https://www.upsbatterycenter.com/blog/ev-makers-pushing-hard-for-ethical-cobalt/#prettyPhoto
Scope 2: how’s it
generated? When to use it?
v
s

15. It’s ok, because efficiency gain is outstripping
demand for ICT
Yes, energy efficiencies
in ICT can reduce ICT’s
carbon footprint
No, energy efficiencies
drive growth in ICT’s
carbon footprint due
to rebound effects
• PoE has
improved
• Data
centres
grown yet
remained
at ~1%
global
demand
[Masanet,
2020]

16. Yes, energy efficiencies
in ICT can reduce ICT’s
carbon footprint
No, energy efficiencies
drive growth in ICT’s
carbon footprint due
to rebound effects
But efficiency without sufficiency has a
problem…
• Demand
for more
devices
• Carbon
footprint
undeniably
growing
• Jevons
paradox!

17. The Rebound Effect / Jevon's Paradox

18. Growth curve
and sufficiency
Lannelongue L, Grealey J,
Bateman A, Inouye M (2021)
Ten simple rules to make your
computing more
environmentally sustainable.
PLoS Comput Biol 17(9):
e1009324.
https://doi.org/10.1371/jour
nal.pcbi.1009324

19. And not all technology is designed to scale
up…
Photo by @esptroy on Unsplash

20. Can’t we just
replace with more
efficient tech?
• 5G shifts more data / Joule than
4G
• But you need more smaller cells,
so more cell towers
• And 2G, 3G, 4G are all still there
• Efficient technologies take time
to replace older less efficient
ones (layering)

21. Also potential ‘societal rebounds’, e.g. will self-
driving cars let dogs take themselves to the vets?
Image: unsplash/ marieke koenders

22. BaU and Green
growth?
https://www.instituteforgover
nment.org.uk/explainers/net-
zero-target
• We might imagine 10%
would be a good efficiency
saving
• But year on year? – while
also growing output?
• Something has to change…

23. But ICT isn’t the problem…
Yes, ICT is enabling
carbon savings in
other industries
No, ICT drives
carbon emissions in
other industries due
to rebound effects
• ICT could
save 9.1
GtCO2e in
2020
through
efficiency
[GeSI 2015]
• ICT enabling
decarbonisat
-ion of
energy

24. Yes, ICT is enabling
carbon savings in
other industries
No, ICT drives
carbon emissions in
other industries due
to rebound effects
Is another ‘discourse of delay’… and
misdirection…
• Little
evidence
• Global
emissions
still
climbing
• ICT
enabled
rebound
effects

25. What do we
need to do?

26. 1. We can change the world
Technology rewrites the infrastructure we use
to achieve things, but it also changes our
expectations! (I’d argue too much economics,
not enough social theory in policy…)

27. 2. Technology can give us insight
http://www.ftc2050.com
We need a “control loop for the planet”
Prof. Andy Hopper, FRS
https://tinyurl.com/rsdtap

28. And help enact new policy
Bremer C., B. Knowles, and A. Friday. 2022.
Have We Taken On Too Much?: A Critical
Review of the Sustainable HCI Landscape.
(CHI '22).
https://doi.org/10.1145/3491102.3517609

29. 3. We need to see the bigger picture,
interconnectedness of systems and potential rebounds
• Not just the operational energy (burger), but also how it is cooked (energy), grown (supply chain),
and propagates changes to society (industrialisation of food, deforestation, obesity)
Photo by Food Photographer David Fedulov on Unsplash

30. 4. Recognise the co-benefits of system shifts,
and avoid inequality of access
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57149747

31. 5. Transforming
society, net gains
Graphic: ‪Jerker Lokrantz‬ /Azote

32. Summary
We’re facing a climate emergency, I’m sure you
know this!
Technology has a role in helping drive solutions,
coordination and understanding
If we go beyond Business as Usual, beyond
efficiency, genuine net gains avoiding rebounds!
Need co-benefits, socio-technical solutions,
new governance for digital sufficiency
http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/scc-sds/

33. Socio-Digital Sustainability Team
Kathy New
PhD Student
Dr Kelly Widdicks
Lecturer
Adam Tyler
PhD Student
Dr Oliver Bates
Senior Researcher
Dr Ally Gormally
Lecturer
Prof Adrian Friday
Professor
Dr Janine Morley
Researcher
http://www.lancaster.ac.uk/scc-sds/
Matt Marsden
PhD Student
Christina Bremer
PhD Student
Iman Hussain
PhD Student
Dr Christian Remy
Senior Researcher
Dr Carolynne Lord
Senior Researcher