The document provides an outline and overview of a presentation on analyzing hedge funds and systemic risk. The presentation covers basic facts about hedge funds, including their history and structure. It discusses hedge fund returns and risks, and examines hedge funds' role in systemic risk events like the financial crises in 1998 and 2007. Summary statistics on hedge fund performance are presented from major databases to give empirical facts on the hedge fund industry.
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...Chris Dane
This document discusses the rise of direct investors in the UK and opportunities in that market. It notes that while funds originally marketed directly to consumers, they have shifted focus to business-to-business relationships. However, direct investors now number over 6 million in the UK, representing a substantial demographic. They are still interested in advice and guidance. While some platforms have emerged, opportunities remain for other providers to better serve this sizable market, by understanding investor segments and targeting services accordingly.
1. The document analyzes Invesco (IVZ), a large asset management company. It details IVZ's business segments, competitors, financial performance, and management.
2. The author recommends selling IVZ shares. While the asset management industry is growing, IVZ has been underperforming peers and losing assets under management. Competitors also offer lower fee products that could draw more customers.
3. Key risks to IVZ include its reliance on fees which make it vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts, high concentration in one ETF, and competitors lowering prices. However, rising interest rates and the growing ETF industry may provide opportunities.
Monday February 4 2013 Top 10 Risk Compliance News EventsCompliance LLC
The document discusses the implementation of Basel III reforms regarding liquidity standards for banks. It describes the development of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) as a key idea to require banks to hold enough high-quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day period of stress. The Basel Committee refined the LCR over two years to better calibrate it based on empirical evidence. Revisions included expanding the definition of high-quality liquid assets and adjusting assumed cash inflow and outflow rates. The LCR will be phased in from 2015 to 2019 to allow banks time to meet the full standard.
The Need for Financial Stability in Zimbabwe: Use of Derivatives Securitiesiosrjce
Financial stability contributes to the stability and growth of a nation. There has been a sharp growth
in use or trading of derivatives in both mature and emerging markets. The Zimbabwean financial sector is still
not trading in derivatives security, yet Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is among the oldest and largest in Africa.The
trading of derivatives is done in two types of markets: organized exchanges and over the counter.Investors
generally use derivatives for three purposes: risk management, price discovery, and reduction of transaction
costs.Apart from generating cash in the adverse states of the world, derivative instruments also can smooth cash
flows through its interaction with the operating decisions. The study rallies behind the development of
derivatives market in Zimbabwe in the face of liquidity challenges currently facing the economy. The impact of
market risk on corporate activities should never be undermined and hence the corporate sector should be aided
in the elimination of market risk. The study is a policy prescription, which examines the importance of
derivatives and their suitability in Zimbabwe, to strengthen the financial sector. The study identified the
derivatives sector as the missing link to viable financial sector and hence economic growth.
FISCAL STIMULUS IN ECONOMIC UNIONS: WHAT ROLE FOR STATESNBER
1) State deficits can boost job growth in the deficit state but also in neighboring states, showing significant spillover effects. Coordinated fiscal policies across states are more cost-effective than individual state policies.
2) Federal aid to states, when coordinated, can effectively stimulate the overall economy. Targeted aid linked to services for lower income households is more effective than untargeted aid.
3) The economic stimulus of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act could have been 30% more effective if it relied more on targeted aid and less on untargeted aid. Coordinated fiscal policies that account for spillovers across economic regions are optimal for stimulus programs.
This document discusses p-values and hypothesis testing. It reminds the reader to find the p-value, which can be done using Table A or the Normalcdf function in a calculator. The p-value is used to test hypotheses and determine if results are statistically significant.
NEWCOMB-BENFORD’S LAW APPLICATIONS TO ELECTORAL PROCESSES, BIOINFORMATICS, AN...David Torres
Since this rather amazing fact was discovered in 1881 by the American astronomer
Newcomb (1881), many scientist have been searching about members of the outlaws
number family. Newcomb noticed that the pages of the logarithm books containing
numbers starting with 1 were much more worn than the other pages. After analyzing
several sets of naturally occurring data Newcomb went on to derive what later became
Benford’s law. As a tribute to the figure of Newcomb we call this phenomenon, the
Newcomb - Benford’s Law.
We start by establishing a connection between the Microarray and Stock Index
data sets. That can be seen as an extension of the work done by Hoyle David C.
(2002) and Ley (1996). Most of the analysis have been made using Classical and
Bayesian statistics. Here is explained differences between the different scopes on the
hypothesis testing between models Berger J.O. and Pericchi L. R. (2001). Finally,
the applications of this concepts to the different types of data including Microarray,
Stock Index and Electoral Process.
There are several results on constrained data, the most relevant is the Constrained
Newcomb Benford Law and most of the Bayesian Analysis covered, applied to this
problem.
The fall and rise of the direct investor - consensus at fs conference october...Chris Dane
This document discusses the rise of direct investors in the UK and opportunities in that market. It notes that while funds originally marketed directly to consumers, they have shifted focus to business-to-business relationships. However, direct investors now number over 6 million in the UK, representing a substantial demographic. They are still interested in advice and guidance. While some platforms have emerged, opportunities remain for other providers to better serve this sizable market, by understanding investor segments and targeting services accordingly.
1. The document analyzes Invesco (IVZ), a large asset management company. It details IVZ's business segments, competitors, financial performance, and management.
2. The author recommends selling IVZ shares. While the asset management industry is growing, IVZ has been underperforming peers and losing assets under management. Competitors also offer lower fee products that could draw more customers.
3. Key risks to IVZ include its reliance on fees which make it vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts, high concentration in one ETF, and competitors lowering prices. However, rising interest rates and the growing ETF industry may provide opportunities.
Monday February 4 2013 Top 10 Risk Compliance News EventsCompliance LLC
The document discusses the implementation of Basel III reforms regarding liquidity standards for banks. It describes the development of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) as a key idea to require banks to hold enough high-quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day period of stress. The Basel Committee refined the LCR over two years to better calibrate it based on empirical evidence. Revisions included expanding the definition of high-quality liquid assets and adjusting assumed cash inflow and outflow rates. The LCR will be phased in from 2015 to 2019 to allow banks time to meet the full standard.
The Need for Financial Stability in Zimbabwe: Use of Derivatives Securitiesiosrjce
Financial stability contributes to the stability and growth of a nation. There has been a sharp growth
in use or trading of derivatives in both mature and emerging markets. The Zimbabwean financial sector is still
not trading in derivatives security, yet Zimbabwe Stock Exchange is among the oldest and largest in Africa.The
trading of derivatives is done in two types of markets: organized exchanges and over the counter.Investors
generally use derivatives for three purposes: risk management, price discovery, and reduction of transaction
costs.Apart from generating cash in the adverse states of the world, derivative instruments also can smooth cash
flows through its interaction with the operating decisions. The study rallies behind the development of
derivatives market in Zimbabwe in the face of liquidity challenges currently facing the economy. The impact of
market risk on corporate activities should never be undermined and hence the corporate sector should be aided
in the elimination of market risk. The study is a policy prescription, which examines the importance of
derivatives and their suitability in Zimbabwe, to strengthen the financial sector. The study identified the
derivatives sector as the missing link to viable financial sector and hence economic growth.
FISCAL STIMULUS IN ECONOMIC UNIONS: WHAT ROLE FOR STATESNBER
1) State deficits can boost job growth in the deficit state but also in neighboring states, showing significant spillover effects. Coordinated fiscal policies across states are more cost-effective than individual state policies.
2) Federal aid to states, when coordinated, can effectively stimulate the overall economy. Targeted aid linked to services for lower income households is more effective than untargeted aid.
3) The economic stimulus of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act could have been 30% more effective if it relied more on targeted aid and less on untargeted aid. Coordinated fiscal policies that account for spillovers across economic regions are optimal for stimulus programs.
This document discusses p-values and hypothesis testing. It reminds the reader to find the p-value, which can be done using Table A or the Normalcdf function in a calculator. The p-value is used to test hypotheses and determine if results are statistically significant.
NEWCOMB-BENFORD’S LAW APPLICATIONS TO ELECTORAL PROCESSES, BIOINFORMATICS, AN...David Torres
Since this rather amazing fact was discovered in 1881 by the American astronomer
Newcomb (1881), many scientist have been searching about members of the outlaws
number family. Newcomb noticed that the pages of the logarithm books containing
numbers starting with 1 were much more worn than the other pages. After analyzing
several sets of naturally occurring data Newcomb went on to derive what later became
Benford’s law. As a tribute to the figure of Newcomb we call this phenomenon, the
Newcomb - Benford’s Law.
We start by establishing a connection between the Microarray and Stock Index
data sets. That can be seen as an extension of the work done by Hoyle David C.
(2002) and Ley (1996). Most of the analysis have been made using Classical and
Bayesian statistics. Here is explained differences between the different scopes on the
hypothesis testing between models Berger J.O. and Pericchi L. R. (2001). Finally,
the applications of this concepts to the different types of data including Microarray,
Stock Index and Electoral Process.
There are several results on constrained data, the most relevant is the Constrained
Newcomb Benford Law and most of the Bayesian Analysis covered, applied to this
problem.
This document identifies 10 trends shaping the investment management industry in a world of low interest rates, high volatility, and high correlations between asset classes. The key trends are the search for yield driving demand for credit and dividend-paying stocks; the debate around whether equities can still outperform with their high volatility; the growth of risk-minimizing multi-asset strategies; the shift to passive index funds and ETFs; and declining performance of hedge funds. Understanding how investor behavior is changing in response to these trends will be important for investment managers and can provide insights into future asset prices.
The document is an investment memorandum for the $100 million U.S. Real Estate Opportunity Fund focused on the western region. The Fund will acquire a portfolio of commercial real estate assets in major western cities, reposition them as a private REIT, and over 5 years either take the REIT public or sell the portfolio, targeting a 210% cash-on-cash return. Financial forecasts estimate acquiring $315 million in properties, growing the portfolio value to $458 million, for a 15.5% internal rate of return.
Indranil Deb presented at the Symbiosis Institute of Management Studies on November 11, 2008. The presentation covered several topics related to the global financial crisis including the growth of global financial assets from $12 trillion in 1980 to $118 trillion in 2003, the shift away from banks towards market institutions, and the impact of the US subprime crisis which began surfacing in 2007. Effects of the crisis included losses totaling over $512 billion, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and declines in global stock markets and currencies from late 2007 through 2008.
Vækstfonden is a Danish state investment fund that promotes growth and innovation in entrepreneurial firms and SMEs. It provides equity, loan capital, and guarantees to support growth loans, growth guarantees, and "get started" loans. Over time it has increased its direct and indirect investments in companies and guarantees provided. It aims to leverage its funds to attract greater private investment. Key lessons learned include the need for ambition and specialization to achieve solid long-term investment returns, selecting the right investment professionals, and using smart subsidies like loans rather than direct equity to support companies while maintaining good governance.
The document discusses potential places to save money, including under a bed, in a cookie jar, pillow, wallet, money belt, or small home safe. It asks if the reader would save money in any of these places, and to consider reasons why or why not, as well as other possible places to save money.
How have Market Challenges Affected Microfinance Investment Funds Dr Lendy Spires
The total assets of the 10 largest microfinance investment funds grew in 2011, reaching $4 billion, driven by increased demand from microfinance institutions for capital. While support from investors remained strong with the launch of new funds, fund returns were lower on average due to lower market interest rates and higher loan loss provisions. Microfinance investment funds are increasingly targeting underserved markets in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and rural areas with support from development finance institutions.
EFG Bank provides hedge fund services. The document discusses the history and evolution of hedge funds beginning with Alfred Jones creating the first modern hedge fund in 1949 which utilized leverage and short selling. It describes how the industry grew in the 1960s after an influential article. Today's major hedge fund strategies discussed include equity long/short, macro, and managed futures (CTA). Performance and characteristics of each strategy are summarized.
The S&P 500 has risen 12.6% since early October due to a lack of bad news. Three pieces of news that could be considered lacking in bad news are: 1) 75% of companies reporting earnings so far this quarter have beaten estimates. 2) Economic news has generally supported the idea that the economy is not collapsing. 3) European leaders may finally take action to address the sovereign debt crisis. Whether this lack of bad news continues remains uncertain.
03 An introduction to hedge funds Part 1Siri Venture
Conclusion of An Introduction to Hedge Funds from International Asset Management (‘IAM’) This research paper gives a broad introduction to the hedge fund industry, the
historical background to the evolution of hedge funds, the fund of funds industry and provides an explanation of some of the terminology used within this area.
Hedge funds have grown significantly over the last two decades and now have a substantial impact on global financial markets. While they are sometimes blamed for increased volatility and the 2008 financial crisis, studies have found no conclusive evidence of this. Some research even indicates that high-frequency trading by hedge funds can increase market liquidity and price discovery. Overall, the precise impact of hedge funds remains unclear due to lack of disclosure and the difficulty of empirical study, but most theories suggest they both positively and negatively influence today's financial system.
The document discusses the investment performance of the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust (LMVTX) mutual fund over a period of 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2006. It notes that LMVTX outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark during this time period. However, from 2006 to 2009 during the global economic recession, LMVTX underperformed the S&P 500. The document analyzes the performance of LMVTX using various metrics such as Sharpe ratio to determine if it provided high returns with relatively low risk compared to the S&P 500.
This document discusses various monthly commodity themes for June 2012. It provides an overview of the macroeconomic context, including concerns over Greece's debt sustainability sparking a flight to safe haven assets. It also discusses scenario analysis of commodity performance during periods of falling growth, drivers of gold prices and outlook, and using precious metals baskets to diversify portfolios. Specific commodities like platinum, palladium, and copper are also analyzed. Product structures for commodity exchange-traded products are explained.
The document provides an overview of Societe Generale's credit opinions and forecasts for 40 European high yield issuers. Key points:
- Stable credit opinions are assigned to 60% of issuers and 72% of bonds. Positive and Negative opinions account for 15% and 25% of issuers respectively.
- Leverage is forecast to improve on average, with 55-60% of issuers expected to see better credit metrics in FY2011.
- The majority of issuers are expected to maintain stable operating and financial fundamentals in 2012, barring external shocks, with refinancing and liquidity risks seen as low.
- However, macroeconomic uncertainty and the sovereign debt crisis
A mutual fund is a professionally managed investment fund that pools money from many investors to purchase stocks, bonds, and other securities. There are three main types of mutual funds: open-end funds that must purchase back shares daily at net asset value, closed-end funds that trade on an exchange, and unit investment trusts that have a fixed portfolio. Mutual funds provide advantages like diversification, liquidity, and professional management, but also have disadvantages like fees and less control over taxes. The first mutual funds were established in the 1700s in Europe and gained popularity in the US in the 1920s. Today, the largest mutual fund companies are Vanguard, Fidelity, and American Funds.
2.2. Balance Of Payment Capital Account To Finance Ca DeficitHai Vu
International Finance related issues.
The Capital Account of the balance of payments measures all international economic transactions of financial assets. It is divided into two components:
+ The Capital Account
+ The Financial Account.
Capital Accounts consist of:
- Direct Investment – in which the investor exerts some explicit degree of control over the assets.
- Portfolio Investment – in which the investor has no control over the assets nor any participation in the management.
- Other Investment – consists of various short-term and long-term trade credits, cross-border loans, currency deposits, bank deposits and other capital flows related to cross-border trade.
DSR - Debt Service Ratio:
The Debt Service Ratio - DSR is the percentage of a borrower's income that will be used to pay off a loan. It is one of the factors a lender will use to assess your application. Most lenders set the maximum DSR from 30% to 30%, which means that the loan repayments should not take up more than that part of your salary. This ensures that you will be able to pay off your loan comfortably, with little to no risk of defaulting or going bankrupt. The DSR may be calculated based on your monthly, weekly or fortnightly earnings.
This document summarizes a presentation given by Dr. Anthony De Francesco of Colonial First State on real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the Asia Pacific region. It provides an overview of the evolution and growth of REIT markets globally and within Asia over time. As of June 2006, Asian REITs accounted for 9% of the total $500 billion global REIT market capitalization and 22% of the 303 total REITs worldwide. The document outlines some of the key features and trends of REIT markets in countries like Australia, Japan, and Singapore.
In Which Way from Here?, Jeffrey Walkenhorst discusses the markets, the economy, and investing, plus investments in 1-800-Flowers.com, Seaspan, and Weight Watchers. The presentation was prepared and delivered to an institutional investor forum in New York City on January 21, 2010. Part One of Two Parts (17 minutes total).
Topics covered include: Weve Come Along Way, Old Adages Ring True, Economic Data Shows Stability, Easy Money Has Been Made, Yet, Plenty of Mixed Signals, Short-term Forecasting is Fools Game, New Normal Are You Sure?, and Our Old-Fashioned Strategy: Think and Invest Like an Owner, as well as opportunities in (1) Consumer Discretionary (Flowers/Gifts), (2) Container Ships, (3) Personal Services (Weight Loss Management).
Jeffrey is the author of COMMON STOCK $ENSE, an investment blog oriented to fundamental analysis and active portfolio management.
http://www.commonstocksense.blogspot.com
Business in the United States Who Owns it and How Much Tax They PayNBER
This document analyzes business ownership and tax payments in the United States using administrative tax data from 2011. It finds:
1. Pass-through business income, such as from partnerships and S-corporations, is highly concentrated.
2. The average federal income tax rate on pass-through business income is 19%.
3. 30% of income earned by partnerships cannot be uniquely traced to an identifiable, ultimate owner.
Redistribution through Minimum Wage Regulation: An Analysis of Program Linkag...NBER
This document analyzes the program linkages and budgetary spillovers of minimum wage regulation using data from recent federal minimum wage increases. It finds that wages increased for some low-skilled workers but employment declined significantly. While safety net programs provided some income replacement, earnings and tax revenues decreased substantially. Overall, the analysis suggests minimum wage increases reallocated income from employers and taxpayers to low-wage workers, with program and tax revenue spillovers of approximately $1-2 billion annually.
This document identifies 10 trends shaping the investment management industry in a world of low interest rates, high volatility, and high correlations between asset classes. The key trends are the search for yield driving demand for credit and dividend-paying stocks; the debate around whether equities can still outperform with their high volatility; the growth of risk-minimizing multi-asset strategies; the shift to passive index funds and ETFs; and declining performance of hedge funds. Understanding how investor behavior is changing in response to these trends will be important for investment managers and can provide insights into future asset prices.
The document is an investment memorandum for the $100 million U.S. Real Estate Opportunity Fund focused on the western region. The Fund will acquire a portfolio of commercial real estate assets in major western cities, reposition them as a private REIT, and over 5 years either take the REIT public or sell the portfolio, targeting a 210% cash-on-cash return. Financial forecasts estimate acquiring $315 million in properties, growing the portfolio value to $458 million, for a 15.5% internal rate of return.
Indranil Deb presented at the Symbiosis Institute of Management Studies on November 11, 2008. The presentation covered several topics related to the global financial crisis including the growth of global financial assets from $12 trillion in 1980 to $118 trillion in 2003, the shift away from banks towards market institutions, and the impact of the US subprime crisis which began surfacing in 2007. Effects of the crisis included losses totaling over $512 billion, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and declines in global stock markets and currencies from late 2007 through 2008.
Vækstfonden is a Danish state investment fund that promotes growth and innovation in entrepreneurial firms and SMEs. It provides equity, loan capital, and guarantees to support growth loans, growth guarantees, and "get started" loans. Over time it has increased its direct and indirect investments in companies and guarantees provided. It aims to leverage its funds to attract greater private investment. Key lessons learned include the need for ambition and specialization to achieve solid long-term investment returns, selecting the right investment professionals, and using smart subsidies like loans rather than direct equity to support companies while maintaining good governance.
The document discusses potential places to save money, including under a bed, in a cookie jar, pillow, wallet, money belt, or small home safe. It asks if the reader would save money in any of these places, and to consider reasons why or why not, as well as other possible places to save money.
How have Market Challenges Affected Microfinance Investment Funds Dr Lendy Spires
The total assets of the 10 largest microfinance investment funds grew in 2011, reaching $4 billion, driven by increased demand from microfinance institutions for capital. While support from investors remained strong with the launch of new funds, fund returns were lower on average due to lower market interest rates and higher loan loss provisions. Microfinance investment funds are increasingly targeting underserved markets in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and rural areas with support from development finance institutions.
EFG Bank provides hedge fund services. The document discusses the history and evolution of hedge funds beginning with Alfred Jones creating the first modern hedge fund in 1949 which utilized leverage and short selling. It describes how the industry grew in the 1960s after an influential article. Today's major hedge fund strategies discussed include equity long/short, macro, and managed futures (CTA). Performance and characteristics of each strategy are summarized.
The S&P 500 has risen 12.6% since early October due to a lack of bad news. Three pieces of news that could be considered lacking in bad news are: 1) 75% of companies reporting earnings so far this quarter have beaten estimates. 2) Economic news has generally supported the idea that the economy is not collapsing. 3) European leaders may finally take action to address the sovereign debt crisis. Whether this lack of bad news continues remains uncertain.
03 An introduction to hedge funds Part 1Siri Venture
Conclusion of An Introduction to Hedge Funds from International Asset Management (‘IAM’) This research paper gives a broad introduction to the hedge fund industry, the
historical background to the evolution of hedge funds, the fund of funds industry and provides an explanation of some of the terminology used within this area.
Hedge funds have grown significantly over the last two decades and now have a substantial impact on global financial markets. While they are sometimes blamed for increased volatility and the 2008 financial crisis, studies have found no conclusive evidence of this. Some research even indicates that high-frequency trading by hedge funds can increase market liquidity and price discovery. Overall, the precise impact of hedge funds remains unclear due to lack of disclosure and the difficulty of empirical study, but most theories suggest they both positively and negatively influence today's financial system.
The document discusses the investment performance of the Legg Mason Capital Management Value Trust (LMVTX) mutual fund over a period of 15 consecutive years from 1991 to 2006. It notes that LMVTX outperformed the S&P 500 benchmark during this time period. However, from 2006 to 2009 during the global economic recession, LMVTX underperformed the S&P 500. The document analyzes the performance of LMVTX using various metrics such as Sharpe ratio to determine if it provided high returns with relatively low risk compared to the S&P 500.
This document discusses various monthly commodity themes for June 2012. It provides an overview of the macroeconomic context, including concerns over Greece's debt sustainability sparking a flight to safe haven assets. It also discusses scenario analysis of commodity performance during periods of falling growth, drivers of gold prices and outlook, and using precious metals baskets to diversify portfolios. Specific commodities like platinum, palladium, and copper are also analyzed. Product structures for commodity exchange-traded products are explained.
The document provides an overview of Societe Generale's credit opinions and forecasts for 40 European high yield issuers. Key points:
- Stable credit opinions are assigned to 60% of issuers and 72% of bonds. Positive and Negative opinions account for 15% and 25% of issuers respectively.
- Leverage is forecast to improve on average, with 55-60% of issuers expected to see better credit metrics in FY2011.
- The majority of issuers are expected to maintain stable operating and financial fundamentals in 2012, barring external shocks, with refinancing and liquidity risks seen as low.
- However, macroeconomic uncertainty and the sovereign debt crisis
A mutual fund is a professionally managed investment fund that pools money from many investors to purchase stocks, bonds, and other securities. There are three main types of mutual funds: open-end funds that must purchase back shares daily at net asset value, closed-end funds that trade on an exchange, and unit investment trusts that have a fixed portfolio. Mutual funds provide advantages like diversification, liquidity, and professional management, but also have disadvantages like fees and less control over taxes. The first mutual funds were established in the 1700s in Europe and gained popularity in the US in the 1920s. Today, the largest mutual fund companies are Vanguard, Fidelity, and American Funds.
2.2. Balance Of Payment Capital Account To Finance Ca DeficitHai Vu
International Finance related issues.
The Capital Account of the balance of payments measures all international economic transactions of financial assets. It is divided into two components:
+ The Capital Account
+ The Financial Account.
Capital Accounts consist of:
- Direct Investment – in which the investor exerts some explicit degree of control over the assets.
- Portfolio Investment – in which the investor has no control over the assets nor any participation in the management.
- Other Investment – consists of various short-term and long-term trade credits, cross-border loans, currency deposits, bank deposits and other capital flows related to cross-border trade.
DSR - Debt Service Ratio:
The Debt Service Ratio - DSR is the percentage of a borrower's income that will be used to pay off a loan. It is one of the factors a lender will use to assess your application. Most lenders set the maximum DSR from 30% to 30%, which means that the loan repayments should not take up more than that part of your salary. This ensures that you will be able to pay off your loan comfortably, with little to no risk of defaulting or going bankrupt. The DSR may be calculated based on your monthly, weekly or fortnightly earnings.
This document summarizes a presentation given by Dr. Anthony De Francesco of Colonial First State on real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the Asia Pacific region. It provides an overview of the evolution and growth of REIT markets globally and within Asia over time. As of June 2006, Asian REITs accounted for 9% of the total $500 billion global REIT market capitalization and 22% of the 303 total REITs worldwide. The document outlines some of the key features and trends of REIT markets in countries like Australia, Japan, and Singapore.
In Which Way from Here?, Jeffrey Walkenhorst discusses the markets, the economy, and investing, plus investments in 1-800-Flowers.com, Seaspan, and Weight Watchers. The presentation was prepared and delivered to an institutional investor forum in New York City on January 21, 2010. Part One of Two Parts (17 minutes total).
Topics covered include: Weve Come Along Way, Old Adages Ring True, Economic Data Shows Stability, Easy Money Has Been Made, Yet, Plenty of Mixed Signals, Short-term Forecasting is Fools Game, New Normal Are You Sure?, and Our Old-Fashioned Strategy: Think and Invest Like an Owner, as well as opportunities in (1) Consumer Discretionary (Flowers/Gifts), (2) Container Ships, (3) Personal Services (Weight Loss Management).
Jeffrey is the author of COMMON STOCK $ENSE, an investment blog oriented to fundamental analysis and active portfolio management.
http://www.commonstocksense.blogspot.com
Business in the United States Who Owns it and How Much Tax They PayNBER
This document analyzes business ownership and tax payments in the United States using administrative tax data from 2011. It finds:
1. Pass-through business income, such as from partnerships and S-corporations, is highly concentrated.
2. The average federal income tax rate on pass-through business income is 19%.
3. 30% of income earned by partnerships cannot be uniquely traced to an identifiable, ultimate owner.
Redistribution through Minimum Wage Regulation: An Analysis of Program Linkag...NBER
This document analyzes the program linkages and budgetary spillovers of minimum wage regulation using data from recent federal minimum wage increases. It finds that wages increased for some low-skilled workers but employment declined significantly. While safety net programs provided some income replacement, earnings and tax revenues decreased substantially. Overall, the analysis suggests minimum wage increases reallocated income from employers and taxpayers to low-wage workers, with program and tax revenue spillovers of approximately $1-2 billion annually.
The Distributional Effects of U.S. Clean Energy Tax CreditsNBER
This document summarizes a study examining the distributional effects of US clean energy tax credits from 2006-2012. It finds that higher-income households claimed a disproportionate share of the $18 billion in credits. Specifically, the study analyzes tax return data to see who claimed credits for investments like home weatherization, solar panels, hybrid vehicles, and electric vehicles. It aims to provide insights into how the inequitable distribution may inform future program design and the debate around subsidies versus carbon taxes.
An Experimental Evaluation of Strategies to Increase Property Tax Compliance:...NBER
This document summarizes a study that tested different strategies for increasing property tax compliance in Philadelphia. The researchers worked with the city's Department of Revenue to randomly assign taxpayers with overdue property taxes to receive one of four letters: a standard letter, or a standard letter plus an additional sentence appealing to civic duty, public services benefits, or potential home loss. They found the civic duty appeal significantly increased tax payments, especially for those with lower debts. Appealing to public services benefits also showed some effect on higher debt taxpayers. The researchers conclude strategically targeting messages could further improve compliance.
This document discusses recommendation systems and topic modeling for documents using machine learning techniques. It begins by introducing recommendation systems and different types of recommendation literature, including item similarity, collaborative filtering, and hierarchical models. It then discusses bringing in user choice data and different collaborative filtering approaches like k-nearest neighbor prediction and matrix factorization. The document also covers topic modeling, including latent Dirichlet allocation, and how topic models can be combined with user choice models. It concludes by discussing challenges in causal inference when using machine learning.
The document discusses using machine learning methods to estimate heterogeneous causal effects. It proposes an approach of using regression trees on a transformed outcome variable to estimate individual treatment effects. However, this approach is critiqued as it can introduce noise. An improved approach is presented that uses the sample average treatment effect within each leaf as the estimator, and uses the variance of predictions for model fitting criteria and a matching estimator for out-of-sample evaluation. The approach separates the tasks of model selection and treatment effect estimation to enable valid statistical inference on estimated effects in subgroups.
This document discusses various machine learning techniques including:
1. Tree pruning involves first growing a large tree and then pruning branches that do not improve the objective function. This prevents early stopping.
2. Boosting uses multiple weak learners sequentially to get an additive model that approximates the regression function. It combines many simple models to create a powerful ensemble model.
3. Unsupervised learning techniques like principal component analysis and clustering are used to find patterns in data without an outcome variable. These include reducing dimensions and partitioning data into subgroups.
This document summarizes a discussion between Susan Athey and Guido Imbens on the relationship between machine learning and causal inference. It notes that while machine learning excels at prediction problems using large datasets, it has weaknesses when it comes to causal questions. Econometrics and statistics literature focuses more on formal theories of causality. The document proposes combining the strengths of both fields by developing machine learning methods that can estimate causal effects, accounting for issues like endogeneity and treatment effect heterogeneity. It outlines some open problems and directions for future research at the intersection of these fields.
This document summarizes key points from a lecture on diffusion, identification, and network formation. It discusses how diffusion of products can be modeled, including information passing between neighbors. Estimation techniques are described to model information diffusion on actual networks by simulating propagation over time. The challenges of identification when networks are endogenous are also covered. Forming models of network formation that account for link dependencies is an important area of current research.
This document provides an overview of social and economic networks. It discusses why networks are important to study, as interactions are shaped by relationships. Some examples of networks are presented, such as marriage networks, friendship networks in high schools, military alliances, and interbank payment networks. The document then discusses how to represent networks mathematically and introduces concepts like degree, paths, average path length, and degree distributions. It also covers homophily, or the tendency for similar people to connect, and shows examples of homophily along attributes. Finally, it introduces the idea of centrality and influence within a network, discussing measures like degree centrality and eigenvector centrality.
Daron Acemoglu presents a document on networks, games over networks, and peer effects. The document discusses how networks can be used to model externalities and peer effects. It presents a model of a game over networks where players' payoffs are determined by their own actions, the actions of their network neighbors, and potential strategic interactions. The best responses in this game are characterized. Under certain conditions, such as the game being a potential game, the game will have a unique Nash equilibrium where each player's action is determined by their position in the network. The document discusses applications of this type of network game model.
The document discusses how economic shocks propagate through networks of production and inputs. It begins by presenting a simple model of an economy consisting of sectors that use each other's outputs as inputs. Shocks to individual sectors can spread to other sectors through this production network. While diversification across many sectors could cause microeconomic shocks to "wash out", the structure of the network influences how shocks aggregate. Asymmetric networks with some sectors having outsized importance can lead to greater aggregate volatility than more regular networks where all sectors are equally important. Empirical analysis of input-output data supports the theory by finding significant downstream effects of sectoral shocks.
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - Joshua GansNBER
This document discusses publication lags in economics research, with working papers appearing years before peer-reviewed published work. It questions whether publication means anything given the large number of working papers now available. It also considers options for the National Bureau of Economic Research's web repository, such as providing open access to working papers along with links to related materials, peer reviews, and published versions of the papers.
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - Claudia GoldinNBER
This document analyzes trends in the NBER Working Paper series from 1978 to 2013. It finds that the number of working papers published annually has increased dramatically over time, from around 100 in the late 1970s to over 1,200 by 2013. The number of NBER research programs has also expanded significantly, from 7 originally to over 20 currently. Individual working papers now tend to involve more programs and more authors than in the past as well. The working paper series has become less specialized and more collaborative over four decades of growth and evolution.
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - James PoterbaNBER
This document summarizes the origin and evolution of the NBER Working Paper series from its beginning in 1972 to the present. It started as an outlet for NBER research and has grown tremendously over time. Some key points:
- The first working paper was published in June 1973 and there were only 3 papers in the first month.
- Growth accelerated after Martin Feldstein became NBER President in 1977, with over 200 papers published in 1981.
- There are now over 20,000 working papers published and about 5.5 million downloads per year from around the world.
- The most popular papers focus on topics like financial crises, economic growth, and corporate governance.
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - Scott SternNBER
The NBER Working Paper series recently reached 20,000 papers published and is recognized as one of the leading economics working paper series in the world. According to 2014 Google Scholar Metrics, the NBER Working Paper series ranked 18th out of thousands of journals by its H-5 index, which measures the productivity and impact of published work. The high ranking of the NBER Working Paper series demonstrates its important role in disseminating new economic research and ideas worldwide.
The NBER Working Paper Series at 20,000 - Glenn EllisonNBER
This document summarizes trends in the publication process and the role of working papers. It finds that publication times at economics journals have increased significantly over the past 30 years. Acceptance rates at top journals have also declined. These changes mean that published papers cannot address current issues or reflect the latest state of knowledge as quickly. The document also finds that working papers, such as those from the NBER, play an increasingly important role, as economists can disseminate their work more quickly through working paper series than through the traditional publication process. NBER working papers account for a large share of papers eventually published in top journals and those NBER papers go on to be well-cited.
- The document summarizes a lecture on using micro data with characteristics-based choice models. It discusses two key advantages of micro data: 1) It provides information on how observed individual characteristics interact with product characteristics. 2) It includes data on individuals who did not purchase products as well as second choices, giving insight into unobserved product characteristics.
- The model specifies utility as depending on observed and unobserved individual characteristics as well as product characteristics. Micro data on first choices matches individual characteristics to chosen products, while second choice data helps account for unobserved characteristics by holding individual conditions constant.