The document discusses using scenarios for system prototyping in strategic design and multi-disciplinary option evaluation. It describes how the Institute for Design Research at HBK Braunschweig develops user-oriented design through projects, research, and study programs. It also outlines challenges in modeling future systems and discusses approaches like using scenarios, trends analysis, and future-oriented user research to develop visions of alternative futures in 2050. Methods like morphological analysis and Delphi techniques are applied to generate scenarios across technical, social and political factors for holistic evaluation.

1. Option evaluation in multi-disciplinary Strategic Design:
Using scenarios for system prototyping
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021
Gerhard Glatzel, Maren Ohlhoff, Mehdi Mozuni,

2. HBK Braunschweig |Institute for Design Research
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021
The University of Fine Arts Braunschweig (HBK) is a public university in
Braunschweig, Lower Saxony. HBK was founded in 1963 and with
around 1200 students is the second largest university for fine arts in
Germany.
The Institute for Design Research (IDF) is a research unit within the HBK
that deals with the development of user-oriented design. It emerged
in 2019 from the "Institute for Transportation Design" founded at the
HBK in 2007. In teaching and research, our approach goes far
beyond the conception and design of products and artifacts. It is
oriented towards the design of change in the sense of future-
oriented services and systems.

3. Project E4A
Energy-4-Agri Transformation
processes in agriculture
Project SE2A
Scenarios for
ATS in alternative 2050
environments
Lightweight
structures made
from sustainable
materials
Professorship
Construction & Materials
Competence field
transdisciplinary
cooperation
Research
Micro-Mobility
Design and
Digital Cultures (BA)
Study Programmes
Transformation
Design (MA)
HBK Braunschweig | Institute for Design Research
IDF HBK Braunschweig | SE2A SCENAIR2050 | 24th WFSF Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021
3
Foresight
& transformation
Research
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

4. Future systems, scenarios and Human-System-Interaction
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

5. Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

6. Challenges of modeling a future system
■ Complexity
■ Uncertainty
■ Thinking ahead of trends
■ Technical decision-making
■ Trans-disciplinary
communication
■ User surveys
https://e-3.de/komplexitaet-reduzieren/
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

7. Future-Oriented User Research
■ Q1: Who are the future Users in 2050 whom innovative products
and services are engineered and designed for today?
(Can we even anticipate who they are or should we?)
■ Q2: Which User research and test tools can quantitatively and
qualitatively shed more light on the preferences of our users
from 2030 up to 2050?
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

8. CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR TOWARDS ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF FLYING
Inmarsat; Yonder; Simple Flying: Environmental Impact of
Air Travel Survey, zitiert nach de.statista.com, 2020 [online]
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1186489/attitude-
towards-environmental-impact-flying/ [09.08.2021]
Inmarsat; Yonder; Simple Flying: Environmental Impact of
Air Travel Survey, zitiert nach de.statista.com, 2020 [online]
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1186489/attitude-
towards-environmental-impact-flying/ [09.08.2021]
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

9. APPROACHES, PROCESSES AND TOOLS …
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

10. MORPHOLOGICAL DELPHI METHOD
10
Iterative
Collaborative
Innovative Holistic
To generate scenarios on the
foundation of consensus knowledge
that create possibilities of how vision
can become innovation

11. TREND
RESEARCH
DESIGN-
THINKING
FORESIGHT
RESEARCH
NORMATIVE
SCNEARIOS
USER
RESEARCH
What is needed and possible?
What are the preferred futures?
What are possible or even probable futures?
FIELDS of RESEARCH & SCENARIO-TYPES

12. SCENARIO-TECHNIQUE
average
case
worst
case
best
case
2020
Mid-term Long-term
Possible Scenario cases
2050
Results: Holistic evaluation and back-casting, deriving
recommendations for action and developing a transformation
roadmap
Elaboration of the scenarios, review and
further development using scenario
discussion labs
Identification of factors, Trend analysis,
STEEP/PESTLE+ analysis
Scenario preparation, determination of the scenario field
Generate scenario narratives / Visualizing
scenarios
Morphological analysis, generating raw
scenarios
Identifying key factors and projections
Testing scenarios with the user

13. SCENARIO GENERATION
16

14. MACRO-MESO-MICRO ANALYSIS OF STEEP+ INTERACTIONS
17
Politics
AIR TRAVEL
CUSTOMERS/
AGRICULTURIST
Economy
Social / cultural
Ecology
Technology
MACRO
MESO
MICRO

15. IDF HBK Braunschweig | SE2A SCENAIR2050 | 24th WFSF Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021
18

16. CUSTOMER –SIDE MICRO DRIVERS- 2050 OUTLOOK
Readiness to
pay Ticket
surcharges
KEY ASSUMPTIONS: NOISE AND EMMISION REDUCTION in E-CIVIL AVIATION REACED AS PLANNED
Eco
Class
Business
Class
Early Adapters Late Adapters
new service &
Amenity possibilities
inflight noise
reduction
Traveling speed /
DDD
Inflight user experience
ECONOMIC
MESO
FACTORS
surcharge in %
compared to
normal offer
Annual number
of tickets
needed
Own income
class
extreme weather cases
ECOLOGICAL MESO FACTORS
TECHNOLOGICAL
MESO
FACTORS
POLITICAL /LEGAL MESO FACTORS
presence of
low-cost
alternatives
Flight Mile/Seat
price
e-Flight emmision
reduction
e-Flight Saftey index
Competition
(other modes of
travel)
added value of
e-Aircrafts
SOCIOCULTURAL MESO FACTORS
No. of flight turbulences/cancelations
environmental
awareness
Penetration rate
of e-mobility
within EU
Peer pressure
(flight shaming) Family Patterns
Mobility (Travel)
Patterns
social milieu
(sinus milieus)
Subsidies Tax Policy
presence of low-
cost alternatives
E- AIR TRAFFIC OFFER
E- AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND

17. DEMOGRAPHIC
DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLICY
ENERGY AVAILABILITY
PRICE DEVELOPMENT
MOBILITY BEHAVIOR
AVIATION POLICY
AERONAUTICAL &
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT
DIGITALIZATION
SOCIOECONOMIC
STRUCTURE &
CHANGE IN VALUES
INFRASTRUCTURE
SOCIOECOMOMIC
EFFECTS
ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
AIR TRAFFIC OFFER
AVIATION MARKET
AIR TRAFFIC DEMAND
Aging societies in „the West“
Urbanization Worldwide
Large migration movements
Global Middle Class Growing
Global GDP doubles
GDP is main driver in air transport
controlled liberalization
Rising Efficiency & Costs
Higher amount of regenerative
energies
Innovative energy technologies
Lower energy consumption
Big Data Rising
Pre-Clearance
Ground Handling
Driverless Transport-systems
Big Data Air-cargo Supply Chain
Environmental & Safety
Do it yourself culture
Rising values on sustainability
High standard of safety & security
Tightly Controlled
Global Emissions Trading
System/Agreement on global
measure; Stronger emission limits
Higher taxes on fossil fuels
Massive Research Funding in EU
Tightly Controlled
Reorganization of Air charges
Higher Aviation Taxes
Noise-dependent airport charges
Strong Innovation
Optimized Aircraft Management
Regenerative Hydrogen/Organic
Kerosene…
Technology Research successful
l
Sustainability-oriented
Sharing Economy
Intermodal Mobility
Pay per Use
Fast Transformation
Surface Transport
Globally coordinated systems &
infrastructures
SAMPLE SCENARIO: PRIMACY OF POLITICS
• Decrease of Airlines
• Strong Demand & Air Transport
Supply
• Higher Specific Costs
• Medium Competition
• High Standards In Safety & Security
• Diffusion Of Post fossil Technologies
• Special Offers For Sustainable
Transportation
• Globally Optimized Systems &
Infrastructures
• Big Data Rising
• Capacity Regulated
Based on: Mozuni, M.; Thomas, D.; Wiehle, M.; Rammer, S.; Wolfgang, J.
(2019) Aviation 2030-2050: A Systemic Design Approach Towards Sustainable
Aviation Scenarios. In: S. Schönhals & J. Friedrichs (Hg.): Energy Transformation
in Aviation – Energiewende in der Luftfahrt - Final Report. Braunschweig: TU
Braunschweig – Niedersächsisches Forschungszentrum für Luftfahrt, pp. 27-40.
Institute for Design Research | HBK Braunschweig RSD10 Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021

18. https://www.fendt.com/de/xaver
Ref. @ Germán LeivaInteractive Prototyping of Interactions:
from Throwaway Prototypes to Takeaway Prototyping
Ref. @ Mozuni, Mehdi , HBK Braunschweig

19. 22
An alternative approach?
Future (user) Research
…

20. APS–SYNERGY – MODEL as a FUTURES-DESIGN-PROCESS
Research Through
Design w/ the
concept of futures
The Generic Design Process
APS uses design methods for
knowledge generation and
has the mindset of human-
centered design with
communication
Adding methods and
defined perceptions of
futures the research process
is comprehensible. It is also
useful for mid-/long-term
future problems.
PAST PRESENT FUTURE
Stefanie Ollenburg , (2017) Zukunftsforschung und Design – der Versuch einer Synergie für die Gestaltung von Zukünften

21. IDF HBK Braunschweig | SE2A SCENAIR2050 | 24th WFSF Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021
Research Through Design:
Narratives and visualizations are not only used to communicate and present
scenarios / future, but also to gain new knowledge and discuss goals.

22. XR USER EXPERIENCE
26
3D modeling - virtual reality
Basis: real operation
2D sketches / animations
- Transformation paths
- Machine concepts and
environment
Biomassekarte von einem Acker. // © Renke Dählmann/MyDataPlant

23. User research by
“Service Walkthrough”
(followed by common
UXR methods such as
Interviewing
Surveying
Focus groups
…
FUTURE
SYSTEM
USERS
Delphi
Survey
Social
Technological
Legal
values
lifestyles
Scenarios
Trend Case
Best Case
Worst Case
Visualizing selected
scenarios
Political
Technology Management
Derivation of
recommendations
Panel of
experts
Scenarios
depicted as
service prototypes
Revising Scenarios
Economic
Results: Holistic evaluation and back-casting, deriving
recommendations for action and developing a transformation
roadmap
Elaboration of the scenarios, review and
further development using scenario
discussion labs
Identification of factors, Trend analysis,
STEEP/PESTLE+ analysis
Scenario preparation, determination of the scenario field
Generate scenario narratives / Visualizing
scenarios
Morphological analysis, generating raw
scenarios
Identifying key factors and projections
Testing scenarios with the user

24. Can we consider Scenario Design as the means of communication with the user on one side and
with the technical decision makers on the other?

25. IDF HBK Braunschweig | SE2A SCENAIR2050 | 24th WFSF Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021
QUESTIONS, COMMENTS?

26. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gerhard Glatzel
email: g.glatzel@hbk-bs.de
Maren Ohlhoff
email: m.ohlhoff@hbk-bs.de
Dr. Mehdi Mozuni
mail: m.mozuni@hbk-bs.de
HBK Braunschweig
Institut für Designforschung
Johannes-Selenka-Platz 1
38118 Braunschweig
IDF HBK Braunschweig | SE2A SCENAIR2050 | 24th WFSF Conf.| 27 Oct. 2021
THANK YOU!