This document provides a critical analysis of the methodology used to calculate the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), and related measures. It focuses on three key areas: the valuation of non-renewable resource depletion, the valuation of long-term environmental damage, and the adjustment of consumption for income inequality. The document argues that the widely cited "threshold hypothesis" - which suggests economic growth stops improving welfare above a certain point - may be an artifact of questionable assumptions in how these three areas are measured, particularly the assumption of escalating replacement costs for resource depletion and the assumption of cumulative long-term environmental damage. Sensitivity analysis shows that without these assumptions, the threshold effect disappears
Rapport Browaldh Postdoctoral Fellowship Kelly de BruinKelly de Bruin
This document summarizes the work done by Kelly de Bruin over the past 6 years as a postdoctoral research fellow. Her research focuses on integrated assessment models, which are applied economic models describing the relationship between the economy and climate over the long run. She has published 4 papers in international journals investigating adaptation and mitigation policies. She is currently working on several ongoing papers examining topics like uncertainty, forests, economic growth impacts, and adaptation-mitigation interactions. Additionally, she has collaborated on policy projects with international organizations and published 12 policy papers, focusing on analyzing climate impacts and policies in Africa.
The document describes the challenges of working with climate model data, including large volumes of data, difficulties finding and accessing data from different models and grids, and the need for bias correction and quality control. It then introduces the Climate Data Factory as an innovative service that addresses these issues by re-mapping, bias adjusting, quality controlling and simplifying access to raw CMIP5 and CORDEX climate model data to make it easier to use for impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers.
Analyzing climate change risks and vulnerabilitiesNAP Events
The document discusses analyzing climate change risks and constructing climate scenarios for national adaptation plans (NAPs) in the Pacific region. It defines climate scenarios as representations of future climate based on climate modeling used to assess potential climate change impacts. The document outlines different types of climate scenarios, including those based on incremental changes, analogues, and climate models. It describes generating regional climate projections through dynamically and statistically downscaling global climate model data to finer scales. Examples are provided of accessing existing climate data and projections, and applying climate scenarios to assess potential impacts like changes in global banana production suitability under climate change.
This document summarizes challenges in accessing, preparing, and using climate model data for research. It notes that a large volume of climate model data is being produced but is difficult to access and use, particularly for non-climate scientists, as the data is on different grids, may need bias correction, and requires significant time and effort to prepare. Several papers are cited that found most researchers spend over 80% of their time preparing climate data rather than using it. The document discusses ongoing work to address these issues through initiatives like bias correction and the climate data factory project to help process and provide access to model outputs.
This document describes The Climate Data Factory, a service that aims to make climate projection data easier to access and use for non-climate scientists. It notes that preparing and working with raw climate model data is currently difficult and time-consuming for most users due to issues like different grids, bias, and data volume. The Climate Data Factory addresses these problems by providing re-gridded, bias-corrected, quality-controlled climate model projections that can be easily searched and accessed through their website. This is intended to help various audiences like impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers make more effective use of climate model data.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to address
numerous questions in ecology, biogeography, conservation biology and evolution.
Surprisingly, the crucial step of selecting the most relevant variables has
received little attention, despite its direct implications for model transferability
and uncertainty. Here, we aim to address this with a continent-wide, evaluation
of which climate predictors provided the most accurate SDMs for bird
distributions.
This document discusses generating a revised Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) solar radiation data for Armidale, Australia that considers cloudy days. It begins by explaining what TMY data is and how it is typically generated without considering cloudy days. It then defines clear and cloudy days based on cloud cover measurements. The methodology section describes using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method to generate the original TMY from 23 years of solar radiation data, without accounting for cloudy days. The document aims to generate a revised TMY that considers cloudy days and analyze the impacts on the expected solar radiation potential.
Rapport Browaldh Postdoctoral Fellowship Kelly de BruinKelly de Bruin
This document summarizes the work done by Kelly de Bruin over the past 6 years as a postdoctoral research fellow. Her research focuses on integrated assessment models, which are applied economic models describing the relationship between the economy and climate over the long run. She has published 4 papers in international journals investigating adaptation and mitigation policies. She is currently working on several ongoing papers examining topics like uncertainty, forests, economic growth impacts, and adaptation-mitigation interactions. Additionally, she has collaborated on policy projects with international organizations and published 12 policy papers, focusing on analyzing climate impacts and policies in Africa.
The document describes the challenges of working with climate model data, including large volumes of data, difficulties finding and accessing data from different models and grids, and the need for bias correction and quality control. It then introduces the Climate Data Factory as an innovative service that addresses these issues by re-mapping, bias adjusting, quality controlling and simplifying access to raw CMIP5 and CORDEX climate model data to make it easier to use for impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers.
Analyzing climate change risks and vulnerabilitiesNAP Events
The document discusses analyzing climate change risks and constructing climate scenarios for national adaptation plans (NAPs) in the Pacific region. It defines climate scenarios as representations of future climate based on climate modeling used to assess potential climate change impacts. The document outlines different types of climate scenarios, including those based on incremental changes, analogues, and climate models. It describes generating regional climate projections through dynamically and statistically downscaling global climate model data to finer scales. Examples are provided of accessing existing climate data and projections, and applying climate scenarios to assess potential impacts like changes in global banana production suitability under climate change.
This document summarizes challenges in accessing, preparing, and using climate model data for research. It notes that a large volume of climate model data is being produced but is difficult to access and use, particularly for non-climate scientists, as the data is on different grids, may need bias correction, and requires significant time and effort to prepare. Several papers are cited that found most researchers spend over 80% of their time preparing climate data rather than using it. The document discusses ongoing work to address these issues through initiatives like bias correction and the climate data factory project to help process and provide access to model outputs.
This document describes The Climate Data Factory, a service that aims to make climate projection data easier to access and use for non-climate scientists. It notes that preparing and working with raw climate model data is currently difficult and time-consuming for most users due to issues like different grids, bias, and data volume. The Climate Data Factory addresses these problems by providing re-gridded, bias-corrected, quality-controlled climate model projections that can be easily searched and accessed through their website. This is intended to help various audiences like impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers make more effective use of climate model data.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to address
numerous questions in ecology, biogeography, conservation biology and evolution.
Surprisingly, the crucial step of selecting the most relevant variables has
received little attention, despite its direct implications for model transferability
and uncertainty. Here, we aim to address this with a continent-wide, evaluation
of which climate predictors provided the most accurate SDMs for bird
distributions.
This document discusses generating a revised Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) solar radiation data for Armidale, Australia that considers cloudy days. It begins by explaining what TMY data is and how it is typically generated without considering cloudy days. It then defines clear and cloudy days based on cloud cover measurements. The methodology section describes using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method to generate the original TMY from 23 years of solar radiation data, without accounting for cloudy days. The document aims to generate a revised TMY that considers cloudy days and analyze the impacts on the expected solar radiation potential.
This document summarizes a study on the effect of changing vegetation coverage and temperature on the monsoon pattern in the Indian Sundarban region. Satellite imagery from 2005-2012 was analyzed using NDVI to detect changes in vegetation coverage over time. Temperature data from the same period showed an increasing trend. Analysis of rainfall data found decreasing trends in both the number of rainy days and average monsoon rainfall. Statistical analysis revealed that decreasing vegetation coverage correlates with decreasing monsoon rainfall and rainy days, while increasing temperatures correlate with decreasing rainfall and rainy days. The study concludes that declining vegetation and rising temperatures are negatively impacting the monsoon pattern in the region.
Researchers from the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London study published in the journal Global Biochemical Cycles. The study finds: "Recent rises in levels of methane in our atmosphere is being driven by biological sources, such as swamp gas, cow burps, or rice fields, rather than fossil fuel emissions."
This document summarizes key lessons from research presented in the journal Exploratory Agriculture on assessing and addressing climate-induced risk in sub-Saharan rain-fed agriculture. The research was conducted as part of an ASARECA project aimed at informing agricultural decisions related to climate variability and change in Eastern and Central Africa. Key lessons include:
1) Statistical analysis of historical climate data to describe events relevant to agriculture, like start of rainy season, does not need to be complex.
2) Accessing climate data, especially daily data, from national meteorological services can be difficult without research partnerships.
3) Farmers are aware of climate variability but may overestimate risks and fail to capitalize on good conditions
This document outlines the methodology for comparing landscapes in the CRP6 research project. It will use a Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) to compare 3-8 landscapes that show high variation. Two key research questions are identified: 1) Does variation in tree cover/quality affect outcomes like poverty and food security? 2) What explains spatial and temporal variation in tree cover? Integrated conceptual frameworks are discussed to combine biophysical and social data, including the DPSIR, press/pulse, and social metabolism approaches. Common factors across landscapes will be examined to understand relationships between rural livelihoods and environmental conditions related to tree cover change.
This document discusses generating optimistic, normal, and pessimistic estimates of global solar radiation in Armidale, New South Wales, Australia based on 23 years of daily radiation data. Typical meteorological year (TMY) data was previously generated for Armidale using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method to select the most representative month from each year. This study aims to provide upper and lower limits around the normal TMY values using the same method by selecting months with the highest and lowest radiation levels.
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: The Case of the Ikalahan Forest Car...Vherna Comagon
This document discusses climate change mitigation and adaptation through a potential forest carbon project in the Ikalahan Ancestral Domain in the Philippines. It outlines the case of developing payments for ecosystem services, specifically carbon sequestration and storage, through the Clean Development Mechanism. The Ikalahan people could develop a 900-hectare reforestation project to generate carbon credits, with support from RUPES and other organizations to help overcome challenges in project design, implementation, and long-term management. If successful, it would provide livelihood benefits to communities while conserving forests and their ecosystem services.
National Academy of Science - Restructuring US Climate Change researchSteve Wittrig
This document summarizes a report that proposes restructuring the US climate change research program to better develop knowledge and support decision making. It identifies six priorities: 1) reorganizing the program around integrated scientific and societal issues, 2) establishing a US climate observing system, 3) supporting new coupled Earth system models, 4) strengthening research on adaptation, mitigation and vulnerability, 5) initiating a new national assessment of climate risks and options, and 6) coordinating federal efforts to provide routine climate information and tools to decision makers. Implementing these priorities would require investment, leadership and support to improve understanding and satisfy growing demands for climate information.
This research article describes a new method called Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC) that reintroduces radiometric surface temperature into the Penman-Monteith equation for estimating surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. STIC derives analytical solutions for surface and atmospheric conductances, eliminating the need for external submodels. It was tested using high-temporal resolution data from four experimental sites, comparing estimates of latent and sensible heat fluxes to eddy covariance measurements. Results showed root mean square deviations between 7-16% for latent heat flux and 40-74% for sensible heat flux estimates compared to measurements.
The document discusses how climate change impacts policy and decision making by providing scientific information and data, outlines how the EPA facilitates interactions between climate science and policy through research programs and reports summarizing the state of knowledge on climate impacts, and describes how Met Éireann is moving from regional to global climate modeling as part of an international consortium to provide more accurate climate projections and information.
IPCC, role of IPCC, IPCC AR5, key messages. approach in climate change mitigation, trends of green house gases, mitigation pathways and measures, mitigation policies and institutions,
Impact of Climate Modes such as El Nino on Australian RainfallAlexander Pui
This document analyzes the impact of large-scale climate modes like ENSO, IOD, and SAM on daily and subdaily rainfall characteristics in east Australia. It finds that the occurrence of rainfall events, rather than average rainfall intensity, is most influenced by these climate modes. This is shown to be associated with changes in the time between wet spells. Furthermore, ENSO remains the leading driver of rainfall variability in east Australia, especially further inland during winter and spring. The results have implications for water resource management and how climate models capture rainfall variability.
This study compares growth estimates of the marine snail Tegula viridula obtained through two common methods: mark-recapture analysis and length-frequency analysis. Over two years, thousands of snails were collected, measured, tagged, and some recaptured to obtain direct growth data for mark-recapture analysis. Monthly length-frequency distributions were also analyzed indirectly. In the first year, the methods produced different growth parameter estimates, likely due to small sample sizes, but estimates were similar in the second year with larger samples. Combining the data produced even more similar results. A new combined methodology is proposed to better estimate growth from tag-recapture data.
This document summarizes a study that explores the impact of future climate change on forest and grassland fire risk in Australia. The study uses a regional climate model at high resolution, driven by data from a global climate model, to simulate climate conditions for present day as well as 2050 and 2100 under relatively high and low emissions scenarios. The results consistently show an increase in fire risk across Australia due to warming and reduced humidity. The probability of extreme fire risk is projected to increase by around 25% in 2050 and more substantially by 2100 under high emissions. This suggests climate change will likely require increased investment in fire management to maintain current levels of fire impacts.
Climate change is projected to impact drastically in southern African during the 21st century
under low mitigation futures (Niang et al., 2014). African temperatures are projected to rise
rapidly, in the subtropics at least at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase (James
and Washington, 2013; Engelbrecht et al., 2015). Moreover, the southern African region is
projected to become generally drier under enhanced anthropogenic forcing (Christensen et
al., 2007; Engelbrecht et al., 2009; James and Washington, 2013; Niang et al., 2014). These
changes in temperature and rainfall patterns will plausibly have a range of impacts in South
Africa, including impacts on energy demand (in terms of achieving human comfort within
buildings and factories), agriculture (e.g. reductions of yield in the maize crop under higher
temperatures and reduced soil moisture), livestock production (e.g. higher cattle mortality as
a result of oppressive temperatures) and water security (through reduced rainfall and
enhanced evapotranspiration) (Engelbrecht et al., 2015).
Contributors to the frequency of intense climate disasters in asia pacific co...Mario Robusti
The frequency of intense natural disasters increased notably from the 1970s to the 2000s. Around half of these events happen in Asia and Pacific Area. Intense hydrometeorological disasters and climatological disasters accounted for most of the worldwide increase in natural disasters.The Springer.com Open Access Science and Media website publish a new paper about disaster prevention and climate action. This pubblication is an indipendent evalutaion at the Asian Development Bank.
This document summarizes a large scale integrated modeling study from southern Germany that assessed global change impacts on groundwater and water supply. The study used an integrated modeling framework called DANUBIA that coupled 16 models to simulate regional actor responses to global change in the water domain. The models assessed how climate and socioeconomic changes could impact groundwater recharge, groundwater levels, agriculture, and human decisions around water use and supply. The modeling showed potential declines in groundwater levels and increases in human adaptation responses like expanded water resources or crisis management. The integrated modeling approach provided insights but also had challenges around data needs and computational demands.
The document summarizes research on improving land cover input data for urban canopy and land surface models. It discusses:
1) A sensitivity analysis comparing National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data products in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
2) A proposed method for incorporating high-resolution NAIP data to directly calculate areal fractions for the WRF Noah-mosaic land surface model, without needing urban fraction parameters.
3) Preliminary results showing NAIP input data produces up to 3°C cooler nighttime temperatures compared to default WRF values due to a reduced urban footprint from NAIP.
- The document analyzes 211 estimates of the social cost of carbon from 47 studies and uses kernel density estimation to model the probability distributions. It finds that estimates using lower discount rates imply higher social costs of carbon. Estimates from non-peer reviewed literature are also higher and more uncertain.
- There is a downward trend over time in estimated economic impacts of climate change. Estimates published before 1996 were larger than those from 1996-2001, which were larger than those after 2001. However, the differences may not be statistically significant.
- The estimates from the Stern Review are found to be outliers compared to other literature. The right tail of the overall distribution is fat, indicating a chance of much higher annual climate costs exceeding
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis cannot be accepted as a general
rule either for the Spanish case or for other developed or developing countries.
Economic growth alone, far from being the solution to environmental problems, is
causing an increase in resource use and pollution. The consequences of inaction can be dramatic. Solutions to curve this threatening path are available, but they need to be urgently implemented.
EMERGY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY AND INDICATORS
In emergy analysis various forms of energy can be expressed as coal, oil or another given fuel, and these can be compared and assessed (Finn, 1980) . This is, somewhat impossible as regards the materials, services or labour necessary for the energy production process. Yet, each of the input quantities required in the energy production process has its own energy value, which has been typically consumed in the production or in ensuring economic resources created by the production process, and this value should be taken into account in assessing the energy production process. While availing emergy calculations, therefore mentioned input values can be calculated in comparable unit, and with their help it is possible to determine the total emergy necessary for the production process.The production process uses two environmental resources: • R – renewable natural resources, which in turn are divided into two categories: - Renewable R1, which include solar energy, wind energy and rain; - Renewable R2, which are related to local ecosystem-provided resources such as renewable energy resources (biomass), as well as water and air in process-cooling equipment. Air is also availed in combustion processes. • N – non-renewable natural resources, including coal, gas, oil products or groundwater if used faster than its regeneration rate. Input F contains economy-ensured services related with the development and typical operation of the production process, services, technical equipment, remuneration, etc. Total Y emergy is attributed to the process end product (output) and is labeled Y. The production byproduct (pollutant) flow is labeled with W, and it penetrates the environment. Availing the examined flows, the following indicators are defined for each production process (company).
Assignment Of Measurable Costs And Benefits To Wildlife Conservation ProjectsApril Smith
This document discusses methods for assigning monetary values to the costs and benefits of wildlife conservation projects in order to evaluate them economically. It outlines different types of project costs, such as acquisition, management, transaction, damage, and opportunity costs. It also discusses challenges in valuing conservation benefits, as wildlife often lacks market values. Common evaluation methods include cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and regional economic modeling to estimate secondary economic impacts. The document aims to provide a framework for linking primary project costs and benefits to secondary economic effects to engage broader audiences in conservation.
This document summarizes a study on the effect of changing vegetation coverage and temperature on the monsoon pattern in the Indian Sundarban region. Satellite imagery from 2005-2012 was analyzed using NDVI to detect changes in vegetation coverage over time. Temperature data from the same period showed an increasing trend. Analysis of rainfall data found decreasing trends in both the number of rainy days and average monsoon rainfall. Statistical analysis revealed that decreasing vegetation coverage correlates with decreasing monsoon rainfall and rainy days, while increasing temperatures correlate with decreasing rainfall and rainy days. The study concludes that declining vegetation and rising temperatures are negatively impacting the monsoon pattern in the region.
Researchers from the Department of Earth Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London study published in the journal Global Biochemical Cycles. The study finds: "Recent rises in levels of methane in our atmosphere is being driven by biological sources, such as swamp gas, cow burps, or rice fields, rather than fossil fuel emissions."
This document summarizes key lessons from research presented in the journal Exploratory Agriculture on assessing and addressing climate-induced risk in sub-Saharan rain-fed agriculture. The research was conducted as part of an ASARECA project aimed at informing agricultural decisions related to climate variability and change in Eastern and Central Africa. Key lessons include:
1) Statistical analysis of historical climate data to describe events relevant to agriculture, like start of rainy season, does not need to be complex.
2) Accessing climate data, especially daily data, from national meteorological services can be difficult without research partnerships.
3) Farmers are aware of climate variability but may overestimate risks and fail to capitalize on good conditions
This document outlines the methodology for comparing landscapes in the CRP6 research project. It will use a Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) to compare 3-8 landscapes that show high variation. Two key research questions are identified: 1) Does variation in tree cover/quality affect outcomes like poverty and food security? 2) What explains spatial and temporal variation in tree cover? Integrated conceptual frameworks are discussed to combine biophysical and social data, including the DPSIR, press/pulse, and social metabolism approaches. Common factors across landscapes will be examined to understand relationships between rural livelihoods and environmental conditions related to tree cover change.
This document discusses generating optimistic, normal, and pessimistic estimates of global solar radiation in Armidale, New South Wales, Australia based on 23 years of daily radiation data. Typical meteorological year (TMY) data was previously generated for Armidale using the Finkelstein-Schafer statistical method to select the most representative month from each year. This study aims to provide upper and lower limits around the normal TMY values using the same method by selecting months with the highest and lowest radiation levels.
Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: The Case of the Ikalahan Forest Car...Vherna Comagon
This document discusses climate change mitigation and adaptation through a potential forest carbon project in the Ikalahan Ancestral Domain in the Philippines. It outlines the case of developing payments for ecosystem services, specifically carbon sequestration and storage, through the Clean Development Mechanism. The Ikalahan people could develop a 900-hectare reforestation project to generate carbon credits, with support from RUPES and other organizations to help overcome challenges in project design, implementation, and long-term management. If successful, it would provide livelihood benefits to communities while conserving forests and their ecosystem services.
National Academy of Science - Restructuring US Climate Change researchSteve Wittrig
This document summarizes a report that proposes restructuring the US climate change research program to better develop knowledge and support decision making. It identifies six priorities: 1) reorganizing the program around integrated scientific and societal issues, 2) establishing a US climate observing system, 3) supporting new coupled Earth system models, 4) strengthening research on adaptation, mitigation and vulnerability, 5) initiating a new national assessment of climate risks and options, and 6) coordinating federal efforts to provide routine climate information and tools to decision makers. Implementing these priorities would require investment, leadership and support to improve understanding and satisfy growing demands for climate information.
This research article describes a new method called Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC) that reintroduces radiometric surface temperature into the Penman-Monteith equation for estimating surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. STIC derives analytical solutions for surface and atmospheric conductances, eliminating the need for external submodels. It was tested using high-temporal resolution data from four experimental sites, comparing estimates of latent and sensible heat fluxes to eddy covariance measurements. Results showed root mean square deviations between 7-16% for latent heat flux and 40-74% for sensible heat flux estimates compared to measurements.
The document discusses how climate change impacts policy and decision making by providing scientific information and data, outlines how the EPA facilitates interactions between climate science and policy through research programs and reports summarizing the state of knowledge on climate impacts, and describes how Met Éireann is moving from regional to global climate modeling as part of an international consortium to provide more accurate climate projections and information.
IPCC, role of IPCC, IPCC AR5, key messages. approach in climate change mitigation, trends of green house gases, mitigation pathways and measures, mitigation policies and institutions,
Impact of Climate Modes such as El Nino on Australian RainfallAlexander Pui
This document analyzes the impact of large-scale climate modes like ENSO, IOD, and SAM on daily and subdaily rainfall characteristics in east Australia. It finds that the occurrence of rainfall events, rather than average rainfall intensity, is most influenced by these climate modes. This is shown to be associated with changes in the time between wet spells. Furthermore, ENSO remains the leading driver of rainfall variability in east Australia, especially further inland during winter and spring. The results have implications for water resource management and how climate models capture rainfall variability.
This study compares growth estimates of the marine snail Tegula viridula obtained through two common methods: mark-recapture analysis and length-frequency analysis. Over two years, thousands of snails were collected, measured, tagged, and some recaptured to obtain direct growth data for mark-recapture analysis. Monthly length-frequency distributions were also analyzed indirectly. In the first year, the methods produced different growth parameter estimates, likely due to small sample sizes, but estimates were similar in the second year with larger samples. Combining the data produced even more similar results. A new combined methodology is proposed to better estimate growth from tag-recapture data.
This document summarizes a study that explores the impact of future climate change on forest and grassland fire risk in Australia. The study uses a regional climate model at high resolution, driven by data from a global climate model, to simulate climate conditions for present day as well as 2050 and 2100 under relatively high and low emissions scenarios. The results consistently show an increase in fire risk across Australia due to warming and reduced humidity. The probability of extreme fire risk is projected to increase by around 25% in 2050 and more substantially by 2100 under high emissions. This suggests climate change will likely require increased investment in fire management to maintain current levels of fire impacts.
Climate change is projected to impact drastically in southern African during the 21st century
under low mitigation futures (Niang et al., 2014). African temperatures are projected to rise
rapidly, in the subtropics at least at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase (James
and Washington, 2013; Engelbrecht et al., 2015). Moreover, the southern African region is
projected to become generally drier under enhanced anthropogenic forcing (Christensen et
al., 2007; Engelbrecht et al., 2009; James and Washington, 2013; Niang et al., 2014). These
changes in temperature and rainfall patterns will plausibly have a range of impacts in South
Africa, including impacts on energy demand (in terms of achieving human comfort within
buildings and factories), agriculture (e.g. reductions of yield in the maize crop under higher
temperatures and reduced soil moisture), livestock production (e.g. higher cattle mortality as
a result of oppressive temperatures) and water security (through reduced rainfall and
enhanced evapotranspiration) (Engelbrecht et al., 2015).
Contributors to the frequency of intense climate disasters in asia pacific co...Mario Robusti
The frequency of intense natural disasters increased notably from the 1970s to the 2000s. Around half of these events happen in Asia and Pacific Area. Intense hydrometeorological disasters and climatological disasters accounted for most of the worldwide increase in natural disasters.The Springer.com Open Access Science and Media website publish a new paper about disaster prevention and climate action. This pubblication is an indipendent evalutaion at the Asian Development Bank.
This document summarizes a large scale integrated modeling study from southern Germany that assessed global change impacts on groundwater and water supply. The study used an integrated modeling framework called DANUBIA that coupled 16 models to simulate regional actor responses to global change in the water domain. The models assessed how climate and socioeconomic changes could impact groundwater recharge, groundwater levels, agriculture, and human decisions around water use and supply. The modeling showed potential declines in groundwater levels and increases in human adaptation responses like expanded water resources or crisis management. The integrated modeling approach provided insights but also had challenges around data needs and computational demands.
The document summarizes research on improving land cover input data for urban canopy and land surface models. It discusses:
1) A sensitivity analysis comparing National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) and National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data products in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model.
2) A proposed method for incorporating high-resolution NAIP data to directly calculate areal fractions for the WRF Noah-mosaic land surface model, without needing urban fraction parameters.
3) Preliminary results showing NAIP input data produces up to 3°C cooler nighttime temperatures compared to default WRF values due to a reduced urban footprint from NAIP.
- The document analyzes 211 estimates of the social cost of carbon from 47 studies and uses kernel density estimation to model the probability distributions. It finds that estimates using lower discount rates imply higher social costs of carbon. Estimates from non-peer reviewed literature are also higher and more uncertain.
- There is a downward trend over time in estimated economic impacts of climate change. Estimates published before 1996 were larger than those from 1996-2001, which were larger than those after 2001. However, the differences may not be statistically significant.
- The estimates from the Stern Review are found to be outliers compared to other literature. The right tail of the overall distribution is fat, indicating a chance of much higher annual climate costs exceeding
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis cannot be accepted as a general
rule either for the Spanish case or for other developed or developing countries.
Economic growth alone, far from being the solution to environmental problems, is
causing an increase in resource use and pollution. The consequences of inaction can be dramatic. Solutions to curve this threatening path are available, but they need to be urgently implemented.
EMERGY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY AND INDICATORS
In emergy analysis various forms of energy can be expressed as coal, oil or another given fuel, and these can be compared and assessed (Finn, 1980) . This is, somewhat impossible as regards the materials, services or labour necessary for the energy production process. Yet, each of the input quantities required in the energy production process has its own energy value, which has been typically consumed in the production or in ensuring economic resources created by the production process, and this value should be taken into account in assessing the energy production process. While availing emergy calculations, therefore mentioned input values can be calculated in comparable unit, and with their help it is possible to determine the total emergy necessary for the production process.The production process uses two environmental resources: • R – renewable natural resources, which in turn are divided into two categories: - Renewable R1, which include solar energy, wind energy and rain; - Renewable R2, which are related to local ecosystem-provided resources such as renewable energy resources (biomass), as well as water and air in process-cooling equipment. Air is also availed in combustion processes. • N – non-renewable natural resources, including coal, gas, oil products or groundwater if used faster than its regeneration rate. Input F contains economy-ensured services related with the development and typical operation of the production process, services, technical equipment, remuneration, etc. Total Y emergy is attributed to the process end product (output) and is labeled Y. The production byproduct (pollutant) flow is labeled with W, and it penetrates the environment. Availing the examined flows, the following indicators are defined for each production process (company).
Assignment Of Measurable Costs And Benefits To Wildlife Conservation ProjectsApril Smith
This document discusses methods for assigning monetary values to the costs and benefits of wildlife conservation projects in order to evaluate them economically. It outlines different types of project costs, such as acquisition, management, transaction, damage, and opportunity costs. It also discusses challenges in valuing conservation benefits, as wildlife often lacks market values. Common evaluation methods include cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and regional economic modeling to estimate secondary economic impacts. The document aims to provide a framework for linking primary project costs and benefits to secondary economic effects to engage broader audiences in conservation.
This document presents a simplified integrated assessment model for calculating the social cost of carbon (SCC). The SCC is defined based on welfare economics as the decrease in aggregate consumption that would change social welfare by the same amount as a one unit increase in carbon emissions in a given year. The model includes essential components to estimate the SCC at the global scale in a transparent manner. A Monte Carlo analysis is conducted to estimate the certainty-equivalent SCC and compare it to the expected SCC under uncertainty. Sensitivity analyses explore how SCC estimates vary with different assumptions. Comparisons are also made between SCC-based benefit calculations and exact compensating variation measures.
When not every response to climate change is a good one: Identifying principl...Rafael Martins
This review article discusses the concept of sustainable adaptation to climate change. It identifies four principles to guide responses to climate change: 1) recognize the context for vulnerability, including multiple stressors, 2) acknowledge that differing values and interests affect adaptation outcomes, 3) integrate local knowledge into adaptation responses, and 4) consider potential feedbacks between local and global processes. The principles argue that fundamental societal transformations are needed to achieve sustainable development and avoid maladaptive responses to climate change. Case studies from diverse contexts illustrate how attention to these principles can help achieve socially just and environmentally sound adaptation.
Research: Employment Booms and Busts Stemming from Nonrenewable Resource Extr...Marcellus Drilling News
This document presents a model for how employment in the non-renewable resource extraction industry changes as the resource is depleted over time. The model uses a "lake model" framework where the separation and attachment rates that determine flows between employment and unemployment in the industry vary based on the remaining resource stock. The model indicates that as the resource stock declines, employment levels can increase, decrease, or remain unchanged, depending on how the separation and attachment rates change. The document then applies this model to analyze historical employment patterns in U.S. coal extraction and to project potential future employment trends in the Marcellus Shale natural gas industry.
CIB Conference Paper 2013 - Life cycle energy analysis of residential buildin...Melissa Gaspari
CIB Conference Paper 2013 - Life cycle energy analysis of residential building retrofits incorporating social influences
This research incorporates these human and social aspects into a Life Cycle Energy Analysis to support decision making, and a means to align the most effective life cycle improvements to the social intentions of home owners. It is a preliminary paper in hope to begin to fill the gap in connecting social aspects with lifecycle decision-making.
Presentation at the SKB Stockholm Spring Talks 2011 \'Societal Approaches to ...jeanhuge
This document discusses the potential role of impact assessment in supporting sustainable energy policy decisions. It outlines key principles of sustainable development and sustainable energy. Impact assessment is presented as a process that can help operationalize sustainable development and address challenges to decision-making by generating information, facilitating deliberation, and helping structure complexity. The document also examines the characteristics of an ideal sustainability assessment approach for energy policy and assesses a case study on nuclear waste management in Belgium. It concludes that while impact assessment can help address some challenges, interpreting sustainability remains difficult, especially for issues like nuclear energy.
Environmental economics seeks to quantify environmental losses and determine efficient ways to reduce them. It compares the costs of environmental damage to the costs of mitigation. Environmental economics analyzes how changes in economic well-being today impact future generations' economic well-being. The environment provides resources for the economy and absorbs waste, so the environment and economy are interdependent. Environmental economics examines this relationship and how policies can reduce environmental degradation.
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The impacts of water conservation strategies on waterKuldeepVashist1
We assessed impacts on water use achieved by implementation of controlled experiments relating to four
water conservation strategies in four towns within the Ipswich watershed in Massachusetts.
This document is a thesis submitted by J. Andrew Alcorn to Victoria University of Wellington for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Architecture in 2010. The thesis aims to answer the question of how to build a sustainable house in New Zealand. It does this in three parts: 1) defining sustainability and establishing limits; 2) describing embodied energy and CO2 analysis methodologies; 3) applying these to a series of house designs. The thesis finds that a sustainable house is possible through strategies like solar/wind power, bio-based materials like strawbale and timber, and efficient appliances and materials.
Scenario workshop honduras zamorano irbio 24 may 2011 wv rMildred_Lagos
The document discusses land use scenario development for climate change adaptation and mitigation. It provides background on scenarios, describing them as plausible stories about how the future may unfold based on assumptions. Scenarios are not predictions or projections. The document then discusses different types of scenarios and their purposes from environmental and social science perspectives. It provides an example of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario process and outcomes. Finally, it discusses linking scenarios to models and participation.
Scenario workshop honduras zamorano irbio 24 may 2011 wv rMildred_Lagos
This document discusses land use scenario development for climate change adaptation and mitigation. It provides an overview of scenarios, including their purposes and types. Scenarios are plausible stories about how the future may unfold based on assumptions, and are not forecasts or predictions. They can address complex issues and uncertainties in an integrated manner. The document discusses examples of global assessments that use scenarios, including the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and OECD Environmental Outlook. It describes how scenarios can incorporate quantitative modeling and qualitative analysis at multiple scales from global to local.
This 3 sentence summary provides the high level information from the document:
The document analyzes the Stern Review report on climate change policy and discusses key points such as the economics of choosing a goal for global action on climate change, the social cost of carbon, and conclusions from the report. It examines evidence that the benefits of strong early action on climate change outweigh the economic costs of inaction, and suggests stabilization goals for atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases between 450-550ppm CO2 equivalent.
This report focuses on the Cost-Benefit Analysis which is effective tool and a rational technique for economic valuation where market information is either non-existent or deficient is.
Six star energy efficiency standard review of CBA - Rachel Ollivier-2Rachel Ollivier
This document summarizes a dissertation that critically reviewed the cost-benefit analysis conducted for a 2009 Australian policy proposal to increase energy efficiency standards for new residential buildings to a minimum of six stars. The author revised the inputs and methodology of the original analysis to reflect recent increases in energy prices and findings from recent literature. The revised analysis found the benefits of the policy would be much greater than originally estimated, with the net present value increasing to $4 billion compared to around break-even originally, due to higher energy prices and evidence that capital costs would not increase as assumed. The dissertation challenges the assumption that energy efficiency standards increase housing prices.
Similar to On the methodology of isew, gpi... (neumayer, 2000) (20)
Este documento describe cómo se forma el petróleo a través de la descomposición de organismos marinos bajo la superficie terrestre, y cómo el petróleo fluye hacia arriba a través de la corteza terrestre. También explica la gran dependencia del mundo actual del petróleo, que se utiliza en la industria, la agricultura, los transportes y una amplia variedad de productos de uso común.
El documento habla sobre la importancia de realizar consultas a la comunidad para medir el éxito de los procesos de gestión. Solicita al lector que analice su experiencia en el curso "Introducción a la sustentabilidad" en al menos 200 palabras y que argumente claramente su respuesta.
Este documento habla sobre la gestión ambiental de organizaciones. Explica que la gestión ambiental consiste en organizar las actividades humanas para lograr un balance entre la calidad del ambiente humano y natural. También describe los sistemas de gestión ambiental que usan las empresas, incluyendo la política ambiental, planes de desarrollo ambiental, educación ambiental, y normas de calidad como ISO 14000. El objetivo final es reducir el impacto negativo en el medio ambiente y usar los recursos de manera responsable.
Este documento trata sobre la gestión ambiental de organizaciones. Explica que la gestión ambiental consiste en organizar las actividades humanas para lograr un balance entre la calidad del ambiente humano y natural. También describe que la gestión ambiental ocurre tanto en el ámbito público como privado y a nivel nacional, provincial y municipal. Además, resalta algunas ventajas de implementar sistemas de gestión ambiental como la reducción del impacto negativo, el ahorro de recursos y costos.
La economía azul se refiere a la explotación sostenible de los recursos oceánicos como fuente de crecimiento económico, mejora de los medios de subsistencia y empleo a través de actividades como el transporte marítimo, la energía eólica marina, la acuicultura y el turismo costero.
La última lectura corresponde a un diagrama.
Actividad: Lea las partes del diagrama con atención, observando colores, flechas y conexiones. Luego, explique el diagrama con sus propias palabras en no más de 200 palabras.
El siguiente artículos de Wikipedia explica brevemente que es la Norma ISO 14000.
Actividad: Indique cuales son las etapas del proceso de gestión ambiental descrito en esta Norma.
Para calcular tu huella de carbono personal, visita www.footprintnetwork.org, selecciona "personal footprint" en "footprint basics" y completa la prueba, la cual estimará tu impacto ambiental basado en tu ubicación y estilo de vida.
Manual for calculating adjusted net savingsIntrosust
Lea hasta la página 7 (aunque se le recomienda leer el documento completo).
Actividad:
¿Por qué es el ahorro ajustado neto una mejora respecto a los cálculos estándar de ahorro neto?
Lea las primeras 15 páginas (aunque se recomienda leer el documento completo).
Actividad: Mencione los 3 países que le llaman más la atención respecto a su huella ecológica, e indique apróx. cómo se distribuye (en porcentaje) los componentes de ésta.
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Leyendo el texto completo, responda:
1) ¿Cuál es el problema que aborda la economía ecológica?
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Puede responder en inglés o español.
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Para la actividad sólo debes leer el capítulo 3 (pg. 63-84), aunque es recomendable que lea todo lo que pueda.
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Discover how MongoDB Atlas and vector search technology can revolutionize your application's search capabilities. This comprehensive presentation covers:
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GraphRAG for life science domain, where you retriever information from biomedical knowledge graphs using LLMs to increase the accuracy and performance of generated answers
In the rapidly evolving landscape of technologies, XML continues to play a vital role in structuring, storing, and transporting data across diverse systems. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) present new methodologies for enhancing XML development workflows, introducing efficiency, automation, and intelligent capabilities. This presentation will outline the scope and perspective of utilizing AI in XML development. The potential benefits and the possible pitfalls will be highlighted, providing a balanced view of the subject.
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During the hour, we’ll take you through:
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We’ll wrap up with a live Q&A session where you can engage with our experts on your specific use cases, and learn more about optimizing your data workflows with AI.
This webinar is ideal for professionals seeking to harness the power of AI within their data management systems while ensuring high levels of customization and security. Whether you're a novice or an expert, gain actionable insights and strategies to elevate your data processes. Join us to see how FME and AI can revolutionize how you work with data!
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5th Power Grid Model Meet-up
It is with great pleasure that we extend to you an invitation to the 5th Power Grid Model Meet-up, scheduled for 6th June 2024. This event will adopt a hybrid format, allowing participants to join us either through an online Mircosoft Teams session or in person at TU/e located at Den Dolech 2, Eindhoven, Netherlands. The meet-up will be hosted by Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e), a research university specializing in engineering science & technology.
Power Grid Model
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Power Grid Model is currently being applied in a wide variety of use cases, including grid planning, expansion, reliability, and congestion studies. It can also help in analyzing the impact of renewable energy integration, assessing the effects of disturbances or faults, and developing strategies for grid control and optimization.
What to expect
For the upcoming meetup we are organizing, we have an exciting lineup of activities planned:
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HCL Notes and Domino License Cost Reduction in the World of DLAUpanagenda
Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/hcl-notes-and-domino-license-cost-reduction-in-the-world-of-dlau/
The introduction of DLAU and the CCB & CCX licensing model caused quite a stir in the HCL community. As a Notes and Domino customer, you may have faced challenges with unexpected user counts and license costs. You probably have questions on how this new licensing approach works and how to benefit from it. Most importantly, you likely have budget constraints and want to save money where possible. Don’t worry, we can help with all of this!
We’ll show you how to fix common misconfigurations that cause higher-than-expected user counts, and how to identify accounts which you can deactivate to save money. There are also frequent patterns that can cause unnecessary cost, like using a person document instead of a mail-in for shared mailboxes. We’ll provide examples and solutions for those as well. And naturally we’ll explain the new licensing model.
Join HCL Ambassador Marc Thomas in this webinar with a special guest appearance from Franz Walder. It will give you the tools and know-how to stay on top of what is going on with Domino licensing. You will be able lower your cost through an optimized configuration and keep it low going forward.
These topics will be covered
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2. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361348
(Jackson and Stymne, 1996) and the UK (Jackson
et al., 1997). Sometimes these studies come, with
only slightly changed methodology, under the
name of Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), as, for
example, in Australia (Hamilton, 1999) and the
US (Redefining Progress, 1999). For Australia,
there also exists a related measure, which comes
under the name of sustainable net benefit index
(SNBI) (Lawn and Sanders, 1999).
Computation of an ISEW/GPI usually starts
from personal consumption expenditures. These
expenditures are weighted with an index of in-
come inequality. Then, certain welfare-relevant
contributions are added, such as the services of
household labour and the services of streets and
highways, whereas certain welfare-relevant losses
are subtracted, such as so-called ‘defensive expen-
ditures’, costs of environmental pollution, costs of
depletion of non-renewable resources and long-
term environmental damage costs. The resulting
index is regarded as a more accurate indicator of
sustainable economic welfare than a country’s
gross national product (GNP), which, according
to proponents of ISEW/GPI, even if not origi-
nally invented for such a purpose, is used by
policy makers and in everyday language as a
yardstick for economic welfare.1
The methodology used for ISEW/GPI studies
has been criticised by some authors, including the
present one (see Nordhaus, 1992; the contribu-
tions in Cobb and Cobb, 1994; Atkinson, 1995;
Neumayer, 1999a,b). However, whereas Neu-
mayer (1999b), for example, provides a general
conceptual critique, this paper’s objective is more
confined and more concrete. It aspires to put
forward some constructive suggestions on the
methodology used for ISEW, GPI and related
measures, and to shed some doubt on the so-
called ‘threshold hypothesis’. More specifically, it
focuses on three items: the valuation of the deple-
tion of non-renewable resources (Section 2), the
valuation of long-term environmental damage
(Section 3) and the adjustment of consumption
expenditures for income inequality (Section 4).
These items exert a significant influence on most
ISEW/GPI and related measures.
In evaluating the results of their work, propo-
nents of ISEW/GPI have put great emphasis on a
clearly discernible trend of the ISEW/GPI in al-
most all studies undertaken so far: starting from
around the 1970s or early 1980s, depending on the
country, the ISEW/GPI no longer rises very much
or even falls, whereas GNP continues to rise. As
an explanation for this widening gap between
ISEW/GPI and GNP, Max-Neef (1995, p. 117)
has put forward the so-called ‘threshold hypothe-
sis’: ‘for every society there seems to be a period
in which economic growth (as conventionally
measured) brings about an improvement in the
quality of life, but only up to a point — the
threshold point — beyond which, if there is more
economic growth, quality of life may begin to
deteriorate’. This ‘threshold hypothesis’ is referred
to in almost every recent ISEW/GPI study and
Max-Neef (1995, p. 117) himself regarded the
evidence from these studies ‘a fine illustration of
the Threshold Hypothesis’. Anielski (1999, p. 3)
suggests that the hypothesis confirms ‘what many
Americans and Canadians feel and are experienc-
ing — the economy and stock exchanges may be
soaring but average citizens sense the steady ero-
sion of their economic quality of life’.
This paper argues that proponents of ISEW/
GPI consider their results too easily as evidence
for the ‘threshold hypothesis’. It suggests that, as
far as depletion of non-renewable resources and
long-term environmental damage contribute to
the widening gap between ISEW/GPI and GNP,
this gap might be the artefact of highly con-
testable methodological assumptions. Sensitivity
analysis is employed to demonstrate that these
items no longer give rise to a threshold if the
assumption of a cost escalation factor in the
valuation of non-renewable resource depletion
and the assumption of cumulative long-term envi-
ronmental damage is abandoned.
1
Some studies refer to gross domestic product (GDP) in-
stead of GNP. The difference between GNP and GDP is that
GDP includes output produced by foreigners within the na-
tional boundaries and excludes output produced by nationals
abroad. As the difference between GNP and GDP does not
matter here, the following paragraphs usually only refer to
GNP, except when a study explicitly refers to GDP.
3. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361 349
2. Depletion of non-renewable resources
As concerns the depletion of natural resources,
the method used by various studies differs on
three major aspects: first, either replacement costs
or resource rents are used to compute the deduc-
tion item; second, either national consumption or
national extraction is the reference for valuation;
and, third, if the resource rent method is used,
then either total resource rents are deducted or
the so-called El Serafy method is used for calcu-
lating resource user costs, which are then de-
ducted.
2.1. Replacement costs or resource rents?
Let us start with the first and most fundamental
difference. The ambiguity between either using the
resource rent method or the replacement cost
method stems back to the original US ISEW.
Whereas Daly et al., (1989) and Cobb and Cobb
(1994) in their original ISEW computations de-
ducted the total value of mine extraction, the
revised ISEW in Cobb and Cobb (1994) switched
to the replacement cost method: for non-renew-
able energy extraction each barrel of oil equiva-
lent was valued at a replacement cost which was
assumed to escalate by 3% per annum between
1950 and 1990 and was anchored around an
assumed cost of $75 in 1988. The Austrian, Ger-
man and Italian ISEW followed Daly et al.,
(1989) in deducting the total value of mine pro-
duction. The Australian SNBI study also applied
the resource rent method, but computed user
costs according to the El Serafy method. The
Chilean, Dutch, Scottish, Swedish and UK ISEW
and the Australian and US GPI, on the other
hand, followed the replacement cost method of
the revised ISEW in Cobb and Cobb (1994) to-
gether with the 3% escalation factor.
There is a clear rationale for using the resource
rent method: because non-renewable resources are
irreversibly lost in the process of use, non-renew-
able resource extraction represents the (partial)
liquidation of an existing capital stock. Rental
income that accrues from resource extraction is,
therefore non-sustainable into the future and
should either fully (total resource rents) or partly
(user costs according to El Serafy method) be
deducted. The resource rent method is inspired by
the idea of sustainable income and aims to sepa-
rate the sustainable from the non-sustainable in-
come parts. The rationale for using the
replacement cost method, on the other hand, is
completely different. It stems from the idea that
non-renewable resource use, which cannot be pro-
longed forever and is therefore, not sustainable
into the indefinite future, would have to be re-
placed by renewable resources.
The replacement cost method suffers from two
major problems, however: first, the underlying
assumption is that non-renewable resource use
has to be fully replaced by renewable resources in
the present; second, the escalation factor assumes
that replacement costs increase over time. As con-
cerns the first problem, there is no convincing
rationale for why non-renewable resources would
have to be fully replaced by renewable resources
in the present when there are still available re-
serves that would last for many decades. For
example, the static reserves to extraction ratio,
which gives the time of how long proven reserves
would last at current extraction levels, was 41
years for oil, 63 years for natural gas and 218
years for coal at the end of 1998 (British
Petroleum, 1999).2
If non-renewable resources are
cheaper than renewable resources, as Cobb and
Cobb (1994) assume and is certainly correct for
energy resources, then a rational resource extrac-
tor would be foolish not to use up the remaining
non-renewable resources first, before switching to
renewable resources later on. For the same rea-
son, it seems odd to deduct replacement costs for
the totality of resource use in the present year.
The relatively high replacement cost of 75 US$ in
1988, which has been taken over by other studies
as well, only makes sense if total current non-re-
newable resource use would need to be replaced
2
On the one hand, the static reserves to extraction ratio
overestimates available resource reserves as extraction is likely
to increase in the future. On the other hand, it underestimates
available resource reserves as new reserves become available.
For example, while oil extraction has increased from 58 mil-
lion barrels per day in 1973 to about 72 million barrels per day
in 1998, proven oil reserves have not only failed to decrease,
but have even increased from 630 thousand million barrels to
1050 thousand million barrels (British Petroleum, 1999).
4. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361350
with renewable resources in the present. Again,
this bears the question why a rational resource
extractor should switch to extremely expensive
renewable replacement resources, when much
cheaper non-renewable resources are still avail-
able. Why not wait with switching until some
point in the future, when switching becomes nec-
essary and is likely to be much cheaper as the
technology for the extraction and use of renew-
able resources will have improved?
Related to this last point is the second problem,
the 3% escalation factor, which has also rather
uncritically been taken over by other studies. As a
rationale for this assumption of constantly in-
creasing replacement costs, Cobb and Cobb
(1994, p. 267) refer to the costs per foot of oil
drilling which they report to have increased by
about 6% per annum during the period of high oil
prices in the 1970s, which triggered the explo-
ration and drilling of more difficult to exploit oil
fields. They reason that ‘when the limits of a
resource are being reached, the cost of extracting
the next unit is more costly than the previous unit’
and that ‘this principle presumably applies also to
renewable fuels, though not as dramatically as to
oil and gas’, which is why the escalation factor is
assumed to be 3 instead of 6%. Especially with
respect to renewable energy resources, such rea-
soning might be erroneous, however. The most
likely candidate for replacing non-renewable fuels
is renewable solar energy. But the solar energy
influx exceeds current world energy demand by at
least one order of magnitude (Norgaard, 1986), so
that the limits of this resource are unlikely to be
reached. Also, costs for solar energy use are cur-
rently high because the technology is still in the
early stages of development, but costs will fall
over time as technology improves (Lenssen and
Flavin, 1996). Instead of assuming replacement
costs to escalate by 3% per year, it might therefore
be more appropriate to assume that replacement
costs are falling over time.
The replacement cost method with the 3% esca-
lation factor contributes to the ‘threshold hypoth-
esis’. The method computes the deduction term as
RC(t)=R(t)· 75 $ ·1.03(t−1988)
where R is resource use and t is the year of
computation. This deduction term will rise over
time if R does not fall by more than 3% per
annum. What is more, the deduction term will rise
at a rate faster than GNP if the growth rate of
GNP is smaller than 3% plus the growth rate of
resource use:
RC
·
RC
GNP
·
GNP
if
GNP
·
GNP
B0.03+
R
·
R
,
where a dot above a variable represents its partial
derivative with respect to time. If resource use
does not fall significantly and GNP grows at a
rate of less than 3%, which is not uncommon,
then the replacement method together with the
3% escalation factor, ceteris paribus, causes an
increasing gap between GNP and the ISEW/GPI,
thus contributing to the ‘threshold hypothesis’.
Exactly this has happened in the existing studies,
as Fig. 1 shows, which presents the indexed trend
of GNP/GDP together with the indexed trend for
resource depletion with the 3% escalation factor
for a selection of four country studies: the Dutch,
Swedish, US and UK ISEW.3
As can be seen, the
indexed trend for resource depletion with the 3%
escalation factor is growing at a faster rate than
the indexed trend of GNP/GDP, thus causing a
widening gap over time. Ceteris paribus, this
widening gap will translate into a widening gap
between a country’s ISEW and its GNP/GDP and
create evidence for the ‘threshold hypothesis’. The
replacement cost method together with the 3%
escalation factor has a substantial influence on the
ISEW or GPI. The item depletion of natural
resources represents, for example, approximately
37% of all deduction items in the US ISEW in
1990, 31% in the UK ISEW in 1996, 21% in the
Swedish ISEW in 1992 and 36% in the Dutch
ISEW in 1992.
If instead replacement costs are not assumed to
escalate by 3% per annum, but, for the sake of
argument, are assumed to remain constant, then
the item ‘depletion of non-renewable resources’
no longer gives rise to a ‘threshold hypothesis’.
3
Because the threshold hypothesis refers to a period during
the 1970s or early 1980s, for ease of exposition 1970 is the
start year in the figure.
5. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361 351
Fig. 1. (a) The Netherlands ISEW. (b) Sweden ISEW. (c) United Kingdom ISEW. (d) United States ISEW.
7. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361 353
See Fig. 1 again, which also shows the indexed
trend for resource depletion without the escala-
tion factor. In the US and the UK indexed GNP/
GDP is now rising faster than resource depletion
due to decreasing non-renewable resource inten-
sity of GNP/GDP, thus creating the opposite of a
threshold effect.4
In the Swedish and Dutch case,
both trends have a similar shape over time, so
that resource depletion does not contribute to a
widening gap between ISEW and GDP.
2.2. Resource production or resource
consumption?
In the last section, it has not been made clear
whether resource use refers to the extraction or
consumption of resources. The reason is that
some studies differ on this respect. On the one
hand, all studies using the resource rent method
value the extraction of resources. This is correct
as the resource rent method attempts to determine
the sustainable parts of an income stream derived
from resource extraction. Only rents from re-
source extraction, not from consumption, enter
the national income accounts. Therefore, to de-
duct the value of consumption instead would
mean to deduct something that has never been
added in the first place.
On the other hand, the studies using the re-
placement cost method are not consistent in their
reference point. Whereas the revised US ISEW in
Cobb and Cobb (1994) and the US GPI estimate
the cost for replacing national extraction, the
Australian GPI and the Chilean, Dutch, Scottish,
Swedish and UK ISEW estimate the cost for
replacing national consumption of non-renewable
resources. Methodologically correct is the valua-
tion of consumption, not extraction. This is be-
cause the rationale behind the method is to
replace non-renewable resource use. Where these
resources come from, whether they are imported
or domestically extracted, simply does not matter.
The idea behind the replacement cost method is
not to cancel out non-sustainable income streams,
as it is with the resource rent method. Instead, the
idea is to estimate the costs of replacing all non-
renewable resources in use for production.
2.3. Total resource rents or user costs according
to the El Serafy method?
Finally, those studies that use the resource rent
method are not unanimous on whether to deduct
total resource rents or merely the user costs com-
puted according to the El Serafy method. Total
resource rents are deducted in the original US,
Austrian, German and Italian ISEW, whereas the
Australian SNBI study uses the El Serafy method.
The difference matters as user costs are in general
only a fraction of total resource rents (see the
appendix to this paper).
In my view, the El Serafy method is to be
preferred. This is because, given substitutability
between natural capital in the form of non-renew-
able resources and other forms of capital, such as
manufactured or human capital, the finite income
stream from a non-renewable resource stock can
be transformed into a lower infinite stream of
income from other forms of capital (Hartwick
1996). What the El Serafy method does is to
compute the difference between these two income
streams and to deduct the resulting so-called user
costs of non-renewable resource extraction. De-
ducting total resource rents instead implies that
one cannot sustain an infinite stream of income
from a finite non-renewable resource via investing
the resource rents into other forms of capital (see
also Neumayer, 2000).
3. Long-term environmental damage
As concerns the valuation of long-term environ-
mental damage, or the costs of climate change as
this item is sometimes called, the fundamental
question is whether this value should accumulate
over time or not. All but the Australian GPI
study have opted for accumulation. It is the objec-
tive of this section to show that accumulation is
incorrect.
Most studies follow the approach taken by
Daly et al. (1989) and Cobb and Cobb (1994) in
valuing each barrel of oil equivalent of annual
4
The same holds true for the US GPI, which is not shown
here for reasons of space limitations.
8. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361354
nonrenewable energy resource consumption at
$0.50 in 1972 dollars. This value is deducted from
the ISEW in this year, but also in all following
years. Similarly, in any given year not only the
value for current resource consumption is de-
ducted, but the values from all past years as well.
Cobb and Cobb (1994, p. 74) provide as justifica-
tion for this accumulation approach that they
‘imagined that a tax or rent of $0.50 per barrel-
equivalent had been levied on all non-renewable
energy consumed during that period and set aside
to accumulate in a non-interest-bearing account
(...). That account might be thought of as a fund
available to compensate future generations for the
long-term damage caused by the use of fossil fuels
and atomic energy.’
Jackson et al. (1997, p. 23) realise in their
computation of the UK ISEW that ‘the major
problem with this approach (...) is the arbitrary
way in which a charge is calculated’. Instead they
purport to value each tonne of greenhouse gas
emissions with its marginal social cost, which they
correctly define as reflecting ‘the total (dis-
counted) value of all the future damage arising
from that tonne of emissions’. Strangely, however,
they follow Cobb and Cobb (1994) in letting this
damage accumulate over time. Stockhammer et
al. (1997) similarly compute marginal social dam-
age costs for the Austrian ISEW — and let the
estimated damage accumulate over time.
Accumulation is theoretically incorrect (Atkin-
son, 1995; Neumayer, 1999a). This is easiest to see
with the UK ISEW study. In valuing each tonne
of emissions with its marginal social cost, the total
future damage of this tonne of emissions is al-
ready valued. To let this value accumulate over
time is self-contradictory and therefore simply
wrong as it leads to multiple counting of the total
future damage. Jackson et al. (1997) value each
tonne of carbon with a marginal social cost of
£11.4 in 1990 prices. With accumulation, the
present value damage caused by one tonne of
carbon is simply infinite without discounting or
£11.4/r with discounting, where r is the discount
rate. With a discount rate of, say, 5% per annum,
the present value damage per tonne of carbon is
£228. This present value damage per tonne of
carbon of £228 is nothing else but the marginal
social cost per tonne of carbon, which contradicts
Jackson et al.’s earlier assumption of marginal
social cost of £11.4 (Jackson et al., 1997).
That accumulation is incorrect is not as
straightforward to show with the Cobb and Cobb
(1994) approach, as they do not base their valua-
tion on marginal social costs. Instead, as men-
tioned, they justify valuing long-term environ-
mental damage from fossil fuel consumption by
$0.50 per barrel of oil equivalent with the idea
that this would represent the money to be set
aside in order to compensate future generations
for long-term environmental damage. As before,
however, accumulation leads to multiple counting
here as well. This is because with accumulation
money for the damage caused by each unit of
emissions is set aside not only in the year of
emission, but for each subsequent year as well.
Again, the present value of damage caused, but
this time per barrel of oil equivalent, is equal to
$0.50/r, which equals $10 at a discount rate of 5%
per annum. With a carbon content of 0.13 tonnes
per barrel of oil (Poterba, 1991), this translates
into a present value damage per tonne of carbon
of about $75, which is much smaller than the £228
of the UK ISEW.
Note that I do not claim here that a marginal
social cost per tonne of carbon of $75 (US ISEW)
or £228 (UK ISEW) would be unjustifiable. It is
true that $75 is close to the upper end of damage
cost estimates as reported in IPCC (1996, pp.
179–224) and £228 is way beyond the most pes-
simistic upper estimation end. But, given uncer-
tainty and ignorance about the exact
consequences of global warming, such high esti-
mates are not absurd per se. However, if propo-
nents of ISEW think that the marginal social cost
per tonne of carbon emitted is so high, then they
should make their assumption explicit and they
should not use methodologically incorrect
accumulation.
The accumulation of long-term environmental
damage costs exerts a substantial influence on the
ISEW or GPI. This item represents, for example,
approximately 33% of all deduction items in the
US ISEW in 1990, 23% in the UK ISEW in 1996,
30% in the Swedish ISEW in 1992 and 12% in the
Dutch ISEW in 1992. Accumulation of long-term
9. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361 355
environmental damage costs also contributes to
the ‘threshold hypothesis’. Fig. 2 presents the
indexed trend of GNP/GDP together with the
indexed trend of accumulated long-term environ-
mental damage and non-accumulated long-term
environmental damage. As can be seen, the in-
dexed trend for accumulated long-term environ-
mental damage is growing much faster than the
indexed trend of GNP/GDP, thus causing a
widening gap over time. As with the item resource
depletion when replacement costs are assumed to
escalate at 3% per annum, this widening gap will
ceteris paribus, translate into a widening gap be-
tween a country’s ISEW and its GNP/GDP, thus
contributing to the ‘threshold hypothesis’.
If instead long-term environmental damage is
not accumulated, then it no longer gives rise to a
‘threshold hypothesis’. See Fig. 2 again. In the US
and the UK indexed GNP/GDP is now rising
faster than long-term environmental damage due
to decreasing emission intensity of GNP/GDP,
thus creating the opposite of a threshold effect.5
In the Swedish and Dutch case, both trends have
a similar shape over time, so that long-term envi-
ronmental damage does not contribute to a
widening gap between ISEW and GDP.6
One might think that even if long-term environ-
mental damage is not accumulated over time, a
threshold effect might still arise if marginal social
costs per tonne of emitted carbon are assumed to
increase over time. To let marginal social costs
increase over time is correct as the marginal social
cost per tonne of emitted carbon is a positive
function of the accumulated stock of carbon still
resident in the atmosphere. In other words, the
higher the historically accumulated carbon con-
centration in the atmosphere, the higher the social
damage caused by each additional unit of emitted
carbon. Jackson et al. (1997, p. 24) actually follow
this approach in assuming ‘firstly that the mar-
ginal social cost in 1990 is equal to £11.4 per
tonne [of carbon, E.N.], and secondly that the
marginal social cost in any year is proportional to
the cumulative carbon emissions from the year
1900 up to that point in time [emphasis added].’ It
can be seen, however, from Fig. 2 for the UK
ISEW that a threshold effect does not arise even if
marginal social cost is increasing over time, as
long as the annual damage itself is not accumu-
lated over time. Whether a threshold effect can
arise under differing, but still plausible assump-
tions about the rate of increase of marginal social
cost deserves some further attention and cannot
be ruled out at this stage with confidence. But at
least for the UK ISEW, the only study so far
using rising marginal social costs, the threshold
effect fails to materialise.
4. Adjustment for inequality
As concerns adjusting consumption expendi-
tures for income inequalities, studies differ quite
substantially on the method chosen, which is
partly to be explained by international differences
in the availability of relevant data. It would be
beyond the scope of this paper to provide a full
discussion here. Instead I will concentrate on a
fundamental difference between the approach
taken in the UK ISEW and in the rest of the
studies.
4.1. Atkinson index or other indices?
Whereas Jackson et al. (1997) use an index,
which allows the choice of a parameter represent-
ing society’s aversion to inequality, all other stud-
ies use an index, mostly the Gini coefficient,
which does not offer such a choice. Jackson et al.
use the so-called Atkinson index (Atkinson 1970),
which is defined as:
Atkinson index=1−exp
%(Yi/Y)1/(1−m)
fi
n1/(1−m)
where Yi denotes the income of all individuals in
the ith income group (n groups altogether), fi
denotes the proportion of the population with
incomes in the ith range; and Y denotes the mean
income. The extreme boundary cases are m=0,
5
The same result holds true for the Austrian, German and
Italian ISEW, which is not shown here for reasons of space
limitations.
6
The same result holds true for the Chilean ISEW (not
shown here).
10. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361356
Fig. 2. (a) The Netherlands ISEW. (b) Sweden ISEW. (c) United Kingdom ISEW. (d) United States ISEW.
12. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361358
which implies no aversion to inequality whatso-
ever, and m=
13. , which implies extreme aversion
to income inequality in only taking account of
transfers to the very lowest income group.
The great advantage of this approach is that in
choosing m, the researcher makes explicit his or
her implicit assumption on society’s aversion to
income inequality. Alternatively, the researcher
can try to estimate o from revealed preference
studies of consumer behaviour. Pearce and Ulph
(1995), for example, provide an estimate of m for
the UK from a survey of the empirical literature
with a lower bound of 0.7, an upper bound of 1.5
and a best estimate of 0.8.
If instead, for example, the Gini coefficient is
used, then usually 1 year is set as the base year for
the index. In the US GPI, for example, which uses
the Gini coefficient, 1968 is set as 100, because ‘it
represented the lowest Gini coefficient over the
1950–1998 period, thus the least income inequal-
ity. All other years are then compared to this
benchmark’ and an index is created (Redefining
Progress, 1999). The inequality adjusted consump-
tion expenditures are reached via dividing unad-
justed expenditures by this index and multiplying
with 100. This approach is very ad hoc and the
researcher’s underlying assumptions about soci-
ety’s aversion to income inequality are not expli-
cated. With the Atkinson index, on the other
hand, the researcher is forced to explicate his or
her implicit assumptions regarding society’s aver-
sion to income inequality The researcher can even
attempt to minimise the influence of his or her
own value judgements in trying to estimate soci-
ety’s revealed preferences.
4.2. Index of welfare or sustainable income?
In using an index of inequality to adjust con-
sumption expenditures, great care needs to be
applied to adequately interpret the resulting
ISEW/GPI. More generally, as soon as indexing is
applied to one of its items, interpretation must
follow either of two lines: First, the ISEW/GPI
can be interpreted as an index as well. If so, then
only changes in the index over time can meaning-
fully be interpreted. For example, one can say
that the ISEW/GPI rose or fell in a certain year
by x percent. The absolute level of the ISEW/
GPI, on the other hand, bears no meaning and
should not be referred to then. Second, if the
ISEW/GPI is interpreted in absolute terms rather
than as an index, then a statement is needed on
what the base year of indexing part of its compo-
nents has been. This is because the absolute level
of ISEW/GPI crucially depends on choosing a
base year for indexing as the reference point.
Thus, the US GPI per capita in 1997, for example,
needs to be stated as follows: 6521 in constant
chained 1992 dollars with base year 1968 for
income inequality indexing.
Related to this point, the ISEW/GPI needs to
be interpreted as a measure of welfare, not as
sustainable or Hicksian income. Amongst other
things, this is because, due to the indexing, the
resulting ISEW/GPI cannot be interpreted as the
income that society can safely consume and be as
well off at the end of the year as at the beginning.
Daly et al. (1989, p. 84) were clearly aware of this
crucial point. Lately, however, this distinction
seems to have become blurred. England (1998, p.
265), for example, in praising ISEW suggests that
it ‘is directly comparable to gross domestic
product’. However, the absolute level of ISEW/
GPI cannot be directly compared to the absolute
level of GNP as the absolute level of ISEW/GPI is
weighed by an index for income inequality,
whereas GNP is not. Meaningful comparison is
confined to the trend of ISEW/GPI over time
compared to the trend of GNP.
5. Conclusion
From the analysis above follow several recom-
mendations for researchers who intend to update
existing or create new studies of ISEW, GPI or
related measures. First, if one uses the resource
rent method for the valuation of non-renewable
resources, then the reference point should be na-
tional extraction of non-renewable resource deple-
tion, not consumption, and one should consider
estimating user costs according to the El Serafy
method instead of deducting total resource rents.
Second, if one uses the replacement cost method,
then the reference point should be national con-
14. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361 359
sumption of non-renewable resources, not extrac-
tion, and some thought should be given to
whether the totality of non-renewable resources
needs to be replaced in the present. More impor-
tantly, future researchers should seriously con-
sider abandoning the 3% cost escalation factor.
Third, long-term environmental damage should
not be accumulated, as doing so leads to multiple
counting. Fourth, future researchers should con-
sider using the Atkinson index if they want to
adjust consumption expenditures for income in-
equality, as this index demands explication of the
implicit assumption about society’s aversion to
inequality. Fifth, with indexing applied to any of
its items, the resulting ISEW/GPI cannot be di-
rectly compared to GNP in absolute terms. While
it is tempting to do so, no such comparison is
meaningfully possible. Only trends over time can
be compared.
The analysis in this paper has also shed some
light on the robustness of the ‘threshold hypothe-
sis’. It has been shown that if no escalation factor
is applied to valuing the depletion of non-renew-
able resources, and if long-term environmental
damage is not accumulated, then none of these
items contributes any longer to a widening gap
between ISEW/GPI and GNP. The other environ-
mentally related items in a typical ISEW/GPI,
such as costs of water, air and noise pollution,
generally do not contribute to such a gap either,
as they do not grow faster than GNP (for reasons
of space they could not be dealt with here in more
detail). One can therefore conclude from the anal-
ysis above that variables related to the environ-
ment do not provide evidence for the ‘threshold
hypothesis’. They only do so if a widening gap
between ISEW/GPI and GNP is artificially cre-
ated via the introduction of the 3% cost escalation
factor and the accumulation of long-term environ-
mental damage.
This does not provide sufficient evidence
against the ‘threshold hypothesis’ in general, as
other factors covered by ISEW/GPI might still
create a widening, but smaller, gap between
ISEW/GPI and GNP/GDP. Related research has
shown that, in general, the ‘threshold hypothesis’
is not simply an artefact of the cost escalation
factor in non-renewable resource depletion and of
the accumulation of long-term environmental
damage in all studies (Saito, 1999). To analyse the
more general robustness of the ‘threshold hypoth-
esis’, one needs to examine each study in much
more detail. Such a task would be beyond the
scope of this paper and is the subject of ongoing
research. What this paper has tried to show,
however, is that the threshold, if existent, is not
due to factors related to the environment.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Mako Saito for valuable
research assistance. I would also like to thank
Giles Atkinson and two referees, Saleh El Serafy
and Phil Lawn, for helpful comments. I am grate-
ful to Clive Hamilton and Mark Anielski for an
enormously productive exchange of ideas and ar-
guments — we tend to agree that we disagree. All
errors are mine. Financial assistance from the
European Commission’s Marie Curie Research
Scheme (DGXII) is gratefully acknowledged.
Appendix A. Derivation of user costs according to
the El Serafy method
The formula for computing user costs accord-
ing to the El Serafy method is derived from the
following reasoning (El Serafy, 1989): receipts
from non-renewable resource extraction should
not fully count as ‘sustainable income’ because
resource extraction leads to a lowering of the
resource stock and thus brings with it an element
of depreciation of the capital that the resource
stock represents. While the receipts from the re-
source stock will end at some finite time, ‘sustain-
able income’ by definition must last forever.
Hence, ‘sustainable income’ is that part of re-
source rents which if received infinitely would
have a present value just equal to the present
value of the finite stream of resource rents over
the lifetime of the resource.
Let P be the resource price, AC average extrac-
tion cost, R the amount of resource extracted, r
the discount rate and n the number of remaining
years of the resource stock if extraction was the
15. E. Neumayer / Ecological Economics 34 (2000) 347–361360
same in the future as in the base year, i.e. n is the
static reserves to extraction ratio. Then the
present value of total resource rents RR
(P−
AC)·R is equal to:
%
n
i=0
RR
(1+r)i
=
RR
1−
1
(1+r)n+1
n
1−
1
1+r
(1)
The present value of an infinite stream of ‘sustain-
able income’ SI is
%
16. i=0
SI
(1+r)i
=
SI(1+r)
r
=
SI
1−
1
1+r
(2)
Setting Eq. (1) and Eq. (2) equal and rearranging
expresses SI as a fraction of RR:
SI=RR
1−
1
(1+r)n+1
n
The user costs, representing the depreciation of
the resource stock, would thus be
(RR−SI)=RR
1
(1+r)n+1
n
=(P−AC) · R
1
(1+r)n+1
n
If r0 and n0, then user costs are only a
fraction of total resource rents (P−AC)·R. The
higher r is, the lower are, ceteris paribus, user
costs. This is because a smaller share of resource
rents has to be invested in an alternative form of
capital in order to provide a sustainable alterna-
tive income stream if the rate of return on this
alternative investment is higher. Similarly, the
higher n is, the lower are user costs. This is
because, for given resource extraction, a smaller
share of the total resource stock is used up.
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