Like many value stocks, Omnicom is materially undervalued relative to its intrinsic value. However, it is also unique because its stable ROIC / EVA has not, historically, been reflected in its relative stock price nor its equity beta.
Resolving these inconsistencies may require a material reduction in its excess cash holdings and/or additional corporate governance reform. It is not inconceivable that an activist investor will be drawn to the company, despite its status as a large cap stock.
Analysis of Financial Statements.(Ratio analysis, Du Pont system ,Effects of ...Tanjin Tamanna urmi
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
Liquidity: Ability to meet current obligations
Asset Mgmt: Proper & effective use of assets
Asset utilization (i.e., Total Asset Turnover Ratio:
TAT = Sales / T. Assets
Debt Mgmt: extent of debt & level of safety afforded creditors
Debt utilization (i.e., Equity Multiplier:
EM = T. Assets / T. Eqty
Profitability: reflects effects of liquidity, asset mgmt, & debt on operating results
Expense Control: Profit Margin:
PM = Net Income / Sales
Market Value: indicators of what investors think of firm’s past results & future prospects
Analysis of Financial Statements.(Ratio analysis, Du Pont system ,Effects of ...Tanjin Tamanna urmi
Five Categories of Fin. Ratios
Liquidity: Ability to meet current obligations
Asset Mgmt: Proper & effective use of assets
Asset utilization (i.e., Total Asset Turnover Ratio:
TAT = Sales / T. Assets
Debt Mgmt: extent of debt & level of safety afforded creditors
Debt utilization (i.e., Equity Multiplier:
EM = T. Assets / T. Eqty
Profitability: reflects effects of liquidity, asset mgmt, & debt on operating results
Expense Control: Profit Margin:
PM = Net Income / Sales
Market Value: indicators of what investors think of firm’s past results & future prospects
COVID-19 has disrupted the global financial market and our team sought to exploit these arbitrage opportunities presented to create a U$500MM active portfolio across Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Cash, and Commodities. Our portfolio uses Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization in allocating weights and its performance is constantly monitored against the benchmark FundX, which compromises of MSCI World Index (Equities), iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (Bond) and S&P GSCI Index (Commodities). We considered the risk and return tradeoffs, macroeconomic and microeconomic catalysts, quantitative data as well as qualitative information in our asset selections.
Team members: Emily Pope, Sharon Lee and Jayson Chaplin
Dear students get fully solved assignments
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The opportunity to explore how a company uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to compute the cost of capital for each of its divisions. The use of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula and the mechanics of applying it are stressed.
Before its recent merger, Joy Global's debt was priced as if the common equity was worthless. Such a conclusion would require annual average CFFO declines of 20+% from 2016 to 2020. Concerns about COP21/Paris Agreement appear overstated for Joy Global, and we argue that the stock includes a free embedded option for the successful commercialization of carbon capture and storage.
COVID-19 has disrupted the global financial market and our team sought to exploit these arbitrage opportunities presented to create a U$500MM active portfolio across Equities, Fixed Income, FX, Cash, and Commodities. Our portfolio uses Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization in allocating weights and its performance is constantly monitored against the benchmark FundX, which compromises of MSCI World Index (Equities), iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (Bond) and S&P GSCI Index (Commodities). We considered the risk and return tradeoffs, macroeconomic and microeconomic catalysts, quantitative data as well as qualitative information in our asset selections.
Team members: Emily Pope, Sharon Lee and Jayson Chaplin
Dear students get fully solved assignments
Send your semester & Specialization name to our mail id :
help.mbaassignments@gmail.com
or
call us at : 08263069601
http://finishedexams.com/homework_text.php?cat=15832
Immediate access to solutions for ENTIRE COURSES, FINAL EXAMS and HOMEWORKS “RATED A+" - Without Registration!
The opportunity to explore how a company uses the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to compute the cost of capital for each of its divisions. The use of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula and the mechanics of applying it are stressed.
Before its recent merger, Joy Global's debt was priced as if the common equity was worthless. Such a conclusion would require annual average CFFO declines of 20+% from 2016 to 2020. Concerns about COP21/Paris Agreement appear overstated for Joy Global, and we argue that the stock includes a free embedded option for the successful commercialization of carbon capture and storage.
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청정삶터 만들기 5 | 최광수 4
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'Muziek kan ons helpen een gevoel te beleven,’ zegt neuropsycholoog Erik Scherder. ‘Van vrolijke muziek word je vrolijk – je gaat er zelfs eerder vrolijke gezichten door opmerken. Verdrietige muziek kan helpen je verdriet te verwerken.
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Discover what markets could look like in the future and some of the strategies investors use in order to continue meeting their retirement goals with Josh Hall from Aberdeen Asset Management.
Mercer Capital's Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity and Credit | Q1 2020Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Portfolio Valuation: Private Equity and Venture Capital Marks and Trends Newsletter provides a brief digest and commentary of some of the most relevant market trends influencing the fair value regarding private equity portfolio investments.
SBI Equity Savings Fund: An Open-ended Equity Scheme - Sep 16SBI Mutual Fund
"SBI Equity Savings Fund is an open-ended equity scheme which aims to generate income by investing in arbitrage opportunities in the cash and derivatives segment of the equity market, and capital appreciation through a moderate exposure in equity.This equity scheme offers the investor 3 benefits in one fund-income oppurtunity,growth potential of equity and tax efficieny. To know more about this mutual fund check the SBI Mutual Fund Page
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SBI Equity Savings Fund: A Hybrid Mutual Fund Scheme - Nov 17SBI Mutual Fund
SBI Equity Savings Fund is an open-ended equity scheme which involves low risk hybrid strategies.This fund operates in a tax-efficient manner. SBI Equity Savings Fund aims to generate income by investing in arbitrage opportunities in the cash and derivatives segment of the equity market. It also aims to generate capital appreciation through a moderate exposure in equity. Learn more about SBI Equity Savings Fund at https://www.sbimf.com/en-us/hybrid-schemes/sbi-equity-savings-fund
SBI Equity Savings Fund: An Hybrid Fund By SBI Mutual Fund - Jul 2016SBI Mutual Fund
SBI Equity Savings Fund is best suited for an investor who wants to combine the potential for capital appreciation along with regular income & medium volatility. For more information on mutual funds check the SBI Mutual Fund website https://www.sbimf.com today!
Similar to Omnicom Should Be On Value Investor & Activist Investors' Radar Screen (20)
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
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how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
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NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Disclaimer
1
The opinions expressed in this presentation by Lateral Capital Management, Inc. (“LMCI”) are not an
investment recommendation and are not meant to be relied upon in reaching an investment
decision. LCMI and its employees, consultants and contractors are not acting in an investment, tax,
legal or any other advisory capacity.
The opinions expressed herein address a limited number of aspects regarding a potential investment
in securities of the companies mentioned and are not a substitute for a comprehensive investment
analysis. Any analysis presented herein is illustrative in nature, limited in scope, based on an
incomplete set of information, and has limitations as to its accuracy.
LCMI recommends that potential and existing investors conduct a thorough investment analysis of
their own, including a detailed review of the companies' SEC filings, and consulting a qualified
investment advisor. This material is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable, but the reliability of that source information.
Any opinions or estimates constitute a best judgment as of the date of this presentation and are
subject to change without notice. LCMI explicitly disclaims any liability that may arise from the use of
this material.
3. Executive Summary
2
Omnicom Group (“OMC”) has an impressive track record of earnings and cash flows
Its free cash flow generation during economic recessionsis particularly impressive
A long-term campaign of stock buy-backs has contributed to per share outperformance
However, the OMC stock price has not outperformed the S&P500 Index and has a relatively high
equity beta
There are several factors behind this lackluster price performance
We consider the most likely candidates to be the excess cash holdings (which impairs economic returns)
as well as on-going corporate governance concerns
As well as a general market misunderstanding of the business drivers and relative performance record
Intrinsic value, trading comps and acquisition valuation all suggest the stock is 30% to 60%
undervalued
Major Board changes are due in 2018. Before then the company could take a number of steps
to enhance OMC’s relative stock price performance
A $2 billion stock buyback via a Dutch tender auction would signal to the market the intrinsic value of the
company
Continued reform of corporate governance arrangements are possible, even before the 2018 retirement
of the Executive Chairman
Failure to take these steps may draw additional attention from Activist Investors
6. Revenues are Diversified by Industry And Geography
3
While servicing clients on six continents, OMS revenues are skewed towards the US and Europe
Figure 1 & 2
OMC Revenue by Industry OMC Revenue by Geography
7. Consistent Growth With Occasional Mild Downturn
4
Grey shaded areas represent US recessions
Figure 3
Even during the 2008/9
Financial Crisis, OMC
generated positive Funds
From Operations in excess
of $[1] billion
By investing capex pro-
cyclically and continually
buying back shares, OMC
improves its Free Cash
Flow during economic
downturns
8. Share Buy-backs and Capex Are Pro-Cyclical
5
Part of the steady improvement in OMC’s per share economics is “financial engineering” made
possible by excess cash flow generation Figure 4
OMC Shares Outstanding
9. OMC’s ROIC Has Historically Been Almost Twice its WACC
6
The consistent generation of EVA over several decades is an impressive achievement; particularly during
economic downturns Figure 5
OMC Return on Invested Capital & EVA
10. OMC’s Peers Have Far More Volatile ROIC Results
7
OMC has improved both its ROIC and its EVA since 2015
Figure 6
12. OMC Has Not Historically Outperformed the Market
8
By outperforming the SPY in bull markets, and underperforming in bear markets, OMC has tracked
the SPY for decades. It remains to be seen whether the recent outperformance continues after the
next bear market
Figure 7
OMC Relative Share Price Performance
13. Its Equity Beta Is Relatively High For Such A Stable Company
9
OMC shareholders have historically seen the worst of both worlds – a stock price that doesn’t
outperform the broader market, combined with a higher risk profile Figures 8
The relatively high equity
beta also increases OMC’s
cost of equity and overall
cost of funding
15. Trades at a 20% to 45% Discount to its Large-Cap Peers
10
Figure 9
By consistently creating Economic Value Add (“EVA”) over several decades, there is a compelling
case for OMC to trade at a premium to its industry peers
16. Intrinsic Value Is 35% to 60% Above The Current Price
11
Figure 10OMC Unlevered Free Cash Flow - DCF Valuation – Base Case
17. DCF Valuation Sensitivities
12
The current OMC stock price is implicitly assuming that OMC revenues will grow at 0% per annum…
forever. Figure 11
OMC Unlevered Free Cash Flow : DCF Valuation Sensitivities : % change to current stock price
18. DCF Valuation – Monte CarloSensitivities
13
We ran 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations with random revenue growth rates for each projection year
between 2017 and 2022. A number of these simulations included negative growth rate projections Figure 12
OMC Monte Carlo Simulations: Revenue Growth Rate
19. The Average Monte Carlo Valuation Upside Was Over 40%
14
Even in the most extreme Monte Carlo revenue simulation downside scenario, there was a valuation
premium to the current OMC stock price of over 13% Figure 13
OMC Monte Carlo Simulations: Revenue Growth Rate
20. Relative Earnings Yield
15
The current earnings yield differential of 700 basis points over constant maturity ten-year Treasuries is
high by historical standards Figure 14
OMC Earnings Yield Spread Over Constant Maturity 10-Year
Treasury Yield
22. Contributing Factors
16
Sections 4.1 to 4.4 are possible reasons for the current OMC mispricing. Sections 4.5, and 5 to 8 are
actions that OMC or third parties could take to reduce, or eliminate, the OMC mispricing Figure 15
Section numbers in Figure
15 are references to
sections of the original
written article on the
SeekingAlpha.com
website
OMC Risk/Reward Profile
23. Being a Serial Acquirer May Be a Factor
17
Figure 16
While OMC stockholders
face the risk of imprudent
acquisitions, the size and
frequency of the OMC
acquisitions is relatively
minor.
Goodwill has even
declined in recent years.
Acquisitions have not
been financed with
excessive net stock
issuance and the company
consistently uses low risk
earn-outs as a higher
proportion of the
potential purchase price
Extensive use of earn-outs (i.e. contingent purchase price payments) reduces the execution risks
associated with OMC’s acquisition program
24. Revenues are Highly Dependent on Global Growth
18
The pro-cyclical nature of OMC’s revenues may explain part of the stock price correlations with the
SPY Figure 17
OMC Revenue Sensitivity to Global Economic Growth
25. But OMC’s EVA is Not Correlated to Global Growth
19
The spread between ROIC & WACC is not driven by global growth. The stock valuation should
reflect this ability to generate positive EVA in all market conditions Figure 18
OMC ROIC & EVA Sensitivity to GlobalEconomic Growth
26. OMC EBITDA Margin Is Counter-Cyclical
20
Revenue cyclicality does not flow through to CFFO and/or FCF because of working capital
management, counter-cyclical cost controls, pro-cyclical capex & stock buybacks Figure 19
OMC Revenues vs EBITDA Margin: 2001 to LTM
27. OMC Investors Can Outperform the SPY if Buying on a Dip
21
However, in 2002 the outperformance gains were all made within a couple of months after the
lowest stock price during the market downturn. Buying after this window of opportunity would have
resulted in almost no subsequent stock price outperformance
Figure 20
Trying to buy OMC at a
depressed price and/or
trading multiple requires
impeccable timingOMC Relative Stock Price Performance vs S&P500 Index From Low Point In Each Market Downturn
30. Intangibles Amortization Means a Strategic Buyer Is Less Likely
23
Figure 21
OMC only has $113
million in tax loss
carryforwards (as at
December 31, 2015) so a
338(h)(10) is unlikely.
Meaning the strategic
buyer cannot take
advantage of cash tax
(IRS) deductions for the
goodwill and/or intangible
asset amortization
… and/or the large acquired goodwill impact on tangible book value will also deter some strategic
buyers
31. Leveraged Buy Out Valuation
24
Figures 22 & 23
The new owner can take
advantage of the goodwill
created from prior OMC
acquisitions of other
companies.
To realize a 20% to 25% 5-year, pre-tax IRR, a generic LBO fund could afford to pay a 30+% premium
32. LBO Acquisition Leverage
25
Figure 24
The LBO acquisition should be able to rapidly de-lever in our base case scenario from around 6 times
EBITDA in 2016 to 3 times by 2020
33. LBO Valuation Sensitivities
26
If the LBO fund assumes it can exit the investment for the same EBITDA multiple as its entry price
(~13.5x EBITDA), but targeting a more realistic 15% to 20% IRR hurdle rate, it may offer as much
as a 60% premium
Figure 25
34. A 30% Offer Premium Is Viable Under Several Scenarios
27
Figure 26
35. Key Driver For Offer Premium Is Expected Synergies
28
OMC’s opex consists maily of salary, service costs, occupancy costs and SG&A
Figure 27
OMC LBO IRR Sensitivities
36. OMC Implemented a 10% O&M Cost Cut in 2009
29
Suggesting an LBO fund should be able to easily implement our base case 5% opex reduction
Figure 28
Whether a 10% opex
reduction has a
permanent impact on
OMC’s ability to generate
future revenues and cash
flow is unclear
OMC Historical O&M
38. Investors Concerns Over Governance Remain Elevated
30
Despite appointing a lead independent director in 2015, 36% of OMC stockholders voted for an
independent Chairman in 2016 Figure 29
41. Cash Balances as a % of Revenues Appear High
31
Management appears to be targeting a cash holding in the range of 10% to 20% of
annual revenues Figure 30
OMC Nominal and Relative Excess Cash Holdings
42. Cash Flow Seasonality Can be Dealt with via Credit Revolver
32
OMC currently has $3.5 billion of untapped revolving credit, in addition to its current $1.7 billion in cash
holdings. Normalized cash on hand is closer to $2.5 billion Figure 31
OMC Quarterly Cash & EquivalentsClosing Balance
43. Working Capital Has Fluctuated In A Stable Range Despite OMC Growth
33
The rating agencies will not adjust excess cash in a their liquidity projections for anticipated working
capital needs if the company can drawn on bank lines Figure 32
OMC Quarterly Change in Working Capital
44. The Trend In OMC’s Cash Balance Is More Apparent On An Annual Basis
34
Corporate growth has been reflected in nominal end-of-year cash balance growth
Figure 33
OMC End of Year Cash Holdings
46. Liquidity Components – Net Working Capital
35
OMC’s liquidity needs are being funded by its creditors to the tune of between $3 billion and $4 billion
per year; this is equivalent to > 20% of OMC’s annual revenues Figure 34
OMC Net Working Capital
47. Steady FFO Generation Also Contributes to Liquidity
36
Even in 2009, FFO declined 12% but was still a net positive. Contributing an additional $[1] billion of
liquidity during the worst economic downturn in recent times (i.e. 2009) Figure 35
OMC FFO & CFFO Annual % Change
52. Projected Liquidity – Base Case
38
Figure 37
Projected liquidity is shown using “normalized” cash of $2.6 billion. CP issuance is not included
OMC Quantitative Liquidity Measures
53. Working Capital Association with Revenue Increases
39
Figure 38
The credit rating agency liquidity test includes a 15% EBITDA reduction scenario. In that scenario we
flat-line changes in Net Working Capital. However, OMC has historically been able to reduce working
capital needs, even when revenues were increasing
OMC: % change FFO vs $ Change in Net Working Capital: 2002 to LTM
54. Projected Liquidity Pro Forma For a $2 Billion Cash Distribution
40
Applying the more realistic cash balance of $2.5+ billion, suggests OMC could implement a $3 billion
stockholder distribution and still meet the credit rating agency liquidity tests
OMC Liquidity Tests
Figure 39
55. Projected Liquidity Pro Forma For a $2 Billion Cash Distribution
41
Monte Carlo simulations adjust the size of the credit facility, the amount of capex spend & other liquidity
variables as per the liquidity base case. All simulations are based on initial $1.5 billion cash balance
OMC: Monte Carlo Simulations:
Revenue Growth Rate:
$1.5 billion Cash Holdings: 2017E Liquidity
Figure 40
60. Even After a “2008” Style Price Decline, Pro Forma Leverage is Moderate
44
Figure 43
61. Downside Scenario Without Excess Cash “Buffer”
45
Excess cash distribution moves OMC to its optimal cost of capital. Even a major market downturn
does not push OMC too far beyond this optima Figure 44
63. Merits of Various Options to Distribute Excess Cash
46
Figure 45
Given the extensive use of
option-based
compensation, a stock
buyback seems the most
likely of the three
alternatives for
distributing excess cash
64. Potential Stock Price Reaction Based on Buyback Premium & Trading Multiples
47
Figure 46
66. Large Caps are Increasingly a Focus of Activist Investors
48
Size and relative stock price performance are no longer major deterrents to activist investors. It is
increasingly common for funds to collaborate in a “wolf pack” when targeting larger companies Figure 47
Activist Campaigns Against Mega Cap & Large Cap Companies
67. There Are Several Reasons Why Activists May Target OMC
49
Governance concerns and/or excess cash holdings are two of the most common reasons why activist
investors initiate a campaign Figure 48
69. Recap
50
OMC’s track record of above-market ROICs and EVAs is not reflected in its relative stock price
performance
Historically, many OMC stockhodlers would be better off buying a market ETF rather than the
high beta OMC stock
Which should not be the case for a company that performs as well, operationally
speaking, as OMC during economic downturns
Several valuation methodologies point to significant stock undervaluation at current price levels
In the upside valuation scenarios there is probably 60+% price appreciation
We considered the influence of OMC’s excess cash holdings and consider it a material drag on
financial performance without any commensurate benefits
A conservative $2 billion Dutch-tender stock buyback could signal to the markets the
extent of the current mispricing of OMC’s stock
Corporate governance reform has begun at OMC, although there are a number of additional
reform measures that could attract a wider audience of institutional investors to the OMC registry
Failure to implement a cash distribution and/or material corporate governance reforms could
draw the attention of a number of activist investors in 2017