The document summarizes the global supply and demand outlook for oilseeds and oilmeals. It notes that world production of 10 major oilseeds has doubled in the past 20 years, driven by strong demand, though some grains are now taking acreage from oilseeds in South America. Global production of soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed are each forecasted to set new records in 2016/17. Stocks of soybeans are at a record high but declining. Tight vegetable oil supplies and growing demand, especially from China, are expected to boost global oilseed crushing to new highs.

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Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
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World Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for
Oilseeds and Oilmeals
GLOBOIL India in Goa, 22-23 Sept 2016

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World production of 10 oilseeds
doubling in the past 20 years
Strong demand.
Is this trend sustainable?
Grains taking acreage from
oilseeds in South America
91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 2016/17F
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Production (Mn T)
Area (Mn ha)
10 Oilseeds: World Area and Production

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Soybeans 62%
Rapeseed 11%
Sunseed 9%
Cottonseed 7%
Groundnuts 6%
Copra & Palmkernels 4%
Other 3 Oilseeds 2%
2016/17 -- 535.2 Mn T
Other ctries 14%
EU-28 6%
C.I.S. 7%
Canada & U.S.A. 28%
Brazil 19%
Argentina 12%
China 8%
India 6%
10 Oilseeds - - 535.2 Mn T
Global Production of 10 Oilseeds

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January 2004 until 15 Sept 2016
200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
S oyb ea ns, US , cif R'd m
1 0-yea r a ve ra ge (19 9 8-2 00 7)
Monthly Prices of Soybeans, US (in US-$/T)
In 2015 prices have
fallen below
production costs for
many farmers
Supply responses, for
example in India &
China
Where are we going
from here?
In India prices my fall
below Gov. support
prices

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Veg. oil imports up
75% within the last 5
years until 2015/16…
Will the world market
be able to satisfy
Indian demand in the
future?
Outlook 2016/17:
Soya crop and crush
in India?
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
10/11
12/13
14/15
16/17F
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
INDIA: Oilseed Crops and Imports of Oils (Mn T)
Imports of Oils
Crops
+ 75%

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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Output
Dom. use
Exports
Output, Exports & Dom estic Dem and (M n T)
Soybean Meal in India
In India the soybean
crop seen to recover to
9.5 Mn T in 2016 (from
7.1 last year)
Lack of farmer selling
Soybean prices under
pressure, but still too
high to allow crushers to
find buyers on world
market
Our estimates too high?
Soya crush 7.4 (vs 5.4)
Meal export 1.4 (vs 0.2)

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Rapeseed production
falling to a 5-year low of
60.6 Mn T 2016/17
Farmers losing interest.
Biggest losses in
-EU-28(- 2.2 Mn T)
-China (-2.0 Mn T)
-Ukraine (- 0.4 Mn T)
Swings factors to watch:
Canada + Australia
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17F
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
RAPESEED & CANOLA
Production
Harvested Area

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Sunseed production to
reach a record 46.0 Mn T in
2016/17 (+3.8)
-Ukraine 13.2 Mn T (+1.4)
-Russia 10.4 Mn T (+0.8)
-EU-28 8.1 Mn T (+0.6)
-Argentina 3.8 Mn T (+0.9)
Larger sun oil and meal
supplies
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
10/11
12/13
14/15
16/17F
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
SUNFLOWERSEED
Production
Harvested Area

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Setback in world
production in 2015/16 by
about 7 Mn T
BUT: record US soybean
crop currently in the
making, paving the way for
a recovery to 331 Mn T …
96/97
98/99
00/01
02/03
04/05
06/07
08/09
10/11
12/13
14/15
16/17F
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
SOYBEANS
Production
Harvested Area

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Daily futures from 1 Sept 2015 until 21 Sept 2016
Sep15 Oct Nov Dec Ja16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
Nov 2016 position
50-day moving average
CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)

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O ct1 4
No v
De c
J an
F eb
M ar
A pr
M ay
J ne
J ly
A ug
S ep15
O ct
No v
De c
J an
F eb
M ar
A pr
M ay
J ne
J ly
A ug
S ep16
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Change on Year (in Mn T)
Soybean Exports from S. America (a)
(a)B razil, Argentina, Pa rag uay, Uruguay & B olivia

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U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T )
S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t
16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13
Op. stocks . . . 5.30* 5.19 2.50 3.83 4.61
Crop. . . . . . . . 114.33 106.93 106.88 91.39 82.79
Imports . . . . . .80* .67* .93 2.10 1.01
Exports . . . . . 55.00* 52.94* 50.20 44.65 36.17
Crushings . . . 53.00* 51.33* 51.16 47.38 45.97
Other use 3.43* 3.23* 3.77 2.77 2.45
End. stocks . . 9.00* 5.30* 5.19 2.50 3.83
Stocks/usage 8.1% 4.9% 4.9% 2.6% 4.5%
U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T )
S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t
16/17F 15/16 14/15 13/14 12/13
Op. stocks . . . 5.30* 5.19 2.50 3.83 4.61
Crop. . . . . . . . 114.33 106.93 106.88 91.39 82.79
Imports . . . . . .80* .67* .93 2.10 1.01
Exports . . . . . 55.00* 52.94* 50.20 44.65 36.17
Crushings . . . 53.00* 51.33* 51.16 47.38 45.97
Other use 3.43* 3.23* 3.77 2.77 2.45
End. stocks . . 9.00* 5.30* 5.19 2.50 3.83
Stocks/usage 8.1% 4.9% 4.9% 2.6% 4.5%

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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00 /01
01 /02
02 /03
03 /04
04 /05
05 /06
06 /07
07 /08
08 /09
09 /10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China
Rest of world
Imports of Soybeans (Mn T)

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98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Production (Mn T)
Crushings (Mn T)
CHINA: Oilseed Output & Crushings

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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Total Oilmeals
Soya Meal
& Growing Importance of Soya Meal (Mn T)
CHINA: Total Oilmeal Consumption
Feed usage up 2-3%
Soya consumption
likely to rise by 7%

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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17F
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T)
9 other seeds
Soybeans
Further boost in world
soybean crushings by
15 Mn T required in
2016/17, because
- rising demand
- still insufficient palm
oil supplies
- tightness of oth seeds
- low stocks of veg oil…

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02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17F
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
17 OILS & FATS: Surplus/Deficit of Output vs. Usage
Mn T
Surplus
Deficit

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92/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Total and Annual Change (Mn T)
10 Oilseeds : World Crushings
World Crushings
Annual change

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World stocks of
soybeans at a record
85 Mn T at the end of
2014/15 season
BUT stocks already
started to decline in
2015/16,
and are likely to
decline further in
2016/17, despite
record US crop
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F
0
20
40
60
80
100
Soybeans: W orld Stocks as of end-August (Mn T)

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02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17F
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T)
Other 11 oilmeals
Soyameal
But soybeans cannot
solve an oil supply
tightness in the world
without creating a
surplus in soya meal

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Soya meal 66,6%
Rape meal 10,0%
Sun meal 5,4% Fish meal 1,3%
Others 16,6%
2016/17 - - 339.8 Mn T
Soya meal 50,7%
Rape meal 10,3%
Sun meal 7,1%
Fish meal 4,6%
Others 27,3%
1990/91 - - 137 Mn T
World Production of 12 Oilmeals

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Daily futures from 1 Oct 2015 until 21 Sept 2016
Oct Nov Dec Ja16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
250
300
350
400
450
Dec 2016 position
50-day m oving average
CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST)

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Daily futures from 1 Oct 2015 until 21 Sept 2016
Oct15 Nov Dec Ja16 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
280
320
360
400
440
480
520
560
600
W heat
Corn
December 2016 positions
CBOT: Daily Corn & W heat Futures (c/bu)

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From Oct 1997 until 15 Sept 2016
9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Monthly Prices of Soya Meal, 48%, Brazil
Average 1998-2007: US-$ 220
Soya pellets, 48%, Brazil, cif Rott.
Average 2011-2015: US-$ 472
US-$/T

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Prices from 1 Oct 2013 until 15 Sept 2016
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T)
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16

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07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17F
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Soyameal
11 Other Meals
Change from Previous Season (in Mn T)
12 OILMEALS : World Production
Global protein needs
are high …. and rising.
Lower soy meal prices
will generate further
growth in the expanding
poultry, pig and
aquaculture industries.
… primarily in Asia

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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Argentina
Brazil
U.S.A.
Soya Meal Exports
Mn T

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E n d - S e p t e m b e r
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
SOYA MEAL: World Ending Stocks (Mn T)

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There are many
uncertainties ahead in
the 2016/17 season (just
started). I believe world
soybean usage +19 MnT
But what about 2017/18?
Acreage? Yields?
Palm oil will become
more ample in 17/18.
But we may be heading
into a shortage in
soybeans in 2017/18
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F
0
20
40
60
80
100
Soybeans: W orld Stocks as of end-August (Mn T)

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