1. Global castor oil imports and consumption have increased by 31% and 93% respectively over the last 10 years. 2. India's castorseed crop is projected to be 1,300,000 metric tons in 2018, a new 7-year low, while domestic consumption is projected to be 1,390,000 metric tons, depleting stocks further. 3. For India to satisfy growing domestic and world demand, it will require a much larger castorseed crop in the coming years through higher prices that incentivize increased production.

1. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
World Outlook for Castor Oil 2018
Siegfried Falk
Co-editor of OIL WORLD
ISTA Mielke GmbH
Hamburg, Germany
siegfried.falk@oilworld.de
www.twitter.com/_OILWORLD
Global Castor Conference
2018
Ahmedabad, 24 Feb 2018

2. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
castor olive fish rape soya sunfl palm CNO PKO
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Oct/Jan 2017/18 vs. year ago
Price Changes of Oils
in %
● Biggest price
increase in castor oil
so far this season!
- Overdue correction?
- Supply shortage?
- Incentive for farmers?

3. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
Prices from Oct 1994 until 15 February 2018
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Monthly premiums in US-$/T
Castor Oil & Soya Oil Prices in Rotterdam
Prices from Oct 1994 until 31 January 2018
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
Monthly average prices in US-$/T
Castor Oil & Soya Oil Prices in Rotterdam
Soya oil
Castor oil
10-y avg.

4. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
From 3 Sept 2015 until 15 Feb 2018
Sep15 Ja16 May16 Sep16 Ja17 May17 Sep17 Jan18
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam
Castor oil, fob Kandla
ex-tank Rotterdam and fob Kandla
Weekly Prices of Castor Oil (US-$/T)
● Price rally in Mar/Apr
2017 on lower crop
● Weaker prices since
with quite large exports –
but dowtrend may be
treacherous

5. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
87/88 90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
CASTOR OIL: World Imports & Usage
Consumption
Imports
Thd T
10 years to 16/17:
Consumption +31%
Imports +93%

6. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
CASTOR OIL : World Exports ( 1000 T )
China Other
Oct/Sept India Brazil P.R. ctrs. Total
1985/86 - 89/90 67 75 22 15 179
1990/91 - 94/95 144 16 17 16 193
1995/96 - 99/00 223 9 1 22 255
2000/01 - 04/05 214 7 1 29 251
2005/06 - 09/10 319 2 . 30 351
2012/13 . . . . . . . 474 . . 42 516
2013/14 . . . . . . . 454 . . 41 495
2014/15 . . . . . . . 451 3 . 42 496
2015/16 . . . . . . . 522 3 . 38 563
2016/17 . . . . . . . 559 . . 39 598
2017/18F . . . . . 530* 1* .* 39* 570*
CASTOR OIL : World Exports ( 1000 T )
China Other
Oct/Sept India Brazil P.R. ctrs. Total
1985/86 - 89/90 67 75 22 15 179
1990/91 - 94/95 144 16 17 16 193
1995/96 - 99/00 223 9 1 22 255
2000/01 - 04/05 214 7 1 29 251
2005/06 - 09/10 319 2 . 30 351
2012/13 . . . . . . . 474 . . 42 516
2013/14 . . . . . . . 454 . . 41 495
2014/15 . . . . . . . 451 3 . 42 496
2015/16 . . . . . . . 522 3 . 38 563
2016/17 . . . . . . . 559 . . 39 598
2017/18F . . . . . 530* 1* .* 39* 570*

7. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
CASTOR OIL: Usage in Key Countries
China
U.S.A.
Thd T
EU-28
India
Brazil
● This season China
accounts for about
40% of world usage,
vs. 30% ten years ago

8. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
CHINA : Castor Oil Output & Consumption
Production
Consumption
1000 T
Imports 250-260
Thd TImports 99 Thd T

9. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
Source: Solvent Extractors' Association of India.
Jan15 May15 Sept15 Jan16 May16 Sept16 Jan17 May17 Sep17 Jan18
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Monthly averages
Oilseed Prices in India
1000 Rs. per MT
Soybeans
Groundnuts
Castorseed
Rapeseed
Castorseed:
From least to most
expensive of 4 major
oilseeds
- Effects of higher
vegoil import duties?

10. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
crop
stocks Jan 1
INDIA: Castorseed Supplies (Thd T)
Depleted stocks are
curbing 2018 supplies
to 7-year low with
crop of 1.3-1.4 Mn T

11. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
2019F
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
crop
stocks Jan 1
INDIA: Castorseed Supplies (Thd T)
INDIA Castorseed Balance, 1000 T
2018 2018 2017 2016
Op stocks 180 180 520 530
Crop 1400 1300 1170 1410
Crush 1390 1300 1490 1400
Oth. use 20 20 20 20
End stocks 170 160 180 520
- Crush to decline in 2018
- Further reduction of stocks?
- Large crop required next year

12. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018

13. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 Crop
World demand for India
INDIA: Castor Crop vs Demand (Thd T)
??
● Which crop size is
needed to satisfy
demand?
● What price signals
will it take?

14. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
From 3 Sept 2015 until 15 Feb 2018
Sep15 Ja16 May16 Sep16 Ja17 May17 Sep17 Jan18
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Castor oil, ex-tank Rotterdam
Castor oil, fob Kandla
ex-tank Rotterdam and fob Kandla
Weekly Prices of Castor Oil (US-$/T)

15. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Production Consumption
Change From Year Ago in Mn T
8 Veg. OILS: Production & Demand
04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
8 OILS: Surplus/Deficit of Output vs. Usage
Mn T
Surplus
Deficit
Another production surplus keeping vegoil prices under pressure in 2017/18

16. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
Daily indices fro m 2 Jan 201 8 until 15 Feb 2018
Jan2 Jan16 Feb2 Feb13
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2 January 2018 = 100
CBOT: Daily Indices of Soybean Complex
S oya M ea l Ma rch 20 18
Soybeans March 2018
S oya O il M arch 2 01 8
Daily futures from Jan uary 2 016 u ntil 20 Feb 20 18
Ja16 Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja17 Mar May Jun Jly SepOct Dec Ja18
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
First position in US-$ per barrel
Brent (ICE): Daily Futures of Crude Mineral Oil
Prices from 1 Nov 2016 until 20 Feb 2018
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja18 Feb
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
Third position in Malaysian Ringgit/T
MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close
Effects from drought
in Argentina
Vegoils gain
competitiveness in
energy

17. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018

18. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018

19. Your Independent Information Provider February 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Indian crop, oil equ.
Indian exports + usage
INDIA: Castor Crop vs. Usage (1000 T)
● Crop is
insufficient to
satisfy demand
● Limited scope to
bridge the gap by
reducing stocks