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What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 8th September 201111h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary-General
Growth slowdown across major OECD and non-OECD economies Growth slowdown OECD majors GDP growthQuarterly GDP growth, annualised, in per cent World GDP growthContributions to quarterly GDP growth, annualised, in per cent Source:  OECD Quarterly National  Accounts database; and national sources.
World trade is flat CPB indicator of world tradeIndex: 2000 = 100 World trade Source: Dutch Central Planning Bureau.
Unemployment remains stubbornly high Unemployment rate In percent of labour force Labour markets Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators; and Eurostat.
Five causes of slowdown ,[object Object]
Commodity prices more damaging
Fiscal consolidation may have been faster than anticipated
Faster private sector balance sheet adjustment
Policy uncertaintiesCauses of slowdown
Confidence has weakened Business confidence Consumer confidence Confidence Note: Manufacturing PMI. Normalised and presented in units of standard deviation. Source: Markit. Note: Normalised and presented in units of standard deviation.  Source:  OECD Main Economic Indicators;  Japanese Cabinet Office.
Higher risk perceptions reflected in yields  Euro-area sovereign bond yieldsIn per cent Corporate bond yieldsIn per cent Financial market confidence Source: Datastream; and OECD Main Economic Indicators.
The outlook Annualised quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, in per cent Interim Assessment Weighted average of Germany, France and Italy. Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts database; and OECD Indicator Model forecasts.
Recent weakness is expected to continue for the next two quarters in most major OECD economies Annualised quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth, in per cent Interim Assessment United States Euro 3 (Germany, France and Italy) * - EO89 projections1 1. Refers to OECD Economic Outlook No. 89 projections (published in May 2011). Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts database; OECD Economic Outlook 89 database; and OECD Indicator Model forecasts.
Impact of Japan disaster is fading Car production12-month percent change, number of units produced Japan disaster Note: 2011Source: Toyota Motor Corporation and Honda Motor Co. Ltd monthly reports.
Commodity prices remain high Index: Jan 2000 = 100; US$ per barrel (Brent) Commodity prices Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators; and Datastream.
Equity prices have tumbled Equity prices Index: August 2008 = 100 Note:  United States: Wilshire 5000; France: CAC-40; Germany: DAX Index; Japan: Nikkei 225; United Kingdom: FTSE 100; China: Shanghai Composite Index. Source:  Datastream.
Policy imperative is to restore confidence:medium term Medium-term policy imperatives ,[object Object]

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OECD Economic Outlook Interim Assesment (8 September 2011)

  • 1. What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 8th September 201111h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary-General
  • 2. Growth slowdown across major OECD and non-OECD economies Growth slowdown OECD majors GDP growthQuarterly GDP growth, annualised, in per cent World GDP growthContributions to quarterly GDP growth, annualised, in per cent Source: OECD Quarterly National Accounts database; and national sources.
  • 3. World trade is flat CPB indicator of world tradeIndex: 2000 = 100 World trade Source: Dutch Central Planning Bureau.
  • 4. Unemployment remains stubbornly high Unemployment rate In percent of labour force Labour markets Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators; and Eurostat.
  • 5.
  • 7. Fiscal consolidation may have been faster than anticipated
  • 8. Faster private sector balance sheet adjustment
  • 10. Confidence has weakened Business confidence Consumer confidence Confidence Note: Manufacturing PMI. Normalised and presented in units of standard deviation. Source: Markit. Note: Normalised and presented in units of standard deviation. Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators; Japanese Cabinet Office.
  • 11. Higher risk perceptions reflected in yields Euro-area sovereign bond yieldsIn per cent Corporate bond yieldsIn per cent Financial market confidence Source: Datastream; and OECD Main Economic Indicators.
  • 12. The outlook Annualised quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, in per cent Interim Assessment Weighted average of Germany, France and Italy. Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts database; and OECD Indicator Model forecasts.
  • 13. Recent weakness is expected to continue for the next two quarters in most major OECD economies Annualised quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth, in per cent Interim Assessment United States Euro 3 (Germany, France and Italy) * - EO89 projections1 1. Refers to OECD Economic Outlook No. 89 projections (published in May 2011). Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts database; OECD Economic Outlook 89 database; and OECD Indicator Model forecasts.
  • 14. Impact of Japan disaster is fading Car production12-month percent change, number of units produced Japan disaster Note: 2011Source: Toyota Motor Corporation and Honda Motor Co. Ltd monthly reports.
  • 15. Commodity prices remain high Index: Jan 2000 = 100; US$ per barrel (Brent) Commodity prices Source: OECD Main Economic Indicators; and Datastream.
  • 16. Equity prices have tumbled Equity prices Index: August 2008 = 100 Note: United States: Wilshire 5000; France: CAC-40; Germany: DAX Index; Japan: Nikkei 225; United Kingdom: FTSE 100; China: Shanghai Composite Index. Source: Datastream.
  • 17.
  • 20.
  • 22.
  • 23. Fiscal consolidation required is large in many countries Fiscal policy Improvement in underlying primary balances percentage points of GDP Note: Consolidation through 2011 and 2012 as projected in Economic Outlook 89; consolidation after 2012 assumed to be an additional ½ percentage points of GDP each year. Source: OECD Economic Outlook 89 database; and OECD calculations.
  • 24. What is the economic outlook for OECD countries? An interim assessment Paris, 8th September 201111h00 Paris time Pier Carlo Padoan Chief Economist and Deputy Secretary-General