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REFORMS & RECOVERY Kazi Matin Archanun Kohpaiboon Kirida Bhaopichitr
Coverage of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Aspects of Thai Recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GDP Recovery Next to Korea’s
Private Cons Growth Similar to Korea
Reforms effective - but MORE to sustain strong growth, social stability  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
GDP Shares: 1994-95, 2004-05
PRIVATE INVESTMENT Can it revive more strongly?
Private Investment Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Private Investment Recovery
Private Investment function estimate  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Reversing Private Investment Slowdown ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
STRONG EXPORT GROWTH DURING RECOVERY Can it Continue?
Export Performance During Recovery ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Export Performance Strongest
Reforms Supporting Export Recovery Private Investment Reforms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reforms Supporting Export Recovery Tariff Policy Reforms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reforms Supporting Export Recovery Customs & Trade Facilitation Reforms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Reforms Made Thailand More Open
External Factors Supported Export Recovery  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
East Asia’s countries have high shares of FDI from other East Asian countries -- promoting REGIONAL INTEGRATION
Percentage point change in extra-regional and intra-regional market shares between  1994-96 average and 2002-04 average Regional Integration Major Driver of Exports in E. Asia
Regional Integration – Production fragmentation  to lower costs changes production network allocation to benefit diff. countries
Multinational Corporations Decide Where to Locate Parts of  Production within E. Asia & World Whether THAILAND or some other country benefits – depend on their relative costs & on their integration with domestic economy
Competition for Thailand   -- Lower-income China experienced notable technological upgrading
Thailand’s Upgrading, More Modest  Source: MOC 2.0 0.7 HS28,29 and 30 Chemical and pharmaceutical products 2.0 2.2 HS90 and 91 Scientific instruments, watches and photographic equipment 0.7 0.5 HS8541 (Semiconductors) 5.7 5.7 HS8517-8531 (Communication equipment) 18.3 16.5 HS85 exc.8541 Electrical machinery (other than semiconductors) 10.4 9.7 HS8469-8473 (Computer and office equipment) 17.5 14.0 HS84 Non-electrical machinery 7.4 1.2 HS87 More skill/technology intensive: Road motor vehicles 7.5 17.1 HS41-43 and 50-65 Labor-Intensive Exports: Leather, textiles, apparel, footwear 2005 1995 HS code
Electronics, Other Machinery --Limited domestic value-addition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Most Value-Addition in Auto & parts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Exports of Vehicles & Parts
All Thai Production,  except Design
Can Strong Export Growth Continue? Yes – if … ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Way Forward Policy Reforms
What this recovery experience means?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Policy Reform Agenda  to Convert Strong Recovery to Strong, Quality, Shared GDP Growth   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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