- A referendum on Scottish independence from the UK will be held on September 18th, with polls showing the race is close but the "No" vote now ahead by 53% to 47% - Leaders of the three major UK parties have campaigned strongly for a "No" vote, an unprecedented joint effort, though it does not seem to be having much effect - Business leaders are now warning of negative economic consequences if Scotland votes "Yes", citing issues like currency, regulations, and the declining North Sea oil industry, which is increasing jitters among Scottish voters

1. Och aye the noo
Russell Grenning
The campaignto decide whetherornotScotlandbecomesindependentfromthe UK hasenteredthe
straight– the poll will be heldon18 September –and pollsare indicatingaclose race,althoughit
seemsthe “No”vote has creptahead by53% to 47%.
Less thana weekago,the “Yes”vote had a slightleadbut,since then,heavydosesof grimreality
have hitthe campaignheadedbyScotland’sFirstMinister,AlexSalmond. Scotlandhasa provincial
parliamentandthe Scottish National Partyhada smashingvictoryinthe last2011 poll winning69
seatsof the 129-seat Parliament.Theypolledthen44% of the vote comparedto 26.3% forLabour,
12.4% forthe Conservatives,5.2%forthe Liberal Democrats,4.4% forthe Greenswitha further
7.7% for the others.
The trendingincrease inthe “Yes”vote – trending,thatis,until the mostrecentpoll - galvanised(or
isthat panicked?) the three majorpartyleaders –Prime MinisterandConservativePartyleader
DavidCameron,DeputyPrime MinisterandLiberal-DemocratleaderNickCleggandOpposition
Leaderand Labor leaderEdMillibank –to rush to Scotlandforseparate intense “Vote No”
campaigns.Inwhat wasan unprecedentedmove,CameronandMillibankagreedtocancel the
scheduled PrimeMinister’sQuestionsinthe House of Commonssotheycouldheadnorth.
That the three leadersshouldbe ona unityticketisunique;thatitshouldbe havingnotmuchof an
effectisremarkable.
Nowbigbusinessishavingitssayand theirdire predictionsshouldthe “Yes”vote prevailiscausing
seriousjitters.Scottishvotersmay – andmany do – regard politiciansasa self-servingmobbutwhen
businessleadersquite coldlyspell outwhatmighthappenshouldScotlandbecome independent,
theyare far more likelytotake notice. Businesspeopledotendtokeeptheirpromises –andtheir
threats.
The last surge inthe “Yes”vote wipedtwobillionpoundsoff the value of topScottishfirmsandthis
provokedbusinesstostartsoundingwarnings.
The CEO of the Scottishfinancial giant Standard LifeDavidNishdidn’tmince hiswordssaying, “There
continuesto be uncertaintyaround a rangeof issuesmaterial to Scotland’sfuturein theevent of
Scotland separating fromtheUnited Kingdom.”
Mr Nish’scompany– the thirdlargestprivate sectoremployerinEdinburgh –flaggedplansto
relocate significantportionsof itsbusiness –whichmeanslocal joblosses –to Englandif the “Yes”
vote triumphed.He isconcernedaboutwhatcurrencyan independentScotlandwouldhave,
whetherornot Scotlandwouldbe amemberof the EuropeanUnionand what wouldbe the
“arrangementsforfinancialservicesregulation” inan independentcountry.

2. Oil industryleaderandBPbossBob Dudleyalsourgeda“No” vote sayingthat NorthSeaoil would
be all but spentby2050 – a claimbackedby rival Shell –and that the oil explorationindustrywould
face an uncertainand probablydecliningfutureinanindependentcountry.
ScottishNational leaderAlex Salmondhasbeenmore orless claimingthatthe revenuean
independentScotlandwouldgetfromNorthSeaoil wouldfundaparadise onearthforeverforall
Scots andthat claimwas severelydentedwhenrespectedoilindustryfigure SirIanWoodalso
agreedthat the resource waslikely todryupby 2050. RegrettablyforMr Salmond,he ison the
publicrecordas praisingSirIan as beingthe industry’sforemostfigure.
Sir Ianaddedthat Scottishvoterswhowere consideringvoting“Yes”were thinkingwiththeirhearts
and notwiththeirheads.
One studyhas showndramaticallyhowvolatile NorthSeaoil isasrevenue forScotland –since
devolutionin1999; Scotland’srevenuefromoil hasfluctuatedbetween2billionpoundsand12
billionpounds –orfrom 2.5% to 8.3% of Scotland’sGrossDomesticProduct. It ishardlythe basisfor
a sustainable economicbase andsocial welfare benefits,particularlygiventhe Scottish
Government’sextravagantpromises.
The bad newsforthe “Yes”case justkeptcoming – the Governorof the Bankof England Mark
Carneysaida currency unionbetweenthe UKand an independentScotlandwouldbe “incompatible”
whichraisedfearsaboutwhatcurrency an independentScotlandwouldhave.Salmondhasbreezily
claimedthatthe poundwouldcontinue tobe usedafterindependence.
The giant bank Credit Suissewarnedthat a separate Scotlandwould face huge austerity,falling
wagesand wouldfall into “deep recession”.
It isbeginningtoappearas if Mr Salmondispreparedtosay anddo anythingtobolsterhiscase and
thisrisingsense of panicamongthe “Yes” proponentsisbecomingendemic.
WhenMr Salmondemergedfromanaudience withthe Queenrecently,he insistedthatshe would
be proud to reignoveranindependentScotlandandthisprovokedarare publicstatementfrom
BuckinghamPalace thatshe had deniedthisclaimandremainedstrictlyneutral inthe debate.
Whenthishitthe Scottishmedia –and got huge coverage – a speechbythe Queengiveninher
SilverJubilee Yearof 1977 was extensivelyquoted.Atthattime,the Queensaid, “...Icannotforget
thatI wascrowned Queen of the United Kingdomof Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Perhapsthis
jubilee is a time to remind ourselvesof the benefitswhich union hasconferred,athomeand in our
internationaldealings,on theinhabitantsof all partsof theUnited Kingdom.”
For the “No” case,that was a huge leg-up.Asithappens,the Queenwill be inScotlandforthe vote
and,if itis “Yes”it couldbe her lastvisitas monarch.

3. Accordingto a recentBBC analysisof the opinionpollstheyhave, “...revealed significantdifferences
between variousgroups: oldervotersaremuch more likely to opposeindependencethan younger
voters;women aremuch less supportivethan men and peopleliving in Scotland butborn outsideit
are less favourable.Thepollscertainly suggestthatthereal battleground in this campaign isamong
Labourvoters.Conservativesand LiberalDemocratsareoverwhelmingly opposed,butthereis
evidencethat a significantminorityof Labourvoterssupportit...”
Scotland’spopulationof almost5.4 millionisabout8% of the total UK populationof more than64
millionandsome 57,800 Scotsare employedinvariousUKGovernmentdepartmentsandagencies
includingthe militaryandthe BBC whichrepresentssome21.2% of the total workforce.InEngland,
only17% of the labourmarketis employedin thatcategory.
Scotland’scivil serviceemployeesmustbe wonderingif itisworththe leapintothe dark and risk
theirsecure well-paidjobswiththe UKGovernmenttobecome – possiblyorperhapshopefully –
employeesof anindependentScottishGovernment.The tendencyaroundthe westernworldwith
referendumsiswhenindoubtvote no;betterthe devil youknow andall of that.
Andan independentdetailedanalysisbythe UKGovernmenthasconcludedthat “High levels of
economicintegration between Scotland and theUKin particular flowsof goodsand services,labour
and capital,haveunderpinned Scotland’seconomicperformanceand helped reduceeconomic
volatility.
Justbefore he rushednorth,PMDavidCameronorderedthatthe Scottishsaltire – the Crossof St
AndrewScottishflag – be hoistedabove 10 DowningStreetasa gesture of solidarity.Ithada
somewhatinauspiciousstartwhenitfell downthe firsttimeworkmentriedtorunit upthe flagpole.
Thenagain,as many Scotsquipped,thatiswhat happenswhenEnglishpoliticianspretendtocare
aboutScotland.
But, thenagain,itwentup andstayedup the secondtime andthat couldwell be the moral of the
story.