John Appleby, Chief Economist at The King’s Fund, looks at UK and US health care spending projections and the share of our wealth we might want to devote to health care in the future.

1. Improving health care in London: who will take the lead?
The next 50 years: is the NHS
financially sustainable?
John Appleby
Chief Economist
The King’s Fund
July 18th 2012

2. US health care spending projections (per cent GDP): 2082
1%
99%

3. History of UK health care projections
‘Lost ‘ 1.5 ppt
of GDP on
health due to
impact of
financial
crisis?
2037:
Back to
where we
were in in
2010

5. What share of our wealth might we want to devote to health care in
the future?

6. Policy options and associated consequences
• Spend more, or the same?
• Where should the money come from?
• What do we get (should we expect) for our money?
• What is sustainable?
• What will be the impact on taxes, jobs, other
government/societal priorities?
• Implications for productivity and costs?
• ‘Rationing’/(more) explicit limited offer from the NHS?
• Policy neutral projections + policy ‘non-neutral’ too?

7. Thank you
John Appleby