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1. NIVEL DE COMPLEJIDAD
AÑO CABECERA MUNICIPAL
2010 7479
2014 10300
2018 11166
P2026 = 11166 +
11166 − 7479
2018 − 2014
∗ (2026 − 2018) = 18540 ℎ𝑎𝑏
P2036 = 11166 +
11166 − 7479
2018 − 2014
∗ (2036 − 2018) = 27758 ℎ𝑎𝑏
P2026 = 11166 +
11166 − 7479
2018 − 2014
∗ (2042 − 2018) = 33288 ℎ𝑎𝑏
En este caso utilizaremos el método geométrico para realizar la proyección de
la población.
Último censo (año)=2018
Último censo (población)= 11166
Se aplica la formula
𝑃𝐹 = 𝑃𝑢𝑐(1 + 𝑟)𝑇𝐹−𝑇𝑢𝑐
𝑟 = (
𝑃𝐹
𝑃𝑢𝑐
)
1
(𝑇𝐹−𝑇𝑢𝑐)
𝑟 = (
𝑃𝑢𝑐
𝑃𝑐𝑖
)
1
(𝑇𝑢𝑐−𝑇𝑐𝑖) − 1
𝑟 = (
11166
10300
)
1
(2018−2014) − 1=0.020
𝑃𝐹 = 11166 ∗ (1 + 0.020)(2042−2018)
=17960 hab
NIVEL DE COMPLEJIDAD= MEDIO ALTO,debido a que la
poblaciónse encuentra entre 12501-60000
Nivel de complejidad ejemplo

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Nivel de complejidad ejemplo

  • 1. 1. NIVEL DE COMPLEJIDAD AÑO CABECERA MUNICIPAL 2010 7479 2014 10300 2018 11166 P2026 = 11166 + 11166 − 7479 2018 − 2014 ∗ (2026 − 2018) = 18540 ℎ𝑎𝑏 P2036 = 11166 + 11166 − 7479 2018 − 2014 ∗ (2036 − 2018) = 27758 ℎ𝑎𝑏 P2026 = 11166 + 11166 − 7479 2018 − 2014 ∗ (2042 − 2018) = 33288 ℎ𝑎𝑏 En este caso utilizaremos el método geométrico para realizar la proyección de la población. Último censo (año)=2018 Último censo (población)= 11166 Se aplica la formula 𝑃𝐹 = 𝑃𝑢𝑐(1 + 𝑟)𝑇𝐹−𝑇𝑢𝑐 𝑟 = ( 𝑃𝐹 𝑃𝑢𝑐 ) 1 (𝑇𝐹−𝑇𝑢𝑐) 𝑟 = ( 𝑃𝑢𝑐 𝑃𝑐𝑖 ) 1 (𝑇𝑢𝑐−𝑇𝑐𝑖) − 1 𝑟 = ( 11166 10300 ) 1 (2018−2014) − 1=0.020 𝑃𝐹 = 11166 ∗ (1 + 0.020)(2042−2018) =17960 hab NIVEL DE COMPLEJIDAD= MEDIO ALTO,debido a que la poblaciónse encuentra entre 12501-60000