This document summarizes the key aspects of Ukraine's energy system and forecasts for future energy demand and production. It discusses Ukraine's advantages and disadvantages in energy resources and infrastructure. It forecasts that primary energy consumption in Ukraine will increase to 302.7 million tons of standard fuel by 2030, while achieving significant energy savings through structural and technological improvements. Electricity generation is projected to grow to 420.1 billion kWh by 2030, relying increasingly on coal, nuclear, and renewable sources over time.

1. Erasmus Mundus Action 4 project
“Promoting European Education in Sustainable Development”
TEMPUS Joint European Project_ 25163_ 2004
“Bridging the gap between University and businesses”
Ukrainian Energy System
Professor Eugene Nikiforovich
Head of Department Institute of Hydromechanics
National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
National Technical University of Ukraine “KPI”
Course SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
NTUU “KPI”, 12-23 February 2007

2. Content
• Foreword: Towards a sustainable energy future
• Modern tendencies in the energy system development:
Hydrogen Economy
• Ukraine’s Positioning on the International Energy
Markets
• Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s Fuel-
and-Energy Demand
• Electric Power Balance
• Conclusions

3. Hydrogen Economy)

4. Solar-Hydrogen Energy Cycle

5. Ukraine’s Positioning on the International
Energy Markets
Disadvantages:
• shortage of explored reserves of domestic natural gas and oil, and of
nuclear fuel of domestic production;
• no diversification of the energy supply sources;
• domestic hydropower generation capacities have neared the end of their
potential;
• high technogenic burden on the environment;
• unsatisfactory technical condition of some energy facilities, including energy
transportation systems.
Advantages:
• sufficient natural reserves of coal and nuclear fuel components, such as
uranium and zirconium;
• excessive capacities for oil-and-gas transportation, and electric power
exports;
• advantageous geographical and geopolitical position of the country;
• well-developed energy infrastructure;
• highly-skilled human resources.

6. Overview of Primary Energy Resources Utilization
and Energy Consumption by End Users
Indices of Energy Dependence for Ukraine and Other
Countries, in 2000 - 2004, (%)
90,0 97,9
80,1 82,1
68,9 74,3 64,7
71,6
61,4 57,7 60,7
50,0 55,9
35,9 34,1 33,3
26,5 23,8
11,6
-27,2 -8,9
Germany
Sweden
Greece
Italy
Austria
Hungary
Ukraine
Denmark
France
Ireland
Netherlands
Czechia
Estonia
Spain
Romania
Poland
Belgium
Finland
England
Luxemburg
Portugal

7. Primary Energy Consumption Pattern: Ukraine,
EU-15, the U.S.A. and the global average
Global Ukraine EU-15 U.S.A.
average
Natural gas 21% 41% 22% 24%
Oil 35% 19% 41% 38%
Coal 23% 19% 16% 23%
Uranium 7% 17% 15% 8%
Hydro- and other renewable
energy sources 14% 4% 6% 7%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

8. Specific Annual Primary Energy Consumption in
the World, tons of standard fuel per capita
(source: International Energy Agency)
The energy supply level of a country is normally described by a specific primary
energy consumption rate expressed in tons of standard fuel per capita
1990 2000 2005
15,6 The U.S. 14,2 15,5 15,6
Japan 5,2 6,2 6,3
EU 15 states 5,7 6,2 6,4
China 0,8 1,0 1,2
India 0,3 0,5 0,5
6,3 6,4 6,2 Turkey 1,3 1,6 1,8
4,3
3,6 Eastern Europe
ЄвропаЄвропа
4,6 3,4 3,6
1,2 1,8 CIS 7,5 5,1 6,2
0,5 Ukraine 7,1 3,7 4,3
T u rkey
T h e U .S.
E U -15
C h in a
In d ia
Eu ro p e
U krain e
C IS
Jap an
Eastern

9. Specific Annual Power Consumption in the World
and Ukraine, in kWh per capita
(source: International Energy Agency)
the overall technological level of a country is indirectly characterized by a
specific power consumption rate that is expressed in kWh per capita
12792
2005
7727
6813
4731
3458 3789
1170 1592
485
Turkey
Japan
Eastern
U.S.
EU-15
China
India
Ukraine
CIS
Europe

10. GDP Energy Content in the World, kg of standard
fuel per USD
(source: Key World Energy Statistics, 2003, 2004)
Overall fuel-and-energy efficiency of an economy is normally described
by a primary energy consumption to GDP ratio (that is known as a
GDP energy content)
0,89
0,84
0,50
0,43 0,43
0,40 0,39
0,36 0,34 0,34 0,34
0,33 0,33
0,30
0,26 0,26 0,24 0,26 0,24
0,23
0,20 0,20
Sweden
Czechia
Canada
Austria
France
Spain
Finland
Poland
Lithuania
Ukraine
Russia
Australia
China
Japan
Denmark
Turkey
Belarus
U.S.
U.K.
Global average
Germany
Hungary

11. Forecasted Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine’s
Fuel-and-Energy Demand
Forecast for GDP Growth Rates, UAH billion (price base of 2005)
1792,3
Best Case
1700
UAH billion (price base of 2005)
Base Case
1397,2
1400 Worst Case 1286,2
1059,3 1056,9
1100
791,9
677,7 852,4
800 575,1 929,4
523,7 809,8
691,5
500 413,9* 582,5
476,2
200
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

12. Forecasted Consumption of Primary Energy and
the Structural and Technological Energy Saving
Indices for the Period until 2030, mln tons of
standard fuel (Base Case Scenario)
Structural energy saving
Technological energy saving
Consumption of primary energy 120,3
54,4 198,1
25,3
137,5
7,9 109,8
66,4
302,7
227,0 244,3
200,6 213,8
2005* 2010 2015 2020 2030

14. Ukraine Power Industry
• Installed capacity of electric power
• Electric power production by EPS
• Main power generating capacities
• Electric power consumption
• Structure of power resources in electric
power and heat production by EPS
• NPS of Ukraine
• Electric Power Balance

23. Forecast of Electric Power Consumption by Consumer Groups (million kW/hour)
169825
2005 2030
91793 93239
50358
31900
26444 25035
21040
12893 15296
10095 9235
3426 5750 4707
948
Industry Agricultural Transport Construction Communal Other non- Population Pow er
sector sector sector and industrial consumed for
household consumers its
consumers transmission
through
networks

24. Structure of Generating Capacity of Ukrainian Power
Plants
(base-case scenario)
Local
plants and Local
othe r plants and
facilities other NPP
3.4 facilities 29.5
6.5% NPP 6.3 33.3%
13.8 7.1%
26.6%
HPP and TPP and
TPP and
HPSP CHPP
CHPP 42.2 HPP and
4.7
30.1 47.6% HPSP
9.1%
57.8% 10.5
11.9%
2005 2030

25. Development of Electric Power Generation (billion
kWh)
450
420,1
TPP and CHPP
400 NPP 167,0
HPP and HPSP 39,8%
350 Local plants and other sources
307,0
300
118,6
251,0
billion kWh
250
210,2 114,4 219,0
185,2
200 86,6
52,1%
75,5 158,9
150
40,8%
110,5
101,2
100 88,8
47,9%
50
14,6 16,6 18,6
12,3 12,5
8,6 9,9 11,6 12,9 15,5
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

26. Basic Indices of the Development of Electric Power
Industry of Ukraine for the Period until 2030
Indicators 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
185236 210200 251000 307000 420100
А. Power supply, total ((billion kWh)
I.I. Power generation, total 185236 210200 251000 307000 420100
Growth rate to the last period (%), including: - 13,5% 19,4% 22,3% 36,8%
1). General-purpose power plants, including: 176592 200290 239450 294100 404600
А). Thermal and Combined Heat-and-power Plants 75515 86590 114350 118600 167000
(TPP and CHPP), percentage in total generation 40,8% 41,2% 45,6% 38,6% 39,8%
Б). Hydropower plants (HPP)* 12128 10300 11400 12700 14100
percentage in total generation 6,5% 4,9% 4,5% 4,1% 3,4%
В). Hydroelectric pumped storage plants (HPSP) 193 2200 3200 3900 4500
percentage in total generation 0,1% 1,0% 1,3% 1,3% 1,1%
Г). Nuclear power plants (NPP) 88756 101200 110500 158900 219000
percentage in total generation 47,9% 48,1% 44,0% 51,8% 52,1%
2). Local power plants and other sources, 8644 9910 11550 12900 15500
percentage in total generation, including: 4,7% 4,7% 4,6% 4,2% 3,7%
А). Local power plants** 8593 9775 10665 11300 13400
Б). Power generation capacities using renewable energy sources (except small HPP) 51 135 885 1600 2100
including: other local sources of power 43 85 85 100 100
II. Electric power imports 0 0 0 0 0

27. Forecasted Fuel Balance for TPPs, CHPPs and Local
Generating Plants (taking account of local sources)
until 2030 (million tons of standard fuel).
2005 2030
Coal Coal
19.2 59.4
51.8% 85.1%
Gas Gas
Fuel oil Gas
17.6 Fuel oil
Fuel oil
0.3 10.1
10,1
47.4% 0.3
0,3
0.8% 14.5%
14,5% 0.4%
0,4%

28. Conclusions
• To ensure forecasted economic and social development of the country until
2030 according to the base-case scenario it is envisaged to increase
electricity generation from 185.2 billion kWh in 2005 to 420.1 billion kWh in
2030, heat generation from 241.0 million Gcal to 430.9 million Gcal
correspondingly.
• The volume of fuel imported for electricity and heat generation by power
plants is planned to be reduced from 41.4 million tons of standard fuel in
2005 to 12.4 million tons of standard fuel in 2030.
• Due to application of the modern technologies of coal combustion, use of
new equipment for purification of emissions from TPPs, as well as further
development of renewable resources of energy, technogenic burden on the
environment will be reduced substantially.

29. The implementation of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine under the base-case scenario of
economic development guarantees the fulfillment of tasks and resolving the problems of the
fuel and energy complex, the major ones being identified as follows:
• Ensuring reliable and quality supply of energy products to the national economy and
population, enhancing economic efficiency and environmental safety based on the introduction
of advanced technologies in process of upgrading, reconstruction and construction of energy
facilities;
• Reducing GDP energy content from 0.48 kg of standard fuel/UAH registered in 2005 to
0.24 kg of standard fuel/UAH in 2030 (that is, by factor of two), due to structural and
technological energy saving;
0,6
0,48
0,5
0,37
kg sf/UAH
0,4 0,31 0,28
0,3 0,24
0,2
0,1
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2030
• Optimizing the electricity generation structure by types of fuel keeping the following
proportions: nuclear power plants – 52.1%, thermal power plants, combined heat and power
plants, industrial plants – 42.9%, other types of power generation – 5.0%. Such electricity
generation proportions will ensure economically effective operation of power plants and create
conditions for regulation and stable operation of the United Energy System of Ukraine;