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Mortgage Bankers Association CEO David Stevens Interview
The document discusses the outlook for mortgage rates and housing market trends from 2012 to 2014, highlighting GDP growth, inflation rates, and unemployment forecasts. It emphasizes the role of minorities and foreign-born individuals in driving household growth, while noting a trend of tightening credit for lower-income buyers. The document also outlines legislative options for GSE reform, stressing the importance of proactive measures to shape the future of the mortgage finance system.
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Mortgage Bankers Association CEO David Stevens Interview
- 1. 1 August 13, 2013 DavidH. Stevens President & CEO Mortgage Bankers Association
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- 3. 3 Outlook for 2013and 2014 2012 2013 2014 GDP Growth 1.7% 1.8% 2.5% Inflation 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% Unemployment 8.1% 7.5% 7.0% Fed Funds 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 10-year Treasury 1.8% 2.3% 3.0% 30-year Mortgage 3.7% 4.1% 5.0% Refi originations ($ B) 1,247 983 388 Purchase originations ($B) 503 589 703 New Home sales (thousand) 364 457 492 Existing home Sales (thousand) 4,634 5,043 5,389 Source: MBA July 2013 Forecast
- 4. 4 Estimated Originations 1990to 2014: SF Market Source: MBA – July 2013 Mortgage Finance Forecast
- 5. 5 Recovery in HouseholdGrowth Has Only Just Begun 5 Foreign Born
- 6. 6 Minorities Will DriveHousehold Growth Sources: JCHS 2010 Household Growth Projections and US Census Bureau, 2011 ACS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ACS 2011 Hispanic Asian/ Other Black, Non Hispanic White, Non Hispanic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% JCHSLow Projection Household Growth, 2010-20Households
- 7. 7 Wahington View: RoleOversized & Outdated 1ST Loss Position
- 8. 8 Piling On Real EstateFinance System Compliance Rule Making Coker-Warner Hensarling FHA Solvency The Federal Reserve QE3 Basel IIIGSE Reform
- 9. 9 HMDA Data for2011 Shows Net Exit From the Business 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Number of Institutions Reporting HMDA Data Source: FFIEC
- 10. 10 Credit Expanding OnHigh End – Shrinking On Low Source: MBA MPMA Jan-Jun 2013 versus 2012 Purchase Tranche Analysis 2013 shares 2012 Shares YTD Change YoY 2013_2012 <=150K 35.9% 40.6% -1.7% >150K and<=300 37.0% 36.7% 12.1% >300K and<=417k 14.7% 13.2% 24.0% >417K and<=625k 6.7% 5.3% 40.2% >625K and <=729k 1.9% 1.4% 51.8% >729K 3.9% 2.8% 57.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11.4%
- 11. 11 Retail Apps perUnderwriter per Month
- 12. 12 Broad Access toCredit “The pendulum has swung too far the other way.” ~Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, November 2012 “The average FICO score for denied applications in 2012 was 733 and the average LTV for denied applications was 81%.” ~Ellie Mae, January 2013 “Credit is achingly tight.” ~CFPB Director Richard Cordray, January 2013 Upon release of the Ability to Pay Rule “Too many families with solid credit who want to buy a home are being rejected.” ~President Obama State of the Union Address, January 2013
- 13. 13 Seat at theTable
- 14. 14 1. Privatize andRecapitalize •Shareholder Path 2. Receivership and Liquidation •Hensarling 3. Shut Down and Replace •Corker Warner •BPC •President •MBA Options Being Discussed
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- 16. 16 MBA’s Key Stepsto GSE Reform
- 17. 17 Why Now –Control Our Destiny • Legislation Will Overtake Us • G-Fee Tinkering • Congress • FHFA • Transparency • Competition • Appeals To ALL Outcomes • Proactive – Not Head In The Sand • No Legislation Required • Fills In The White Board
- 18. 18 Lead – Follow– Get Out Of The Way Let’s Choose To Lead
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