Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050
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Scenarios about the future of tourism in New Zealand set in 2050. From the www.tourism2050.com project
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Scenarios for the Future of Tourism in New Zealand: 2050
- 1. Tourism 2050: Scenarios, Change, Tourists and a Wee Bit of Science Ficton Dr. Ian Yeoman Victoria University of Wellington.
- 2. Future Maker • Understanding the implications of long term change which goes beyond the present understanding found in the New Zealand Tourism Strategy 2015 • The construction of scenarios about the future and position of tourism in New Zealand to 2050 in order to develop new order, thinking and strategic directions • Funded by Ministries of Economic Development and the Science and Innovation • Parallel project on climate change (Lincoln University) and aviation (Otago University) • www.tourism2050.com
- 3. The World in 2050 Resources Wealth Technology
- 4. Wealth 4
- 5. 5 Changing Markets Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1 38646 India 5.9 15384 Japan 1.1 6216 Brazil 4.1 6020 Mexico 4.3 5709 United Kingdom 2.1 4997 Germany 1.4 4535 France 2.1 4528 Russia 3.3 4297 Turkey 4.4 3536 Canada 2.6 3154 Indonesia 4.8 2975 Korea 2.5 2818 Italy 1.3 2580 Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419 Australia 2.9 2257 South Africa 4.3 1919 Argentina 4.1 1267 Dadush & Stancil 2010
- 6. 6 Changing Markets Average Annual GDP Growth Real GDP in 2050 at 2005 US $ Prices China 5.6 46265 USA 2.1 38646 India 5.9 15384 Japan 1.1 6216 Brazil 4.1 6020 Mexico 4.3 5709 United Kingdom 2.1 4997 Germany 1.4 4535 France 2.1 4528 Russia 3.3 4297 Turkey 4.4 3536 Canada 2.6 3154 Indonesia 4.8 2975 Korea 2.5 2818 Italy 1.3 2580 Saudi Arabia 4.8 2419 Australia 2.9 2257 South Africa 4.3 1919 Argentina 4.1 1267 Dadush & Stancil 2010
- 7. Net Gen by Population 7 Country % of total population under 25 Growth in under-25 population since 1980 India 52 46 China 38 -9 United States 35 11 Brazil 47 22 Mexico 49 14 Russia 32 -15 Japan 25 -27 Germany 26 -20 France 31 -7 UK 31 -10 Spain 27 -27 Canada 31 -4 Source: UN 2009
- 8. Net Gen by Population 8 Country % of total population under 25 Growth in under-25 population since 1980 India 52 46 China 38 -9 United States 35 11 Brazil 47 22 Mexico 49 14 Russia 32 -15 Japan 25 -27 Germany 26 -20 France 31 -7 UK 31 -10 Spain 27 -27 Canada 31 -4 Source: UN 2009
- 9. The generation effect Source: Understanding Society (British Household Panel Survey)/nVision/Labour Force Survey | Base: 14,103 respondents aged 16+, GB, 2009 Year homeowners bought their current home, by age of head of household By the early 10s, a third of 16-17s and nearly a fifth of 18-24s are unemployed. The overall rate is around 8%. ILO unemployment rates by age, seasonally adjusted rates As the majority of over-50s became homeowners before 2001, they have retained much of the equity growth they enjoyed due to the boom. The great polarisation of wealth
- 10. Technology
- 11. Google Glasses
- 12. Google Glasses
- 15. Scientists at the University of Washington have been developing a contact lens containing one built-in LED, powered wirelessly with radio frequency waves, facial recognition systems etc.
- 16. Resources
- 17. Source: Krumdiek et al, (2010), Becken (2010)
- 19. Sustainable Hotel Design Sustainable architecture seeks to minimize the negative environmental impact of buildings by enhancing efficiency and moderation in the use of materials, energy, and development space. 19 Photo: Inter Continental Songjiang Resort
- 20. Too summarise… • The world faces a scramble for resources based upon known technologies and forecasts but humankind is adaptive • More older and less young people • Shifting wealth patterns • Future technologies are the realm of science fiction ……..But is depends on how we behave, is it a co- operative or rivalries’ world
- 21. Scenario Matrix Resource Scarcity Adaptive Resource Use Rivalry Reciprocity Scenario 4 The State of China: A World of New Consumers with a Fluid Identity Scenario 3 A Perfect Storm: The Health Tourist Scenario 2 An Eco Paradise: A World of Collective Individualism SpectrumofSocietalBehaviors Resource Use Scenario 1 Manaakitanga: Welcome to New Zealand
- 22. Manaakitanga: •How a suppressive society can only be tolerated for limited time before rebellion occurs •The importance of strong governance •Shifting geo politics •Protecting indigenous culture and national identity •Sustainability •Extended families, VFR and the concept of whanau State of China •A capitalist society based upon increased wealth, prosperity and competition •Technological innovation such as 3D printing and claytronics change the supply chain •New Zealand is a competitive market place and strong brand •The beginnings of hypersonic travel •Tourist consumption based upon a fluid identity Perfect Storm: •World economic morbidity and ineffective government •New Zealand outlook is about protecting itself from the volatility of the world •The role of tourism is positioned as a health driver because of ageing populations •Frugality, simplicity and mercurial consumption An Eco Paradise:. •The worlds middle classes are being squeezed as resources become scarce •Priority and incentive for resource substitution •The kiwi psyche is green •New Zealand economy is strong because of natural resources and specialisation •Exclusivity and tourism access not a right
- 23. Perfect Storm: (Health and Well Being) State of China (Individualism) An Eco Paradise (The Exclusivity) Manaakitanga: (Families)
- 24. The multigenerational, or vertical, family Source: Michael Young, The Future Foundation/nVision The modern family is a widening spread of connections up and down the ages. And the contraction of the sibling population is to some extent compensated by the swell in the number of step-relatives, especially in North America and Western Europe. Having found that ever more customers were wishing to holiday with both children and grandparents together, Eurocamp began waiving the adult fee for grandparents who shared the same accommodation as the rest of their family.
- 25. Democratic families : most prevalent in the BRIC nations and South Korea Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country (**GB is 5000) aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010 “In my family children have a say in important family spending decisions”
- 26. 26 Democratic families : most prevalent in the BRIC nations and South Korea Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country (**GB is 5000) aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010 “In my family children have a say in important family spending decisions”
- 28. The psychology of family heritage : a force which globally underpins the perceived value of the family unit
- 29. Exclusivity
- 30. Inconspicuous Consumption Consumers in the West are moving away from ostentatious consumption as a way to acquire or affirm social status. In turn, quietly expressed savoir- vivre is becoming the default setting.
- 31. “Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.” % who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions). Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011 Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages
- 32. “Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.” % who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions). Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011 Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages
- 33. “Please say which of the following things would be the best description of ‘luxury’ in your life.” % who selected a materialistic, experiential or time option (see notes for definitions). Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2011 Differences in the meaning of luxury for different ages
- 34. Authenti-seeking As much as global consumers continue to embrace the convenience and reliability delivered by globalised mass production, they also aspire to an alternative to the perceived homogenisation of contemporary culture, food and leisure experiences. The consumer’s search for the “real” - which we define as Authenti-seeking - has a number of implications for consumer-facing sectors : from the way companies package and market their offers to how they interact with their customer base.
- 35. Health and Well Being
- 36. 38
- 37. Early Life: Growth and Development Adult Maintaining highest possible level of function Disability threshold Older Age Maintaining independence and Preventing disability Range of functions in individuals Age Functionalityofcapacity Rehabilitation and ensuring the quality of life Maintaining Functional Capacity Over the Course of Life
- 38. 40
- 39. Individuality The UK consumer, on average change their hair style every 18 months (Yeoman 2008)
- 40. Fluid identity
- 41. The strive for creativity : strongest in the BRIC nations Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010 “Some of the things people have told us they are concerned about are listed here. Please say which of the following items you personally are concerned about. Being a creative person”. % who are concerned, by country
- 42. The strive for creativity : strongest in the BRIC nations Source: nVision Research | Base: 800-4,000 online respondents per country aged 16-64 (*China is 16-54), 2010 “Some of the things people have told us they are concerned about are listed here. Please say which of the following items you personally are concerned about. Being a creative person”. % who are concerned, by country
- 43. Affluence Rising income has been the driving agent of modern society and is responsible for creating the demanding, sophisticated and well-informed consumer we recognise today. Wealth is the core driver for the propensity to travel in all markets
- 44. The transition of changing values
- 47. Source: Visa Global Travel Intentions Survey/nVision | Base: 11,620 respondents in 23 countries aged 18+, 2011 Visa Global Survey: Key influences on the choice of travel destination, global average Mean score on a five point scale where 5 = will influence my decision strongly and 1 = will not influence my decision at all | See notes for details of countries covered and methodology
- 48. The era of procrastination, of half- measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences… Winston Churchill 1936 or has it
- 49. References – Books • Yeoman, I. (2012) 2050: Tomorrows Tourism, Channelview, Bristol. • Schanzel, H. Yeoman, I. Backer, E (2012) Family Tourism, Channelview, Bristol. • Yeoman, I et al (2011) Tourism and Demography. Goodfellows, Oxford. • Yeoman, I & Future Foundation (2013) 2040: Tomorrows Tourist. Forthcoming – Websites. • www.tomorrowstourist.com • www.tourism2050.com – Data • www.futurefoundation.net
- 50. Contact Dr. Ian Yeoman Victoria University of Wellington Tel: 04 463 5717 Email: ian.yeoman@vuw.ac.nz Project website: www.tourism2050.com
Editor's Notes
- Drivers explained: What will the world look like in 2050? The key drivers are wealth , which is linked to demography and measured as GDP and wealth per capita; technology which manifests itself as the pace of change and resources which is shaped by climate change and the subsequent impact on landscapes, access to water and food..and nearly everything else. In addition this presentation concludes with a number of risks .
- Driver explained: The economy of the G20 (Dadash & Stancil 2010) is expected to grow at average annual rate of 3.5%, rising from US $ 160.0 trillion in 2050 in real dollar terms, over 60% of this US $121 trillion dollar expansion will come from six countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia and Mexico (BRICIM). US $ GDP in these six economies will grow at an average rate of 6% per year; their share of of G20 GDP will rise from 19.6 % in 2009 to 50.6% in 2050. By contrast, GDP in the G7 will grow by less than 2.1 % annually, and their share of G20 GDP will decline from 72.3 % to 40.5, In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the shift is even greater. Currently, the G7 claims more than half of G20 GDP compared to approximately one third in the BRICIM; in 2050, the BRICIM economies will be over twice as large as the G7. China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050, with a total real U.S. $ GDP of 70 percent more than the GDP of all the other G20 countries combined. In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion, the current size of the world economy. However, the wide disparity in per capita GDP will remain. The four largest countries in Europe are expected to grow by only 1.5 percent annually as Europe’s share of G20 GDP shrinks from 24 percent in 2009 to 10percent in 2050 After nearly a century as the world’s preeminent economic power, the United States is projected to relinquish this title to China in 2032. Fundamentally, economic power is shifting South and East. Alternatively, according to Dadash and Stancil (2010) a less favourable scenario is possible. This includes a breakout of trade protectionism—which will slow the diffusion of pre existing technologies into developing countries and reduce competitive innovation around the globe can be assumed to lower technical factor progress growth by 25 percent in advanced countries and 35 percent in developing economies. References: Dadash, U & Stancil, B (2010) The World order in 2050. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . Accessed on the 10 th April at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/The_World_Order_in_2050.pdf
- Driver explained: The economy of the G20 (Dadash & Stancil 2010) is expected to grow at average annual rate of 3.5%, rising from US $ 160.0 trillion in 2050 in real dollar terms, over 60% of this US $121 trillion dollar expansion will come from six countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia and Mexico (BRICIM). US $ GDP in these six economies will grow at an average rate of 6% per year; their share of of G20 GDP will rise from 19.6 % in 2009 to 50.6% in 2050. By contrast, GDP in the G7 will grow by less than 2.1 % annually, and their share of G20 GDP will decline from 72.3 % to 40.5, In purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the shift is even greater. Currently, the G7 claims more than half of G20 GDP compared to approximately one third in the BRICIM; in 2050, the BRICIM economies will be over twice as large as the G7. China, India, and the United States will emerge as the world’s three largest economies in 2050, with a total real U.S. $ GDP of 70 percent more than the GDP of all the other G20 countries combined. In China and India alone, GDP is predicted to increase by nearly $60 trillion, the current size of the world economy. However, the wide disparity in per capita GDP will remain. The four largest countries in Europe are expected to grow by only 1.5 percent annually as Europe’s share of G20 GDP shrinks from 24 percent in 2009 to 10percent in 2050 After nearly a century as the world’s preeminent economic power, the United States is projected to relinquish this title to China in 2032. Fundamentally, economic power is shifting South and East. Alternatively, according to Dadash and Stancil (2010) a less favourable scenario is possible. This includes a breakout of trade protectionism—which will slow the diffusion of pre existing technologies into developing countries and reduce competitive innovation around the globe can be assumed to lower technical factor progress growth by 25 percent in advanced countries and 35 percent in developing economies. References: Dadash, U & Stancil, B (2010) The World order in 2050. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . Accessed on the 10 th April at http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/The_World_Order_in_2050.pdf
- 1.4 The generation effect Attempting to segment consumers by generation has long since been a popular consumer market technique based on the theory that those born at a particular time can carry forward a similar set of lasting values, having shared similar experiences and opportunities. Some of the most frequently studied generations include the Baby Boomers, Generation X, the Millennials/Gen Y, Gen Z. Sometimes it does indeed seem sensible to look at a consumer group as a distinct generation. Many commentators point to the Baby Boomers - those born roughly between 1946 and the mid 1960s - as a cohort who have benefited particularly well from generally benign macro-economic conditions. As the majority of over-50s became homeowners before 2001, they retain much of the substantial equity growth they enjoyed due to the boom. In contrast, 82% of homeowners under 50 bought their home after 2001 and have clearly not profited in the way their parents may well have done. Elsewhere, many individuals who form part of the generation of twenty-thirty-somethings , commonly referred to as Generation Y or the Millennial Generation, are currently suffering from various financial pressures that previous generations did not face at their age. A combination of student debt, high house prices and a challenging employment environment have left many young adults still dependent on parents for financial support - a phenomenon which is also shifting new burdens onto older generations. While it could be argued that a generation’s shared experience and circumstance - the contingent exposure to boom or bust, social conservatism or cultural upheaval - really do encourage long lasting behaviours or a particular style of living, we would posit that attitudes across generations quite easily flex and bend with the times. Further, we expect that the trend we know as the Ageless Society will encourage older cohorts in particular to feel less constrained by any assumed limits of their generation (such as lack of technological know-how).
- Explanation: Scenario Matrix Explained: Vertical Axis: Horizontal Axis: A resource use axis refers to any physical or virtual entity of limited availability that needs to be consumed to obtain a benefit from it, the importance of this driver is how it is used? Scarcity of resources refers to the fundamental economic problem of having seemingly unlimited human needs and wants in a world of limited resources. Basically, a situation in which society has insufficient resources to fulfil all human wants and needs. Adaptive resource use refers to a state of behaviour’s used to adjust to another type of behaviour or situation. In the terms of resource use finding new solutions or changing the way we do things.
- Please contact your account manager for more information about the survey methodology in individual countries.
- Please contact your account manager for more information about the survey methodology in individual countries.
- 3.6 Luxury Preferences One of the most dynamic commercial questions for the forecaster is : what is the definition, now and tomorrow, of luxury. For Western European societies, it would generally be axiomatic that as incomes rise (and educational levels with them), so our collective taste for luxury as life-enriching experience as opposed to opulent possession-gathering will naturally swell. Of course, both aspects can grow in significance. Income growth, obviously, allows many more to enjoy/expect crisp Burgundy with delicatessen food and many more too to visit a temporary Picasso exhibition in London or fly long-haul to visit Alice Springs and Uluru. For many in certain lifestage moments, simply free, unencumbered time will be luxury itself. Our trended analysis would tend to confirm that, as one ages, the appetite for what we call materialistic goods dwindles; luxury is more likely to be sought in other places. Naturally, for those consumers who are younger and/or whose buying power is not advanced, the luxury appetite tends to alight still on goods at once conventional and tangible. A small villa with a shared pool in summertime Alicante will still be a most emphatic slap of luxury for many in the UK. But the cynosure of quality experience, perhaps where the service enjoyed is a deluxe as any specific product, will continue to throw many opportunities open to brands in the leisure, cultural and entertainment trades. Key Materialistic : “Driving an expensive/nice car”, “Enjoying the best home entertainment technology”, “Wearing designer/nice clothes”, “Having beautiful/nice home furnishings”. Experiential : “Eating good quality food”, “Going on expensive/nice holidays”, “Living in a nice area”, “Having toiletries and pampering myself”. Time : “Having time on my own”, “Having time just to relax”.
- 3.6 Luxury Preferences One of the most dynamic commercial questions for the forecaster is : what is the definition, now and tomorrow, of luxury. For Western European societies, it would generally be axiomatic that as incomes rise (and educational levels with them), so our collective taste for luxury as life-enriching experience as opposed to opulent possession-gathering will naturally swell. Of course, both aspects can grow in significance. Income growth, obviously, allows many more to enjoy/expect crisp Burgundy with delicatessen food and many more too to visit a temporary Picasso exhibition in London or fly long-haul to visit Alice Springs and Uluru. For many in certain lifestage moments, simply free, unencumbered time will be luxury itself. Our trended analysis would tend to confirm that, as one ages, the appetite for what we call materialistic goods dwindles; luxury is more likely to be sought in other places. Naturally, for those consumers who are younger and/or whose buying power is not advanced, the luxury appetite tends to alight still on goods at once conventional and tangible. A small villa with a shared pool in summertime Alicante will still be a most emphatic slap of luxury for many in the UK. But the cynosure of quality experience, perhaps where the service enjoyed is a deluxe as any specific product, will continue to throw many opportunities open to brands in the leisure, cultural and entertainment trades. Key Materialistic : “Driving an expensive/nice car”, “Enjoying the best home entertainment technology”, “Wearing designer/nice clothes”, “Having beautiful/nice home furnishings”. Experiential : “Eating good quality food”, “Going on expensive/nice holidays”, “Living in a nice area”, “Having toiletries and pampering myself”. Time : “Having time on my own”, “Having time just to relax”.
- 3.6 Luxury Preferences One of the most dynamic commercial questions for the forecaster is : what is the definition, now and tomorrow, of luxury. For Western European societies, it would generally be axiomatic that as incomes rise (and educational levels with them), so our collective taste for luxury as life-enriching experience as opposed to opulent possession-gathering will naturally swell. Of course, both aspects can grow in significance. Income growth, obviously, allows many more to enjoy/expect crisp Burgundy with delicatessen food and many more too to visit a temporary Picasso exhibition in London or fly long-haul to visit Alice Springs and Uluru. For many in certain lifestage moments, simply free, unencumbered time will be luxury itself. Our trended analysis would tend to confirm that, as one ages, the appetite for what we call materialistic goods dwindles; luxury is more likely to be sought in other places. Naturally, for those consumers who are younger and/or whose buying power is not advanced, the luxury appetite tends to alight still on goods at once conventional and tangible. A small villa with a shared pool in summertime Alicante will still be a most emphatic slap of luxury for many in the UK. But the cynosure of quality experience, perhaps where the service enjoyed is a deluxe as any specific product, will continue to throw many opportunities open to brands in the leisure, cultural and entertainment trades. Key Materialistic : “Driving an expensive/nice car”, “Enjoying the best home entertainment technology”, “Wearing designer/nice clothes”, “Having beautiful/nice home furnishings”. Experiential : “Eating good quality food”, “Going on expensive/nice holidays”, “Living in a nice area”, “Having toiletries and pampering myself”. Time : “Having time on my own”, “Having time just to relax”.
- 1.4 Women in the workforce According to ONS data, the age for first marriages has risen consistently since 1993, to the current average of about 30 years for women and 32 for men. This implies that a number of well-qualified young women are continuing to career-build well into their 30s and waiting till later before confounding their singleton status by having a child. There are now around 30,000 babies born each year to mothers over 40 in the UK compared to less than 10,000 in 1989. The oldest new mum in the UK so far is 66 years of age. Obviously, many such women will be cohabiting and controlling their own fertility until the moment is good for them. Over the last decade, the number of lone parents (preponderantly women) has increased by about 500,000 to reach 3 million (a figure to be set in the context of the 18m families which constitute the UK). Interestingly, National Statistics also inform that the number of cohabitors increased over the same period from 2.0m to 2.8m. One has the sense that there is a generous spread of lifestyle options and lifestage alternatives for many women now. Of course, many will marry in their 20s and start a family on the same timescale that their grandparents used. But this is less of a norm than ever.
- Picture (Creative Commons Flickr) : vauvau
- The Visa Global Travel Intentions Survey was conducted in March 2011 among 11,620 travellers from 23 countries and territories across the Americas (Brazil, Canada, Mexico, USA), Europe, Middle East and Africa (Croatia, Egypt, Germany, Morocco, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates and the UK), and Asia Pacific (Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand). Owing to the low internet penetration and poor internet connectivity in certain markets a mix of online and offline data collection methodologies were used. The sample size for each country was a minimum of 500 respondents. Respondents were those who had travelled internationally for leisure in the last two years or who intend to do so in the next two years.