The Geo-Political situation with strong economic underpinnings are changing the alliance dynamic in the Eastern Mediterranean. The discovery of oil and gas in the Eastern Med along with the Syrian Civil War , Syrian Governments new allies (Russia & Iran), and the encroachment of China are changing US focus on the region. Legacy relationships with NATO allies are fraying. The US is quietly engaging in a "mini-pivot" to the Eastern Mediterranean and will likely continue to do so.

1. New Alliance Paradigm Emerging in Eastern
Mediterranean which will Reshape the
Regional Security Landscape and Hints
Toward the Future of NATO
Created for the Hellenic National Defense College
Presented by: Greg Kleponis, Ph.D.(ABV), LL.M, MA
Colonel, USAF (ret) & Robert Snyder, Captain, USN, (ret)
21 September 2018
Unclassified

2. Central Strategic Trends
• Economic Trends
▫ Trade friction from US Tariffs on the EU and China
▫ Russian
 Oil and Natural Gas represents 70% of all Russian Exports
 EU imports over 32% of oil and 38% of natural gas requirements from Russia
 US has imposed economic sanctions on Russia with latest round including oil
exploration machinery.
▫ Iran
 US has unilaterally re-imposed economic sanctions on Iran over Iran’s Nuclear
Program
 Iran has the world’s largest reserve of Natural Gas
 Possible alternative supplier of Natural Gas to EU
▫ China
 The EU is China’s largest trading partner
 Operates seaports around the globe… Including,Piraeus, Greece; Haifa, Israel;
and Khalifa Port, Abu Dhabi

3. Central Strategic Trends
• Military Trends
▫ Russia
 Expanded Russian Navy Base at Tartus, Syria
 Recent tensions from downing of Russian plane
▫ China
 EU and US continues to enforce an Arms Embargo
 EU considering ending embargo… could influence balance of power
in the Pacific
 China has established it’s first overseas base in Djibouti
▫ Iran
 Building nuclear capability… has ballistic capability
 Top State sponsor of Terrorism
 Signed a deal to rebuild the Syrian Armed forces

4. Central Strategic Trends
• The military-political landscape in Europe and the Mediterranean is
changing.
• “This is not your father’s NATO” – Less Unified- fraying on edges
• Turkey’s membership -more a formality now than a real thing
• Pro-US group consisting of Great Britain, Poland, and the Baltic
States has emerged – this is new and emergent
• “2% Contribution Rift”- Exposed by Trump- weakening the alliance
as deadbeats exposed
• New NATO Developing with US/Middle East/ Med emerging
• Energy + politics are the animating forces
Unclassified

5. US “Mini-Pivot” to Med
• My term for the US New focus on the Med for access to ME
• Washington’s relations with Ankara continue to deteriorate.
• Idea of expelling Turkey from NATO is being discussed in a serious
way in the most prestigious DC think tanks.
• Emerging view that Ankara is more of an adversary than ally
• General Dunford (CJCS) pointedly did not include Turkey on his
itinerary, as top US military officials would normally do in order to
maintain balance in their relationship with Athens and Ankara. This
is a clear message to Turkey.
Unclassified

6. “The United States is interested in increasing its use of military bases
and ports in Greece,”
“If you look at geography, and you look at current operations in
Libya, and you look at current operations in Syria, you look at
potential other operations in the eastern Mediterranean, the
geography of Greece and the opportunities here are pretty
significant,”
General Joseph Dunford,
Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS),
Athens, Greece 4 September 2018
Unclassified

7. “U.S. officials who briefed reporters traveling with Dunford said no specific
bases have been identified, but that Supreme Allied Commander Europe Army
Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti is evaluating several options for increased U.S. flight
training, port calls to do forward-based ship repairs and additional
multilateral exercises”
Military Times- 3 Sept 2018 <https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-
military/2018/09/04/us-greece-look-at-increasing-military-presence-amid-tension-with-
turkey/
Unclassified

8. “ Souda Bay is in some respects is at capacity now, in terms of its
support for EUCOM, for AFRICOM, for TRANSCOM, even SOCOM
now" in part due to increased traffic in support of operations in Syria.”
General Dunford, CJCS
General Dunford,
CJSCS pictured with
Hellenic Defense Staff
Unclassified

9. Indications of Increased Use of Greek Facilities
• US in May started using Greece’s Larissa Military Base for the support of
MQ-9 Aerial Vehicles (Reaper)
• Greece’s Souda Bay naval base now supporting
US operations in Syria.
• USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier was one
of the American ships making a port call.
• US Ambassador to Greece Geoffrey Pyatt has often cited the strategic
significance of ports of Alexandroupolis and Thessaloniki.
• Washington interested in helping Greek military conduct more effective
operations in Aegean and Med. Greece -crucial element in dealing with
challenges of the Eastern Med, Levant, Maghreb, Balkans, and Black Sea
region.
• China operating the seaport of Piraeus, Greece
• Two of three terminals and majority stakeholder of the third terminal
• Piraeus port traffic has grown 300% in the last six years
Unclassified

10. Strategic Energy & Positioning
• Ankara’s dispute with Cyprus and Israel over drilling rights in the
Mediterranean was also on the agenda of the talks during Gen. Dunford’s
visit, although no comments were made.
• Greece wants to transform Alexandroupoli into a hub for the gas being
exported from Israel and Cyprus to Europe.
• Pipeline’s approximate length is between 1,300 to 2,000 km
▫ Begins in Israel and cross through the territories of Cyprus, Crete and Greece to
eventually end in Italy
• Hub will also have a rail link to Bulgaria. A floating LNG reception, storage,
and regasification unit will be part of this project, to make it possible to
bring in US LNG supplies.
Unclassified

11. Turkey & EastMed Pipeline
• Planned route of the EastMed pipeline, a project supported by EU,
will bypass Turkey, despite the increased cost.
• Ankara will not sit idly by and watch this turn of events. Turkey
claims that part of the exclusive economic zone of Cyprus is under
Turkish jurisdiction.
• The countries involved in the project may need EU and US
protection and help in order for this to come to fruition.
• Current friction with Turkey will inevitably increase and jeopardize
stability in Med. – Turkey has history of unilateral use of force in
region. Bellicose leader emboldened by Russia/Iran

12. “Eastern Mediterranean faces a security
threat should Cyprus continue its unilateral
operations of offshore oil and gas
exploration in the region.”
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey

13. Unclassified

14. America Back in “a big way”
• US, strengthening relations with Greece means
expanding support for the emerging Greece-
Israel-Cyprus Eastern Mediterranean Alliance
(EMA)
• Driven by the discovery of hydrocarbons in
Israeli and Cypriot waters and by opposition to
Turkey. As Ambassador Pyatt put it, “Americans
are back in a really big way.”

15. US + Israel
• A year ago the US opened its first permanent military base in Israel
run by the US military's European Command (EUCOM).
• Officially, the primary mission of the air-defense facility located
inside the Israeli Air Force's Mashabim air base, west of the towns of
Dimona and Yerucham, is to detect and warn of a possible ballistic
missile attack from Iran. This is part of a broader process as a new
military alliance with its own infrastructure emerges.

16. Greece /Israel
• In 2015, Greece and Israel signed a military cooperation
agreement.
• Bilateral and trilateral military drills, such as Nobel
Dina, a multinational joint air and sea exercise
conducted under the partnership of Greece, Israel, and
the United States, have become routine.
• March 2014, Israel opened new military attaché office in
Greece signifies ever-closer relationship.

17. Israel /Cyprus/ Greece
• Israel has a strong defense and military relationship with
Cyprus.
▫ The three nations are pledging deeper military ties, in
keeping with the declaration they issued at the first-ever
trilateral defense summit last year.
• Both Greece and Cyprus are EU members and Israel
needs allies within the bloc.
▫ Greece opposed the EU’s decision to label products from
Israel’s settlements.
• In May, the leaders of the three allied Eastern
Mediterranean nations paid a joint visit to Washington.

18. Albania
• Albania, Greece’s neighbor, has recently offered to
establish a US military base on its soil.
▫ Albania's Defense Minister, Olta Xhacka, made
proposal in April during her visit to Washington.

19. “Petite Entente” and the Future of a
Legacy NATO
• Conclusion:
• Alliance of US and the three Eastern Med states has emerged
as a political and military “petite entente”
• Strategically located and allied to offset Russian and Chinese
influence in Eastern Med at a time when NATO is facing
serious challenges to its unity and the EU’s future is in
question.
• The two large entities that bring together nations sharing the
same “values,” or the desire to counter China or Russia, are
giving way to smaller groups of countries pursuing shared
regional interests, thus undermining the very concept of what
is known as the United West.

20. An Alliance within an Alliance
• Of all the members of the emerging alliance, only Israel is not
a NATO member, but it’s an enhanced partner with proven
capabilities and a member of the Mediterranean Dialogue.
• What we actually have is a new alliance within the alliance,
which was unofficially established to counter Turkey, a full-
fledged NATO member.
• Under the circumstances, it would only be natural for Ankara
to distance itself from NATO to move toward Russia, Iran,
China, the SCO, and, perhaps, the Eurasian Union.
• Greece should be looked at as an increasingly important
strategic ally.