A PowerPoint Presentation used in the Great Decisions program 2019. The Great Decisions program is sponsored by the Foreign Policy Association

1. Nuclear Negotiations:
Back to the Future
Mark Koscinski CPA D.Litt.
Visiting Assistant Professor
Economics and Business
Be A Little
Revolutionary!
FOUNDED 1742
NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS:
BACK TO THE FUTURE
MARK KOSCINSKI
ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF ACCOUNTING PRACTICE
MORAVIAN COLLEGE
July 23, 2019
GREAT DECISIONS SERIES

2. Mark Koscinski CPA
• Assistant Professor Accounting
Practice-- Moravian College
• Assisted the U.S. intelligence
community for about ten years
on various projects.
• Former CFO/COO of Butler
Aerospace and Defense, Inc.
2

3. Two Prominent Accountants in Nuclear Policy
Henry Kissinger Robert McNamara
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4. A Tale of Two Accountants
Henry Kissinger—Well, Not Quite…
• Studied accounting at CUNY
• Studies engineering at Lafayette
• PhD Harvard
• Seminal book: Nuclear Weapons
and Foreign Policy
• Linkage in negotiations
• Shuttle diplomacy
Robert McNamara
• Well, we all know what he is
most associated with, but…
• He did help negotiate an end to
the Cuban missile crisis
• The Vietnam War never went
“nuclear”
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5. And…
• Part of my business practice has been negotiating
for clients
• Acquisitions and Divestitures
• Divorces
• Lawsuits
• Other transactions
• I teach Decision Analysis on a graduate level where
we cover negotiating and game theory
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6. Some Surprising Fans of Total
Abolition of Nuclear Weapons
6
• George Schultz, Henry Kissinger, William J Perry,
and Sam Nunn have all joined together to
advocate for increased controls over nuclear
weapons if not their total abolition.
• They testified in Congress in 2018 about the
dangers of a new generation of small nuclear
warheads.
• Reagan and Gorbachev discussed but could not
resolve the question of total abolition of nuclear
weapons.

7. On Thermonuclear War….
On Thermonuclear War
• It was possible
• It was winnable if the United
States had the will to win.
• Was not popularly received
Herman Kahn—Game Theorist
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8. Some Say Cooler Heads Prevailed…
Reaction
• Dr. Strangelove was a
parody of this type of
thinking.
• Clearly, the idea of winning
a nuclear war did not strike
many people as being
palatable.
• Hence, negotiations.
Major Kahn from Dr. Strangelove
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9. This Could Keep You Up at Night….
Source: Ploughshares Inc.
• Since 1993, there have been 454 confirmed incidents
of illegal possession, smuggling, purchasing, or selling
of nuclear or otherwise radioactive materials.
• The US President has the absolute and total authority
to order a nuclear attack. Neither Congress nor any
other governmental authority has oversight over a
launch decision.
• There are still nearly 15,000 nuclear weapons left on
the planet; over 90% are in the US and Russia, with
the remainder in China, France, India, Israel, North
Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom.
• There have been dozens of nuclear false alarms, yet
the president has a mere 10 minutes to decide
whether to launch an attack when an incoming strike
is reported.
Source: Washington Examiner
• How a nuclear war between India and
Pakistan could reverse global warming
• by Philip Klein
• | February 27, 2019 01:19 PM
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10. TNW vs. Strategic
Nuclear Weapons
• Generally smaller than strategic weapons
• Designed to be used on a battlefield with friendly
troops or civilians nearby.
• One particularly heinous variety was the neutron
bomb
• The ultimate capitalist weapon
• Destroys life but not property
• There had been suspicion South Africa was developing
such a weapon
• The U.S will be introducing tactical nuclear
warheads back on submarines again.
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11. Who Has What?
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12. Some of the Not
Quites…
• Who Has Them
• Who Had Them
• Who Tried to Get Them
• Who Could Try to Get Them
• There has been A LOT of
success in non-proliferation
efforts

13. How Does The United
States Deal With
Nuclear Weapons?
• Multinational Agreement
• NPT for example
• Includes regional treaties
• Bilateral Agreements
• Russia, U.S.-U.K
Cooperation
• Covert Activity or Military Action
• Covert action against
Iranian nuclear programs
• Cyber attack against Iranian
nuclear facilities

14. Nuclear Diplomacy Has a Long History
• 1959 Antarctic Treaty
• 1963 Hot Line Agreement
• 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty
• 1967 Outer Space Treaty
• 1967 Latin America Nuclear Free Zone Treaty
• 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
• 1971 Seabed Treaty
• 1972 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty I (Interim Agreement)
• 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
• 1974 Threshold Test Ban Treaty
• 1974 Vladivostok Agreement
• 1976 Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty
• 1977 Environmental Modification Convention
• 1979 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty II
• 1979 Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty II
• 1985 South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty
• 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty - INF
• 1988 Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement
• 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
• 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II
• 1996 Treaty of Pelindaba
• 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
• 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty
• 2005 International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of
Nuclear Terrorism
• 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)
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THIS IS A PARTIAL LIST ONLY

15. There Has Been A Lot of Progress Made…
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16. Negotiating
Thinks to Keep in Mind
• You don’t negotiate simply to
establish a relationship. You
negotiate to achieve goals.
• It is very tough to negotiate with
someone you have demonized.
• Negotiations have to be a “win-
win” situation
• Don’t back anyone into a corner
Probable Outcomes
• We tend to demonize who we
negotiate with.
• We believe any negotiation must
be a complete victory
• We don’t like to renegotiate
• In short, it is going to be extremely
difficult to simply persuade
countries to voluntarily give up
nuclear weapons.
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17. And You Have to Have Sitzfleisch
• Sitzfleisch
• Staying Power
• Patience
• Something we don’t have
a lot of in the United
States!
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18. Some Observations…
Things I Don’t Like
• President often at odds with his
intelligence community (lack of
consensus)
• President likes to negotiate
himself.
• Nixon sent out Kissinger
• North Korea has gotten use to that.
• If the President negotiates, who is
going to tell him NO?
Things I Like
• “Only Nixon Can Go to China”
• He can walk back rhetoric
• Little Rocket Man
• “My Button is Bigger Than Yours”
• He can adjust his expectations and
he is an experienced negotiator
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19. Not A Fan of Personal Diplomacy But….
Sometimes It Works…
 Kennedy’s with the Cuban
Missile Crisis
 Nixon/Kissinger with China
 Kissinger during the Middle East
War
 Reagan/Gorbachev IRM
Sometimes It Doesn’t….
• Woodrow Wilson—World War I
and League of Nations
• Some would argue FDR at Yalta
• Kennedy meeting with
Khrushchev
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20. Why Are Nuclear Negotiations So Difficult?
• Lots of Players with Lots of
Different Motivations
• Tough to Negotiate with a country
that won’t even admit it has
nuclear weapons
• Non-state players
• What will be included in the
negotiations?
• Defensive weapons
• New technologies
• Tactical nuclear weapons
• Country Regimes are NOT
monolithic. Look at the U.S.
• President and Senate
• Congress when House is needed
• Some positions become
enshrined
• The TRIAD has a life of its own in
the United States because of inter-
service rivalry
• Justifies the existence of other
weapons systems such as aircraft
carriers.
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21. Understanding Motivations—Why Do
Countries Have Nuclear Weapons
• Regime protection—North Korea, Syria, Iran
• Conventional weaponry inferiority—Iran, North
Korea, Russia?
• Minimalist deterrence—France, Britain
• Mutual Assured Destruction—United States, Russia
• “They have it too”—India, Pakistan
• Prestige—Too many to mention…
• Many other reasons
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Negotiating is
hard enough on
a bilateral basis,
but differing
motivations
make negotiating
all the more
difficult.

22. Defensive Technology
• Reoriented now to negate smaller
strikes from “rogue nations”
• Examples:
• THAAD
• Patriot
• Aegis missiles
• Perhaps lasers
• Many wish to station the weapons
systems in space
• Real issue with the Russians
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Nuclear Negotiaions 22

23. Defensive Technology
• The ABM Treaty had been in place from 1972
to 2001
• It limited the U.S. and the Soviet Union to
two ABM sites. US has about sixty launchers
now
• The U.S. pulled out of the treaty in 2002 in
order to develop defenses against rogue
state attacks
• Russia looked at this as a means of enhancing
a first strike.
• Recently cited by Putin as the reason for
development of a new generation of
weapons.
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Nuclear Negotiaions 23

24. Does This Stuff Work?
• In 2008, a Navy cruiser shot down an
errant US satellite with one shot.
• Many observers believed it was the
United States flexing its muscles.
• This was ten years ago. With the
increase in technology, one can only
speculate about the possibilities…
• Still, there are only about 60 ground
launchers
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25. And Other Weapons of
Mass Destruction
• Biological
• Chemical
• Radiological
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26. New Threats
and New
Technology
• “Rods From God”—
Kinetic bombardment
• The Rail Gun
• The “Daisy Cutter”
/MOAB
• Conventional
weapon dropped
from a cargo plan
• Yield similar to a
tactical nuclear
weapon
• Cyber Warfare
• Hypersonic cruise
missile
• Developed by
Russia and China as
anti-carrier
weapons and as a
way to avoid
ballistic missile
defenses
• Nuclear powered cruise
missile
• Hypersonic gliders
• New generation of
ICBMs
26

27. And Then There is Outer Space…
• 2/19/19—Trump signs
fourth Space Force Directive
• New Space Force will be a
separate but equal branch of
the military operating within
the Department of the Air
Force
• Make no mistake, space is
weaponized now.
• The Space Force could be
responsible for:
• Coordinating satellite
intelligence
• Denying enemy satellite
intelligence
• Denying enemy WMD in
space
• ABM defense
• Professional astronaut corps
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28. War Games
• Admiral Crowe was Chairman of the JCS
• As a new admiral he was in charge of war
gaming.
• No one would order a nuclear strike no matter
what the circumstances
• Finally, he was ordered to
• Can we count on that?
• Game theory becomes less and less useful as
the number of nuclear players increases.
• This instability is what Schultz, Kissinger and
Perry were referring to when they wanted all
nuclear missiles eliminated.
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Nuclear Negotiaions 28

29. The U. S.
Nuclear
Triad—Still
Going Strong
• Nuclear Capable Bombers
• 76 B-52s
• 20 B-2
• F-35 and F-16 can also
carry smaller weapons
• Submarine Forces
• 14 Trident II
submarines
• Each carries 24
missiles
• Each missile
carries on average
4 warheads
• 4 British Vanguard
submarines
• Minuteman Missiles
• 399 missiles with
four warheads in
each missile
• Other Non-Triad
Delivery Systems:
• Carrier based
aircraft
• Guided missile
submarines
• Artillery
• IRBM
29

30. Key Players: Russia
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
ICBM SLBM Bomber Total
286
176
66
528
958 752
200
1810
Russian Platform and Warheads
Platforms Warheads
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31. Key Players: Russia
• New Weapons Development:
• Hypersonic gliders
• Tactical nuclear torpedoes
• Hypersonic missiles
• New generation of ICBM
• Nuclear powered cruise missile
• Laser point defense weapons
• Motivations?
• Nuclear torpedoes aimed at US
carriers, not a TRIAD weapon
• Hypersonic weapons are relatively
short range weapons
• The ICBM stock was getting quite
old in the tooth.
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32. Key Players: Russia
• Analysis
• We can’t shoot down their ICBMs
now.
• The TRIAD will provide deterrence
• How many of these new weapons
are operational?
• How much does each one cost?
• Do they really work?
• Commentary
• At least for short run Russia is
more interested in regional issues
than taking on the United States
• Russian bombers have been flying
off the coasts for decades. This is
for home consumption
• Russia’s financial resources
continue to be limited.
• Its current conventional forces are
in bad condition.
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33. Active Duty Ground Forces (2017)
US Army and Marines
• Army 476,000
• Marine Corp 182,000
• TOTAL 658,000
Russian Army
• Army 350,000
• Marines 12,000
• Coastal Forces 35,000
• TOTAL 397,000
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Doesn’t even include allied forces such as
the UK, Germany etc.

34. Graphical View of Active Duty Ground Forces
476
172
0
646
350
12
35
397
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Army Marines Coastal Defense Total
Active Duty Troops By Branch in OOOs
US Russia
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35. US Navy vs. Russian Navy
US Navy
• 10 Aircraft carriers (90,000 tons)
• 9 Small carriers (50,000 tons +)
• 22 Cruisers (10,000 tons)
• 63 Destroyers (8-10,000 tons)
• 14 Ballistic missile submarines
• 4 Cruise missile submarines
Russia Navy
• I Aircraft carrier (58,000 tons)
• 2 Battlecruisers (28,000 tons)
• 3 Cruisers (12,500 tons)
• 12 Destroyers (7,500 tons)
• 9 Ballistic Missile Submarines
• 8 Cruise Missile Submarines
7/25/2019 Nuclear Negotiaions 35

36. Key Players: China
• U. S. has focused on the new
Chinese hypersonic weapons
• These will become active within
a year or two.
• The original thrust will be
regional usage, but could be
extended to international range.
• Even during détente, the United
States has never insisted China
relinquish nuclear weapons.
• China is considered more of a
regional power and is a
significant trading party to the
United States.
• Prediction: Status quo for the
foreseeable future. US will
continue to try to engage China
on Korean weapons.
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37. Key Players:
North Korea
• North Korea will NOT denuclearize completely
• As it becomes included in the international
community, the risk of war will become less and
less.
• The negotiations will be long and drawn out, as the
North Koreans will demand a quid pro quo for each
step along the way.
• Short of stepping over the “bright line” we should
not pull out of negotiations. Our expectations need
to be adjusted.
37

38. Key Players: North Korea
• A key part of negotiating is
knowing your BATNA—Best
alternative to a negotiated
agreement.
• Sadly, in this case, it could be
either:
• More instability
• A shooting war
• Or more of the status quo.
• Military Options against North
Korea (Brookings Institute):
• Shoot Down a North Korean
Missile
• Naval Blockade (Act of War)
• First Strike on Nuclear
Infrastructure
• Target Kim personally
• Advanced weaponry not publicly
disclosed?
7/25/2019 Nuclear Negotiaions 38

39. Recent Headlines
• North Korea executes 5 officials
over failed Kim-Trump summit:
South Korean media (Fox News)
• North Korea Executed and
Purged Top Nuclear Negotiators,
South Korean Report Says (New
York Times)
• North Korea's Short-Range
Missile Test Spotted from Space
(space.com, MAY 6, 2019
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40. Prediction:
North Korea
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Nuclear Negotiaions 40
Forecast: North Korea
will try to outwait
Trump. Occasional
provocations. We have
reached a short term
equilibrium.

41. Key Players: Syria
• Israel destroyed its main nuclear facilities in 2007
• An example of dealing with a rogue state with
military action
• Fuel is still missing
• Syria may be attempting to restart its nuclear
program again.
• Other WMDs are of immediate concern
• Chemical weapons have been used not only by
Syria but by ISIS
• No real negotiations going on at this time.
41

42. Key Players: India and Pakistan
• Next to the Korean peninsula,
this is the most volatile border in
the world.
• India has six times the
population than Pakistan and
twice the conventional forces.
• This may in part explain
Pakistan’s anxiety
• When India and Pakistan
became nuclear powers in 1998,
sanctions followed.
• These were quickly lifted and the
world tacitly accepted the two
new nuclear powers.
• This could be what North Korea
is angling for in its current
negotiations with the US
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43. Key Players: India and Pakistan
• Both nations have approximately
the same number of nuclear
weapons: 130-150
• India has already achieved Triad
status; Pakistan will do so soon.
• India has much stronger
conventional forces.
• Nevertheless, leadership of each
country rattles the sabers less
than the press does.
• Issues:
• Rogue elements could seize
weapons in Pakistan
• Pakistan is still “smarting” from
losing East Pakistan and looks to
nuclear weapons as a guarantee of
nuclear integrity.
• Prognosis:
• Neither India or Pakistan will not
negotiate its stockpile down below
a critical level it deems necessary
for survival.
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44. Key Players: Iran
Their Perspective
• The U.S. obliterated the fifth biggest
army in the world
• The U.S obliterated the Iranian navy
• Iran is surrounded by the U.S.
• U. S. Cyber warfare attacked the Iranian
nuclear production
• Iranian nuclear scientists have
disappeared at an alarming rate.
44

45. Key Players: Iran
• Iran has had a long history of
flirting with nuclear weaponry.
• The U.S. and world communities
have sought to deal with this
issue by:
• Sanctions
• International agreements
• Covert military options
• Disappearing scientists
• Cyber warfare
• What will Israel do?
• The U.S. has recently pulled out
of the agreement negotiated
under the Obama administration
• There is a wide disparity of views
on whether Iran is building
nuclear weapons
• Certainly, it is building delivery
systems.
• Prognosis: No significant
progress will be made here for
years. We need a BATNA
7/25/2019 Nuclear Negotiaions 45

46. Key Players: Non-State Players
• How do they obtain the
weapons?
• Obtaining it from the current stock
of nuclear nations
• Developing their own crude
devices.
• Delivery is the key problem. It is
one thing having a nuclear
weapon. It is another delivering
it.
• Very difficult problem for the
world:
• There have been multiple terror
attacks around the world.
• Nuclear weapons do go missing.
• Who do you negotiate with?
• Do you even want to negotiate?
• Prediction: Continue dealing
with this by international
agreements and military action
as needed.
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47. Conclusions and Closing Comments…
• There is NO downside to
negotiations if done correctly.
• It has actually worked in the
past.
• We need to be patient and be
willing to continue to come to
the table as often as needed.
• We may need to adjust our
expectations about the process
of negotiating.
• Thank you for your attendance
today.
• I will have this posted on mark-
koscinski.com in short order.
• Questions?
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