The document discusses how software is disrupting traditional industries and how digital technologies like smartphones, tablets, and the Internet of Things are driving massive growth opportunities. It also covers topics like the rise of APIs, the shift from monolithic to modular software, and how developers are becoming more independent and influential through open source contributions and the ability to work remotely. The final sections provide recommendations for companies to embrace these trends, such as investing in developer relations, building a practitioner purchasing competence, and practicing pace-layering and timeless software design.
To download the original hi-res version of this codex visit: www.311institute.com/insights
This 2021 Tech Trends codex, which is part of a series, explores over 100 of the top megatrends affecting global business, culture, and society.
To download the original hi-res version of this codex visit: www.311institute.com/insights
This 2021 Tech Trends codex, which is part of a series, explores over 100 of the top megatrends affecting global business, culture, and society.
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In his abstract, Scriffignano summarizes as follows:
l explore some of the ways in which the massive availability of data is changing and the types of questions we must ask in the context of making business decisions. Truth be told, nearly all organizations struggle to make sense out of the mounting data already within the enterprise. At the same time, businesses, individuals, and governments continue to try to outpace one another, often in ways that are informed by newly-available data and technology, but just as often using that data and technology in alarmingly inappropriate or incomplete ways. Multiple “solutions” exist to take data that is poorly understood, promising to derive meaning that is often transient at best. A tremendous amount of “dark” innovation continues in the space of fraud and other bad behavior (e.g. cyber crime, cyber terrorism), highlighting that there are very real risks to taking a fast-follower strategy in making sense out of the ever-increasing amount of data available. Tools and technologies can be very helpful or, as Scriffignano puts it, “they can accelerate the speed with which we hit the wall.” Drawing on unstructured, highly dynamic sources of data, fascinating inference can be derived if we ask the right questions (and maybe use a bit of different math!). This session will cover three main themes: The new normal (how the data around us continues to change), how are we reacting (bringing data science into the room), and the path ahead (creating a mindset in the organization that evolves). Ultimately, what we learn is governed as much by the data available as by the questions we ask. This talk, both relevant and occasionally irreverent, will explore some of the new ways data is being used to expose risk and opportunity and the skills we need to take advantage of a world awash in data.
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5. Internet of Things
“If you add up all the smartphones and the
tablets and the digital televisions and the PCs...
we see a large opportunity of perhaps 3 billion
to 4 billion units per annum, but we see an
embedded market that’s maybe 30 billion to
40 billion units per annum”
- ARM CEO Warren East
5
17. Purchasing First
“Operating systems, databases, web and application servers, dev tools
all required money. To get anything done, then, developers needed
someone to write checks for the tools they needed to build. That
meant either raising the capital to buy the necessary pieces, or more
often requesting that an employer or other third party purchase them
on the developer's behalf.”
Stephen O’Grady – New Kingmakers
17
20. Social, Local, Mobile
Facebook:
1bn monthly active users
500m+ are mobile
30 Petabyte+ Hadoop cluster
Foursquare:
3m Check-Ins Per Day
500k Merchants
Twitter:
340 million tweets per day
24m – Lady Gaga’s followers
20
25. The High Cost of “Low” Bids
President Whitmore:
“I don't understand, where does all
this come from? How do you get
funding for something like this?”
Julius Levinson:
“You don't actually think they spend
$20k on a hammer, do you?”
25
26. Outsourcing Contracts as CDOs
“These [huge] contracts were meant to be about lowering risk. But when you
package up a huge range of functions into one contract the risk becomes
impossible to manage”
Tariq Rashid, Lead Architect at the UK Home Office
26
27. From Farming To Foraging: Digital Abundance
Foragers Farmers
Heads up Heads Down
Diversity - healthier more varied diet Monoculture- prone to disease
Better exercise More sedentary
Love nature, travel, and exploration Travel less, and move less often from where they grew up.
Move more often to new communities Are more polite and care more for cleanliness and order.
Work fewer hours, more mentally-challenging jobs. Work longer hours at more tedious and less healthy jobs
Talk more openly about sex Are more faithful to their spouses and their communities.
Are more sexually promiscuous Make better warriors
Have fewer kids Have lots of children
Care less for land or material possessions. Expect and prepare more for disasters like war, famine.
Spend more time on leisure, music, dance, story-telling Have a stronger sense of honor and shame
Less comfortable with war, domination, bragging Fewer topics are open for discussion
Group decisions, with everyone having an equal voice. Better accept human authorities and hierarchy
Deal with conflicts more personally and informally Believe in good and evil, in powerful gods.
Prefer unhappy folk to be free to leave. Think people should learn their place and stay there.
Leaders lead more by consensus. Leaders lead by rules
Inspired by Overcoming Bias
27
29. “It was at this very plantation that a soldier passed me with a ham
on his musket, a jug of sorghum-molasses under his arm, and a big
piece of honey in his hand, from which he was eating, and,
catching my eye, he remarked sotto voce and carelessly to a
comrade, "Forage liberally on the country," quoting from my
general orders.
Memoirs of General William T. Sherman
29
30. “In a well-ordered and well-disciplined army, these things might be
deemed irregular, but I am convinced that the ingenuity of these
younger officers accomplished many things far better than I could
have ordered, and the marches were thus made, and the distances
were accomplished, in the most admirable way.
Memoirs of General William T. Sherman
30
31. “By attempting to hold the roads, we will lose a thousand men
each month, and will gain no result. I can make this march, and
make Georgia howl!”
Memoirs of General William T. Sherman
31
32. “I have known the skirmish-line, without orders, to fight a
respectable battle for the possession of some old fields that were
full of blackberries.”
Memoirs of General William T. Sherman
32
34. Even Microsoft is Forced to Forage
“We need to think more like the web…. one stack to run them all has gone
away. This stuff about single vendor stacks is behind us. The days of recruiting
developers to where you are is over. You have to go to where they are.”
Tim O’Brien Microsoft Platform Strategy Group general manager
34
36. Recommendations and Wrap Up
Embrace Open Source – patronage and contribution
Get in Early, Encourage Hacking and Play
Hire Algorithmically – skills foraging
Let Developers Choose Their Own Hours/Location (But Keep them Close To The User)
Build a Practitioner Purchasing competence
Invest in Developer Relations and Developer Experience
Github First (with enterprise governance in mind)
Cloud First (with on prem in mind)
Social First (with enterprise directory in mind)
Mobile First (with desktop in mind)
Practice Pace Layering/Timeless Software
36
37. Credits
Photos:
SF in Cloud – SF Chronicle
Craftsman – A. Davey on Flickr
Berlin Wall, man with hammer – gavinandrewstewart on Flickr
Berlin Wall – antaldaniel on Flickr
Barbed Wire by tacitrequiem on Flickr
VC chart data from the National Venture Capital Association and the
Center for Venture Research, via @cbtacy from AppFog
37
Editor's Notes
Mike Stonebreaker, founder of seven different database companies, told the GlueCon audience in 2010 that it was impossible to be a new project in the database space without being open source.
W hich of course encourages more forking and diversity, the new way innovation is done
W hat does this mean for systems of record/systems of engagement ….