New base 31 may 2018 energy news issue 1175 by khaled al awadi

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this
publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1
NewBase Energy News 31 May 2018 Issue No. 1075 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Solar and Wind Dominate Power Generation Capacity Additions as
Projections for Investment reach $2.20 Trillion by 2021
WAM/Tariq alfaham
Frost & Sullivan’s analysis Global Power Industry Outlook, 2018 reveals that a combination of
factors led by renewables is set to transform the current power landscape. Increased battery
energy storage capabilities, surges in merger and acquisition activities, and the advent of
disruptive energy start-ups are contributing to tremendous growth and transformation in the
sector. In early 2017, global solar photovoltaics (PV) capacity surpassed nuclear capacity, driven
by high investment levels.
The analysis indicates that this growth will continue through 2020 as solar PV is likely to surpass
wind capacity, making solar the fourth largest generation type followed by coal, gas and hydro.
The outlook also covers investment and capacity trends for all major generation types through
2021, while also highlighting innovations, challenges facing the industry, and leadership thought
points Chief highlights and growth opportunities include:
· The 3D’s of Power – Decarbonization, Decentralization, Digitalization – continue to be
underlying factors determining the global power market landscape;
· $2.20 trillion in capital investment will be devoted to generation capacity additions for
the period 2017 to 2021 driven mainly by renewable energies;
· The residential battery storage market will be the fastest growing in 2018 driven largely
by the surge in the behind-the-meter residential deployments in the US, Germany, and
Australia;

· Over $400 Billion will be invested annually in generation capacity additions for the
period 2017 to 2021 driven mainly by renewable energies, solar and wind, accounting
for $603.4 billion and $553.7 billion, respectively during this period.
"Analyzing long-term scenarios and defining positioning strategies should be key focus areas for
industry participants in the long term," said Vasanth Krishnan, Energy & Environment Analyst at
Frost & Sullivan. "Also, as the renewable and distributed energy markets mature, a large installed
capacity of equipment will need to be serviced, offering attractive growth prospects within the
operations and maintenance sector."

Saudi Sadara taps Veolia to build sustainable central utilities facility
By Staff Writer, The Saudi Gazette
Sadara Chemical Company has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Veolia
Middle East SAS, a Paris-based group and world-leader in industrial waste management, to
construct a sustainable central utilities facility in PlasChem Park, the unique industrial park
adjacent to the Sadara Chemical Complex. PlasChem Park is a collaborative effort between
Sadara and the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu (RCJY) in Jubail Industrial City II.
The MOU provides a long-term waste management solution for Sadara, and creates an
opportunity for Veolia to build a utility plant including waste management and waste energy
facilities at PlasChem Park, enabling Veolia to manage a substantial portion of Sadara’s waste
streams.
“One of Sadara’s main drivers is the enablement of a vibrant downstream manufacturing industry
in Kingdom. Another is to always act responsibly towards the environment. This deal allows us to
Image used for illustrative purpose. A general view of power plant number 10 at Saudi Electricity
Company's Central Operation Area, south of Riyadh.

combine those two key objectives, and we are very excited indeed to partner with Veolia to deliver
this waste product management solution. With partners like Veolia, we are confident that we will
continue to catalyze the growth of the Kingdom’s downstream manufacturing industry,” said Dr.
Faisal Al-Faqeer, CEO at Sadara.
The central utilities “island” will incinerate industrial wastes and recover the heat from this process
to produce a usable steam by-product. This will act as an incentive to attract PlasChem Park
investors, providing their proposed manufacturing plants with third-party steam at an attractive
price.
Additionally, the Veolia facility will produce cooled water and compressed air, which will also be
made available to PlasChem Park tenants for industrial use.
“We are very excited to be contributing our knowledge and experience to the further development
of PlasChem Park, a truly exciting endeavor in Jubail Industrial City. This new utilities facility will
implement environmentally responsible principles of the “Circular Economy,” a favored
international economic model that keeps resources in use for as long as possible, extracting
maximum value and then recovering and regenerating additional products and energy, a concept
that we ascribe to wholeheartedly at Veolia,” said Faisal Al Dawish, Veolia Arabia CEO.
The utilities project will be developed by Veolia and potential partners. The investment will be
made by Veolia and partners, and Sadara will act only as facilitator to the project’s success and
has agreed to transfer waste products to the plant.
Veolia, a global group, develops sustainable responsible services and expertise to companies in
many types of industries. It currently operates 29 similar utility facilities worldwide.

Angola: Total and Sonangol strengthen their cooperations
Source: Total
During an official visit to France by João Lourenço, the President of the Republic of Angola,
Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of Total, and Carlos Saturnino, Chairman of the Board
of Directors of Sonangol, signed several agreements covering the Group’s upstream and
downstream activities in Angola.
 A risk service agreement for the deepwater Block 48 exploration license, which Total will
operate. Total and Sonangol are 50/50 partners in exploring Block 48 in Angola’s ultra-
deep offshore. The first, two-year phase of the program includes drilling a well.
 A framework agreement for the future joint venture between Total and Sonangol to jointly
develop a network of service stations in Angola, including petroleum product logistics and
supply.
 A memorandum of understanding to fund 50 new scholarships for young Angolans to study
at French universities by end-2019.

'As today’s agreements and the launch of the Zinia 2 development demonstrate, Total, as
Angola’s main oil and gas producer, continues to help develop the country’s oil and gas
resources. The Group appreciates the joint efforts of the Angolan authorities, Sonangol and the
industry to enhance taxation framework and regulations. These changes are vital to revive
investment in this key sector of the Angolan economy and develop new projects, including those
planned in Block 17,' said Patrick Pouyanné.'First oil from Kaombo in summer 2018 will be the
next milestone in the history of Total in Angola.'
Zinia 2 development in deep offshore Block 17
Total and its partners have taken the final investment decision to launch the Zinia 2 deep offshore
development in Block 17, 150 kms offshore Angola. The Zinia 2 project will have a production

capacity of 40,000 barrels per day (b/d), sustaining Pazflor field production, on stream since 2011.
Zinia 2 is the first of several possible short-cycle developments on Block 17 that will unlock its full
potential by connecting satellite reservoirs to the existing floating storage, production and
offloading (FPSO) units.
'Zinia 2 opens a new chapter in the history of Block 17. This project will allow to extend the
profitability of this prolific block, with over 2.6 billion barrels already produced. Thanks to the
favorable fiscal framework introduced by the Angolan authorities for satellite developments, other
projects similar to Zinia 2 are currently under consideration on Block 17,' said Arnaud Breuillac,
President of Total Exploration & Production.
'The project is also a good example of capex discipline and cost optimization: the work carried out
to simplify the design while capturing deflation allowed the partners to cut the development costs
by more than a half.'
Zinia 2 comprises nine wells in water depths ranging from 600 to 1,200 meters, tied back to the
Pazflor FPSO with a budget of US$1.2 billion.
Total operates the Block 17 with a 40% interest, alongside affiliates of Equinor(23.33%), Exxon
Mobil (20%), and BP (16.67%). Sonangol, is concessionaire. It has four FPSOs — Girassol, Dalia,
Pazflor and CLOV. In 2017, its production averaged 600,000 b/d.
Total Exploration & Production in Angola
Present in Angola since 1953, Total is the country's leading oil operator. Total's production
averaged 229,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2017 from Blocks 17, 1 and 0, as well as
Angola LNG.
In addition to Block 17, Total also operates the Kaombo deep offshore project in Block 32 with
30% interest.
In April 2014, the final investment decision was made to develop its estimated 650 million barrels
of reserves using two converted FPSOs, for a production capacity of 230,000 b/d. The start-up of
the first FPSO, Kaombo Norte, is expected by summer 2018. Total is also a partner in Blocks 14
(20%), 14K (36.75%) and 0 (10%) and Angola LNG (13.6%).

Lebanon begins offshore oil and gas exploration, Total & Eni
Reuters+ NewBase
Lebanon’s search for its first oil and gas reserves began on Tuesday after authorities approved an
exploration plan submitted by a consortium of France’s Total, Italy’s Eni and Russia’s Novatek.
Energy and Water Caretaker Minister Cesar Abi Khalil gestures during a news conference in
Beirut, Lebanon May 29, 2018.
Energy and Water Minister Cesar Abi Khalil also said in a televised statement that Lebanon hoped
to launch a second offshore licensing round by the end of 2018 or early 2019. In February,
Lebanon signed its first offshore oil and gas exploration and production agreements with the Total-
Eni-Novatek consortium for offshore Blocks 4 and 9.
Part of Block 9 contains waters disputed with neighboring Israel but the consortium has said it has
no plans to drill in the disputed area. Khalil said authorities gave the go ahead on Monday for
exploration of the two blocks to begin.
The exploration period can last up to three years and the first well is expected to be drilled in
2019, providing all government departments grant necessary licenses and permissions “on time
and without delay”, the minister said.
Khalil has served as energy minister since December 2016 but is now a caretaker minister
because Prime Minister-designate Salad al-Hariri has not yet formed a government after
parliamentary elections on May 6.

The minister said drilling would determine whether Lebanon had commercial reserves and their
scale.
SECOND ROUND
Lebanon is on the Levant Basin in the eastern Mediterranean where a number of big sub-sea gas
fields have been discovered since 2009 in Cypriot, Israeli and Egyptian waters. Khalil did not say
how many or which of the country’s 10 offshore blocks would be included in a second licensing
round.
Khalil, who in April asked the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) to prepare for a second
licensing round, said authorities were considering modifying existing qualification criteria for firms
interested in the next round.
Lebanon tried to launch its first offshore exploration in 2013 but domestic political problems
delayed it until 2017.
Khalil previously said the delay, during which time global energy prices plummeted, undermined
interest in the first licensing round. In the end, Total-ENI-Novatek was the only consortium to
submit an offer out of 51 companies which had qualified since 2013 to bid.
He said on Tuesday he hoped market conditions in 2019 would be better and that companies’
positive experience with the first round would lead to wider participation in a second.

U.S: Electric power sector consumption of fossil fuels at lowest
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
Fossil fuel consumption in the electric power sector declined to 22.5 quadrillion British thermal
units (quads) in 2017, the lowest level since 1994. The declining trend in fossil fuel consumption
by the power sector has been driven by a decrease in the use of coal and petroleum with a slightly
offsetting increase in the use of natural gas.
Changes in the fuel mix and improvements in electricity generating technology have also led the
power sector to produce electricity while consuming fewer fossil fuels.
In 2017, coal consumption by the electric power sector reached its lowest level since 1982, and
petroleum consumption in the power sector was the lowest on record, based on data since 1949.
Recent natural gas consumption in the power sector has generally been increasing, but 2017
consumption was slightly lower than the record-high 2016 level.
In energy-equivalent terms, more coal was consumed in the power sector than natural gas in
2017, at 12.7 quads and 9.5 quads, respectively. However, in terms of electricity generation,
natural gas-fired power plants in the electric power sector produced more electricity than coal-fired
plants, at 31% and 30% of the U.S. total, respectively, in 2017. Natural gas-fired units tend to be
more energy efficient, requiring less energy content to produce a unit of electricity.
As recently as 2000, natural gas-fired power plants were on average about as efficient as coal-
fired plants. Since then, new natural gas-fired power plants have tended to use combined-cycle
generators, which are more efficient because the waste heat from the gas turbine is routed to a
nearby steam turbine that generates additional power.
Combined-cycle units now make up most of the natural gas-fired electricity generation capacity.
By the end of 2018, natural gas combined-cycle units may surpass conventional coal-fired power
plants to become the most prevalent technology for generating electricity in the United States.

As the natural gas-fired generation fleet has grown and become more efficient, the generation-
weighted average efficiency of fossil fuel-fired electricity generation has improved. In 1994, fossil
fuel power plants required 10,400 British thermal units (Btu) of primary energy to produce each
kilowatthour (kWh); by 2017 that rate had fallen to 9,400 Btu/kWh.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
These changes in energy consumption and efficiency have also affected carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions from the electric power sector, which in 2017 were the lowest since 1987. Because coal
combustion is much more carbon intensive than natural gas combustion, CO2 emissions from
coal were more than double those from natural gas in 2017, even though natural gas provided
more electricity generation.

NewBase 31 May 2018 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Oil prices up & down on unexpected growth in U.S. crude stocks
Bloomberg + Reuters NewBase
Oil prices dropped on Thursday, weighed down by a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories and by
expectations that OPEC and other producers could increase output at a meeting in June.
Brent crude was down 20 cents at $77.30 per barrel at 0041 GMT, after settling the last session
up 2.8 percent.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 20 cents at $68.01 a barrel. In the previous
session, it settled up $1.48, or 2.2 percent, at $68.21 per barrel.
U.S. crude inventories rose by 1 million barrels in the week to May 25 to 434.9 million barrels,
according to data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute, although analysts had
expected a decrease of 525,000 barrels.
Oil price special
coverage

Data from the Energy Information Administration is due at 11 a.m. EDT on Thursday, a day later
than usual due to a public holiday on Monday.
A possible production increase by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and
non-OPEC members including Russia has been in focus, especially after Saudi Arabia, de facto
leader of the oil cartel, and Russia have discussed boosting output by some 1 million barrels per
day.
OPEC and some non-OPEC members have committed to curb their output by about 1.8 million
barrels per day until the end of 2018, and they will meet in Vienna on June 22 whether or not their
commitment should remain unchanged.
“With the OPEC meeting still another three weeks away, oil prices are likely to remain sensitive to
headlines,” ANZ bank said in a note.
A Gulf source familiar with the thinking of Saudi Arabia said OPEC and its allies aim to continue
their agreement to cut oil output by the end of this year but are ready to make gradual adjustments
to offset any supply shortfall.
Oil's Rally by Fear of OPEC Output Revival
Oil’s rally to its highest level since 2014 was curtailed this month after two of the world’s biggest
crude suppliers signaled they may scale back historic output cuts that helped drain a global glut.
Futures in New York are set for their first monthly drop since February after touching a fresh three-
year high early last week. Prices dropped almost 8 percent over five sessions following a Saudi-
Russia proposal to phase outsupply curbs that resurrected prices from the biggest crash in a
generation. Crude halted its slide Wednesday after the dollar declined by the most in three weeks,
boosting the appeal of commodities priced in the U.S. currency.
Oil had surged earlier this month, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to renew
sanctions on OPEC member Iran and as output plunged in Venezuela on an economic crisis.
While prices were then weighed down by concerns over the Saudi-Russia plan, as well as fears
over the ongoing trade friction between America and China and political turmoil in Europe,
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. kept its bullish outlook on oil, citing strong global demand.

“Oil’s still heading upward, but it’s the external factors such as uncertainties about OPEC’s next
steps, geopolitical risks and the dollar’s movement that are boosting oil’s volatility,” Will Yun, a
commodities analyst at Hyundai Futures Corp., said by phone. “We may not see oil rising to the
levels we’ve seen in May because the possibility of OPEC raising output will continue to put a lid
on prices.”
West Texas Intermediate for July delivery traded at $68.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, down 13 cents, at 11:36 a.m. in Tokyo. The contract is poised for a 0.7 percent drop
this month after an 11 percent rally in the previous two months. Total volume traded was about 39
percent below the 100-day average.
Brent futures for July settlement, which expires Thursday, dropped 0.5 percent to $77.10 a barrel
on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The more-active August contract slipped 0.3
percent. The global benchmark traded at a $9.01 premium to WTI for July. Prices are up 2.6
percent this month, slower than the pace of advance in April and March.
Oil rises to $76 as tight current supply in focus
Oil climbed to $76 a barrel on Wednesday, supported by tight supplies despite expectations
OPEC and its allies will pump more in the second half of 2018 and helped by forecasts U.S.
inventories fell.
Global benchmark Brent crude has dropped more than $4 from a 3 1/2-year high of $80.50 a
barrel on May 17, after reports that OPEC and Russia may increase supply at a June meeting,
reversing policy after 17 months of supply curbs.
Brent rose 83 cents to $76.22 a barrel by 1315 GMT, after trading as low as $74.81 earlier. U.S.
crude CLc1 was up 40 cents at $67.13. “Fundamentally, not much has changed. Oil remains well
supported, although the sweetspot has entered a mature phase,” said Konstantinos Venetis,
senior economist at TS Lombard.
Political turmoil in Italy has sent the euro to a 10-month low against the dollar on concern a snap
election would lead to a eurosceptic government in Rome. A stronger dollar makes dollar-
denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
“A dearth of bullish catalysts will make hard work of any recovery,” said Stephen Brennock of oil
broker PVM.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers led by Russia
have had a pact to curb output by about 1.8 million barrels per day since January 2017, driving
down inventories and pushing up oil prices.
Amid concerns the price rally has gone too far, Saudi Arabia and Russia are discussing raising
OPEC and non-OPEC oil output by around 1 million bpd, sources told Reuters on May 25. OPEC
meets in Vienna on June 22.
Still, some analysts remain cautious as the details have yet to be worked out. Ministers from Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates meet this weekend, a source said.
“Clarity will likely take some time to emerge,” said JBC Energy.
Lending some support to prices were expectations that U.S. crude inventories probably fell by 1.8
million barrels last week according to a Reuters poll.
Industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) releases its weekly supply report at 2030 GMT
on Wednesday, followed by the official government data on Thursday.

US record oil exports
Record crude oil volumes exported from the United States will be heading to Asia in the next
couple of months to take another piece of the market away from Russia and producers in the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
 Record crude oil volumes exported from the United States will be heading to Asia in the
next couple of months.
 The supply will take another piece of the market away from Russia and producers in the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
 The United States is set to export 2.3 million barrels per day in June, of which about 1.3
million bpd will head to Asia.
The United States is set to export 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, of which 1.3 million
bpd will head to Asia, estimated a senior executive with a key U.S. oil exporters.
Data from the Energy Information Administration shows U.S. oil exports peaked at 2.6 million bpd
two weeks ago.
The record outbound volumes come as U.S. crude production hit all-time highs, depressing U.S.
prices to discounts of more than $9 a barrel below Brent crude futures on Monday, the widest in
more than three years and opening an arbitrage for excess supplies to other markets.
The difference in the key benchmarks was a chance for Asian refiners to reduce light crude
imports from the Middle East and Russia after Brent and Gulf prices touched multi-year highs,
traders in Asia said.
"We're diversifying a lot to other regions. If Saudi Aramco still doesn't reduce prices next month
and ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) follows, we will increase our U.S. crude
purchases," a Southeast Asian oil buyer said.
China buys American
In Asia, China — led by Sinopec, the region's largest refiner — is the biggest lifter of U.S. crude.
The company, after cutting Saudi imports, has bought a record 16 million barrels (533,000 bpd) of
U.S. crude, to load in June, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.
India and South Korea are the next biggest buyers in Asia, each lifting 6 million to 7 million barrels
in June, sources tracking U.S. crude sales to Asia said. Indian Oil Corp. bought 3 million barrels

earlier this month via a tender, while Reliance Industries purchased up to 8 million barrels, the
sources said, although it wasn't clear if Reliance's cargoes would all load in June.
U.S. exports to Thailand will increase to at least 2 million barrels. State oil company PTT PCL is 1
million barrels of WTI Midland, while Thai Oil and Esso Thailand bought at least 500,000 barrels of
Bakken crude each, said traders with knowledge of the country's crude deals.
But even if Asia and Europe are keen to take more U.S. crude, the record volumes are straining
export infrastructure in the United States, limiting its ability to pump and ship more oil.
"Tight (shale) oil's been eating OPEC's lunch for the last few years. The lack of infrastructure will
temporarily cede market share back to OPEC," R.T. Dukes, head of U.S. Lower 48 oil supply at
Wood Mackenzie said in a note last week.

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 03 Sep. 2017
Electric Vehicles on the Road Are Set to Triple in Two Years
Bloomberg + CNBC + NewBase
Teslas and Nissan Leafs are likely to become a much more common sight on the world’s roads in
the next two years, the International Energy Agency says. The global fleet of electric vehicles is
likely to more than triple to 13 million by the end of the decade from 3.7 million last year, according
to a report released Wednesday from the Paris-based institution, which was set up to advise
industrial nations on energy policy.
Sales may soar 24 percent each year on average through to 2030. The findings illustrate the
speed at which the world’s transportation system is shifting toward cleaner fuels as governments
focus on limiting pollution and greenhouse gases.
Tesla Inc. and Nissan Motor Co. have some of the best known EVs on the road now, but major
automakers from Volkswagen AG to General Motors Co. and Audi AG have followed suit in
announcing dozens of battery-powered versions of their models.
“The dynamic policy developments that are characterizing the electric car market are expected to
mobilize investments in battery production, facilitating cost reductions and ensuring that battery
production takes place at scales that exceed significantly what has been seen so far,” said
Pierpaolo Cazzola, senior energy and transport analyst at the IEA and one of the authors of the
report.
Here are some of the key findings of the IEA’s report: 1
Electric vehicles will grow from 3 million to 125 million by 2030,
International Energy Agency forecasts
 The number of electric vehicles on the road around the world will hit 125 million by 2030,
the International Energy Agency forecasts.
 The world's fleet of electric vehicles grew 54 percent to about 3.1 million in 2017.
 The IEA says government policy will continue to be the linchpin for electric vehicle
adoption.

There will be enough electric cars on the road for roughly every person in Japan — the world's
11th most populous country — in just more than two decades, according to the International
Energy Agency (IEA).
Electric vehicle (EV) ownership will balloon to about 125 million by 2030, spurred by policies that
encourage drivers, fleets and municipalities to purchase clean-running cars, the policy advisor to
energy-consuming nations forecast on Wednesday.
That marks a big jump from 2017, when the IEA estimated there were 3.1 million electric vehicles
in use, up 54 percent from the previous year.
IEA's 22-year outlook still leaves plenty of room for fossil fuel-powered vehicles. Forecasts put the
world's total car count at roughly 2 billion somewhere in the 2035 to 2040 window.
However, the IEA also sees a pathway to 220 million electric vehicles by 2030, provided the world
takes a more aggressive approach to fighting climate change and cutting emissions than currently
planned.
While battery costs are falling, the IEA acknowledges that government policy remains critical to
making EVs attractive to drivers, spurring investment and helping carmakers achieve economies
of scale.
"The uptake of electric vehicles is still largely driven by the policy environment," the IEA said in the
report. "The 10 leading countries in electric vehicle adoption all have a range of policies in place to
promote the uptake of electric cars."
Policies in place today will make China and Europe the biggest adopters, in the IEA's view. In
China, credits and subsidies will help EVs grow to account for more than a quarter of the car
market by 2030. Meanwhile, tightening emissions standards and high fuel taxes in Europe will
boost the vehicles to 23 percent of the market.

As for the United States, the IEA sees electric vehicle deployment growing at two speeds. While it
sees "rapid market penetration" in places like California and other states with zero emissions
plans, relatively low taxes on fuels and the Trump administration's intentions to scale back vehicle
emissions standards could hold back growth.
China is already becoming a behemoth in the space. New electric car sales surged by 72 percent,
or 580,000 units, in 2017, pushing total ownership over 1 million vehicles. The country is also
driving growth in electric buses and two-wheeled vehicles, accounting for about 99 percent of the
world's stock of the fast-growing categories.
Still, Germany and Japan posted the biggest electric vehicle growth in 2017, with electric vehicle
sales more than doubling from 2016.
There are also regional differences when it comes to the type of electric vehicles consumers are
gravitating towards. The IEA measured the strongest orientation to pure battery electric vehicles in
China, France and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, Japan, Sweden and the United Kingdom have the
highest share of plug-in hybrid cars.
Norway remains the leader when it comes to market share. Electric vehicles accounted for 39
percent of Norway's new car sales last year, and 6.4 percent of the country's cars are powered by
electricity. That makes Norway the leader in both categories.
But in another sign of the importance of policy, Norway is the only member of the IEA's Electric
Vehicles Initiative that saw annual sales volume and market share fall between 2013 and 2017.
The IEA chalks up those declines to a change in the way the tax system treats private use of
company cars and the end of tax incentives last year for plug-in hybrids.
A bite out of oil demand
 Electric vehicles are expected to be 30% of new car sales by 2040, up from 1% today,
forecasts IHS Markit.
 By 2025 there should be 36 million electric vehicles on the road.

 EVs, fuel efficiency standards and ride-sharing are trends that will reduce oil consumption
in the years ahead. Demand for oil will grow slower, as a result, starting in the next decade.
The Nio EP9 self-driving concept electric vehicle (EV) is displayed during the media day of 17th
Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition on April 19, 2017 in Shanghai, China.
The electric vehicle market is tiny, but it's created some very big questions about the future of
gasoline demand.
Morgan Stanley analysts Wednesday issued a forecast for global miles driven rising to 32 trillion
by 2030, up from 11 trillion currently, with emerging markets a big driver of the growth. They say
that forecast is not only bullish for electric cars and light trucks, but also for gains by gasoline-
fueled vehicles.
"Even allowing for an aggressive penetration of EVs, we forecast gasoline demand for light vehicle
transport to roughly triple by the mid-2030s before beginning a slow decline," the Morgan Stanley
analysts wrote. "It's little wonder why the Chinese government is so focused on encouraging the
development of a sustainable electric transport ecosystem on the grounds of energy security and
environmental sustainability."
Electric cars and light trucks, including hybrids, in the last year displaced only about 50,000
barrels a day of oil in a world that is using 100 million barrels a day for the first time this year,
according to IHS Markit. That's small, but energy experts say when combined with other trends,
like fuel economy standards, the reduction in oil demand will start to add up.
"We have [electric vehicles] going up to be 30 percent of new car sales by 2040 from 1 percent
now," said Jim Burkhard, who heads oil research and energy and mobility research at IHS Markit.
Last year, he said there were 2.8 million electric cars on the road compared to 1.5 billion oil fueled
vehicles, and the electric vehicles could reach 36 million by 2025.
"Each year it will impact more and more…There's no doubt about that but the bigger demand
story is fuel economy. EVs on their own are not disruptive," he said. He said the fuel efficiency

efforts around the world alone should result in savings of 18 million barrels a day of fossil fuels by
2040.
Disrupting a global market
Ride sharing is what could be disruptive for the traditional car market, and so could self-driving
cars. When the Ubers and Lyfts of the world have a self-driving fleet, running electric cars, that will
certainly make a dent in gasoline demand.
"About a third of global oil demand is from cars, and 40 percent of the growth since the year 2000
has come from cars. So what happens with cars is going to have a big impact on oil demand,"
said Burkhard.
In a recent report on electric vehicles and energy, the World Economic Forum said automated
vehicles could ultimately be 40 percent cheaper to drive per mile than a vehicle with an internal
combustion engine.
"Mobility service companies, especially with driverless technology — that's the case where electric
vehicle sales could have a commercial footing," said Burkhard.
"We think the first driverless car services will start to materialize in the next year or two…It's not
10 years from now. If that grows and people accept it, and the public gets confidence in it, that will
grow quite a bit in the next decade."
IHS Markit hosts the annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston next week, and electric
vehicles and the future of transportation will be a big topic. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas,
who authored the report and has been bullish on Tesla for many years, will appear there on a
panel.
The Morgan Stanley analysts said they believe the amount of miles driven globally will rise so
much because the costs of driving will drop due to shared mobility and automated technologies.

"Our conviction in the growth in miles 'pie' offers room to be constructive on EV penetration while
allowing for continued growth in global gasoline demand deep into the 2030s," they wrote.
Future prospects
According to IHS, 2035 U.S. cars will continue to lag Europe and China in terms of fuel efficiency.
By 2035, U.S. vehicles will get 29.1 miles to the gallon compared to China's 41.7 mpg. U.S.
drivers will be covering 3.5 trillion miles that year, with 161 billion miles from ride hailing. In China,
drivers will be driving 2.9 trillion miles with 485 billion from ride hailing.
Burkhard said global oil demand is expected to average 100 million barrels a day for the first time
this year, up from 98.2 million barrels a day on average last year. Demand is expected to grow by
1.9 million barrels a day, up from 1.8 million barrels a day last year, but growth is peaking and it
should be about 1.6 million barrels a day next year.
But overall demand could peak at about 113 billion million barrels a day by the mid-2030s and
then begin to slope down in 2040.
"About a third of global oil demand is from cars, and 40 percent of the growth since the year 2000
has come from cars. So what happens with cars is going to have a big impact on oil demand,"
Burkhard
Bank of America Merrill Lynch recently predicted that the impact of electric vehicles will start
showing up in the oil market in the next decade. BofA analysts say they expect oil demand to stay
strong through 2020, expanding at an annual rate of 1.3 million barrels a day. Growth in demand
would then slows down quickly in the 2021-23 period to just 800,0000 as the effect of electric
vehicles starts to show up.
"I think just naturally China has a very strong inclination for EVs for a number of reasons. One of
these is obviously carbon commitment but then there is the environmental pollution locally which
is exasperated by internal combustion engines," Blanch said. "China has become the world's
largest oil importer a few years ago."
Dan Pickering, co-president of Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co and CIO, said the electric vehicle
and ride sharing phenomena should flatten out global oil demand by the mid-2030s.
"Everybody's got a prognostication on when oil's going to peak. My view is 2035. I view it as more
of a plateau than a peak," he said. "I think the way you get there is through massive efficiencies
and electric vehicles. The mandates don't start happening until then globally. It's hard to how it
happens much faster than that unless there's some crazy economic slowdown or some major
technological breakthrough.

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and
sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Thank you for sharing with us your comments and thoughts on the above issue, similarly we would like to share with our daily publications on Energy news via
own NewBase Energy News –
https://www.slideshare.net/khdmohd/new-base-29-may-2018-energy-news-issue-1174-by-khaled-al-awadi
Call us for details khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Your Energy Consultant for the GCC area
Khaled Al Awadi

For Your Recruitments needs and Top Talents, please seek our approved agents below

New base 31 may 2018 energy news issue 1175 by khaled al awadi

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Similar to New base 31 may 2018 energy news issue 1175 by khaled al awadi

Similar to New base 31 may 2018 energy news issue 1175 by khaled al awadi (20)

More from Khaled Al Awadi

More from Khaled Al Awadi (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

New base 31 may 2018 energy news issue 1175 by khaled al awadi