New base 26 october 2021 energy news issue 1466 by khaled al awadi

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NewBase Energy News 26 October No. 1466 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Saudi Arabia pledges 2060 target of net-zero emissions of CO2
NewBase + Bloomberg + Reuters
Saudi Arabia, One of the world’s largest oil producers, announced Saturday 23/10/2021 it aims to
reach “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2060, joining more than 100 countries in a global
effort to try and curb man-made climate change.
Although the kingdom will aim to reduce emissions within its own borders, there is no indication
Saudi Arabia will slow down investments in oil and gas or relinquish sway over energy markets by
moving away from the production of fossil fuels.
Energy exports form the backbone of Saudi Arabia’s economy, despite efforts to diversify revenue
as the world increasingly looks to transition away from reliance on fossil fuels. The country is
forecast to make $150 billion in revenue this year from oil alone.
The announcement, made by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in scripted remarks at the start
of the kingdom’s first-ever Saudi Green Initiative Forum, was timed to make a splash before the
start of the global COP26 climate conference being held in Glasgow, Scotland.
The prince vowed Saudi Arabia will plant 450 million trees and rehabilitate huge swaths of land by
2030, reducing more than 270 million tons of carbon emissions a year and attempting to turn the
landlocked city of Riyadh into a more sustainable capital.
The kingdom joins the ranks of Russia and China on their stated net-zero target date of 2060. The
United States and the European Union have aimed for 2050. In making the announcement, analysts
say the kingdom ensures its continued seat at the table in global climate change talks.
Saudi Arabia has pushed back against those who say fossil fuels must be urgently phased out,
warning that a premature switch could lead to price volatility and shortages. Recently leaked
documents show how the kingdom and other nations are lobbying behind the scenes ahead of the
COP26 summit to change language around emissions.

In transitioning domestically, the kingdom could also take the oil and gas that it subsidizes locally
and allocate it as a more lucrative export to China and India, where demand is expected to grow in
the coming years.
“The kingdom’s economic growth is driven by export of its energy sources. It’s no state secret,”
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the forum in Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia says it will reach net-zero through a so-called “Carbon Circular Economy” approach,
which advocates “reduce, reuse, recycle and remove.” It is an unpopular strategy among climate
change activists because it touts still unreliable carbon capture and storage technologies rather than
honing in on the phasing out of fossil fuels.
The announcement provided few details on how the kingdom will cut its emissions in the short- and
medium term, including when it will peak its emissions. Experts say sharp cuts are needed
worldwide as soon as possible to ensure the world has a chance of capping global warming at 1.5
degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) as agreed in the 2015 Paris accord.
The kingdom — home to roughly 17% of proven petroleum reserves — supplies some 10% of global
oil demand. As OPEC’s heavyweight, Saudi Arabia holds tremendous influence over energy
markets and can pressure other producers to fall in line, as seen last year when the
kingdom triggered a price war that successfully got Russia to curb its production amid a slowdown
in demand from the pandemic.
Saudi Arabia said the transition to net zero carbon emissions “will be delivered in a manner that
preserves the kingdom’s leading role in enhancing the security and stability of global energy
markets.”
Gulf oil producers argue against the rapid phasing out of fossil fuels by saying that a hurried shift
would hurt low-income nations and populations that lack access to basic energy. Saudi Arabia also

advocates for language that refers to greenhouse gases, a basket that includes more than just fossil
fuels.
“We believe that carbon capture, utilization and storage, direct air capture, hydrogen and low carbon
fuel are the things that will develop the necessary ingredients to really make sure this effort will be
inclusive,” Prince Abdulaziz said of the global energy transition.
Earlier this month, the United Arab Emirates — another major Gulf Arab energy producer —
announced it too would join the “net zero” club of nations by 2050. The UAE, home to the region’s
first nuclear power plant, did not announce specifics on how it will reach this target.
Leaked documents, first reported by the BBC, show how Saudi Arabia and other countries, including
Australia, Brazil and Japan, are apparently trying to water down an upcoming U.N. science panel
report on global warming before the COP26 summit.
Greenpeace, which obtained the leaked documents, said Saudi Arabia is enabling nations to
continue burning fossil fuels by pushing carbon capture technology. The group says these “as-yet
unproven technologies” would allow nations to emit more greenhouse gases on the optimistic
assumption that they could draw them out of the atmosphere later. Fossil fuels, such as crude oil,
natural gas and coal, currently make the bulk of global energy consumption. Just 10% of electricity
is generated by solar power and wind.
On Saturday, Prince Abdulaziz said every nation’s approach to cut emissions will look different.
“No one should be too facetious about what tool in the kit that everybody would have,” he said. “But
if your tools in your kit and mine delivers emissions reductions, that’s the ask and that’s the
objective,” he said.
Britain’s Prince Charles was among those participating in the Riyadh forum. In virtual remarks, he
pointed to how the Middle East’s temperatures are also rising, threatening the region’s habitability.
President Joe Biden’s climate envoy, John Kerry, is expected in Riyadh on Sunday and Monday,
where he will meet with officials and take part in the three-day forum.

QatarEnergy, H2Korea sign hydrogen energy agreement
GulfNews + NewAbase
QatarEnergy and Korea’s Hydrogen Convergence Alliance (H2Korea) signed an agreement for
cooperation in the field of hydrogen energy.
The agreement provides a framework of cooperation in the development of the hydrogen sector in
both countries, encouraging growth of the hydrogen industry and expansion of the hydrogen supply
chain, in addition to supporting efforts within multilateral fora to accelerate cooperation for hydrogen
related technologies worldwide.
Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of
QatarEnergy, and Sung-Wook Moon, the Minister for Trade, Industry and Energy in Korea
witnessed the signing of the agreement, during their meeting in Doha.
Al-Kaabi hailed the solid ties and historical long-term partnership between Qatar and Korea in the
field of energy and expressed the mutual desire of the two countries to further build and expand on
this partnership for many decades to come.
Al-Kaabi said: “We are pleased to sign this agreement on hydrogen to expand our strong relations
into new horizons of cleaner energy including our long-established strategic partnership in the field
of liquefied natural gas.
We believe hydrogen has an important role to play in the energy transition towards an affordable,
reliable and clean energy system, but only if relevant competent entities, such as QatarEnergy and
H2Korea, join hands to achieve this goal.”
The Hydrogen Convergence Alliance (H2Korea) is a public-private consultative body established by
the Korean government in 2017 to promote and develop the hydrogen industry with the aim of
achieving an early hydrogen economy society in the Republic of Korea and to act as a bridge
between the public and the private sector by exploring policy tasks, supporting businesses,
international cooperation projects, and public relations projects.

Iraq to invest $3bn a year to switch to gas-powered generation
The National - Jennifer Gnana
Iraq, Opec's second-largest producer, plans to invest $3 billion annually to replace the burning of
liquids at its power plants with natural gas, the country's deputy minister said. "We're also drawing
policies to stop burning accompanying gas [flared gas] that will stop for good by 2025," said Ali
Allawi, who is also the country's finance minister.
He was speaking at the Middle East Green Initiative Forum taking place in Riyadh and being
streamed virtually. "We are working on providing a budget of $3bn every year to replace all of the
liquid oil that is used in electricity generation plants in order to work with natural gas," he said.
Iraq plans to eliminate gas flaring by 2022. The World Bank estimates about 16 billion cubic metres
of gas from Iraqi fields were flared in 2015, costing the economy billions in lost revenue. Baghdad
is also working on reducing its methane emissions before the Cop26 meeting on climate change in
Glasgow, which starts on Sunday.
Curbing methane emissions has become a top priority for policymakers looking to mitigate climate
change as it is far more potent than carbon dioxide, which is more commonly cited as the biggest
contributor to global warming.
Iraq's economy is overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenue, which meets up to 90 per cent of
government expenditure. The country is most at risk from the global transition to net zero by the
middle of the century, which will effectively end longer-term investments in hydrocarbons.

Mr Allawi along with the executive director of the International Energy Agency previously called on
the international community to support Iraq in its transition to cleaner forms of energy in an op-ed
published in The Guardian.
The country has begun investing in solar energy and looks to tap up to 10 gigawatts of energy from
the sun by 2025. In June, Abu Dhabi's Masdar signed an agreement with Iraq’s National Investment
Commission to develop photovoltaic projects with a minimum capacity of two gigawatts.
At the forum, Mr Allawi highlighted Iraq's role in helping to bolster food security in the region through
agricultural exports before its invasion by the US in 2003.
"We used to have a budget since the establishment of Iraq and until recently we can remember that
it depended on our agricultural exports. We were the main contributor to the food security of our
region," he said.
"Whether we like it or not, the possibility of depending only on oil will not last forever, because the
international economy is changing and this will be a burden, especially a burden for our oil-exporting
countries."
He called on the international community to help rentier economies such as Iraq through funding
and transfer of knowledge to combat climate change.
Iraq has taken tentative steps to restructure its economy away from fossil-fuel dependency as the
world prepares to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
A white paper on economic reform submitted to Parliament by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al
Kadhimi's government last year recommended phasing out subsidies to critical sectors in Iraq's
economy, notably power.

Asia crude oil imports recover in October, China stays weak
By Clyde Russell (Reuters) –
Crude oil demand in Asia, the world’s top importing region, is showing renewed signs of life, with
October imports expected to be the highest in seven months and back to pre-pandemic levels.
The region’s crude imports this month are estimated at 24.98 million barrels per day (bpd) by
Refinitiv Oil Research, which will be the most since March and also exceed the pre-coronavirus
level of 24.53 million bpd from October 2019, as well as the pandemic-affected 23.45 million bpd
from October 2020.
October’s arrivals are up a strong 1.81 million bpd from September’s 23.17 million bpd.
But the robust gain in Asia’s imports this month masks a continuing weak picture for China, the
world’s top oil buyer.
China’s imports are estimated at 9.79 million bpd for October, down a touch from official customs
figures for September of 10.03 million bpd and below the 10.53 million bpd for August.
China’s crude oil demand continues to be affected by a broader energy shortage, which has seen
the world’s second-biggest economy implement production cuts and power rationing in energy-
intensive industries such as steel and aluminium.
Oil refining has also suffered, with daily throughput dropping to 13.64 million bpd in September, the
lowest since May 2020, with independent refiners unable to source crude as import quotas became
exhausted and product demand affected by weakness in downstream users.

While more import quotas were issued on Oct. 15, the total for 2021 for independent refiners will be
below those for last year, the first time quotas have been lowered on an annual basis since the
system was implemented in 2015.
It’s also worth noting that there is now a narrow window for refiners to arrange cargoes for delivery
prior to the end of December, which has seen an upsurge of interest in buying Russian ESPO crude,
given its considerably shorter transit time from the eastern port of Kozmino to China compared to
shipping times from the Middle East.
INDIA REBOUND
The revival in Asia’s crude demand has been led by India, Japan and South Korea, with the three
biggest importers in the region after China all recording solid gains in October imports.
India is expected to land 4.19 million bpd in October, up from September’s 3.88 million, as the South
Asian nation starts to revive its economy after ongoing coronavirus outbreaks had led to lockdowns.
Japan’s October imports are forecast at 3.01 million bpd, which would be the highest this year as
the country builds up products ahead of the northern winter demand peak.
South Korea presents a similar picture to Japan, with its October arrivals estimated at 2.99 million
bpd, as it also ensures sufficient winter supplies, and as its economy starts to move to a full re-
opening from the coronavirus pandemic.

The strength in Asia’s October imports will go some way to reversing the recent trend of weak
outcomes, which had put the region at odds with the prevailing global oil market narrative of a
tightening supply-demand balance.
However, it’s worth noting that some of Asia’s revival is seasonal and this will ease once winter
passes.
Another potential factor has been the incentive for utilities, especially in Japan and South Korea, to
undertake switching from coal for power generation to oil, given thermal coal’s massive price spike
has eroded the polluting fuel’s price advantage over crude.
Again, any increased demand for power generation is likely temporary, and will last only as long as
coal prices remain elevated, and they are likely to ease by the first quarter of next year as winter
demand ends.
The current high crude prices may also act as a disincentive for imports, especially in price-sensitive
buyers such as India, and increasingly China where the authorities in Beijing have signalled they
will auction oil from the strategic reserve in order to dampen prices and cut imports.
Global benchmark Brent futures were at $85.70 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday, and are
up about 33% since the most recent low point of $64.60 in late August.
Coincidentally, many of the October-arriving cargoes in Asia would have been arranged in August
at prices that are well below those currently prevailing.
Whether the present higher prices crimp crude demand for delivery early next year remains to be
seen, but certainly the message from physical traders is that Asian refiners are well supplied and
not having to compete to secure cargoes.

NewBase October 26-2021 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Brent Oil Steadies as Investors Weigh Stockpiles, OPEC+ Policy
(Bloomberg) + NewBase
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after rising earlier in the day and analysts said prices were set
to sustain a rally driven by strong demand in the United States, the world’s biggest consumer of oil
and its products.
Brent crude was down 15 cents at $85.84 a barrel by 0931 GMT, after gaining 0.5% on Monday.
U.S. oil dropped 12 cents to $83.64 a barrel, having finished unchanged the previous session after
testing new highs.
While China’s red-hot power and coal markets have cooled somewhat after government
intervention, energy prices remain elevated worldwide as temperatures fall with the onset of the
northern winter.
Oil price special
coverage

“Forecasts for a colder November have energy traders bracing for a very tight market that will be
met (with) unprecedented demand this winter,” OANDA senior market analysts Edward Moya said
in a note.
Goldman Sachs said Brent was likely to push above its year-end forecast of $90 a barrel. The bank
estimated switching to oil from gas may add 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to oil demand. Gasoline
and distillate consumption is back in line with five-year averages in the United States after more
than a year of depressed demand.
The market will be closely watching U.S. inventory levels this week. Crude oil stockpiles are forecast
to have risen by 1.7 million barrels last week, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. Gasoline and
distillate inventories were expected to fall, however.
“Limited global oil supplies and signs of increasing demand would continue to see elevated crude
oil prices,” said Avtar Sandu, senior manager, commodities at Phillip Futures in Singapore.
Sandu said traders were also awaiting clarity on the outcome of talks between Iran and Western
powers after the United States said efforts were at “crucial phase” to revive a 2015 nuclear
agreement with Iran, which could open the way for exports of its crude.
OPEC and its allies are due to gather next week to assess output policy. Russia expects the alliance
will agree to increase production by just 400,000 barrels a day at the Nov. 4 meeting, as previously
agreed, Reuters reported, citing Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. That follows weekend
comments from Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that producers should remain cautious.
Oil is set for a monthly gain in October, building on six quarterly advances, as global demand
recovers from the impact of the pandemic and a broader energy crunch supports gains. At the same
time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have eased supply curbs only
gradually. That’s lifted prices, cut inventories, and enabled key time spreads to balloon.
“I think there is a big-and-growing bandwagon of oil bulls who need very little to keep their
conviction,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.

NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world – Oct - 26- -2021
Solar’s Growth Stumbles Just as the World Needs It Most
Dan Murtaugh and Maxwell Adler (Bloomberg)
Cracks are emerging in the global solar industry, threatening to flatten its growth trajectory just as
the world needs clean power more than ever.
The sector is being slammed by a barrage of obstacles, with rising materials costs, forced labor
accusations and a worsening trade war all hitting at once. As a result, panel prices are rising for the
first time in years, and some manufacturers have asked buyers to delay purchases if they can.
And although annual installations are still ticking higher, Wall Street warns the pace of expansion
may slow sharply if those hurdles continue unchecked.
“The shocks to the system in the last two to three months are more or less unprecedented,” said
Jenny Chase, an analyst with BloombergNEF. “We need to get to net zero as soon as possible, and
to do that we just need so much solar and wind. We’re not on track; we need to ramp all this stuff
up dramatically.”
These setbacks may only be temporary, with delays in installations expected to be largely resolved
by the end of 2022 when new solar factories help ease supply chain issues. But any snag in the
sector’s rollout will have lasting effects, with the emissions from the fossil fuels burned instead
trapping heat in the atmosphere for decades.
Solar provided just 3.3% of the world’s electricity in 2020. BloombergNEF estimates that to be on
target for net-zero by 2050, the world needs to add 455 gigawatts of solar every year through 2030.
Last year was a record—and it only added 144 gigawatts. The recent stumbles are hitting right

before the United Nations’ COP26 climate talks begin later this month, viewed by many as a
crucial—and last-ditch—effort to curb global warming.
It was easy to be optimistic about solar coming into the year. Joe Biden’s ascendance to the
presidency, China’s 2060 net-zero pledge and Europe’s Green Deal meant that for the first time, all
three dominant economies supported an energy transition at the same time.
And thanks to decades of painstaking work by researchers and companies, solar can now produce
energy cheaper than fossil fuels in most of the world. Even the technology’s Achilles’ heel—the sun
doesn’t always shine—was on the way to being solved by improvements in batteries.
Demand has mostly held up its end of the bargain. But the supply chain hasn’t been able to match
it. Largely to blame is polysilicon, an ultra-conductive material that’s refined in factories, mostly in
China, using caustic chemicals and copious amounts of mostly coal-derived energy. And with
demand for panel production so robust, there isn’t enough of it to go around.
As early as January, BOCI Research Ltd. analyst Tony Fei warned that polysilicon factories could
only make enough of the material for 170 gigawatts of panels, far less than some of the most bullish
estimates were calling for.
His call proved prescient, and prices of polysilicon quadrupled from mid-2020 to mid-2021. Now, a
power crunch spurred by a shortage of coal has cut supplies of the metal used to make polysilicon,
sending prices even higher. Rising steel, aluminum and freight costs are also adding up, and solar
panel prices are on track for their first annual price rise since 2013.
Those hurdles are starting to show up in analysts’ forecasts. Guggenheim Securities LLC just
removed its buy rating on four solar stocks, citing rising risks to 2022 revenue it says aren’t yet
reflected in consensus estimates.
Earlier this month, Daiwa Capital Markets lowered its forecast for 2021 installations by 15 gigawatts,
more than enough clean energy to power every home in New Jersey, with that capacity delayed
until next year. Morgan Stanley and Citigroup have both cautioned about near-term panel demand

in China, the world’s biggest solar market, while the U.S. will grow its pace of installations just 3.2%
next year after a 58% jump in 2021, says BloombergNEF.
“We think that input costs are starting to impact 2022 project timing,” Guggenheim analysts Joseph
Osha and Hilary Cauley wrote in a research note. Amid rising costs, “projects that looked marginal
when contracts were signed now look unviable.”
Polysilicon is also at the center of a second controversy. Nearly half the world’s supply is made in
Xinjiang, a region in western China facing allegations of forced labor and human rights abuses
against the ethnic Uyghur Muslim population there.
That hit the solar world in June, when the Biden administration blocked imports of materials made
by Hoshine Silicon Industry Co., which supplies feedstock material to several polysilicon makers.
U.S. customs agents soon began issuing withhold-release orders (WRO) to detain China-linked
solar panels at the border, and the issue hasn’t been resolved in the months since.
“There’s lots of uncertainty in the industry because they do not know how strict the WRO
enforcement will be, or currently is,” said Kelsey Goss, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie who
specializes in global solar supply chain and technology.
Shortly after the first detainments, a second trade fissure opened between China and the U.S. when
a group of unnamed solar companies appealed to the Biden Administration to extend Obama-era
anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese solar panels to those made by Chinese-owned firms in Thailand,
Malaysia and Vietnam—where the U.S. gets nearly 80% of its panels.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has yet to decide whether it will even investigate the appeal,
but just the threat of the case has caused some companies to stop sending panels to the U.S.,
according to the Solar Energy Industries Association trade group.
“This had an immediate chilling effect on the market,” said George Hershman, president of
Swinerton Renewable Energy. “Manufacturers started to hold orders immediately.”

China’s five biggest panel makers, which account for around half the world’s supply, last month
asked customers in an open letter to delay purchases to avoid supply chain carnage. Now, some
U.S. solar construction companies have started sending workers home because there are no panels
available, according to Roth Capital Partners.
Of course, it’s not all doom and gloom with solar. Even with the price hikes, solar panels are still
cheaper now than they were in October 2018, and installations keep inching higher. New polysilicon
factories and an eventual end to China’s power crunch promise to bring prices back down by 2023
at the latest.
And even amid all the hubbub, solar companies continued to improve their technology and
manufacturing efficiency this year, promising continued cost improvements in the future. Not to
mention that solar’s biggest competitor, fossil fuels, are mired in their own supply issues that have
sent coal and natural gas prices to record levels.
That’s scant relief, though, for installers like India’s Gautam Das, trying to add solar capacity today.
Das, 47, who left his job as head of Treasury products at Citibank India to start solar developer
Oorjan Cleantech in 2016, is projecting revenue to grow five-fold this year.
But he’s faced a hiccup recently when the price of modules in India jumped by about 20%. The
company took hits to its profit on some projects and shared the increased cost with customers on
others.
For some developments, he said, there was no choice but to delay installation and hope prices fall
in a few months, which is bad news for both the customers and overall emissions.
“As a country, and as an entrepreneur, I believe more solar is better and faster is better,” he said.
“But a 20% jump in a month, that’s a big uncertainty and a big hindrance to solar adoption.”

NewBase Energy News 26 October 2021 - Issue No. 1466 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
NewBase energy news is produced Twice a week and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE.
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About: Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
www.linkedin.com/in/khaled-al-awadi-38b995b
Mobile: +971504822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net or khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with over 30 years of experience in the Oil & Gas
sector. Has Mechanical Engineering BSc. & MSc. Degrees from leading U.S.
Universities. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General
Petroleum Corp. “Emarat “with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC
area via Hawk Energy Service, as the UAE operations base. Khaled is the Founder
of NewBase Energy news articles issues, an international consultant, advisor,
ecopreneur and journalist with expertise in Gas & Oil pipeline Networks, waste
management, waste-to-energy, renewable energy, environment protection and
sustainable development. His geographical areas of focus include Middle East,
Africa and Asia. Khaled has successfully accomplished a wide range of projects in
the areas of Gas & Oil with extensive works on Gas Pipeline Network Facilities &
gas compressor stations. Executed projects in the designing & constructing of gas
pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of gas/oil supply routes. Has drafted &
finalized many contracts/agreements in products sale, transportation, operation & maintenance agreements.
Along with many MOUs & JVs for organizations & governments authorities. Currently dealing for biomass
energy, biogas, waste-to-energy, recycling and waste management. He has participated in numerous
conferences and workshops as chairman, session chair, keynote speaker and panelist. Khaled is the Editor-
in-Chief of NewBase Energy News and is a professional environmental writer with more than 1400 popular
articles to his credit. He is proactively engaged in creating mass awareness on renewable energy, waste
management and environmental sustainability in different parts of the world. Khaled has become a reference
for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences and for many Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC
leading satellite Channels. Khaled can be reached at any time, see contact details above.

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