Presentation made at 3rd Northeast connectivity summit, 2016 on trade aspects and Northeast connectivity by Dr.Deeparghya Mukherjee, Visiting Research Fellow, ISAS, Singapore

1. Trade aspects and North East
Connectivity
Deeparghya Mukherjee
Institute of South Asian Studies
National University of Singapore

2. North-East
• Population: 45,587,982 / 1,210,854,977= 4% (2011 census)
• Area: 262,230 km2 / 3,287,263=8%
• Arunachal Pradesh: Agriculture (37%), Other Services (12%), Construction
(9%)
• Assam: Agriculture(20%), Trade and Repair(14%), Manufacturing (11%)
• Nagaland: Crops (21%), Trade and Repair (9%), Other Services(17%)
• Manipur: Trade and Repair (10%), Agriculture (20%), Other Services (18%)
• Mizoram: Trade and Repair (12%), Agriculture(16%), Other Services (16%)
• Meghalaya: Manufacturing (24%),Trade and Repair (13%), Agriculture
(15%)
• Tripura: Agriculture (22%), Construction (17%), Trade Hotels Restaurants
(12%)
• Sikkim: Agriculture (21%), Manufacturing (33%), Construction (10%)
Major Industries: Textiles, Silk, Tourism, Trade and Repair, petroleum refining

3. North East Economy
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1,00,000
1,20,000
1,40,000
1,60,000
1,80,000
2,00,000
2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016
GDP per capita Selected NE States

4. Connectivity
• “intermodal” method of transit i.e. a mix of sea and land
transport is often more economical for transporting cargo
• Physical connectivity through road and waterways
important for enhancing trade prospects
– Kaladan Multi Modal Transport project (More than 90%
complete)
– India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway: 69 bridges and
approach roads for the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral
Highway has been initiated
– Rih Tedim Project: All weather connectivity between Mizoram
and Myanmar
– BCIM Corridor
– BTCWG- BIMSTEC Transport connectivity working group, TOR
Finalised July 2016

5. Road Network in NE
Selected State-wise Length of National Highways Constructed in India (2008-2009 to 2015-2016)
(Length in km)
States/UT
s
2008-
09
2009-
10
2010-
11
2011-
12
2012-
13
2013-
14
2014-
15
2015-
16
Arunachal
Pradesh
0.00 16.43 32.00 9.64 49.86 122.40 87.67 80.00
Assam 88.42 229.70 268.41 199.11 188.05 226.34 177.77 86.89
Manipur 19.65 14.20 36.50 56.58 58.93 74.35 45.83 6.40
Meghalaya 0.00 0.00 0.00 59.00 292.91 303.18 88.30 50.10
Mizoram 32.61 18.63 1.85 12.53 23.20 5.11 5.00 14.92
Nagaland 57.00 74.00 67.98 34.85 33.49 0.00 13.00 25.00
Tripura 9.14 5.46 14.00 10.58 19.73 2.51 18.09 0.00
Share in
total India 5% 7% 11% 10% 12% 17% 10% 4%

6. Connectivity
State-wise Length of National Highways and Number of Projects (2012-2017-upto January, 2015)
Sanctioned and Completed in India
States/UTs
Length Completed in KM
Total Length
Completed in KM
Number of Projects
Awarded/ Sanctioned
Number of projects
Completed
2 Lane 4 Lane 6/8 Lane
Arunachal
Pradesh
240.33 0.00 0.00 240.33 7 5
Assam 385.31 161.72 0.00 547.03 30 29
Manipur 162.41 5.65 0.00 168.06 16 19
Meghalaya 617.41 54.00 0.00 671.41 27 5
Mizoram 33.31 0.00 0.00 33.31 21 1
Nagaland 51.49 0.00 0.00 51.49 17 0
Tripura 32.62 0.00 41.97 74.59 0 4
Share Across
all Indian
States
17% 6% 4% 13% 11% 7%

7. India-ASEAN
• India’s growing emphasis on trade and
investment relations with the east culminated
into the “look east” policy starting with economic
liberalization in the early 1990s
– “Act East” starting 2014
• ASEAN-India FTA for goods signed in 2009 into
force 1st Jan 2010
• ASEAN India FTA for Services and investment
signed in September 2014,
– In force from July, 2015

8. India-ASEAN Trade
-
50
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US$Billions
India ASEAN Goods Trade
Imports Exports Total Trade
Brunei,
[VALUE]
Cambodia,
[VALUE]
Laos,
[VALUE]Malaysia,
[VALUE]
Philippinn
es,
[VALUE]
Myanmar,
[VALUE]
Indonesia,
[VALUE]
Singapore,
[VALUE]
Viet Nam,
[VALUE]
Thailand,
[VALUE]
2011
Brunei,
[VALUE]
Cambodia,
[VALUE]
Laos,
[VALUE]
Malaysia,
[VALUE]
Philippinn
es,
[VALUE]
Myanmar,
[VALUE]
Indonesia,
[VALUE]
Singapore,
[VALUE]
Viet Nam,
[VALUE]
Thailand,
[VALUE]
2015

9. Opportunities
• India looking to kick start the manufacturing sector
– Increasing costs in China opens a window for India to plug
into the value chain
– India can act as low cost production hub; there will be
competition from SEA- Vietnam, Cambodia etc.
• Auto parts, electronics, textiles sectors should act as
key focus points
– Length of Value chains are higher for these products and
hence easier to plug into a particular stage and further
build capabilities
• Jewellery and pharma are other sectors where
integration may increase

10. Benefits to North East
• Opportunity to develop faster through linkage
effects
• Transit routes would increase opportunities in
the travel industry
– Hotels, Transportation
• Local Handicrafts trade with ASEAN region
• Room for further investments
• Inclusive growth key to sustainable
development

11. ASEAN changing scenario
• India ASEAN FTA Limited trade creating effects
on the aggregate
• India Singapore and India Malaysia best FTAs
of India in the ASEAN region
– India Thailand FTA nearing completion
• ASEAN countries part of TPP
– Implementation to hurt India’s prospects
• RCEP- Negotiations Crucial
• ASEAN Economic Community

12. Thank You