Ne base 15 april 2018 energy news issue 1160 by khaled al awadi-

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NewBase Energy News 15 April 2018 - Issue No. 1160 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
ACWA Power, Shanghai Electric sign EPC contract
WAM/Nour Salman
SHANGHAI, 14th April, 2018 (WAM) -- Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power and China’s Shanghai Electric
have signed an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction, EPC, contract for the 700MW fourth
phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.
The contract was signed by Mohammad Abdullah Abunayyan, Chairman of ACWA Power, and Cao
Min, President of Shanghai Electric. The ceremony was attended by Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer,
Managing Director and CEO of Dubai Electricity and Water Authority, DEWA, Ali Obaid Ali Al
Dhaheri, UAE Ambassador to China, Turki Al-Madi, Saudi Arabia Ambassador to China, Zhou Bo,
Executive Vice Mayor of Shanghai Municipality, Zheng Jianhua, Chairman of Shanghai Electric
Group, in addition to representatives from Chinese banks and financial institutions, the media, and
officials from DEWA, ACWA Power, and Shanghai Electric.
"I am pleased to be here today in Shanghai for the signing of the engineering, procurement, and
construction contract for the 700MW fourth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar
Park, the largest Concentrated Solar Power, CSP, investment project in the world.
We are here today to show the strong ties between our two great nations, which have been formed
because of our shared values and our trading and economic interests. Bilateral trade between the
United Arab Emirates and the People's Republic of China has already exceeded US$35 billion in
the first nine months of 2017," said Al Tayer in his speech during the signing ceremony.
"Today’s signing ceremony is an important milestone that supports the directives of the wise
leadership represented by President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, His
Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister and Ruler of
Dubai, and His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and
Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, to achieve the objectives of the UAE

Centennial 2071, the UAE Vision 2021, and the Dubai Plan 2021 to secure a happy and better
future," added Al Tayer.
"Last month, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum gave the sign to commence
the fourth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, the largest single-site solar
park in the world, based on the Independent Power Producer model.
This marks considerable progress in our efforts to achieve the Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050
to provide 75 percent of Dubai's total power output from clean sources by 2050. This will transform
the Emirate into a global hub for clean energy and green economy; and consolidate its global
position as the city with the lowest carbon footprint in the world," he added.
The DEWA Managing Director went on to say that the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar
Park has a planned capacity of 5,000MW by 2030, with a total of US$13.6 billion dollars (AED 50
billion) in investments to accelerate diversification to clean energy. "It is a key pillar in our strategy,
considering that our ambitious targets require at least 42,000 MW of renewable energy by 2050."
According to Al Tayer, the project will feature the world’s tallest solar tower, measuring 260 metres,
with the world’s largest thermal energy storage capacity. It will provide clean energy to over 270,000
residences in Dubai, reducing 1.4 million tonnes of carbon emissions a year.
The CSP project will use two technologies to generate clean energy - the 600MW parabolic basin
complex and the 100MW solar tower, and they will cover 43 square kilometres. It involves an
investment of $3.9 billion (AED14.2 billion) and has achieved the world’s lowest Levelised Cost of
Electricity, LCOE, of 7.3 cents per kilowatt hour for CSP.

Egypt: SDX Energy announces gas discovery at Ibn Yunus-1X
Source: SDX Energy
SDX Energy has announced that a gas discovery has been made at its Ibn Yunus-1X exploration
well at South Disouq, Egypt (SDX 55% working interest and operator).
The Ibn Yunus-1X well was drilled to a total depth of 9068 feet and encountered 100.8 feet of net
conventional natural gas pay in the Abu Madi horizon, which had an average porosity in the pay
section of 28.5%. The well came in on prognosis but with a reservoir section that was of better
quality and thicker than pre-drill expectations.
The well will be completed as a producer in the Abu Madi section and then tested after the drilling
rig has moved off location. The testing is anticipated to commence between 30 and 45 days after
the rig departs, depending on the availability of testing equipment. After a successful test, it is
anticipated that the well will be connected to the infrastructure located adjacent to the original SDX
discovery in the basin, SD-1X, where production start-up is anticipated in the second half of 2018.
SDX Energy announces gas discovery at Ibn Yunus-1X well in Egypt
Paul Welch, President and CEO of SDX, commented:
'We are extremely encouraged with today's discovery, our second consecutive discovery at South
Disouq. This highly positive drilling result further demonstrates the very significant natural gas
potential the licence holds. Combined, these two successful wells confirm our views of the
subsurface geology and demonstrate that we are on course to realise the full potential of the
licence. We look forward to updating shareholders on future developments at South Disouq in due
course.'

Saudi Aramco May Have to Settle for Just a Trillion or So
By Liam Denning
Saudi Arabian Oil Co. is fantastically profitable, with net income of about $34 billion in the first half
of 2017, according to figures reviewed, more than four times what Exxon Mobil Corp. earned in that
period. Implied costs of production, including overhead and depreciation, appear to be less than
$10 a barrel.
Given that Brent crude oil averaged only about $53 a barrel back then, and Aramco was only
pumping about 9.9 million barrels of crude oil a day, the implication is this year's profits will be
positively yuge.
For prospective investors in the potential initial public offering, though, what matters is how much of
that translates into free cash flow and what kind of risk premium gets put on it.
A month ago, I did a very rough calculation of what Aramco might be worth, using a smorgasbord
of assumptions. At $80 a barrel, 11 million barrels of crude oil a day, $40 billion of annual capital
expenditure, and a 7 percent free cash flow yield, I got a valuation of just under $1.5 trillion. That's
a lot of money, albeit a bit below the $2 trillion Saudi officials appear to want.
The new data don't help on that front. Adjusting my assumptions based on these figures yields a
new valuation of about $1.2 trillion.
Where did that value go?
One big difference is how much of a royalty the Saudi Arabian government takes off the top of each
barrel of oil produced. In my earlier calculation, I assumed a flat 20 percent of revenue. Instead,
there is a sliding scale based on oil prices: 20 percent up to $70 a barrel, 40 percent on each dollar
above that to $100, and then a marginal 50 percent on the each above that.
Royal Dues
Based on my adjusted assumptions, the government's take per barrel produced by Aramco rises
from around 50 percent at $60 Brent crude, toward about 60 percent at $100 and above
Source: Bloomberg News, Bloomberg Gadfly analysis
Note: Assumes 11 million barrels of crude oil output per day. Aramco realizes 91 percent of Brent
crude oil prices and that upstream accounts for 70 percent of costs (except exploration, 100
percent). Assumptions on natural gas and other liquids as per accompanying column.

I've assumed, as before, that natural gas and ethane production remain flat and at fixed prices, as
well as natural gas liquids output being 1.4 million barrels a day at 50 percent of the crude oil price.
The figures I've seen still lack a certain amount of detail, especially in terms of the real split of
upstream and downstream profits. The figures for the first half of 2017 also include a peculiar
payment of around $21 billion, on a cash basis, from the government to Aramco. This could be one-
off but I am assuming it largely relates to reimbursing the company for subsidies on domestic fuel
sales.
Using the adjusted assumptions, here are a range of theoretical market caps for Aramco at different
oil prices and free cash flow yields:
Refining The Numbers
Implied valuations for Aramco remain closer to $1 trillion than $2 trillion, unless you assume
aggressive oil prices and a low risk premium
Source: Bloomberg News, Bloomberg Gadfly analysis
Note: Assumes crude oil production of 11 million barrels a day; downstream cash flow per barrel of
$3; realized crude oil price at 91 percent of Brent; other assumptions as per accompanying column.
It's important to remember that these outputs remain preliminary estimates that are still dependent
on a lot of assumptions. The prospectus remains an elusive but must-see document. That said, the
implied valuations still point to a few broad conclusions.
First, indications that Saudi Arabia reportedly would like to see oil at $80 make sense in the context
of the planned IPO.
Second, royalties and taxation are critical levers for the government to adjust heading into the IPO
if it wants to boost the valuation. Higher government take at higher oil prices is pretty standard
procedure in petro-states. But in removing some of the potential upside, it also removes some of
the incentive to buy (as evidenced in other national oil company valuations).
Which leads into the third point, namely that the valuation remains very sensitive to the risk premium.
A yield of about 7 percent looks like the bare minimum to me, given where other oil majors trade
and Saudi Arabia's peculiar risks. A more benign taxation regime might help on that front, albeit at
the cost of revenue flowing directly to the government.
Overall, though, a $2 trillion figure still looks very unlikely, absent triple-digit oil prices. And as this
week's geopolitical gyrations have shown, higher oil prices would likely go hand-in-hand with a
higher risk premium on Aramco's home.

U.S GOM crude production to continue at record highs through 2019
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. crude oil production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) increased slightly in 2017, reaching
1.65 million b/d, the highest annual level on record. Although briefly hindered by platform outages
and pipeline issues in December 2017, oil production in the GOM is expected to continue increasing
in 2018 and 2019, based on forecasts in the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA
expects the GOM to account for 16% of total U.S. crude oil production in each year.
Based on STEO’s expected production levels at new fields and existing fields, annual crude oil
production in the GOM will increase to an average of 1.7 million b/d in 2018 and 1.8 million b/d in
2019. However, uncertainties in oil markets may still affect long-term planning and operations in the
GOM, and the timelines of future projects may change accordingly.
In 2016, producers brought seven new projects and expansions online and ramped up production
in 2017, collectively contributing to an average of 126,000 b/d of production in 2017. Another two
projects came online in 2017, contributing 10,000 b/d of new production last year. EIA expects these
nine projects to ramp up over the next two years. Producers expect four new projects to come online
in 2018 and six more in 2019.
Because of the amount of time needed to discover and develop large offshore projects, oil
production in the GOM is less sensitive to short-term oil price movements than onshore production
in the Lower 48 states.

In 2015 and early 2016, decreasing profit margins and reduced expectations for a quick oil price
recovery prompted many GOM operators to pull back on future deepwater exploration spending
and to restructure or delay drilling rig contracts, causing average monthly rig counts to decline
through 2017.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
Recent crude oil price increases have not yet had a significant effect on operations in the GOM, but
they have the potential to contribute to increasing rig counts and field discovery in the coming years.
Unlike onshore operations, falling rig counts do not affect current production levels, but instead
affect the discovery of future
projects and fields.
In March 2018, the Bureau of
Ocean Energy Management
held a lease sale for more than
14,000 Federal Gulf of Mexico
blocks, most of which did not
receive any bids. Although the
results of this auction will not
affect GOM production within
the Short-Term Energy
Outlook forecast horizon
(through 2019), the level of
interest for leases may have
longer-term implications for
GOM crude oil production.

NewBase April 15 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Mideast Strife Sends Oil Bets to New High, Brent $72.58 a barrel
Bloomberg + NewBase
Their bets that Brent crude futures will climb reached a new high as growing tensions across the
Middle East are putting almost half of the world’s supply at risk. The escalation of strife in the region
sent the key crude benchmark to its highest in more than three years, while volatility surged.
“Clearly, emotionally, people view markets as tighter because they are actually reacting so strongly
to these tensions,” said Ashley Petersen, lead oil analyst at Stratas Advisors in New York. “There
is money to be made here again” amid heightened volatility, she said.
After fears that a U.S.-China trade spat could hurt demand fizzled, heated geopolitical stress kept
investors on their toes. U.S. President Donald Trump warned America was preparing to strike Syria,
and top oil exporter Saudi Arabia intercepted ballistic missiles fired by Yemeni rebels. OPEC
Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said he was concerned about the “geopolitical premium
re-emerging in the price” of oil.
“It’s showing there is life in general in this sector that’s worth coming into,” Petersen said. “You
combine that with the fact that, yes there is volatility, but also the outlook is generally bullish, it
makes the sector more attractive for some long positioning and for some risk-taking.”
Meanwhile in the U.S., investors weren’t so bullish on West Texas Intermediate crude because the
American benchmark doesn’t offer the same exposure to geopolitics.
Oil price special
coverage

“If you’re running a hedge fund, part of your job is to protect a portfolio from outlier events, and war
is one of those,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management
in St. Louis. “If you’re running protection for somebody why buy WTI, which is really the secondary
price for a global event.”
A look at supply levels on the global stage, on the other hand, is giving the bulls something else to
cheer about. The International Energy Agency said in a report Friday that OPEC is on the verge of
“mission accomplished” in its work to clear the oil glut.
The producer group’s compliance to its historic deal to reduce output jumped to a record 164
percent in March, and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said members
remained committed to maintaining market stability. Even Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the case
for owning commodities has rarely been stronger.
Prices have risen amid “the idea that the market is rebalancing, that demand continues to be quite
firm and let’s not forget the quite hefty decline in OPEC output,” said Bart Melek, head of global
commodity strategy at TD Securities in Toronto.
This is a real spike
Brent oil could spike to $80 a barrel if the U.S. and European Union reimpose sanctions on Iran and
as Western powers expand the scope of the Syrian civil war, JPMorgan strategists, led by John
Normand, wrote in a note on Friday. While this might ordinarily seen like a time to avoid cyclical
assets, the recent "tax gift" to U.S. corporations and consumers makes it an opportunity to own
petro assets, they said.
“Risks we thought might materialize this summer through Iran sanctions are emerging somewhat
more quickly due to events in Syria,” said the strategists. New Syrian hostilities are likely to have a
muted effect on oil, however, since the nation’s production has already fallen so deeply due to
the seven-year-long war.

A possible decision in May on Iran sanctions may be “the start of a process that maintains low-
intensity stress on oil markets that can deliver higher prices and above-average volatility," the
strategists wrote, comparing it to the Arab Spring of 2011 rather than the major oil shocks of 1973,
1979 and 1990. Since the U.S. doesn’t buy Iranian crude, it would take sanctions from the EU and
even some Asian customers to depress markets materially.
The forecast follows others calling this a good time to own energy stocks. Morgan Stanley strategist
Andrew Sheets has noted that energy “has historically been a very consistent late-cycle
outperformer.” Brian Barish of Cambiar Investors and James Paulsen of Leuthold Weeden Capital
Management have pointed to energy shares having been out of favor in recent years. Net bullish
positions in Brent futures reached a record in the week ended April 10.
JPMorgan’s strategists have positioned for higher oil prices that could last three to six months,
before U.S. shale production can respond, rather than for an acute supply cut that delivers subtrend
global growth.
“Equity and credit markets probably won’t welcome a geopolitical/supply-driven rise to $80 that
could persist for several months," they wrote, but it won’t be "an event that drives a bear market in
either.” Brent last cost $80 a barrel in November 2014.
U.S. drillers add oil rigs
U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a second week in a row, following through on plans to
spend more on drilling this year with crude prices at three-year highs, energy services firm Baker
Hughes said on Friday.
Drillers added seven oil rigs in the week to April 13, bringing the total to 815, the highest since March
2015, the General Electric Co unit said in its closely followed report. More than half the total oil rigs
are in the Permian basin in west Texas and eastern New Mexico. Active units there increased by
one this week to 445, the most since January 2015.

The U.S. government expects oil output in the Permian to rise to a record high near 3.2 million
barrels per day in April, about 30 percent of total U.S. oil production. The U.S. rig count, an early
indicator of future output, is much higher than a year ago when 683 rigs were active. Energy
companies have steadily hiked spending since mid-2016 as crude prices have recovered from a
two-year slump.
U.S. crude futures traded around $67 a barrel this week, their highest since December 2014.
Looking ahead, crude futures were trading around $66 for the balance of 2018 and $61 for calendar
2019.
In anticipation of higher prices, U.S. financial services firm Cowen & Co said 58 of the roughly 65
exploration and production (E&P) companies it tracks have already indicated an 11 percent increase
this year in planned capital spending.
Cowen said E&Ps that have reported capital plans for 2018 expected to spend a total of $80.5 billion
in 2018, up from an estimated $72.4 billion in 2017.
Analysts at Simmons & Co, energy specialists at U.S. investment bank Piper Jaffray, this week
forecast the total oil and natural gas rig count would average 1,013 in 2018 and 1,129 in 2019, the
same as last week.
So far this year, the total number of oil and natural gas rigs active in the United States has averaged
972, up sharply from an average of 876 rigs in 2017 and 509 in 2016, and not far from the total of
978 in 2015. Most rigs produce both oil and gas.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) this month projected average annual U.S.
production will rise to a record high 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 and 11.4 million bpd
in 2019 from 9.3 million bpd in 2017. The current all-time U.S. annual output peak was in 1970 at
9.6 million bpd, according to federal energy data.

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release April 15-2018
OPEC Near ‘Mission Accomplished’ as Oil Glut Vanishes, IEA Says
OPEC is on the verge of “mission accomplished” in its quest to clear the global oil glut that caused
the worst industry downturn in a generation, the International Energy Agency said.
Less than 10 percent of the surplus in oil inventories remains, as OPEC and its partners have cut
production by even more than they intended while world demand soars, said the agency. As
Venezuela’s unraveling economy hits its oil production, unplanned losses among the alliance
exceed the cut pledged by OPEC’s biggest member, Saudi Arabia.
Mission (Almost) Accomplished
Output cuts by OPEC and Russia are clearing the glut
Source: IEA
Since the start of last year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia have
been spearheading an effort by oil producers to offset the surplus unleashed by U.S. shale drillers.
Oil futures climbed to a three-year high in New York this week, moving toward $70 a barrel, as
political tensions in the Middle East threaten to strain supplies even further.
“It is not for us to declare on behalf” of OPEC “that it is ‘mission accomplished,’ but if our outlook is
accurate, it certainly looks very much like it,” the IEA said in its monthly report. The Paris-based
agency advises most of the world’s major economies on energy policy.

Oil inventories in developed nations are just 30 million barrels above their five-year average, the
measure that OPEC is using to gauge whether markets are balanced, the IEA said. That’s down
from more than 300 million barrels when the group started its cuts.
Global inventories are on track to shrink by 600,000 barrels a day from this quarter through to the
end of the year. As a result, data released in the “next month or two” could show stockpiles have
dropped below the five-year average.
Nonetheless, as OPEC gets closer to its goal, Saudi Arabia is increasingly eager to revise the target,
arguing that the cuts need to continue to ensure markets have properly rebalanced. The producers,
who will meet in the Saudi city of Jeddah next week, have examined alternative metrics that filter
out excessively-high stockpiles seen in recent years.
While OPEC members agreed to reduce output by about 1.2 million barrels a day, their actual cut
last month was more than 60 percent bigger. The group’s 14 members pumped 31.83 million barrels
a day in March, the lowest in almost three years. The 24 members bound by the wider accord have
now cut output by almost 2.4 million barrels a day, more than their combined pledge of 1.8 million
barrels, the IEA said.
The agency kept its forecasts for global supply and demand in 2018 unchanged from last month’s
report.
OPEC Output Dropping Near 3-Year Low on Venezuela Woes
OPEC’s crude production fell to the lowest in almost three years as Venezuela’s woes continued to
mount.
The size of Venezuela’s production declines are matching those of Saudi Arabia, the International
Energy Agency said in its monthly report. However, the essential difference is Venezuela’s reduction
is unintentional with the Latin American nation’s oil industry suffering from “chronic
mismanagement,” the IEA said.
The Biggest Losers
More than a second Saudi Arabia has been added to the output deal, IEA says
Source: International Energy Agency

March cuts in relation to reference level of October 2016 for Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
September 2016 for Angola.
The collapse of Venezuela’s oil industry is partly a reason the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries has over-delivered on its pledge to curb supply. The group and its allies including Russia
are not only nearing their target of bringing global stockpiles back in line with five-year averages,
but are starting to suggest markets may tighten sharply later this year. OPEC’s compliance with its
pledged cuts in March rose to a record 163 percent in February, the IEA said.
“To all intents and purposes, more than a second Saudi Arabia has been added to the output
agreement,” the IEA said.
Venezuela’s oil production last month was 580,000 barrels a day below its reference level of 2.07
million barrels a day. That’s just shy of Saudi Arabia’s 620,000 barrel-a-day cut in March. Venezuela
had originally agreed to slash 95,000 barrels a day when it signed the deal.
The pain is set to continue.
The Latin American nation’s output capacity is likely to drop to 1.38 million barrels a day by the end
of the year, the lowest level since the late 1940s, Paris-based IEA said. Production fell to 1.49 million
barrels a day in March from 1.55 million barrels in February, helping boost its compliance rate to
607 percent.
“Difficulties in sourcing diluents, payment issues and ongoing operational challenges are likely to
lead to further production declines,” the agency said.
Here are some of the other highlights from the report:
 Production in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest producer and its de-facto leader, fell a further
40,000 barrels a day in March to 9.92 million barrels a day.
 Algeria’s output fell to just below 1 million barrels a day, the lowest since 2002,
after maintenance at Hassi Berkine South and Bir Rebaa Northfields.
 Angolan production fell further to 1.52 million barrels a day, the lowest since October 2016,
mostly because of natural declines at mature fields.
 Iraq, OPEC’s second biggest producer, pumped 4.44 million barrels a day. Its compliance
rate was 58 percent in March, the worst among the participants in the supply-cut deal.

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
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ASME member since 1995
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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations
base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in
Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas
compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences
in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating
stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas
transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local
authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE
and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

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