New Electrode Materials Drive Lithium-Ion Battery Growth

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New Electrode Materials for
Lithium-Ion Batteries–2012
Nano-503

Published January 2012

© NanoMarkets, LC

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 Summary of Opportunities from New Materials for Lithium-Ion Batteries Page | i
E.1.1 Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO)
E.1.2 Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO)
E.1.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
E.1.4 Nickel Cobalt Alumina (NCA) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC)
E.1.5 Graphite and Its Replacements

E.2 Materials Suppliers to Watch in this Space
E.3 Roadmap for Lithium-Ion Battery Materials and Eight-Year Market Forecast
E.3.1 Features Required for Competitive Benefit

E.4 Concluding Remarks on Market Strategies
Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to Report
1.1.1 The Importance of Electrodes for Lithium Battery Performance Improvement

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of this Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Market Requirements and Opportunities for Novel Lithium-Ion Battery
Electrode Materials
2.1 Consumer Electronics, Computing and Communications Applications Trends for Lithium-
Ion Batteries
2.1.1 Impact of Market Trends on Electrode Material Requirements

2.2 Power Tools

2.3 Electric Vehicles and Other Automotive Applications

2.4 Smart Grids

2.5 Military and Aerospace Applications


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2.6 Other Lithium-Ion Battery Applications and their Impact on Electrode Material
Requirements
2.6.1 Medical Markets
2.6.2 Data Communications Markets
2.6.3 Other Applications
Page | ii
2.7 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Three: New Materials for the Lithium-Ion Battery Industry
3.1 Why the Lithium-Ion Battery Industry Needs Better Materials
3.1.1 EV and Smart Grid Market Requirements: Nascent Markets
3.1.2 Impact on the Battery and Battery Materials Market

3.2 Anode Materials
3.2.1 The Future of Graphite
3.2.2 Nanostructured Carbon and its Variants
3.2.3 Nanostructured Silicon and Its Variants
3.2.4 Titanates
3.2.5 Vanadium Oxides
3.2.6 Opportunity Analysis
3.2.7 Survey and Assessment of Firms Supplying Novel Anode Materials

3.3 Cathode Materials
3.3.1 Lithium Manganese Spinel
3.3.2 Advanced Lithium Iron Phosphates
3.3.3 Mixed Metal Oxides
3.3.4 Nickel Cobalt Alumina
3.3.5 Opportunity Analysis
3.3.6 Survey and Assessment of Firms Supplying Novel Cathode Materials

3.4 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts
4.1 Forecasting Methodology
4.1.1 Impact of Industry/Application Maturity
4.1.2 Important Industry Sectors
4.1.3 Alternative Scenarios

4.2 Forecast by Application
4.2.1 Consumer Electronics
4.2.2 Power Tools
4.2.3 Electric Vehicles
4.2.4 Smart Grids and Stationary Applications
4.2.5 Military and Aerospace Applications


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4.3 Forecast by Material
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
About the Author
Page | iii

List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Firms to Watch in the Lithium Battery Industry .........................................................................................5
Exhibit E-2: Total Electrode Materials for the Lithium-ion Industry .............................................................................7
Exhibit E-3: Total Value of Electrode Materials for Lithium-ion Industry by Application ($ Millions) ..........................8
Exhibit E-4: Total Electrode Material for Lithium-ion Industry by Application (Metric Tonnes) ...................................8
Exhibit 3-1: Firms Producing Anode Materials ............................................................................................................44
Exhibit 3-2: Survey of Firms Supplying Novel Cathode Materials ................................................................................52
Exhibit 4-1: Electrode Materials for the Consumer Electronics Segment ...................................................................60
Exhibit 4-2: Electrode Materials for the Power Tools Segment ...................................................................................64
Exhibit 4-3: Electrode Materials for the Electric Vehicles Segment ............................................................................67
Exhibit 4-4: Electrode Materials for the Smart Grids and Stationary Applications Segment ......................................70
Exhibit 4-5: Electrode Materials for the Military and Aerospace Segment ................................................................73
Exhibit 4-6: Electrode Materials for the Lithium-ion Industry .....................................................................................76


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Executive Summary
E.1 Summary of Opportunities from New Materials for Lithium-Ion Batteries
There are certain characteristics that the lithium-ion battery brings to the table that have made
Page | 1
it widely used. These batteries have high energy densities at a high operating voltage, providing
significantly longer battery life in smaller form factors than competitive battery chemistries.
They also have low self-discharge rate and low memory effects on recharging after a partial
discharge.

Currently the lithium-ion battery is a well established market standard for use in consumer
devices and various industrial applications, and is a promising candidate for use in electric
vehicles (EVs) and potentially Smart Grids. However, the fact that the lithium-ion battery hasn't
had a strong performance boost in recent years leaves the door open for other battery
chemistries to make strong cases for themselves.

There are inherent trade-offs when attempting to improve the performance of the lithium-ion
battery, and this makes it nearly impossible to find a material improvement that will provide an
improvement on all fronts. Each technology addresses the needs of particular market
segments, and with targeted efforts, material developers will see a real revenue opportunity
from potentially high volume and/or high growth market segments.

NanoMarkets believes that the lithium-ion battery industry is poised to see significant
additional growth over the next decade. One driver for this is that lithium-ion batteries appear
to be slated to serve the needs of a number of rapidly growing end-user segments. But the
lithium-ion battery also has some issues that need to be improved upon:

 Lithium ion is conventionally a low-output power chemistry. However, a materials
innovation has already addressed this fact and in fact allowed it to enter higher power
market segments.

 Lithium ion is also a comparatively "unsafe" chemistry, susceptible to thermal runaway
leading to explosions. Although this aspect has been addressed through materials
improvements in the past as well as safety circuitry, there is still much room for
improvement, especially if it is to expand into markets with more stringent
requirements.

 Lithium ion is also an expensive chemistry (largely driven by the price of the electrode
raw materials used).


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As the lithium-ion battery segment expands, NanoMarkets believes that significant
improvements in performance will be produced through novel electrode materials, and
developers and manufacturers of such materials will therefore see significant new business
revenues going forward.
Page | 2
E.1.1 Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO)
Lithium cobalt oxide is currently the cathode material of choice for most portable electronics
(and indeed for any application that requires a high energy density). This material generates by
far the largest revenues of any of the materials considered in this report and despite the fact
that this material is gradually being replaced by other materials, LCO will still generate $2.0
billion in revenues in 2012 growing to twice that amount by the end of the forecasting period.

The fact that LCO is declining slowly as a share of materials consumed by the lithium-ion battery
sector is a testament to the fact that it is quite hard to replace and that the safety of this
material has improved somewhat. And despite the decline, NanoMarkets thinks that there are
still some opportunities to be exploited in this materials sector.

In particular the development of processes that use this material and are focused on increasing
the energy density of the cell, would seem to have some new business potential attached to
them. The combination of a familiar material and improved performance would, we believe, be
very attractive in this market, unless and until next generation materials are fully
commercialized for LCO.

E.1.2 Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO)
At the present time the only other cathode material that is selling at levels that are likely to
produce respectable short-term revenues for materials firms is lithium-manganese oxide
(LMO). However, with almost $700 million in revenues slated for the final year of the forecast
period, NanoMarkets believes that this material could produce some important opportunities
going forward.

The key point here is that manganese-based cathode materials have enabled the lithium-ion
battery to expand its addressable markets to higher performance applications. Moving to
manganese-based cathodes has already allowed the lithium-ion battery to see quite an increase
in revenue in the power tools segment to the point where it now can claim a sizeable market
share. For example, being able to power a cordless buzz saw was out of the capability of the
lithium-ion battery when it first entered the market because of the limitations inherent to its
cathode material.


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These higher performing segments (EVs and Smart Grids, for example) are exactly where
NanoMarkets expects to see considerable growth for lithium-ion batteries going forward, so
this fact will help define the future opportunities for manganese cathodes. Our projections
suggest that most of the LMO opportunities going forward will be found in the EV segment, so
they are highly dependent on the future of this applications sector. Page | 3

E.1.3 Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
At the present time, LFP is little more than a research material. However, we believe that by
2015 this material will experience enough demand to make it of considerable interest to firms
selling electrode materials into the battery segment. In the last few years of the forecast period
NanoMarkets sees this material growing fast enough to make it the second largest sector in the
cathode materials market.

LFP is just beginning to pay off after several years of R&D work and is a major rival to LMO
going forward, we believe. While the value proposition of LFP is similar to LMO it is generally
considered to be a safer material; which is obviously a significant selling feature and we think
that this newer material will catch on especially in the EV and power tools market, especially
the former.

E.1.4 Nickel Cobalt Alumina (NCA) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC)
Composites such as nickel-cobalt-alumina and nickel-manganese-cobalt are essentially less
expensive replacements for lithium cobalt oxide, and an attempt to improve the energy density
of the cell. However, there are limits on how much these materials can be brought down in
cost because they contain cobalt and their safety has been questioned for high-power
applications like electric vehicles.

The biggest opportunity in this sector will emerge for NMC material, which will mostly find a
market in the consumer and (to a much greater extent) in the EV segment. NCA is not going to
see much use until the end of the forecasting period and the main application sector will be in
consumer electronics markets.

E.1.5 Graphite and Its Replacements
Graphite is by far the most important anode material used in lithium-ion batteries in terms of
revenues and these revenues are expected to almost triple by the end of the forecast period;
primarily reflecting the underlying growth in the market for conventional lithium-ion batteries.

Nonetheless, NanoMarkets believes that there is still an opportunity to replace graphite as the
industry standard material, but this opportunity is not likely to produce potential revenue levels
that could be considered high enough to build a sizeable business on until quite late in the


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forecasting period. In our forecasts, we specifically predict the potential revenues for lithium
titanate and silicon.

What researchers are primarily looking for in their search for a replacement to graphite are
materials that have an enhanced ability to hold lithium ions. Silicon, nanostructured carbon and
Page | 4
oxides of titanium and vanadium have been identified as viable alternatives to graphite for this
enhanced ability. Silicon has the highest theoretical capacity for lithium ions, but until recently
has had problems with durability. The silicon anode is a materials technology that is being
pioneered by smaller, early stage companies hoping to make a quick and strong impact in the
industry.

Silicon is expected to make forays into the consumer electronics market segment in the early
portion of the forecast period, mostly backed by large companies like Panasonic. This is a
segment where they know that the improvement to energy density that silicon provides can be
leveraged. It will also allow them to ramp up production and evaluate its viability for other
market segments. Smaller companies developing novel silicon solutions can be expected to
license out their silicon technology in the early phase of this forecast period. This will allow
them to see some early revenue before they can ramp up production to target high-growth
segments like the electric vehicle market.

The other materials that challenge graphite in this context are mainly being developed by larger
companies. Meanwhile, while some new business revenues will be generated by firms who
come up with novel ways to approach graphite processing and structure; this represents the
opportunities in the next couple of years.
One reason why the alternatives to graphite are not likely to emerge until later in the forecast
period is that these new materials appear to be quite challenging in terms of commercial
development and, in any case, many of the companies that are developing novel anode
materials for lithium-ion batteries are still in their infancy.
And, before new anode replacements can become a paying business proposition, the new
anode technology will have to be shown to provide significant performance improvements
while not increasing the manufacturing costs of the anode. Silicon will likely be phased in to
the market in some sense, with silicon carbon composites, and silicon gradually becoming the
dominant material in the composite.
E.2 Materials Suppliers to Watch in this Space
Exhibit E-1 summarizes the firms that we believe should be watched in the lithium battery
space. These firms are certainly not the only firms that are active in this space, but represent
firms that we think have an especially strong value proposition.


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Exhibit E-1 Firms to Watch in the Lithium Battery Industry
Company Technology/ Strengths of the technology Market segments targeted
(Cell/Materials) Materials
Anode Materials
Panasonic Silicon- 30% improvement in energy Consumer electronics initially – notebook
(Cell) carbon density. Retains 80% capacity batteries. Can expand into EV segment in Page | 5
composite after 500 cycles. the future, while leveraging present
18650 cell revenue stream at present.
3M Amorphous At least 20% improvement in Consumer electronics, EV. In the process of
(Materials) Silicon energy density, development and manufacturing scale-up –
pilot scale operation at present.
Amprius Silicon Energy density improvements EV and consumer electronics. Recently
(Materials) nanowires ranging from 1.4x-10x. received $25mill in Series B funding – goals
are to deploy first commercial product and
validate manufacturing process. Relatively
longer timeline to market compared to
other companies with similar product
offerings.
Nexeon Silicon nano- Energy density improvements: EV, consumer electronics, grid storage,
(Materials) structures First generation – 1000mAh/g medical. Materials manufacturers –
Second generation-3600mAh/g building IP position and licensing
Low cost, "drop-in" solution technology to cell manufacturers. Investing
in expanding manufacturing capabilities.
Altairnano Lithium Safe, fast charging, 80% capacity EV and stationary applications – specifically
(Materials) Titanate retention after 1,000,000 partial remote UPS applications in challenging
Nano- depth-of-discharge cycles, 16000 environments, Phoenix motorcars
structure cycles with full depth-of- providing entry into the EV segment.
discharge, high output power Established manufacturing facilities with
and temperature stability the potential to scale up.
Cathode Materials
Hitachi Manganese Long cycle life, high operating Grid storage, power tools. Relatively new
(Cells) based voltage technology so material is not much further
composite than pilot line, but Hitachi has the
resources to rapidly scale up production.
A123 Nano- Nanostructure improves Transportation, storage and power tools -
(Cells) phosphate conductivity, high power, longer 90 MW sold for stationary storage, has
(lithium iron cycle life, much improved safety, already entered the power tools segment,
phosphate) higher usable energy which entered and tested in EV applications in
addresses questions on energy transit buses, proving applicability in
density. industry. Strong IP position, dispute with
Hydro-Quebec settled.
Envia Systems NMC High energy density (twice that Electric vehicles (strategic ties with General
(Materials) (licensed of lithium cobalt oxide), high Motors), consumer electronics, military.
from usable capacity and long cycle
Argonne life, stable at high operating
National voltages
Labs)
Saft NCA High energy density, long Military and stationary storage.
(Cell) service life
© NanoMarkets 2012


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One takeaway from this Exhibit is that some very large firms are involved in this business. The
ones mentioned here are Panasonic, 3M, Hitachi and Saft. We think this is a measure of the
importance that is being attached to the lithium battery materials segment both in terms of
being a revenue generator and an enabler for the batteries themselves.
Page | 6
The most noticeable aspect of the smaller firms active in this space is that they seem to be
highly focused on nanomaterials. This approach, NanoMarkets believes, provides these firms
with the opportunity to develop relatively strong IP and provide solutions that are highly
distinguishable in the marketplace. Clearly, most of these smaller firms have a few years of
slogging away at R&D before they can be expected to produce large revenues.

E.3 Roadmap for Lithium-Ion Battery Materials and Eight-Year Market Forecast
Exhibit E-2 summarizes the market for lithium-ion battery materials over an eight-year period.
As the Exhibit shows this is already a substantial market, at $2.8 billion, and is expected to grow
to a much larger market, $8.2 billion, by the end of the forecasting period.

Much of that market growth is explained simply by the growth in the direct or indirect
addressable markets. That is to say that both existing markets for lithium-ion batteries
(consumer electronics) are likely to expand and new markets are likely to emerge (EVs).
However, this represents an "opportunity" that is beyond the ability of materials suppliers to
control. We also note that the automotive market for these batteries is highly uncertain and
that "pure" EV products are a very long way from being successful in the market.

The new materials opportunities have largely been explained above and will not be repeated
here. However, our forecasts in the Exhibit suggest that the opportunities presented by new
materials are quite dramatic. Thus at the present time, our forecasts suggest that about 30
percent by value of the materials market discussed in this report are currently represented by
new (i.e., not LCO or graphite) materials. By the end of the forecast period, we see that
number grow to around 50 percent. In money terms what we are talking about here is a new
materials opportunity worth just $257 million this year, but which will reach $2.8 billion in
2019. This is quite a dramatic change!

The roadmap for the lithium-ion battery materials discussed here is very much dependent on
the direction the lithium-ion industry takes in general. While the consumer electronics and
industrial power tools segments are established, steadily growing markets, the electric vehicles
and Smart Grids (and stationary applications) market segments have led to more conjecture,
with some forecasts predicting rapid growth in these segments that will spur materials
innovation and the demand for novel materials; and others being more skeptical.


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E.3.1 Features Required for Competitive Benefit
These revenues will be competed for along a number of dimensions. Safety and costs seem
especially important.

Exhibit E-2 Total Electrode Materials for the Lithium-ion Industry Page | 7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TOTAL CELLS SOLD
Revenue ($ Millions)
Cathode
LCO
LMO
LFP
NMC
NCA
TOTAL

Anode
Graphite
LTO
Silicon
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL

Weight (Tonnes)
Cathode
LCO
LMO
LFP
NMC
NCA
TOTAL
Anode
Graphite
LTO
Silicon
TOTAL
GRAND TOTAL
© NanoMarkets 2012


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Exhibit E-3 Total Value of Electrode Materials for Lithium-ion Industry by Application ($ Millions)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Consumer
Electronics
Power Tools
Electric Vehicles Page | 8
Smart Grids &
Stationary
Military &
Aerospace
Total Electrode
Material Market
© NanoMarkets 2012

Total Electrode Material Market for Lithium-ion
Industry
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000 Military & Aerospace
$ Millions

5,000
Smart Grids & Stationary
4,000
3,000 Electric Vehicles
2,000 Power Tools
1,000
Consumer Electronics
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

© NanoMarkets, LC

Exhibit E-4 Total Electrode Material for Lithium-ion Industry by Application (Metric Tonnes)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Consumer
Electronics
Power Tools
Electric Vehicles
Smart Grids &
Stationary
Military &
Aerospace
Total Electrode
Material Market
© NanoMarkets 2012


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Total Electrode Material for Lithium-ion Industry
350,000
300,000
250,000
Metric Tonnes

Page | 9
200,000 Military & Aerospace

150,000 Smart Grids & Stationary

100,000 Electric Vehicles

50,000 Power Tools

0 Consumer Electronics

© NanoMarkets, LC

Safety: Safety is a very big issue that needs to be addressed with high power requirements with
large cell packs and larger format batteries. These are employed in hybrid electric vehicles and
electric vehicles. This is a high-growth market where safety will be one of the key enablers that
allows the lithium-ion chemistry to be a significant part of it.

Costs: Decreasing the materials costs associated with lithium-ion battery production will go a
long way towards making the chemistry ubiquitous in emerging markets like the electric vehicle
and smart grids market. In fact, reducing battery costs associated with electric vehicles is a
market force that will push the adoption of electric vehicles in the market.

E.4 Concluding Remarks on Market Strategies
The military market segment—as it often does—offers a chance for firms in the new materials
space to try out new ideas, without having to ramp up to large volumes and with sales at
premium prices.

However, for smaller companies that don't have access to military/aerospace markets, there
are other strategic options:

 One option for smaller companies pioneering novel technology that isn't at the stage of
volume production comes in the form of licensing agreements with larger
manufacturers. This will allow these smaller firms to get their product on the market
while leveraging their materials expertise.


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 Additionally, in market segments like the electric vehicle segment, partnerships with
manufacturers of the end product (in this case automobile manufacturers) will allow for
market exposure for new products, with development cost shared with the OEM/
automobile manufacturer.
Page | 10
Larger companies that are planning on launching silicon-based products can be expected to
leverage established production lines and revenue streams in order to get their product on the
market. This will allow for the market viability of the technology to be evaluated. They can take
advantage of the more established consumer electronics or power tools segments to ramp
production levels while seeing revenues, thereby preparing them to take advantage of the high
growth expected from emerging segments towards the latter half of the forecasting period.

Total Lithium-Ion Electrode Material Revenue
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
$ Millions

5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
© NanoMarkets, LC

To obtain a full copy of this report please contact NanoMarkets at sales@nanomarket.net or
via telephone at (804) 938-0030 or visit us at www.nanomarkets.net.


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Chapter One: Introduction

1.1 Background to Report
Lithium-ion batteries are a technology poised to see a large growth in revenue in the next five
Page | 11
years because of their potential in applications such as electric vehicles, consumer electronic
devices and Smart Grid applications. That there is a clamoring in the market for a drastic
improvement in lithium-ion battery technology is obvious to see:

 EVs are trying to compete with the internal combustion engine, an established
technology that is likely not going to be beaten in the mass market anytime soon.

 Smart and application laden consumer devices are rife and are only becoming more
application heavy which is a huge draw on battery life.

 Additionally, power companies are pushing to respond to residential and industrial
energy needs with smart energy grids to reduce the number of brown outs and
blackouts and the ability to integrate renewable energy sources into the grid.

Of all the battery chemistries contending for a place in these markets, the lithium ion is
arguably the best poised to enter and capture sizeable portions of these segments or at least
has a fighting chance to do so, but a performance increase is necessary to assure this battery
chemistry gains a strong foothold.

1.1.1 The Importance of Electrodes for Lithium Battery Performance
Improvement
A fact worth noting here is how mature the lithium-ion market is. It is not a market where
disruptive, performance enhancing technology is common. But with a sudden projected
increase in unit volume and performance demand, there is now potentially a very large market
that is not having its needs ideally met.

The realizable market opportunity exists because of the plateau that the current industry-
standard electrodes have reached. Technological innovation currently provides a minimal
increase in performance year to year in current lithium-ion batteries:

 It is more processing improvements and improvements in cell design that have been
providing incremental improvements in battery performance in the recent past.

 However, the performance demands of the market are growing at a pace too quick for
the tweaks that can be made to the current battery to match. This mismatch between


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the expectations and needs of the market and the inability of the current industrial state
of the art has provided a technological gap that needs to be filled. Since markets for the
lithium-ion battery is so heavily performance driven, a large opportunity here exists for
developers of anode and cathode materials.
Page | 12
To successfully enter and maintain its hold in the newer market segments listed above before
strong inroads are made by other battery chemistries, the lithium-ion battery, NanoMarkets
believes, needs materials advancements to propel it out of the performance plateau that the
current industry standard has found itself in. As a result, the time is ripe for a profound
improvement in the performance of the lithium-ion battery, and novel electrode materials are
being investigated to provide this:

 The current graphite anode, and the lithium-cobalt cathode used in the most common
lithium-ion chemistry are at the point of being phased out because they are nearing the
limit of technological innovations that significantly improve their performance. The fact
that the lithium-ion battery hasn't had a strong performance boost in recent years
leaves the door open for other battery chemistries to make strong cases for themselves.

 Nonetheless, there is no outstanding novel electrode material technology that has made
it to the production line and satisfies the expected increasing demands in battery
performance.

 Additionally, certain technologies have proved to be better at addressing specific value
propositions. There are inherent tradeoffs when attempting to improve the
performance of the lithium-ion battery, and this makes it nearly impossible to find a
material improvement that will provide an improvement on all fronts. Each technology
addresses the needs of particular market segments, and with targeted efforts, material
developers will see a real revenue opportunity from potentially high volume and/or high
growth market segments.

The development of advanced materials that will replace the current state-of-the-art anodes
and cathodes is based on the improvement in energy density and/or (depending on the market
segment) power density provided to the battery. Having mentioned the "make or break" nature
of the energy and power density properties, it is important to note that each market segment
will identify certain key secondary properties that materials developers need to have a very
strong handle on. Weight, form factor, life cycle and environmental impact are a few such
examples. This is where product differentiation among electrode technologies will decide which
materials will excel in a given market segment. While the differences may be subtle between


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market segments, it is the deciding factor between materials producers not aligning the value
proposition of their product with the demand of their target market segment.

Cathode improvements: Cathode materials tend to provide more diversity in terms of the cell
characteristics they have an impact on. While anode materials are being investigated mostly to
Page | 13
improve the energy density of the cell, various cathode materials can either improve the energy
or the power density, provide faster charging times, more safety and/or lower costs.

The cathode reaction in the lithium-ion cell is also a safety concern, and while the potential to
improve the energy density must be considered, the stability of the materials in the cell
environment is a crucial concern.

A lithium-manganese based cathode is right now the furthest penetrating competitive
technology to the conventional lithium-cobalt cathode. Other materials that bear looking at
are:

 Lithium iron phosphates and their derivatives.

 Composites of nickel, manganese and cobalt are being developed specifically for the
automotive market segment. With development being pushed in tandem by established
companies in both the battery and automotive spaces, we can expect this technology to
be a frontrunner to capture the opportunity in that segment.

Anode improvements: Next generation anode technologies are typically identified by their
potential to hold lithium ions. In general, replacement anode materials have been less common
than those for cathode materials:

 At this stage silicon, nanostructured carbon, and oxides of titanium and vanadium have
been identified as viable alternatives to graphite for this enhanced ability.

 The metal oxide materials are seeing development in the labs of the larger, more
established materials suppliers, such as NEI and 3M. It can be expected that these
companies with experience in supplying to the battery industry are likely to tailor their
products to simply drop in to the present battery manufacturing production line.
Emerging companies may find it harder to do this.

 Silicon has the highest theoretical capacity for lithium ions, but until recently has had
problems with durability. However, structural modifications to the silicon electrode
have let it become a potentially disruptive technology in this market. The silicon anode
is a materials technology that is being pioneered by smaller, early stage companies


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hoping to make a strong impact in the industry. While it has a longer development
timeline, its potential to make an impact is sizeable, making it a materials technology
worth investigating.

Nanomaterials: The manipulation of the physical structure of the active electrode material also
Page | 14
creates another opportunity in this space. In an effort to increase the surface area for the
storage of charge and to address issues with durability (due to the significant expansion and
contraction of some materials when they take up or release lithium ions), developers are using
processing techniques to create nanostructured versions of electrode materials.

Nanoparticles or nanotubes in the form of a powder are examples. The opportunity that could
be realizable here is for producers of binding materials that provide a conducting matrix in
which the nanostructures can be embedded. Binding materials are already being used in
batteries to hold together powder based electrodes and improve conductivity, and will
continue to see applicability as electrode materials are pushed towards powdered forms to
increase surface area for lithium-ion absorption.

Finally, a big question materials developers will need to answer as they see a realizable
opportunity before them in a very mature market is how they are going to integrate their
product into the production line of battery manufacturers.

The more established companies like Sony, Sanyo and Samsung will already have this in mind
when thinking of the materials they are developing but new entrants to this market will have
the added burden of creating manufacturing processes compatible with current production
processes unless they want to bear the manufacturing cost of the entire battery. A company's
approach to this challenge will be a significant product differentiator and will determine of
which market it can realistically meet the unit volume demands.

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report
The objective of this report is to identify and quantify the business revenue opportunities for
novel electrode materials in the various market segments that the lithium-ion battery caters to.
This is done through an analysis of the needs of these market segments and how each novel
material technology is best suited to satisfy those needs.

This report also provides granular eight-year market forecasts for electrode materials in the
lithium-ion battery industry and is international in scope. We have not been geographically
selective in the firms covered or interviewed for the purposes of compiling this report.


www.nanomarkets.net

1.3 Methodology of this Report
The information for this report is derived from a variety of sources, primarily from
NanoMarkets' interview program of technologists, business development managers and
academics associated with this field. An extensive search of the technical literature and relevant
company Web sites was also conducted. Page | 15

The forecasting method used in this report is explained in detail in Chapter Four but the
fundamental approach is to identify the key market segments for the lithium-ion battery and
the needs of each customer base that electrode material can address. The driving forces within
each segment are looked at to judge the level of market penetration that each novel materials
technology can achieve within its target market segment.

1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two will analyze the market requirement for novel lithium-ion battery electrode
materials as seen by the main market segments. Chapter Three will then go on to analyze the
new material technologies that are undergoing development in the lithium-ion space and the
opportunity each of these novel materials will see.

Finally, Chapter Four will go over our eight-year forecasts for these novel materials, both from
the point of view of the material system being developed as well as the applications that
present themselves.


New Electrode Materials Drive Lithium-Ion Battery Growth

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New Electrode Materials Drive Lithium-Ion Battery Growth