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The Arab Spring and The Power of Attention
or, How Not to Miss the Next Revolution


Naval Academy Foreign Affairs Conference 2011
April 12, 2011
Ethan Zuckerman (@ethanz)
Roadmap:

- Understanding the “Arab Spring” through the lens of media

- Why it’s hard to understand the rest of the world

- How we might rewire a more globally aware media

- What you can do individually to experience a wider world
Clay Shirky              Malcolm Gladwell              Marc Lynch
 Internet enables group     Offline activism leverages   Internet matters more
  formation, empowers           strong ties, online     for long-term change
activists as never before      activism, weak ties         than short-term
photo by Reuters
annotated by BBC
interactive timeline
by The Guardian
full video not included
         for space constraints -
please view at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0i9acHS_zQ
Tunisian protesters with a Mohamed Bouazizi banner (AFP)
Yasmine Ryan
  1/26/2011
cc photo by ya/sin
Should I protest?

- How likely, and how severe, are negative consequences?
   Will I get arrested? Will my family? Will I get shot?

       - Will anyone join with me in the protest?
      And am I safer if they do, or if they don’t?

      - How likely is my protest to have an impact?
          Is there any hope for real change?
cc photo by Panoramas
Implications of the broadcast mirror for Tunisia:

     - How likely, and how severe, are negative consequences?
 If the world is watching, I can be shot, but I won’t disappear

            - Will anyone join with me in the protest?
            Thousands have already, and more will

           - How likely is my protest to have an impact?
This scale of protest is unprecedented - there’s already change
“Thank you, Facebook, Al Jazeera” - Tahrir Square, (Mona Sosh)
photo by Nevine Zaki
YouTube video posted by ibnomar2005


Libya: media blackout = weak signal
Youtube Video, posted by AfricaWeWish


Gabon: low attention = weak amplification
   Bahrain - is the amplifier working?
Dictator’s dilemma:

If I allow protests to take place, the people might topple me.
      If I crush them, the people will hate me even more.
Dictator’s dilemma:

If I allow protests to take place, the people might topple me.
      If I crush them, the people will hate me even more.

                          Digital dilemma:
   If I don’t block Facebook, the people might topple me.
        If I block it, the people will hate me even more.
John Gilmore
 “The net interprets censorship
as damage and routes around it.”
        December 1993
Open Net Initiative, 2010
   Political filtering
Clay Shirky              Malcolm Gladwell              Marc Lynch
 Internet enables group     Offline activism leverages   Internet matters more
  formation, empowers           strong ties, online     for long-term change
activists as never before      activism, weak ties         than short-term
Visualization of US news attention
              Slate.com, April 2010
color represents audience ideology
 non-US sites highlighted in yellow
curation   search   social
homophily


       photo by Cobalt123
how to not miss the next revolution
     (in three difficult steps)
translate
  bridge
  curate
yeeyan.org
Abramovich? Hello! Listen,
      do you have a rynda on
    your yacht? See, the thing
     is... you have to return it.




image from ellustrator.livejournal.com
Vadim Isakov
       Born in Uzbekistan
    Studied journalism in US
Independent media in Central Asia
   Now teaching in Ithaca, NY
rescuetime.com
MMMeeja.com
Nutritional Information:
New York Times

Ingredients: International coverage 42%
(includes 8% Iraq, 5% Afghanistan, minimum
weekly 5% China, and no less than 2%
Africa), Washington coverage 28% (includes
7% Obama, 6% Congress, and trace amounts
of Limbaugh), New York State/Albany
coverage 14%, New York City coverage 10%,
and less than 6% domestic US coverage.

Warning: contains less than 40% of sports
coverage of the leading competitor, the New
York Post, and 50% of business coverage of
the Wall Street Journal. May contain less than
your recommended daily allowance of Latin
America News.
Alfred Sirleaf, editor of
   “The Daily Talk”, a
blackboard newspaper in
    Monrovia, Liberia
 photo by Erik Hersman




   watch what you read
watch who your friends read
  look for bridge figures
      be a xenophile
      help us rewire

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Nafac2001 ethanz

  • 1. The Arab Spring and The Power of Attention or, How Not to Miss the Next Revolution Naval Academy Foreign Affairs Conference 2011 April 12, 2011 Ethan Zuckerman (@ethanz)
  • 2. Roadmap: - Understanding the “Arab Spring” through the lens of media - Why it’s hard to understand the rest of the world - How we might rewire a more globally aware media - What you can do individually to experience a wider world
  • 3. Clay Shirky Malcolm Gladwell Marc Lynch Internet enables group Offline activism leverages Internet matters more formation, empowers strong ties, online for long-term change activists as never before activism, weak ties than short-term
  • 6. full video not included for space constraints - please view at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0i9acHS_zQ
  • 7. Tunisian protesters with a Mohamed Bouazizi banner (AFP)
  • 8. Yasmine Ryan 1/26/2011
  • 9. cc photo by ya/sin
  • 10. Should I protest? - How likely, and how severe, are negative consequences? Will I get arrested? Will my family? Will I get shot? - Will anyone join with me in the protest? And am I safer if they do, or if they don’t? - How likely is my protest to have an impact? Is there any hope for real change?
  • 11. cc photo by Panoramas
  • 12. Implications of the broadcast mirror for Tunisia: - How likely, and how severe, are negative consequences? If the world is watching, I can be shot, but I won’t disappear - Will anyone join with me in the protest? Thousands have already, and more will - How likely is my protest to have an impact? This scale of protest is unprecedented - there’s already change
  • 13. “Thank you, Facebook, Al Jazeera” - Tahrir Square, (Mona Sosh)
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 17. YouTube video posted by ibnomar2005 Libya: media blackout = weak signal
  • 18. Youtube Video, posted by AfricaWeWish Gabon: low attention = weak amplification Bahrain - is the amplifier working?
  • 19. Dictator’s dilemma: If I allow protests to take place, the people might topple me. If I crush them, the people will hate me even more.
  • 20. Dictator’s dilemma: If I allow protests to take place, the people might topple me. If I crush them, the people will hate me even more. Digital dilemma: If I don’t block Facebook, the people might topple me. If I block it, the people will hate me even more.
  • 21. John Gilmore “The net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it.” December 1993
  • 22. Open Net Initiative, 2010 Political filtering
  • 23.
  • 24. Clay Shirky Malcolm Gladwell Marc Lynch Internet enables group Offline activism leverages Internet matters more formation, empowers strong ties, online for long-term change activists as never before activism, weak ties than short-term
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Visualization of US news attention Slate.com, April 2010 color represents audience ideology non-US sites highlighted in yellow
  • 31. curation search social
  • 32. homophily photo by Cobalt123
  • 33. how to not miss the next revolution (in three difficult steps)
  • 36. Abramovich? Hello! Listen, do you have a rynda on your yacht? See, the thing is... you have to return it. image from ellustrator.livejournal.com
  • 37. Vadim Isakov Born in Uzbekistan Studied journalism in US Independent media in Central Asia Now teaching in Ithaca, NY
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 43. Nutritional Information: New York Times Ingredients: International coverage 42% (includes 8% Iraq, 5% Afghanistan, minimum weekly 5% China, and no less than 2% Africa), Washington coverage 28% (includes 7% Obama, 6% Congress, and trace amounts of Limbaugh), New York State/Albany coverage 14%, New York City coverage 10%, and less than 6% domestic US coverage. Warning: contains less than 40% of sports coverage of the leading competitor, the New York Post, and 50% of business coverage of the Wall Street Journal. May contain less than your recommended daily allowance of Latin America News.
  • 44. Alfred Sirleaf, editor of “The Daily Talk”, a blackboard newspaper in Monrovia, Liberia photo by Erik Hersman watch what you read watch who your friends read look for bridge figures be a xenophile help us rewire