1. Murphy's Law states that "The best laid plans of mice and men / Often go awry." This refers to the idea that things can go wrong or not as planned despite one's best efforts or intentions. 2. The passage discusses different examples to illustrate Murphy's Law, including buttered toast usually landing buttered side down due to gravity, the unpredictability of which supermarket checkout line will be fastest, and the "gambler's fallacy" that past wins or losses can predict future probabilities in gambling. 3. While chance and probability can be calculated mathematically, real-world outcomes are often affected by extrinsic, unpredictable factors, which is the essence of Murphy's Law.

1. Murphy’s Law
Meaning of the statement “The best
laid plans of mice and men / Often go
1 awry.”
Murphy’s Law maxim
2
Buttered Side Toast
a Chances for buttered side lands up %
b Chances for buttered side lands down %
c Toasts have random behavior T F
d Before hitting the floor, the toast makes a T F
complete revolution
e The force of gravity is responsible for toast T F
3 landing buttered side down
f The laws of physics are not linked to the T F
toast falling down a table
g Extrinsic factors affect the landing of the T F
falling toast
h People understand the laws of physics but T F
still believe in bad luck
Supermarket Lines
a How do we compute which line is moving
faster?
b If there are five lines, what are our chances
4 to choose the fastest line?
c If there are three lines, what are our chances
to choose the fastest line?
d Simple probability is against you. T F
e The more lines the better chance to get into T F
the fastest line.
f Luck and simple probability are linked T F

2. Murphy’s Law of Gambling
a What is a “life history?”
b Two examples of life history are:
c What’s the “gambler’s fallacy?”
d Probability theory applies nicely to gambling. T F
5 e Weather patterns have a life history. T F
f Flowers’ blooming follow the theory of T F
probability.
g Dice have a life history. T F
h Gambling has no reliable patterns. T F
i The possibility of rolling 5 in a dice is about T F
16%.
j A single event can be computed T F
mathematically.
Summary: Real Explanations
a Buttered Toast
b Supermarket Lines
6
c Gambling with Dice

3. Murphy’s Law: Exercise Notes