Vortrag im Rahmen der 67th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association in Chicago, April 2-5, 2009 Panel 21-21 “Models of Campaign Cognition”

1. Attributions of Responsibility – Dynamics,
Determinants and Consequences: The Case
of the 2005 German Election
Chicago, April 4, 2009
Thorsten Faas
University of Mannheim
67th Annual National Conference of the Midwest Political Science
Association in Chicago, April 2-5, 2009
Panel 21-21 “Models of Campaign Cognition”

2. Attributions of Responsibility
1
• Important …
– … from an individual’s point of view
– … but also from the point of view of the political system as a
whole
• Studying such attributions – their determinants, but also their effects
– as an important task for political science
• However, this task has not been extensively met for a long time
• Only recently have attributions of responsibility become a matter of
interest, e.g. in the field of economic voting

3. Determinants of Attributions of Responsibility
2
• ÊDefensive attributions“
• ÊMorselizing“
• ÊContextualization“
• Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and
cultural predispositions
• Campaigns

4. Data
3
• Rolling Cross-Section Survey covering the final 41 days of
the 2005 German Federal Election campaign (n=3,583)
• Items:
– “What do you think, to what extent is the ruling
government responsible for the development of this
economic situation: to a large extent, to some extent or
not at all?”
– Êthis economic situation“ refers to
• Individual’s own economic situation
• Situation of the national economy

5. Data
4
• ÊDefensive attributions“ Perceived State of
own and national economic
Situation
• ÊMorselizing“
• ÊContextualization“ Interaction term
• Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and
cultural predispositions Interest in Politics,
Party Identification,
• Campaigns Left-Right-Placement
Time

6. Development of Level of Attributed Responsibility
5
1
Mean Level of Attribution
.5
0
13.8. 20.8. 27.8. 3.9. 10.9. 17.9.
date
Individual's economic situation Nation's economic situation

7. Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for …
6
… Individual Economic Situation … National Economic Situation
Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ.
Nat. Econ. Nat. Econ.
Interest Interest
Left-Right Left-Right
PI: SPD PI: SPD
PI: Union PI: Union
PI: other PI: other
day day
interaction interaction
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
logit coefficients logit coefficients

8. Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for …
7
… Individual Economic Situation
Ind. Econ.
Nat. Econ.
Interest
Left-Right
PI: SPD
PI: Union
PI: other
day
interaction
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
logit coefficients

9. Predicted Probabilities
8
1
.8
probability
.6
.4 .2
0
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Individual economic situation
National economic situation ...
... very poor ... good
... poor ... very good
... average

10. Consequences of Attributions of Responsibility
9
• Kinder/Kiewiet (1979): sociotropic vs. pocketbook voting
• Empirically, sociotropic voting prevails
• But: attributions of responsibility as a potential
“contingency dilemma”
• Do attributions of responsibilities moderate effects of
economic perceptions (pertaining to one’s own economic
situation) on feeling thermometers for Germany’s major
parties?

11. Consequences of Attributed Responsibility for …
10
... feelings towards Social Democrats ... feelings towards Green Party
Nat. Econ. Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ.
Resp. Nat. Econ. Resp. Nat. Econ.
Resp. Ind. Econ. Resp. Ind. Econ.
Ind. Econ. X Resp. Ind. Econ. X Resp.
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
unstand. regression coefficients unstand. regression coefficients

12. Conclusions
11
• Studying attributions of responsibility is worthwhile. ☺
• Contact:
Thorsten Faas
University of Mannheim
A5, 6
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Thorsten.Faas@uni-mannheim.de
www.thorsten-faas.de