The document summarizes a study on the effects of celebrity endorsements on voter turnout in Germany. An online survey experiment was conducted with over 1,300 participants and eight conditions, including exposure to endorsements from celebrities Oliver Kahn and Johanna Klum. The results showed one condition with Kahn increased stated turnout likelihood significantly compared to the control. Effects were not stable over time however. Further analysis of subgroups and additional experiments were proposed to better understand celebrity endorsement effects on voting behavior.

1. Irrelevant at Best
Celebrity Endorsements and Voter
Mobilization in the Run-Up to the
2009 European Election in Germany
Landau, October 8th, 2009
Thorsten Faas, Harald Schoen
Email: Thorsten.Faas@uni-mannheim.de
Symposium ÊCampaigning for Europe. Parties,
Campaigns, Mass Media and the European Parliamentary
Elections 2009”

2. Some recent examples …
1

3. Some recent examples …
2

4. Even more common: Turnout
3

5. Even more common: Turnout
4
Does it work?

6. ÊAnswers“ Given in the Literature
5
• Some work done in the US
– Mixed results
– Underlying Mechanisms far from resolved
– ÊBrute Force“-Designs
• Hardly any (if any) work done in Germany
Our Starting Point:
Cover Germany, but also extend existing
literature by improving research designs

7. Data

8. Online Survey Experiment
7
• Online survey experiment conducted (in cooperation with
YouGovPsychonomics, based on their online panel)
• Survey was fielded from June 3-6, n=1.351, including
eight experimental conditions
• Dependent Variable (Baseline Version):
– ÊThe European Election will take place on June 7th.
How likely is it that you will turnout to vote?“
– Possible answers ranging from 0 (Êwill definitely not
vote“) to 10 (Êwill definitely vote“)

9. Experimental Condition 1 (Control Group):
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ÊThe European Election will take
place on June 7th. How likely is
it that you will turnout to vote?“

10. Experimental Condition 2/3:
9
ÊThe European Election will take
place on June 7th. Celebrities –
like Oliver Kahn [Johanna Klum]–
have called on people to cast
their vote. How likely is it that
you will turnout to vote?“

11. Experimental Condition 4/5:
10
ÊThe European Election will take
place on June 7th. How likely is
it that you will turnout to vote?“
ÊBRUTE FORCE“-APPROACH

12. Unobtrusive Experimental Condition 6/7/8:
11

13. Results

14. Results: Likelihood of Voting by Exp. Condition
13
8,0 Sig. Difference p<0,05
7,5
7,0
6,5
6,0
al
al
en
um al
n
l
al
en
ro
de
rb
su
su
rb
dd
dd
nt
id
ve
ve
vi
vi
Co
hi
hi
lh
hn
um
hn
hn
um
ra
Ka
Ka
Kl
Kl
Ka
ut
Kl
Ne

15. Data II

16. Online Survey Experiment
15
• Panel Survey
• In a first wave, we have a baseline measurement of the
likelihood of turnout, in addition we have ratings for the
celebrities in terms of ...
– ... Fame (in the sense of being known)
– ... Popularity (in the sense of being liked)
• We also have a third wave after the election to test for the
stability of possible effects.
• The experimental conditions were part of the second wave

17. Results: Difference in the Likelihood of Voting
16
Condition 4 is the only one to yield a
0,5
significant difference from zero
0,3
0,0
Neutral hidden
Kahn hidden
Klum hidden
Klum verbal
Klum visual
Control
Kahn verbal
-0,3 Kahn visual
-0,5

18. 60,0
65,0
70,0
75,0
80,0
Co
nt
Ka ro
hn l
ve
Kl rb
um al
ve
rb
Ka al
hn
vi
su
Kl
um al
vi
Ka su
hn al
hi
dd
Kl en
um
Ne hi
dd
ut en
ra
lh
id
de
n
Stability of Effects (Reported Turnout from Wave 3)
17

19. Further Research
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• Subgroup Analysis
– … by age
– … by popularity of celebs
– ... by prior level of certainty
– … by response latencies
• Additional experiments in the run-up to the federal
election (with celebrities endorsing parties)
• Thanks a lot for your attention!