Modelling and Visualization for Nowcasting

1. Modeling and visualization software
for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere
T. Egorova*, N. Hochmuth***, E. Rozanov*,**, A.V. Shapiro*,**, A.I. Shapiro*,
and W. Schmutz*
*PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland
** IAC ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland
*** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland

2. Goals of the project
• Find out how well we understand the solar
irradiance influence on the middle
atmosphere;
• Learn how to manage near-real-time
operation and visualization;
• At the moment Space Weather Service is a
secondary goal but may become interesting

3. Nowcast of neutral and ion
composition in the mesosphere based
on solar irradiance measurements
6-Hourly Data from
observations by
LYRA, PREMOS
or
Reconstructions
Preparation of the entire
Spectral solar irradiance
Simulations of the neutral
and charged species
with free running CICM SOCOLi
Nowcasting results
available on web
every 6 hours
Output validation
to improve the model

4. Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010
CTM:
Model for Evaluation of
oZONe trends
Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001
Egorova et al. 2001, 2003
 t = 15 min for dynamics
 t = 2 h for radiation
 horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°)
 vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa
GCM:
Middle Atmosphere
version of the European
Center/Hamburg Model 4
Manzini and McFarlane, 1998
 t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry
 41 chemical species
 Electrons, 17 negative ions 31
positive ions
 Reactions: 118 gas-phase,
33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic
 GCM-CTM coupling by O3 , H2O, CH4,
N2O, CFCs
Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOLi

5. CCM SOCOLi output
Mixing ratio of the neutral species and
electrons, negative and positive ions density
for the 6 hour period
after the last LYRA measurement
and their statistical properties
Charged components:
O+, O2
+, O4
+, N+, NO+, N2
+, H2O2
+, H3O+,O2
+∙N2, O2
+∙H2O, H3O+∙OH, NO+∙H2O, NO+∙(H2O)2, NO+∙(H2O)3,
NO+∙CO2, NO+∙N2, NO+∙H2O∙CO2, NO+∙H2O∙N2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, NO+∙(H2O)2∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2, H+∙(H2O)3,
H+∙(H2O)4, H+∙(H2O)5, H+∙(H2O)6, H+∙(H2O)7, H3O+∙CO2, H3O+∙N2, H+∙(H2O)2∙CO2, H+∙(H2O)2∙N2
e¯,O¯, O2¯, O3¯, O4¯, OH¯, CO3¯, CO4¯, NO2¯, NO3¯, HCO3¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH3¯,O2¯∙H2O, NO3¯∙H2O,
CO3¯∙H2O
Neutral components:
O3 , O* , O , O2
*, NO, HO2, ClO, NO2 , OH, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HONO3, ClONO2, Cl, N, N*, H2O2, H, HOCl,
Cl2, Cl2O2, HCl , Br, CH2O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO3, BrCl, CH3, CH3O2, CH3O, HCO, CH3O2H, H2O,
CFC-11, CFC-12, N2O, CH4, CO, H2, CBrF3
4D:
latitude, longitude, altitude, time

6. Key chemical
processes
Middle
Stratosphere
Mesosphere
O2 + hv (<240 nm) = O + O
O + O2 + M= O3 + M
Ozone production
H2O + hv (<200 nm) = OH + H
NO + hv = NO+ + e-
Ozone destruction by HOx
EPP:
Air + particles=
HOx + NOx +Ions + e-
Ozone destruction by HOx
Ozone destruction by NOx
Transport
GCR
SPE
EEP

7. Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in
Lyman- line from the 2-month mean.
Compiled by J. Lean

8. Electron density in the tropics
Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm-3).
Solar UV
SPE
GCR
IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model

9. Maps of the electron density at 75 km during
quiet time and Halloween storm.

10. Ozone changes due to Haloween storm SPE
Funke et al.,2010a

11. Funke et al.,2010b

12. SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004
Case study with CICM SOCOL: Increase SSI by ~5%
The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using
any of availble data sets

13. Comparison with observations:
Hydroxyl (75 km, tropical mean)
June, July and August 2004

14. Experimental setup for nowcasting
10-member model ensemble run
for the next 6 hours
Spectral solar irradiance
on model spectral grid
for the next 6 hours
Initial fields
for 10 ensemble
members
Model output
for the next 6 hours
Initialization fields
for the next period

15. Website
http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/
http://147.86.9.121/test/silver/:
10-11.2010
O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O
e-, total p+
T, den, GPH

16. Conclusions and outlook
•Model reasonable reproduces the resposnse of the middle atmosphere
to the variability of solar irradiance and particles
•Visualization software is ready for operations
•Validation should be extended to cover extra-polar ozone and electron
density
•LYRA and PREMOS solar irradiance data is not yet fully calibrated and at
the moment we do not have real-time SSI data to run the model in
nowcasting mode
•The extention of the model to cover ionosphere will make our results
more usable.
• Visualization software in climate mode can be use for educational and
outreach purposes.

17. PMOD/WRC, Davos
End of the presentation…
Thank you!!!