Leadership 2030 Keynote A

Leadership 2030
Preparing for the challenges of the future

February 2012

Leadership 2030:
How future megatrends will change our
working world

Agenda

1 Five megatrends that will change the future of leadership

2 What leaders will have to do differently

3 What the best leaders have always done and should continue
to do

© 2012 Hay Group. All rights reserved 3

What are megatrends?

Long- term transformational processes;

 Global scale
 Broad scope

 Dramatic impact

What are megatrends?

Long- term transformational processes

Time Reach Impact
Observable over Affect all regions and Fundamentally
decades, stakeholders; transform:
High degree of • governments • policies
probability: 15+years • individuals • society
into the future
• businesses • economy

Climate Change
Globalization Individualization
and
and Value
2.0 Environmental
Pluralism
Impacts

Digital Lifestyle Demographic
and Work Change

5 Megatrends

2009 2050

7
3

Number of Western industrial countries
among the 10 biggest economies

Megatrend 1: Globalisation 2.0

Key characteristics
 Complex interrelationships
 Shift in economic balance of power to Asia
 BRIC nations; rising source of capital,
consumer spend
 Rise of a global middle class (expanding
market, more consumers)
 „Re-regionalisation‟ and „glocalisation‟


Megatrend 1: Globalisation 2.0

Key Consequences

 Different paradigm
 Tension must be managed between “global”
and “local”

Leaders must be able to be successful in cross
cultural assignments


2006
Peak oil:
When the maximum rate of
global conventional crude oil extraction is reached

Megatrend 2: Climate Change and
Environmental Impacts

Key characteristics
 Rising CO2 emissions and temperatures
 Environmental problems and growing industrial
and residential waste
 Growing scarcity of strategic resources such
as water, minerals, metals and fossil fuels
 Inability of governments to agree on solutions,
regulations


Megatrend 2: Climate Change and
Environmental Impacts

Key consequences

 Greater environmental responsibility
and accountability
 Rising investment in clean
technology

Decision for leaders; wait for a crisis, or
head it off?


Megatrend 3: Individualisation and
Value Pluralism

Key characteristics
 Individualism as a global phenomenon
 Value pluralisms:
work-life balance
self fulfillment and self-expression
values-driven engagement
 Rise of the creative class


The employee life cycle

Hire Retire


The employee life cycle going forward

Move
Recruit Assess Selection Develop
on


The Protean Career
Hall, 1976

Traditional
Issue organizational Protean
career Career
Who’s in Organization Person
charge?

Core Advancement Freedom,
values growth

Degree of low
mobility high

Success Psychological
criteria Position, level level


Megatrend 3: Individualisation and
Value Pluralism

Key consequences
 Temporary loyalty
 New tools needed to show empathy
 Awareness of individual‟s role in social
networks critical

Leaders must understand how to lead


Megatrend 4: Digital lifestyle and work

Key characteristics

 New media conquer work and private life
 Individuals are „always on‟
 Information immediately accessible
 Counter / competing story to your narrative


Megatrend 4: Digital lifestyle and work

Key consequences:

 Public / private divide gets blurred
 Changing relationship networks: fewer
strong, more loose connections
 Power shift to digital natives
 Reliance on e-communication, virtual
communication

Leaders must demonstrate digital empathy through
narrative leadership


2005 2050
2010

15%
50 26%

Elderly (65+)
in the industrialised world

Megatrend 5: Demographic Change

Key characteristics
 World population growing and aging,
demographic imbalances
 Increasing migration; will drive cultural
diversity
 Aging society demands generational
leadership


Demographic change: Canada


Demographic change:


Megatrend 5: Demographic Change

Key consequences
 HUGE demand for leaders in China
 Aging European society has economic impact,
felt globally
 War for talent, brain drain, brain cycle


Your thoughts
What will change?
What will stay the same?

What will not change

Need for
Results Organization leaders

Relationships Security

What will change

Network Post-heroic
Savvy leaders

Building
institutions
that last

Individuals exist in networks


Third order relationships

1st 2nd 3rd


Case Study:
Before After ONA
 Overly connected people  Increased new product revenue 22%
 Invisible network silos  Decreased cost of poor quality 66%
 Undiscovered expertise  Decreased customer dissatisfaction 24%
 Cohesion of organization up 25%

U.K.
UK Angola
Angola

Nigeria Brazil
Brazil
Nigeria
Canada
Canada
Saudi U.S. Gulf of
Arabia U.S.
Saudi Arabia Mex
Mexico

Confidential - Not for Distribution

What will change

Network Post-heroic
Savvy leaders

Building
institutions
that last


What the best are already doing

Global
Leadership Going Native
Development

Matrix Leadership



 Matrix leadership
Bombardier, Staples: structure and courses

Coherent

Matrix
Structure

Incoherent

Matrix Incompetent Matrix Competent


Global
Leadership Going Native
Development

Matrix Leadership


Leadership 2030:
How many post-heroic leaders are possible in your
organisation?
How network savvy are your leaders?
Can your leaders create institutions built to last?

Questions?


Rewarding for collaboration

Does your current compensation If your compensation system does not
system reward for collaboration reward for collaboration, is collaboration
between senior executives and/or for reflected in non-reward decisions?
big cross-divisional company projects?

Participants seemed to have Somewhat surprisingly, the
different definitions for majority said collaboration is not
“collaboration”? reflected in non-reward decisions?


Case Study: Merger / Acquisition

Before After
 Separate Silos  Holistic information flow
 Little interaction across networks  No bottlenecks
 Individuals acting as bottleneck  Strengthened networks

Confidential - Not for Distribution

Leadership 2030 Keynote A

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