Presentation Opschoor for the Masterclass 'Impact of Climate Change' for Young Royal Haskoning, 17 september 2009, Rotterdam

1. Royal Haskoning Masterclass Klimaatverandering, Rotterdam, 17 sept 2009 Klimaatverandering en Maatschappelijke Reacties: economische aspecten Prof dr J.(Hans) B. Opschoor, VU en ISS [email_address]

2. Mondiale temperatuurverandering Ontleend aan: Duurzaam Nederland Monitor, 2009

3. Conceptueel kader Klimaatverandering (IPCC 2001)

4. RECENTE (2007) IPCC-POSITIES There is very high confidence that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. There is high agreement and much evidence that with current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change. Summary for Policymakers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report draft 16 november 2007

8. Mitigatieopties

9. Costs of Mitigative Action (... and inaction) But: mitigation benefits (welfare losses prevented) may be equivalent to 5 – 20% Warming threshold % drop global production IPCC Mitigation costs (% global production) Stern 2030 < ~2 ˚C <3 ?? < ~3 ˚C .6 ( .2 – 2.5 ) ~.3 ( -/- 3.4 – 3.9 ) 2050 < ~2 ˚C < 5.5 2 – 2.5 < ~3 ˚C 1.3 ( <0 – 4 ) ~1 ( -/- .1 – 3.5 ) >2100 < ~3 ˚C < ~2 ˚C ~1 ( -/- .1 – 3.5 ) ~2

10. De “CARBON-SPACE” en de verdeling ervan 80% mondiale reducties 2050 90% in 2050 Door Noord Rest voor Zuid?

12. Different keys for country/region shares in responsibilities (R) and capabilities (C) R1 R2 R3 C R&C1 R&C2 R&C3 R&C4 % GHG em 2000 % cum em 1850 -> t CO2 per cap 2000 kGDP per cap 2010 RCI’s (7) IVM AFI OXFAM 2000 RCI-1 Baer 2010 RCI-2 Baer 2030 USA 21 30 20 46 19-21 44 33 26 EU (25) 14 27 9 31 18-29 32 26 20 Japan 4 4 10 33 5-10 13 8 6 Russia 6 8 11 15 3-5 - 4 5 China 15 8 3 6 7-15 - 6 15 India 6 2 1 3 1-6 - 1 2 Brazil 3 1 2 9 2-4 - 2 2 S Africa 1 1 8 10 1-1 - 1 1 Annex I 52 76 11 31 51-70 100 77 61 DCs 48 24 2 5 30-49 0 23 39 World 100 100 4 10 100 100 100 100

18. IPCC 2007 over effecten klimaatverandering: de 2 0 -grens wetenschappelijk onderbouwd