Dr. Bruce Yandle presents his Quarterly Economic Update, paying special attention to economic indicators such as unemployment, interest rates, and GDP.
The document provides an economic overview of the United States in January 2010. It notes that consumer confidence and retail sales rebounded in late 2009, translating to strong GDP growth in Q4. However, it expects GDP growth to slow to 2-3% in 2010 as inventory contributions decrease and unemployment remains high. The housing market also showed some signs of stabilization but foreclosure and delinquency rates remained elevated due to high unemployment, suggesting further troubles for the housing sector.
This document discusses economic bubbles, providing examples and theories. It focuses on the United States and Malaysian housing bubbles. Different types of bubbles are defined, including market, commodity, stock, and credit bubbles. The document outlines the history of bubbles like the tulip mania and dot-com bubble. Social psychology theories for bubbles are explained, and the effects of bubbles discussed. The US housing bubble and its causes are analyzed, along with the impact on employment. Malaysia's housing bubble is also examined, outlining factors like foreign investment and government efforts to manage supply and demand.
Another Step in Canadian Federal Pension RepairEmily Jackson
The document summarizes Canada's trade performance in Q1 2014. Key points:
- Canada registered its first trade surplus since 2011, fueled by record energy trade surplus that offset a non-energy trade deficit.
- Exports and imports contracted in Q1 due to weather impacts and a trucker strike, but net exports are expected to contribute to GDP growth.
- The weaker Canadian dollar and stronger U.S. and European growth are expected to boost Canadian exports, especially energy and machinery, through 2015. Transportation constraints remain a challenge for some sectors like agriculture.
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for December 2010. It includes data on key economic indicators such as GDP, employment, home prices, consumer confidence, and inflation. The global economic recovery is continuing but remains weak, with only modest growth in the US. Interest rates will remain low through 2011 as the Fed maintains its policies. Businesses should take steps to manage interest rate and currency risks given the current volatility and economic uncertainties.
Ziad Abdelnour, Lebanese American author, trader and financier is President & CEO of Blackhawk Partners, Inc., a “private family office” that backs talented operating executives in growing their companies both organically and through acquisitions and trades physical commodities.
The document provides an economic overview of the United States in January 2010. It notes that consumer confidence and retail sales rebounded in late 2009, translating to strong GDP growth in Q4. However, it expects GDP growth to slow to 2-3% in 2010 as inventory contributions decrease and unemployment remains high. The housing market also showed some signs of stabilization but foreclosure and delinquency rates remained elevated due to high unemployment, suggesting further troubles for the housing sector.
This document discusses economic bubbles, providing examples and theories. It focuses on the United States and Malaysian housing bubbles. Different types of bubbles are defined, including market, commodity, stock, and credit bubbles. The document outlines the history of bubbles like the tulip mania and dot-com bubble. Social psychology theories for bubbles are explained, and the effects of bubbles discussed. The US housing bubble and its causes are analyzed, along with the impact on employment. Malaysia's housing bubble is also examined, outlining factors like foreign investment and government efforts to manage supply and demand.
Another Step in Canadian Federal Pension RepairEmily Jackson
The document summarizes Canada's trade performance in Q1 2014. Key points:
- Canada registered its first trade surplus since 2011, fueled by record energy trade surplus that offset a non-energy trade deficit.
- Exports and imports contracted in Q1 due to weather impacts and a trucker strike, but net exports are expected to contribute to GDP growth.
- The weaker Canadian dollar and stronger U.S. and European growth are expected to boost Canadian exports, especially energy and machinery, through 2015. Transportation constraints remain a challenge for some sectors like agriculture.
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for December 2010. It includes data on key economic indicators such as GDP, employment, home prices, consumer confidence, and inflation. The global economic recovery is continuing but remains weak, with only modest growth in the US. Interest rates will remain low through 2011 as the Fed maintains its policies. Businesses should take steps to manage interest rate and currency risks given the current volatility and economic uncertainties.
Ziad Abdelnour, Lebanese American author, trader and financier is President & CEO of Blackhawk Partners, Inc., a “private family office” that backs talented operating executives in growing their companies both organically and through acquisitions and trades physical commodities.
The document outlines three possible economic scenarios for 2014: a recession, dull growth under 2.5%, or stronger recovery over 3%. It analyzes factors that will influence the path of the economy such as employment, consumer spending, business confidence, and the tapering of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Overall it presents an optimistic outlook, finding signs of an improving job market, rebounding housing sector, and expanding manufacturing and service industry activity to support continued economic expansion.
This document discusses key economic indicators in the United States, including GDP, unemployment, federal debt, and stock market performance. It provides forecasts for 2012 GDP growth of around 2.3%, unemployment falling slightly to 8.2-8.7%, and moderate economic recovery continuing through the year, though European debt issues and slowing Chinese growth pose risks. Interest rates are expected to remain low to support the economy ahead of the presidential election. Reducing the federal debt ratio will require spending restraint and entitlement reforms.
The document discusses Japan's deteriorating financial situation, with a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 200%, the highest in the world besides Zimbabwe. This has led S&P to downgrade Japan's credit rating, raising concerns that other countries like the US could face similar downgrades if deficits are not reduced. Rising debt is a major global problem with nations having to pay higher interest rates, making deficits harder to manage.
The document summarizes the causes and effects of recession in India. It discusses that recessions are caused by a reduction in global demand for products and falling prices. The current recession was caused by reckless lending practices and the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US. In India, unemployment increased as many workers returned from Gulf countries. Industries like IT, finance, and real estate were negatively impacted. The government needs to cut taxes and increase spending to boost the economy.
How Will Inflation Affect Your Investments?InvestingTips
This document discusses how inflation affects investments. It explains that inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time. Investors need to earn returns higher than the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power. The large government spending to address the pandemic may cause inflation if excess money enters the economy faster than new goods and services. To fight inflation, the government raises interest rates to reduce money supply and slow economic growth. Investors should examine how different assets may perform during inflationary periods and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
We live in an interconnected world and geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Syria are bound to add volatility in global geopolitical environment and influence small and large economies around the world.
Further, the economic environment is undergoing an unusual shift, through unorthodox and new policy making in Japan, US and Europe.
In such a situation small sized GCC economies, which are also dependent heavily on commodity prices and transit of goods, should exercise caution, and not get swayed by the rosy pictures stock markets around the world are painting.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent economic events and the ongoing debt crisis. It summarizes that a last-minute deal avoided a US debt default, but S&P downgraded the US credit rating due to high debt levels. Global markets declined sharply on contagion fears in Europe and recession concerns. The document then analyzes how decades of accumulating consumer and government debt across developed nations has now come to a head, though the economy may stabilize over the long run.
The document summarizes the current state of the global economy and forecasts what may happen in the near future. It notes that the US is entering its deepest recession in decades due to the housing market crash and falling consumer spending. However, Asian economies are less dependent on US demand and continue growing rapidly, making Asia the main driver of global economic growth. While a US recession will impact Asia, the effects are expected to be smaller than in previous downturns due to Asia's growing domestic demand and trade with other regions. Over the long run, the economic shift towards Asia will further weaken the US dollar and American influence on the global economy.
The document summarizes key highlights for the global economic outlook in 2015. It states that global GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5% in 2015, supported by improving US demand, a stronger US dollar, and lower oil prices, which will benefit emerging economies. Monetary policy worldwide will also remain accommodative due to low inflation. However, stagnation in the Eurozone and China's economic rebalancing may continue to restrain global growth. The US economy is forecasted to see the best growth in a decade at 3% while Canada's growth is projected to slow to 2.2% due to lower oil prices.
The document discusses the likelihood of a recession in the US in 2012. It notes that odds of a recession are around 50% due to high unemployment and pressures from Europe. Several factors increase the risk of continued recession, including a weak housing market, tight credit, government spending cuts, high unemployment, a slowing Chinese economy, and inflation in key areas. The recession is predicted to hit around a 40% probability with unemployment rising above 10% and growth slowing to 0.5% in the first half of 2012. The downturn is expected to be short-lived but its effects will persist for years.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting economies. Prices may continue falling in the short term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though the
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting countries. Prices may continue falling in the short-term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though
Investment Opportunity In Indonesia 12 November 2011Adrian Teja
This document discusses several global and Indonesian economic issues:
1) It analyzes balance sheet recessions, quantitative easing, China's role, and the risk of a US Treasury bond bubble bursting.
2) It provides an overview of Indonesia's strong GDP growth drivers like demographics and domestic demand, noting Indonesia may become a safe haven.
3) It outlines Indonesia's "hot issues" for 2012 like demographic bonuses and efficiency-driven growth supporting continued strong capital inflows.
The document discusses 10 major themes for 2010 and beyond related to offsetting economic forces. Some of the key themes discussed include: 1) The US dollar may be neutral in early 2010 but weaken later in the year as US economic weakness persists relative to other economies. 2) Rising US government borrowing needs may be offset by increasing consumer savings and shifts to fixed income. 3) The need for the US to cut spending and raise taxes may be offset by the US simply printing more money to avoid difficult political choices.
Metropolitan Washington Lenders Conference 111408caesar7
The document summarizes the current state and outlook of the US economy, housing market, and mortgage markets. It finds that (1) foreclosure rates are rising across the nation as unemployment rises, (2) house price depreciation is slowing but risks remain, and (3) excess housing supply is declining in most areas. Looking forward, it expects a recession in late 2008 and early 2009 before a modest economic rebound, with housing sales flattening in 2008 before a gradual recovery in 2009-2010 as unemployment decreases and prices stabilize. Credit markets will remain constrained until 2009 when additional Fed and Treasury actions stabilize financial markets.
Our major goal is to help you achieve your academic goals. We are commited to helping you get top grades in your academic papers.We desire to help you come up with great essays that meet your lecturer's expectations.Contact us now at http://www.premiumessays.net/
The curious case of rising cost of falling inflationAshutosh Bhargava
The document discusses the risks posed by deflationary forces in the global economy due to below-trend growth and falling energy prices. It notes two main risks: 1) Low inflation hurts borrowers' ability to repay debts as nominal growth slows, increasing debt burdens as a percentage of GDP. This is seen in Greece and emerging markets. 2) Policymakers lose control of real interest rates and wages in a deflationary environment due to downward rigidities. The document then discusses how India has benefited from global deflation, with nominal GDP growth converging with real GDP growth, implying deflation. This convergence is having peculiar effects across sectors in India. The implications discussed are for investors, fiscal policymakers, and monetary policy
The Current Macroeconomic Situation, June 10, 2008: The Last Financial Crisis...Brad DeLong
The document discusses the 2008 financial crisis and actions taken by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to address it. It notes that the Fed had used over half of its Treasury holdings for liquidity operations and unleashed Fannie Mae and guaranteed investment bank debt. It predicts further declines in housing prices and the dollar against Asian currencies. Overall it analyzes the economic outlook and impact on asset prices.
Test-Driving Some Regulatory Process Reforms - Capitol Campus September 2013Mercatus Center
The scope and number of regulations continues to grow, but proof that problems are being solved remains elusive. Several reform efforts are focusing on ways to improve economic analysis so that agencies can make better decisions about when and how to use regulation for problem-solving. New research indicates several reforms that could have a positive impact.
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012Mercatus Center
The document discusses the projected growth of the global economy over the next 30 years, estimating that global GDP will double to $142 trillion by 2042. It notes that population growth will not eliminate per capita GDP gains. It then examines whether the US will remain connected to global economic growth or fall behind, noting problems like large federal budget deficits that could hamper growth. Overall the document provides an optimistic outlook for continued global economic expansion but notes challenges the US faces in maintaining its position.
Matthew Mitchell is a senior research fellow who authored a document on the pathology of privilege and the consequences of government favoritism. The document discusses how government favoritism towards certain groups, through subsidies, regulations, bailouts and other policies, can distort markets and the economy. It leads to anti-competitive behavior, lower quality and higher prices for consumers. These privilege-seeking activities are estimated to cost the U.S. economy $1-$3.5 trillion annually. The document advocates for policies that promote generality and limit discriminatory measures to address the issues caused by government favoritism.
The document summarizes key points from President's FY13 budget including:
- Spending, taxes, deficits and debt projections through 2022 with the budget reducing the deficit by $4.3 trillion since 2011
- Overview of proposed spending reductions in Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security as well as revenue increases from expiring tax cuts and limiting tax expenditures
- Comparison of U.S. government debt to other countries, showing debt is projected to remain high as a percentage of GDP through 2022
The document outlines three possible economic scenarios for 2014: a recession, dull growth under 2.5%, or stronger recovery over 3%. It analyzes factors that will influence the path of the economy such as employment, consumer spending, business confidence, and the tapering of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Overall it presents an optimistic outlook, finding signs of an improving job market, rebounding housing sector, and expanding manufacturing and service industry activity to support continued economic expansion.
This document discusses key economic indicators in the United States, including GDP, unemployment, federal debt, and stock market performance. It provides forecasts for 2012 GDP growth of around 2.3%, unemployment falling slightly to 8.2-8.7%, and moderate economic recovery continuing through the year, though European debt issues and slowing Chinese growth pose risks. Interest rates are expected to remain low to support the economy ahead of the presidential election. Reducing the federal debt ratio will require spending restraint and entitlement reforms.
The document discusses Japan's deteriorating financial situation, with a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 200%, the highest in the world besides Zimbabwe. This has led S&P to downgrade Japan's credit rating, raising concerns that other countries like the US could face similar downgrades if deficits are not reduced. Rising debt is a major global problem with nations having to pay higher interest rates, making deficits harder to manage.
The document summarizes the causes and effects of recession in India. It discusses that recessions are caused by a reduction in global demand for products and falling prices. The current recession was caused by reckless lending practices and the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the US. In India, unemployment increased as many workers returned from Gulf countries. Industries like IT, finance, and real estate were negatively impacted. The government needs to cut taxes and increase spending to boost the economy.
How Will Inflation Affect Your Investments?InvestingTips
This document discusses how inflation affects investments. It explains that inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time. Investors need to earn returns higher than the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power. The large government spending to address the pandemic may cause inflation if excess money enters the economy faster than new goods and services. To fight inflation, the government raises interest rates to reduce money supply and slow economic growth. Investors should examine how different assets may perform during inflationary periods and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
We live in an interconnected world and geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Syria are bound to add volatility in global geopolitical environment and influence small and large economies around the world.
Further, the economic environment is undergoing an unusual shift, through unorthodox and new policy making in Japan, US and Europe.
In such a situation small sized GCC economies, which are also dependent heavily on commodity prices and transit of goods, should exercise caution, and not get swayed by the rosy pictures stock markets around the world are painting.
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent economic events and the ongoing debt crisis. It summarizes that a last-minute deal avoided a US debt default, but S&P downgraded the US credit rating due to high debt levels. Global markets declined sharply on contagion fears in Europe and recession concerns. The document then analyzes how decades of accumulating consumer and government debt across developed nations has now come to a head, though the economy may stabilize over the long run.
The document summarizes the current state of the global economy and forecasts what may happen in the near future. It notes that the US is entering its deepest recession in decades due to the housing market crash and falling consumer spending. However, Asian economies are less dependent on US demand and continue growing rapidly, making Asia the main driver of global economic growth. While a US recession will impact Asia, the effects are expected to be smaller than in previous downturns due to Asia's growing domestic demand and trade with other regions. Over the long run, the economic shift towards Asia will further weaken the US dollar and American influence on the global economy.
The document summarizes key highlights for the global economic outlook in 2015. It states that global GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5% in 2015, supported by improving US demand, a stronger US dollar, and lower oil prices, which will benefit emerging economies. Monetary policy worldwide will also remain accommodative due to low inflation. However, stagnation in the Eurozone and China's economic rebalancing may continue to restrain global growth. The US economy is forecasted to see the best growth in a decade at 3% while Canada's growth is projected to slow to 2.2% due to lower oil prices.
The document discusses the likelihood of a recession in the US in 2012. It notes that odds of a recession are around 50% due to high unemployment and pressures from Europe. Several factors increase the risk of continued recession, including a weak housing market, tight credit, government spending cuts, high unemployment, a slowing Chinese economy, and inflation in key areas. The recession is predicted to hit around a 40% probability with unemployment rising above 10% and growth slowing to 0.5% in the first half of 2012. The downturn is expected to be short-lived but its effects will persist for years.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting economies. Prices may continue falling in the short term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though the
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting countries. Prices may continue falling in the short-term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though
Investment Opportunity In Indonesia 12 November 2011Adrian Teja
This document discusses several global and Indonesian economic issues:
1) It analyzes balance sheet recessions, quantitative easing, China's role, and the risk of a US Treasury bond bubble bursting.
2) It provides an overview of Indonesia's strong GDP growth drivers like demographics and domestic demand, noting Indonesia may become a safe haven.
3) It outlines Indonesia's "hot issues" for 2012 like demographic bonuses and efficiency-driven growth supporting continued strong capital inflows.
The document discusses 10 major themes for 2010 and beyond related to offsetting economic forces. Some of the key themes discussed include: 1) The US dollar may be neutral in early 2010 but weaken later in the year as US economic weakness persists relative to other economies. 2) Rising US government borrowing needs may be offset by increasing consumer savings and shifts to fixed income. 3) The need for the US to cut spending and raise taxes may be offset by the US simply printing more money to avoid difficult political choices.
Metropolitan Washington Lenders Conference 111408caesar7
The document summarizes the current state and outlook of the US economy, housing market, and mortgage markets. It finds that (1) foreclosure rates are rising across the nation as unemployment rises, (2) house price depreciation is slowing but risks remain, and (3) excess housing supply is declining in most areas. Looking forward, it expects a recession in late 2008 and early 2009 before a modest economic rebound, with housing sales flattening in 2008 before a gradual recovery in 2009-2010 as unemployment decreases and prices stabilize. Credit markets will remain constrained until 2009 when additional Fed and Treasury actions stabilize financial markets.
Our major goal is to help you achieve your academic goals. We are commited to helping you get top grades in your academic papers.We desire to help you come up with great essays that meet your lecturer's expectations.Contact us now at http://www.premiumessays.net/
The curious case of rising cost of falling inflationAshutosh Bhargava
The document discusses the risks posed by deflationary forces in the global economy due to below-trend growth and falling energy prices. It notes two main risks: 1) Low inflation hurts borrowers' ability to repay debts as nominal growth slows, increasing debt burdens as a percentage of GDP. This is seen in Greece and emerging markets. 2) Policymakers lose control of real interest rates and wages in a deflationary environment due to downward rigidities. The document then discusses how India has benefited from global deflation, with nominal GDP growth converging with real GDP growth, implying deflation. This convergence is having peculiar effects across sectors in India. The implications discussed are for investors, fiscal policymakers, and monetary policy
The Current Macroeconomic Situation, June 10, 2008: The Last Financial Crisis...Brad DeLong
The document discusses the 2008 financial crisis and actions taken by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to address it. It notes that the Fed had used over half of its Treasury holdings for liquidity operations and unleashed Fannie Mae and guaranteed investment bank debt. It predicts further declines in housing prices and the dollar against Asian currencies. Overall it analyzes the economic outlook and impact on asset prices.
Test-Driving Some Regulatory Process Reforms - Capitol Campus September 2013Mercatus Center
The scope and number of regulations continues to grow, but proof that problems are being solved remains elusive. Several reform efforts are focusing on ways to improve economic analysis so that agencies can make better decisions about when and how to use regulation for problem-solving. New research indicates several reforms that could have a positive impact.
Dr. Yandle's Quarterly Economic Update: March 2012Mercatus Center
The document discusses the projected growth of the global economy over the next 30 years, estimating that global GDP will double to $142 trillion by 2042. It notes that population growth will not eliminate per capita GDP gains. It then examines whether the US will remain connected to global economic growth or fall behind, noting problems like large federal budget deficits that could hamper growth. Overall the document provides an optimistic outlook for continued global economic expansion but notes challenges the US faces in maintaining its position.
Matthew Mitchell is a senior research fellow who authored a document on the pathology of privilege and the consequences of government favoritism. The document discusses how government favoritism towards certain groups, through subsidies, regulations, bailouts and other policies, can distort markets and the economy. It leads to anti-competitive behavior, lower quality and higher prices for consumers. These privilege-seeking activities are estimated to cost the U.S. economy $1-$3.5 trillion annually. The document advocates for policies that promote generality and limit discriminatory measures to address the issues caused by government favoritism.
The document summarizes key points from President's FY13 budget including:
- Spending, taxes, deficits and debt projections through 2022 with the budget reducing the deficit by $4.3 trillion since 2011
- Overview of proposed spending reductions in Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security as well as revenue increases from expiring tax cuts and limiting tax expenditures
- Comparison of U.S. government debt to other countries, showing debt is projected to remain high as a percentage of GDP through 2022
Ellig Public Interest Regulatory Advocacy 2006Mercatus Center
The document discusses identifying the public interest in policymaking. It notes that defining the public interest requires value judgments and there are imperfect processes for doing so. Specifically, it outlines that knowledge is dispersed, incentives matter, and policymakers face incentives like wealth transfers that can undermine the public interest. However, public interest commenters can help mitigate these problems by ensuring desired outcomes are defined and that tradeoffs as well as less restrictive alternatives are considered.
Regulation University: Beware of Inflated Benefits and Hidden CostsMercatus Center
The document discusses potential problems that can arise when conducting benefit-cost analyses (BCA) of regulations. It notes regulators may regulate based on anecdotes or untested theories rather than demonstrated problems, approach decisions with foregone conclusions rather than evaluating alternatives, ignore or hide regulatory costs, and inflate estimates of benefits. Common costs omitted include efficiency losses from taxes/subsidies and constraints on innovation. Accurately accounting for all costs is important for properly evaluating alternatives and informing future regulatory choices.
Mercatus scholar Keith Hall will explain what agencies miss in their employment impact analysis for regulation, and what implications that raises for policymakers concerned about the economic impact of regulation over the long-term.
During the months following the global recession, many economists (including ones from this organisation) discussed the possibility of a double dip recession. Between the European debt crisis and the US’s high unemployment rate, it seemed likely that the global economy would slip back into recession territory. However, with the exception of the US, recent global economic performance has been better than expected. Fiscal and monetary policy in most countries remains supportive of growth and although another global slowdown looks inevitable, a relapse into recession is unlikely. The Economist Intelligence Unit explains the likelihood of a double dip recesssion in this presentation.
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic trends in various regions including the US, Europe, China, and emerging markets. It also covers trends in several sectors. Key points:
- The US economy is in relatively good shape overall despite weakness in the oil industry. Unemployment is low, the housing market is strong, and capital investments are rising except in energy. However, the Fed is expected to delay raising rates until 2016 due to global growth concerns.
- The eurozone faces risks of deflation as inflation recently turned negative. Private consumption had driven growth but may decline if deflation persists. Core inflation remains positive and growth is expected to continue modestly.
- China's economy is slowing as the
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
The document summarizes recent economic data and sentiment regarding China. It notes that while exports are slowing due to global economic weakness, domestic consumption continues to grow and infrastructure investment may help offset declines in other areas. Recent data shows Chinese GDP growth slowing but not yet at dangerous levels. The outlook expects further slowing but growth still around 8% for 2012, which would not be disastrous. Risks remain from further weakness in Europe or the US hurting Chinese exports.
The newsletter discusses the growing economic divide in the US, with facts showing that the rich are getting richer while the middle class and poor are worse off. It argues the recovery reported in the news does not reflect most Americans' experiences. When the Federal Reserve stops stimulating the economy by buying bonds, interest rates will rise, which could trigger a recession worse than 2008 by hurting consumers and the housing/stock markets. The massive US debt also makes the economy vulnerable if interest rates return to historical levels.
The document discusses two key topics:
1) The housing market recovery is expected to continue through 2014, with existing home sales, new home sales, and housing starts all increasing in the coming years. Home prices are also forecasted to rise steadily.
2) However, the looming "fiscal cliff" poses a major risk to the economic recovery. If Congress fails to address large automatic spending cuts and tax increases, it could trigger a recession. The housing market outlook is dependent on resolving this issue and avoiding further limitations on mortgage credit availability.
The document provides a market outlook and forecast for 2013 by Timothy E. Burt, CFA.
The summary is:
1) Most global stock markets performed well in 2012, led by Germany and Japan, while the UK and Canada lagged.
2) The author believes the global economy will gradually improve in 2013, with stronger growth in the second half as issues in Europe and China are addressed.
3) The forecast is for US GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% and Canadian growth of 1.5-2.0% in 2013. US and Canadian stock markets are expected to rise 12-15% with the S&P 500 surpassing its 2007 high.
SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller Briefs Chamber Members on Economic Trends
Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Bank, gave the keynote address at the 2015 Economic Outlook Briefing presented by Town of Chapel Hill Economic Development, describing trends and the latest economic issues facing the nation and the region.
As SunTrust’s chief economist, Gregory Miller analyzes the U.S. and global economies and forecasts the U.S. national economy. He advises corporate and bank boards of directors, as well as making frequent presentations to SunTrust business and wealth management clients. He sits on committees charged with interest rate setting, corporate investment, and benefits policy. He is a policy advisor for Private Wealth and Corporate Investment Banking groups.
Mr. Miller comments frequently in business media, including CNBC News, Bloomberg News, Fox Business, Reuters, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Blue Chip Financial Forecast, and other local news media platforms.
In addition to Miller’s economic forecast, Chamber President & CEO Aaron Nelson presented the results of the Chamber’s annual Economic Conditions Survey, an online survey that gauges our community’s thoughts on the current economy based on Chamber member response.
For more information, visit carolinachamber.org or contact Kristen Smith at (919) 357-9988.
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The Chapel Hill-Carrboro (NC) Chamber of Commerce is a business leadership organization serving the greater Chapel Hill, NC community. The Chamber serves and supports the business interests of its more than 1,200 members and helps create a sustainable community where they can thrive. Chamber members employ more than 80,000 in the Research Triangle region.
On November 10, 2011, the chapter hosted Dr. Dick Stevie, Chief Economist for Duke Energy, and Dr. George Vredeveld, Alpaugh Professor of Economics at the University of Cincinnati and founder and Director of its Economics Center.
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
This document summarizes economic trends from September 2009. It discusses six factors driving economic growth: 1) massive stimulus spending, 2) businesses reversing purges, 3) rising confidence, 4) housing and auto industries stabilizing, 5) improving exports, and 6) stalled increases in mortgage rates and oil prices. It argues the recovery will continue surpassing expectations with 4% GDP growth. It also says the consumer's role is unclear and inflation will likely remain stable.
The document provides a seasonal market outlook and review of global markets in Q4 2014 and for the year as a whole. Key points:
- Global stock markets fell sharply in mid-December due to falling commodity prices but recovered by Christmas. The FTSE 100 ended 2014 down 2.7%.
- Mining stocks and food retailers struggled while utility companies performed well, benefiting from growing demand for income and declining rate expectations.
- Commodity prices are expected to remain weak in 2015 due to slowing demand from Europe and China and increased supply, particularly of oil from US shale production.
The document is a newsletter discussing the state of the US economy from the perspective of an economic analyst, Mike Lathigee. It summarizes that while official reports claim the economy is recovering, the reality is that inequality is growing as the rich get richer and the middle class and poor get poorer. Unemployment and other key economic indicators show most Americans are worse off than during the 2008 recession. It recommends investors increase their holdings of physical gold and silver to 10% of their portfolio as a hedge against potential economic troubles in the future.
The document is a presentation about the state of the economy during the Great Recession and recovery. It includes charts and graphs about GDP growth, unemployment rates, manufacturing jobs, and economic indicators. It discusses which countries and cities may drive future economic growth. It ends with potential scenarios for the economy over the next three months, with one predicting continued recovery, one a possible double-dip recession, and one a slow, uneven recovery.
- The document discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets and the fear that has gripped investors. While there are valid economic concerns, fear has become contagious and may be overstating the risks.
- The US economy has held up better than expected so far in 2016, with steady job growth and consumer spending. However, tightening financial conditions have led to declines in stock valuations.
- Central banks are again trying to ease financial conditions through further monetary stimulus in order to support the economy and stabilize markets, though investor faith in their actions may be waning.
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
Similar to March 2010 A Quarterly Economic Update (20)
ACA Has Worsened Medicaid's Structural ProblemsMercatus Center
The document summarizes evidence that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has exacerbated Medicaid's existing structural problems. It notes that ACA Medicaid expansion incentives have led to higher-than-expected enrollment and spending. States receive a higher federal matching rate for expansion enrollees, creating an incentive to increase fees and payments for their care while favoring them over traditional enrollees. Open-ended federal reimbursement also makes Medicaid difficult to cut. The document also finds higher spending per expansion enrollee, a proliferation of Medicaid waste, and a lack of clear health benefits from the expansion. It calls for Medicaid reform to reduce federal spending while preserving safety nets and giving states more flexibility and control over their programs.
Evaluating a Sluggish Economy with Bruce YandleMercatus Center
In the first half of 2016, the US economy skirted close to recession territory but so far has registered positive growth. What are the major forces that seem to be driving the slow-growth economy? Is the economy getting stronger? Or, will we hit recession territory before the end of the year?
The document discusses the 6 year anniversary of the Affordable Care Act and provides information on 2016 exchange enrollment, the makeup of the risk pool, and what has been learned. It notes that 12.7 million people signed up for exchange plans in 2016, slightly higher than the 11 million projected. However, the risk pool skewed older and poorer than expected. Many healthy and young individuals did not find the plans attractive without subsidies. The individual mandate also did not work as intended to increase coverage as many found ways to take advantage of ACA rules. Large attrition in enrollment occurred during 2016.
This document discusses several factors contributing to slower economic growth in the United States, including geographic differences, monetary policy, and regulatory uncertainty. It notes that real GDP growth has declined since 2000 and that unemployment rates varied widely by state from 2010. The document also examines how regulations can be influenced by interested parties and how targeting regulations to distribute benefits can impact economic performance.
This document discusses the advantages of targeting the growth rate of the money supply rather than interest rates. It lists advantages as not needing to know the money supply, inflation becoming less sensitive to short-run changes, monetary policy becoming more predictable, and less need to consider the real economy. The document also cites F.A. Hayek and Milton Friedman discussing how the money supply must change to offset movements in velocity to maintain monetary neutrality.
The Affordable Care Act fundamentally changed the landscape of the U.S. health care system. With more than five years since the law’s passage, questions remain about how to fix a system that remains broken despite recent reform efforts. Did the Affordable Care Act adequately reform a failing health system, or did that prescription only treat the symptoms of a much larger illness?
The document summarizes wireless spectrum policy in the United States in 2016 and discusses potential future policy directions. It provides an overview of spectrum characteristics, increasing demand but constrained supply, the history of spectrum policy, current federal and non-federal allocation and management, recent auctions that generated billions for the Treasury, and proposals to repurpose underutilized federal spectrum through incentive auctions, geographic sharing, and overlay license auctions. The goal is to increase commercial access and use of spectrum to spur innovation while balancing federal needs.
Buchanan Speaker Series: Education, Inequality, and IncentivesMercatus Center
The F. A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics welcomed Roland G. Fryer, Jr., the Henry Lee Professor of Economics at Harvard University and faculty director of the Education Innovation Laboratory, for the inaugural Buchanan Speaker Series event on “Education, Inequality, and Incentives.”
Modernizing Freight Rail Regulation: Recommendations from the TRB StudyMercatus Center
The document summarizes the key findings and recommendations from a TRB study on modernizing freight rail regulation. It discusses how the Staggers Act of 1980 partially deregulated the freight rail industry and the positive effects this had. However, it notes some lingering issues like rate regulation, switching rules, and merger approvals. The speaker recommends using rate benchmarking models based on competitive markets to identify rates qualifying for arbitration. The proposal also suggests streamlining switching, service complaints, and merger processes while reviewing rail industry data collection.
Modernizing the SSDI Eligibility Criteria: Trends in Demographics and Labor M...Mercatus Center
This document discusses how changes in demographics and labor markets affect eligibility criteria for Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). It notes that SSDI outlays and participation have doubled in recent decades. While the aging workforce partly explains this, disability rates have remained flat. The document also discusses how a growing share of SSDI awards are decided based on vocational factors like age, education, and experience rather than medical conditions alone. However, it argues these vocational criteria are outdated and no longer reflect today's labor market which has shifted away from manual work to more sedentary, service jobs. The document recommends eliminating or modifying vocational criteria in SSDI eligibility determinations to better align with modern labor market realities.
How Can Policymakers and Regulators Better Engage the Internet of Things? Mercatus Center
The world today is seemingly always plugged into the Internet and technologies are constantly sharing data about our personal and professional lives. Device connectivity is on an upward trend with Cisco estimating that 50 billion devices will be connected to the Internet by 2020. Collection and data sharing by these devices introduces a host of new vulnerabilities, raising concerns about safety, security, and privacy for policymakers and regulators.
The document discusses options for addressing increasing cyber attacks, particularly against the US Federal government. It notes several existing information sharing programs between government and private sectors. While a new program called CISA is proposed, the document questions if another program is needed given existing overlap. Instead, it suggests prioritizing security over surveillance, responsibly disclosing vulnerabilities, enforcing two-factor authentication, limiting contractors, and allowing security research to strengthen defenses long-term through a strategic, systematic approach rather than an urgent "sprint".
Tools for Tracking the Economic Impact of LegislationMercatus Center
Laws passed by Congress impact the economy, but Congress has no systematic way to comprehensively track and assess the economic impact of legislative actions. This is especially difficult when laws empower federal agencies to regulate. While the current budget process scores and tracks the economic impact of spending and taxes, it does not account for the economic consequences of regulation.
The Sharing Economy: Perspectives on Policies in the New EconomyMercatus Center
The document discusses the sharing economy, how it works, and implications for policymakers. It explains that the sharing economy involves taking assets one owns and making them available to others for a fee via platforms like Uber and Airbnb. This allows individuals to earn income from underutilized assets. However, it poses challenges for policymakers accustomed to traditional employment models. The document argues that policymakers must adapt regulations to 21st century sharing platforms rather than try to apply outdated 20th century frameworks.
Sustaining Surface Transportation: Overview of the Highway Trust Fund and Ide...Mercatus Center
This document summarizes a presentation about reforming the federal highway transportation funding system. It outlines that the presentation covers:
1) The basics of the current federal Highway Trust Fund and issues with disconnect between revenues and system performance.
2) Areas for improvement like strategies to reduce congestion being inadequate and more efficient allocation of funds.
3) Options for reform like tolls, public-private partnerships, and charging drivers for vehicle miles traveled with considerations for implementing VMT charges.
Stephen C. Goss Presentation for Mercatus Center SSDI PanelMercatus Center
The Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund’s projected 2016 depletion will require Congress to act soon to prevent large, sudden benefit cuts.
Experts on both sides of the aisle have noted that a “quick fix” of simply shifting payroll taxes from Social Security’s much larger retirement trust fund (OASI) into DI, without further reform, could cost Congress its last chance to solve Social Security’s broader financing problems before it is too late. What more responsible reform options are available?
The Mercatus Center and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosted a discussion on May 12 on how best to respond to SSDI’s financing crisis.
David Stapleton Presentation for Mercatus Center SSDI PanelMercatus Center
The Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund’s projected 2016 depletion will require Congress to act soon to prevent large, sudden benefit cuts.
Experts on both sides of the aisle have noted that a “quick fix” of simply shifting payroll taxes from Social Security’s much larger retirement trust fund (OASI) into DI, without further reform, could cost Congress its last chance to solve Social Security’s broader financing problems before it is too late. What more responsible reform options are available?
The Mercatus Center and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosted a discussion on May 12 on how best to respond to SSDI’s financing crisis.
Jason J. Fichtner Presentation for Mercatus Center SSDI PanelMercatus Center
The Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund’s projected 2016 depletion will require Congress to act soon to prevent large, sudden benefit cuts.
Experts on both sides of the aisle have noted that a “quick fix” of simply shifting payroll taxes from Social Security’s much larger retirement trust fund (OASI) into DI, without further reform, could cost Congress its last chance to solve Social Security’s broader financing problems before it is too late. What more responsible reform options are available?
The Mercatus Center and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosted a discussion on May 12 on how best to respond to SSDI’s financing crisis.
Jason J. Fichtner Presentation for Mercatus Center SSDI Panel
March 2010 A Quarterly Economic Update
1. The 2010 Economy and the Recovery What are the indicators telling us? Will this recovery look like the previous ones? Banks and commercial lending. Democracy in Deficit: Does it really matter? Patterns across the nation Employment, GDP Growth, Voting with their feet. Bottom line.
9. How Bad is the Commercial Real Estate Problem? The commercial real estate (CRE) sector has contributed to an upsurge of bank failures, following sharp contraction in the recession. The value of commercial and office construction totalled almost $140 billion in 2008. By September 2009, the value was $90 billion. On June 30, 2009, outstanding CRE debt was $3.5 trillion. About half was held by banks and thrifts. The other half by investors. In 2009, nonperforming CRE loans as a share of bank capital grew from 4.47% in September 2008, to 7.4% in September 2009. Within banking, community banks have 30.7% of their loans in CRE, compared to 12.1% for the larger banks (those with more than $100 billion in assets). For all community banks nationwide, nonperforming CRE loans make up 6.5% of total risk-based capital. The risk-based capital of community banks receiving TARP funds was 11.7%. Banks, on average, can sustain the CRE losses, but a large number of smaller banks cannot. Some $500 billion in CRE loans will be maturing over the next few years. This is the moment of truth. Can the borrowers refinance? Source: The Regional Economist. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, January 2010. 10-11.
10.
11. Viral Archarya. Systemic risk and deposit insurance. September 4, 2009. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3941
12. Democracy in Deficit In 1977, Nobel Laureate James Buchanan and his colleague Richard Wagner threw out Keynesian assumptions and wrote about fiscal policy on a clean slate. Why, they asked, are democracies systematically in deficit? The answer: Political incentives. Let’s consider some data.
23. 2010 Outlook GDP growth will range from 2.2% to 2.5% for both 2010 and 2011. The unemployment rate will average 9.5% for 2010 and 8.4% for 2011. Inflation will remain low, perhaps at 1% in 2010. Interest rates will remain tame, with perhaps a 100 basis point increase at the long end of the yield curve by the end of the year. There are four hazards or ghosts from the past that may disturb the outlook. Fear-driven increases in personal savings, which means rebuilding consumer net worth but further reductions in retail sales. Rising energy prices. A potential for massive inflation or credit market manipulation by the Fed to avoid it. Government entanglement in the economy that regulates and otherwise limits economic freedom.
24. Next Three Months? Yes, it is a caterpillar economy, but a solid growth base is showing up in manufacturing. Housing markets are firming, and retail sales are picking up a wee bit. GDP growth over the next quarter should exceed 2%. But unemployment will rise above 10.5% We should keep our money in the market…, that is , if we have any left. The Dow will rise above 10,900. 14 2. Caterpillar be damned. A double-dip is showing up. Stimulus comes and goes, but there is nothing to offset bankruptcies and defaults in the commercial property market. First and second quarter GDP growth will likely trend downward to less than 2%, and the Dow, still looking for profits, will be locked at about 10,500. Unemployment? Get ready to see 11%. 15 3. Everyone knew that China was keeping us afloat, but few wanted to admit it. Now that our great benefactor has decided to put a lid on GDP growth, there will be less Chinese demand for stuff we produce (they love our agricultural products) and less surplus there that needs to be invested in good old U.S. bonds. You guessed it. Interest rates will rise. The U.S. economy will get a case of the slows, and our GDP growth will begin to look awfully pale. Now, this won’t happen overnight, but the ugly edge will start showing up in March or April. Look for GDP growth here to get clamped at around 1.5%. Unemployment to head toward 12%, and the Dow to start looking for 9,800. 4
25. Next Three Months? Whew!! I feel like we getting out of the woods. But that’s not saying we are on the Yellow Brick Road, at least not yet. By June unemployment should have peaked, perhaps at 10.8 percent and then be in the 9.5% range Retail Sales will be nudging up. Housing will be firmer. But the price of oil will be nudging up too. Inflation, oil included, will be troublesome. 1Q2010 GDP growth will surprise the pessimists. It will be above 2.5%. Dow –Jones? I am still counting on 10,900 by June. 2. I am not ready to join the ranks of raving optimists yet. I’m not even sure there is a Yellow Brick Road any more. As they say, the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off to save energy. That said, I think we will see the expected pale 2.0-2.5% GDP growth in 1Q2010. The unemployment rate will be hanging at 10.5 percent. Bank lending will still be in the doldrums. In short, the economy will still be in the pits, just going nowhere.